Jay Bruce

[Jimcanuck]

He also lost his stuff after the most recent TJS. Fastball is more 91 than 95 now.

 

Should be able to ramp it up in short outings, a la D-Mac

[burlingtonbandit]

Should be able to ramp it up in short outings, a la D-Mac

 

He hasn't though..Ks are way down as well. In his brief stint I wasn't really impressed either. Stuff looked pretty meh.

[vanland]

So now Steamer is gospel? Ok.

 

Bruce tore meniscus in his knee and had surgery in May. Could conceivably have fudged his swing and sent his season down the tubes.

 

Maybe he'd cost less than Sanchez. I dunno.

 

 

bruce's grandpa was sick then died. after the bereavement period his numbers started to improve. kthanksbye

[z3r0s]

pass if the price is Sanchez. I believe in him.

[Spanky99]

bruce's grandpa was sick then died. after the bereavement period his numbers started to improve. kthanksbye

 

lol...

 

I SAID GOOD DAY!!

[43211234]

I'm still loathe to move Sanchez. With that groundball profile and short stride putting him in great fielding position, I think he'll consistently outperform peripherals that are based on his K and BB numbers. I want to give him another year to make it as a starter.

[TwistedLogic]

Bruce has always been a good player, but he was trash in every facet of the game last year. Im usually high on buy-low candidates in situations like that, but at his price tag, there's no room for error there. It's not a guy going through arb like Escobar and Rasmus were, he costs $12.5M, too much for a reclamation project. And I think it's crazy to offer Sanchez for him. Not because I have any great attachment to Sanchez, but I feel like if you're going to deal him, you can probably get something better than a guy coming off a -1 win season with a price tag that high.

 

Besides, factoring in the payroll differences between Sanchez and Bruce, I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez is more valuable than Bruce next year, even out of the pen.

[o2cui2i]

We are going to need Sanchez going forward. Getting Martin as a FA that can truly help our pitching and Defense is a huge plus and is even bigger because we didn't have to give up any players.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Bruce has always been a good player, but he was trash in every facet of the game last year. Im usually high on buy-low candidates in situations like that, but at his price tag, there's no room for error there. It's not a guy going through arb like Escobar and Rasmus were, he costs $12.5M, too much for a reclamation project. And I think it's crazy to offer Sanchez for him. Not because I have any great attachment to Sanchez, but I feel like if you're going to deal him, you can probably get something better than a guy coming off a -1 win season with a price tag that high.

 

Besides, factoring in the payroll differences between Sanchez and Bruce, I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez is more valuable than Bruce next year, even out of the pen.

 

The Jays need to take some risks. Bruce has more potential to put up a huge season than any hitter in FA except Cruz who is about 6 years older.

[Laika]

The amount of debate on both sides of this affirms my belief that if a trade were to happen, Sanchez for Bruce is a pretty realistic scenario.

[Angrioter]

The amount of debate on both sides of this affirms my belief that if a trade were to happen, Sanchez for Bruce is a pretty realistic scenario.

 

Sanchez for 3 years of Bruce? - I don't think so. Maybe Stroman or Norris

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Sanchez for 3 years of Bruce? - I don't think so. Maybe Stroman or Norris

 

Norris plus two prospects. I love both Sanchez and Stroman. I don't want them to go for almost anything. I think Bruce would kick ass in LF. Or RF after 2015.

[Angrioter]

Norris plus two prospects. I love both Sanchez and Stroman. I don't want them to go for almost anything. I think Bruce would kick ass in LF. Or RF after 2015.

 

Stroman, Norris, Hutchison better pitchers than Sanchez.

 

watch out Graveman guy.

[saskjayfan]

Inability to control his pitches over more than 3 innings.

 

 

So a player's body of work from age 17 to 21 should define him for the rest of his career..lol. The minors are about finding yourself. You work on mechanics, your approach, you mentally learn the how to handle the game. I remember AA talking about Sanchez making some minor mechanical changes at Buffalo at the end of June before he ever came up. After that Sanchez had 2 starts where he was better and 2 relief appearances and then was called up.

 

You can try and teach a kid to throw a pitch, but you can't teach a kid to throw the ball 99 miles an hour with movement. Players progress their games at different rates. If you can only look at stats, I'm sure many of you would have advised trading Jeter when at the age of 21 his offensive numbers dipped and he committed 29 errors in the minors.

Edited November 22, 2014 by saskjayfan

[TwistedLogic]

So a player's body of work from age 17 to 21 should define him for the rest of his career..lol. The minors are about finding yourself. You work on mechanics, your approach, you mental learn the how to handle the game. I remember AA talking about Sanchez making some minor mechanical changes at Buffalo at the end of June before he ever came up. After that Sanchez had 2 starts where he was better and 2 relief appearances and then was called up.

 

You can try and teach a kid to throw a pitch, but you can't teach a kid to throw the ball 99 miles an hour with movement. Players progress their games at different rates. If you can only look at stats, I'm sure many of you would have advised trading Jeter when at the age of 21 his offensive numbers dipped and he committed 29 errors in the minors.

