Mariners agree Nelson Cruz 4Yrs/57M

[Laika]

I was trying to find a body to body comparison, he popped in my head. Not talent to talent I guess.

 

I just don't like the idea of giving up assets for a glass man. An outfielder in his prime age shouldn't have that many injuries.

 

Past injury rate does predict future injury rate to some extent, but I think people drastically overstate that effect.

 

What you see if this type of categorical analysis - talented players like Lawrie and Saunders become "would not acquire" guys because they are "made of glass".

 

That's not an intelligent way of approaching it. If you think Saunders will miss 10% more time than an average LF due to injury, then apply that to his reasonable projections (which already include past playing time and this injury risk, btw), adjust his value, and make a rational decision.

 

2.0 WAR in 120 GP is better than 1.5 WAR in 162 GP (unless your backup OF is much worse than replacement level).

[Stangstag]

Would anyone be willing to entertain going after both Ackley and Saunders at the cost of…. Jose?

 

Lets say you get Ackley and Saunders. You still need more value back to justify dealing Jose, so what if you add another piece like Iwakuma? You get back a front of the rotation starter on a 1 year deal while filling two needs while being able to still re-sign Melky for LF.

 

Reyes? Sure i'd do that in a heartbeat. Bautista? No, you'd have to be f***ing mental to make that trade.

[Governator]

Past injury rate does predict future injury rate to some extent, but I think people drastically overstate that effect.

 

What you see if this type of categorical analysis - talented players like Lawrie and Saunders become "would not acquire" guys because they are "made of glass".

 

That's not an intelligent way of approaching it. If you think Saunders will miss 10% more time than an average LF due to injury, then apply that to his reasonable projections (which already include past playing time and this injury risk, btw), adjust his value, and make a rational decision.

 

2.0 WAR in 120 GP is better than 1.5 WAR in 162 GP (unless your backup OF is much worse than replacement level).

 

 

Well since Steamer suggests he's going to make the most plate appearances of his professional career after a dismal attempt at staying healthy, then I don't think it takes injuries in to that much of consideration. I'm not discounting Saunders ability but the hassle of constantly replacing him could be painstaking, even if we say just stick Pillar or Dirks there in between. If this however is the difference of being able to acquire a front of the rotation arm I'm all for it.

[BlueRocky]

market now set for Melky. Something less than $14.25m AAV

 

Melky: so Alex, about that deal we had two weeks ago..

AA: what deal?

[Laika]

Melky is worth more than Cruz. If Cruz gets 4/$57, Melky should get about that + a year. Not the he necessarily will...

[GreekFatAss]

Reyes? Sure i'd do that in a heartbeat. Bautista? No, you'd have to be f***ing mental to make that trade.

 

According to Steamer 2015 projections, you acquire 7.4 WAR for 5.4 from Bautista.

[Laika]

According to Steamer 2015 projections, you acquire 7.4 WAR for 5.4 from Bautista.

 

Not really though, when you consider the incumbents.

 

Ackley ~2 = Travis ~2 (0)

Kuma ~3 > Happ ~1.5 (+1.5)

Bautista ~5.5 > Saunders ~2.5 (-3)

 

Team trades a star and gets worse.

[GreekFatAss]

Not to mention that Jose is a year removed from 2 wrist injuries. Wouldn't it make sense to hedge your bets by spreading the injury risk out among 3 players instead of relying on 1 to stay healthy as a 34 year old?

[Westfan]

Saunders would be a huge upgrade in left but I don't see how we match up with the Mariners. They would need a right fielder.

Can AA pull off another 3 team trade involving Cincy,s Bruce.

[Ziggyy108]

Saunders would be a huge upgrade in left but I don't see how we match up with the Mariners. They would need a right fielder.

Can AA pull off another 3 team trade involving Cincy,s Bruce.

 

M's need some pitching depth as well.

 

Could see Dickey/Happ and maybe even Estrada being used in some sort of trade for Saunders .....

[RealAccountant]

Melky is worth more than Cruz. If Cruz gets 4/$57, Melky should get about that + a year. Not the he necessarily will...

 

He really isn't. He is worth less.

[RealAccountant]

Not to mention that Jose is a year removed from 2 wrist injuries. Wouldn't it make sense to hedge your bets by spreading the injury risk out among 3 players instead of relying on 1 to stay healthy as a 34 year old?

 

Let's give up a premier player for two mediocre ones because WAR is the same

[RealAccountant]

Not really though, when you consider the incumbents.

 

Ackley ~2 = Travis ~2 (0)

Kuma ~3 > Happ ~1.5 (+1.5)

Bautista ~5.5 > Saunders ~2.5 (-3)

 

Team trades a star and gets worse.

 

Bautista is the heart of this team

[jays_fever]

The Mariners sign another DH type to just stick somewhere. Jack Z has easily become the GM i despise the most..just a complete tool

[Terminator]

Lol Morosi says they need another OF?

 

 

Morosi is the worst baseball writer out there IMO. I had to stop following him because his tweets are so incredibly annoying.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

How close? To seattle Happ,Navarro and Reyes! Plus 10-15 mill

 

For Saunders, Ackley and ss chris Taylor.

 

Adds only 17 mill -12 mill to thier payroll and saves us the same !

[Mikeleelop]

Again you can't throw our castaways or spare parts in every trade and expect something back of value

[Governator]

Again you can't throw our castaways or spare parts in every trade and expect something back of value

 

but its JOSE FREAKIN REYES

[Mikeleelop]

but its JOSE FREAKIN REYES

 

Lol

[L54]

How close? To seattle Happ,Navarro and Reyes! Plus 10-15 mill

 

For Saunders, Ackley and ss chris Taylor.

 

Adds only 17 mill -12 mill to thier payroll and saves us the same !

 

Not even remotely.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Not even remotely.

 

Care to expand or explain your stance?

Reyes is upgrade to thier lineup! Happ might be a above average 5th starter in that big ass hard to hit home runs park!

Navarro is a good back up catcher and could DH as well for them!

 

If we drop ackley? Or Dangle a ousana,Castro better?

[Angrioter]

How close? To seattle Happ,Navarro and Reyes! Plus 10-15 mill

 

For Saunders, Ackley and ss chris Taylor.

 

Adds only 17 mill -12 mill to thier payroll and saves us the same !

 

chris Taylor suxxx brotha

[GD]

Care to expand or explain your stance?

Reyes is upgrade to thier lineup! Happ might be a above average 5th starter in that big ass hard to hit home runs park!

Navarro is a good back up catcher and could DH as well for them!

 

If we drop ackley? Or Dangle a ousana,Castro better?

 

You.

Cannot.

Give.

s***.

And.

Get.

Quality.

 

This has been said at least 10+ times. "Might be an above average 5th starter" "Good backup catcher" s***. 22M average shortstop s***. You're peddling s***.

[L54]

Care to expand or explain your stance?

Reyes is upgrade to thier lineup! Happ might be a above average 5th starter in that big ass hard to hit home runs park!

Navarro is a good back up catcher and could DH as well for them!

 

If we drop ackley? Or Dangle a ousana,Castro better?

 

It doesn't really make sense for either team. Happ is probably a 5th starter for them. Why would they want to pay Navarro 5 mil to be the back up? Why would the Jays want to pay Reyes 15 million to be SEA's SS, and replace him with Chris Taylor?

 

Edit: exactly what GD and everyone else said many of times. If a trade doesn't create dialogue, it's likely not fair.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

f*** fair, just do! Lol

[GD]

f*** fair, just do! Lol

 

Sigh.