 

And Lawrie was pegged to be an atrocious defender prior to his callup. lol.

[Key22]

Did people here actually watch Sanchez pitch last year,

 

I don't get it - 98mph with heavy movement and he threw secondary pitches on the corners and was getting soft groundballs in numbers. Many a hard thrower have serious control problems at the start of their careers - Randy Johnson walked 6 a game for the first 4 years of his career and led the league in walks three years in a row. He turned out pretty good and I think the GM who trades him for Jay Bruce would be lynched by his fans.

 

Not saying Sanchez will be the next Johnson but 98mph with movement and secondary stuff 33 innings (27ks) and he gave up 14 hits 65.9% ground ball rate (albeit a very small sample size). Minor league numbers - well minor league umpires and poor "pitch framing catchers" don't help the walks - cause if those catchers were any good at pitch framing they'd make $82 million over 5 years!!!

 

Not saying he's untradeable but 22 year olds throwing 97-99mph with movement and getting guys to pound the ball into the ground or strike-out who walked 5 per 9 (Johnson was in the 6-7 per game many years at the MLB level) can get away with it when no one can hit them. Sanchez is better than Johnson on the walk front early on so far. I remember everyone wanting to trade Halladay because in his first two years he walked 4.8 and 5.6 per 9. He was an overrated bum who was most definitely going to be a complete bust. Worse Halladay only struck out 4.9 and 5.9 per nine over those 2 years and gave up way more hits than innings pitched and had over 1.57 and 2.2 WHIP. Halladay STUNK in the majors at 22/23. Sanchez at 22 made batters look foolish out there.

 

If they get his control in check - he could be one sick guy. Then again we went down a similar road with Kyle Drabek -97mph with sick movement and no control. High risk - potentially massive reward.

 

Trade that potential high reward for a negative WAR outfielder with mediocre OBP who hits homers - Colby Rasmus but with worse defense. And to have to pay him over $12 million. The conversation would start with prospects not in our top 20

[Key22]

I think the Jays would do better by keeping Sanchez and signing Torii Hunter (17 homers last year and a .765 OPS) 2.7 and 2.2 oWAR and a little bit negative in CF but in LF that could jump to be league average or better. He's 39 and still performs well and might even be worth a 2 year deal where most teams will only offer him one. 2/28 might out bid the field. Torii's body looks to hold out at 39 and 2 years over Melky at 4-5years at 32. I mean Torii was an all-star in 2013 at 37 years old. He also has the "playoff experience" that AA seems to be considering. A good stop gap measure.

[TwistedLogic]

LaRoche at 2/25 would probably have given you exactly what you'd be looking for in Bruce, without the prospect cost. Was also coming off a better season, and would probably have been a bigger upgrade at his position to boot (LaRoche over Smoak vs Bruce over Dirks).

[Key22]

LaRoche at 2/25 would probably have given you exactly what you'd be looking for in Bruce, without the prospect cost. Was also coming off a better season, and would probably have been a bigger upgrade at his position to boot (LaRoche over Smoak vs Bruce over Dirks).

 

I think the big thing to consider with all the free agents is who is willing to actually come here. We landed the Canadian free agent but it STILL took the extra year that no one else would give him. So we can barely attract Canadians let alone Americans. Every time any of us reads about a trade target with a limited no trade clause - Toronto seems to be on every single one of them - so that would be true if they were free agents - anybody except Toronto and a few other places.

 

I agree with you - try to land the free agents who don't cost prospects or draft picks. But we always have to overpay in years and dollars. Fine for the first three years but at the end it's going to look a bit ugly - though Martin is okay because other teams would offer him 4 years.

 

Getting rid of Rasmus, Gose, and Lind - (deer in headlights sort of players) is virtually addition by subtraction.

 

I think Hunter is the answer in left if he's willing to come to Toronto. Aoki is 33 in January and he was a negative defensive value in left and has no power. Andy Dirks is better defensively and is 4 years younger with more bat potential.

[TwistedLogic]

I think the big thing to consider with all the free agents is who is willing to actually come here. We landed the Canadian free agent but it STILL took the extra year that no one else would give him. So we can barely attract Canadians let alone Americans. Every time any of us reads about a trade target with a limited no trade clause - Toronto seems to be on every single one of them - so that would be true if they were free agents - anybody except Toronto and a few other places.

 

I agree with you - try to land the free agents who don't cost prospects or draft picks. But we always have to overpay in years and dollars. Fine for the first three years but at the end it's going to look a bit ugly - though Martin is okay because other teams would offer him 4 years.

 

Getting rid of Rasmus, Gose, and Lind - (deer in headlights sort of players) is virtually addition by subtraction.

 

I think Hunter is the answer in left if he's willing to come to Toronto. Aoki is 33 in January and he was a negative defensive value in left and has no power. Andy Dirks is better defensively and is 4 years younger with more bat potential.

 

I would very much rather go with Dirks and Pillar as opposed to paying Hunter 10M.

 

And like you said in your post, people don't like coming to Toronto; Hunter is one of the players that likes Toronto the least. He has a strong dislike for playing on turf, and he likened the Rogers center field to "running in sand".

[Laika]

LaRoche at 2/25 would probably have given you exactly what you'd be looking for in Bruce, without the prospect cost. Was also coming off a better season, and would probably have been a bigger upgrade at his position to boot (LaRoche over Smoak vs Bruce over Dirks).

 

LaRoche is 35 and has less career fWAR than 27 year old Bruce.

[Laika]

I don't get it - 98mph with heavy movement and he threw secondary pitches on the corners and was getting soft groundballs in numbers. Many a hard thrower have serious control problems at the start of their careers - Randy Johnson walked 6 a game for the first 4 years of his career and led the league in walks three years in a row. He turned out pretty good and I think the GM who trades him for Jay Bruce would be lynched by his fans.

 

Not saying Sanchez will be the next Johnson but 98mph with movement and secondary stuff 33 innings (27ks) and he gave up 14 hits 65.9% ground ball rate (albeit a very small sample size). Minor league numbers - well minor league umpires and poor "pitch framing catchers" don't help the walks - cause if those catchers were any good at pitch framing they'd make $82 million over 5 years!!!

 

Not saying he's untradeable but 22 year olds throwing 97-99mph with movement and getting guys to pound the ball into the ground or strike-out who walked 5 per 9 (Johnson was in the 6-7 per game many years at the MLB level) can get away with it when no one can hit them. Sanchez is better than Johnson on the walk front early on so far. I remember everyone wanting to trade Halladay because in his first two years he walked 4.8 and 5.6 per 9. He was an overrated bum who was most definitely going to be a complete bust. Worse Halladay only struck out 4.9 and 5.9 per nine over those 2 years and gave up way more hits than innings pitched and had over 1.57 and 2.2 WHIP. Halladay STUNK in the majors at 22/23. Sanchez at 22 made batters look foolish out there.

 

If they get his control in check - he could be one sick guy. Then again we went down a similar road with Kyle Drabek -97mph with sick movement and no control. High risk - potentially massive reward.

 

Trade that potential high reward for a negative WAR outfielder with mediocre OBP who hits homers - Colby Rasmus but with worse defense. And to have to pay him over $12 million. The conversation would start with prospects not in our top 20

 

It's pretty lazy/easy to just comp Randy Johnson for every prospect that can't throw enough strikes as a starter. How about we look at the entire population instead of the absolute, best case, 1/10000 scenario?

 

Forget about Bruce and just focus on selling Sanchez right now. If you can find a GM who's dumb enough to even think of a Randy Johnson esque development path, you shove Sanchez into his pocket in a second and walk away with the profit.

 

And to be completely fair here I am a Sanchez fan. But TINSTAAPP.

[SAAviour]

In my opinion the greater risk is trading Sanchez then holding onto him ala Drabek and watching him flop. I'd take my chances with an arm like that over a struggling outfielder for 12 mil a year.

If your looking at trading pitching prospects you need to look at Bryant type players (not saying Sanchez gets u Bryant), but the risk of trading a future Ace is off set by 6 years of cheap control for a position prospect.

[Ziggyy108]

I don't want to trade any of our young arms.

 

Especially before Dickey or MB

[Stangstag]

In my opinion the greater risk is trading Sanchez then holding onto him ala Drabek and watching him flop. I'd take my chances with an arm like that over a struggling outfielder for 12 mil a year.

If your looking at trading pitching prospects you need to look at Bryant type players (not saying Sanchez gets u Bryant), but the risk of trading a future Ace is off set by 6 years of cheap control for a position prospect.

 

He had one bad year. Other than 2014, Bruce was a very solid bat for 4 seasons

Edited November 22, 2014 by Stangstag

[Key22]

NJH

 

Every player to me is tradeable so I am not dead set on keeping the guy - still the times I saw him actually pitch spring training and with the Jays it was a pretty dramatic improvement in delivery, command and consistency. One thing about the reliever role that is a plus is seeing the guy over several outings over several days. Sanchez looked pretty filthy virtually every time out there. I didn't see an alarming number of walks or for that matter an alarming number of times he even missed the glove. Drabek was all over the map.

 

I just don't see why people are so ready to dump 98mh flamethrowers with decent off speed offerings at the age of 22. Sure if you are using him in a package to land the next 5-6 years of control Mike Trout in CF fine - great - bye bye Sanchez, BUT not for $12.5 million mediocre defensive .750OPS bats in a non premium position like the corner outfield spots - not when free agents with similar numbers and money cost you nothing.

 

It's been a fairly standard trait over the decades that power arms struggle with command and control and many improve - not all of them that is true but I want to see him pitch with an MLB defense behind him and Russel Martin catching him before I trade that kind of arm. He exhibited no control or command problems on the MLB club and being 22 perhaps he learned some things - made some adjustments. Maybe he winds up being an 2-3 BB per nine and 7-9K guy. Even if he's a 4-5 BB guy if he doesn;t give up hits he can still be a solid AJ Happ kind of #4. I gotta think he has more upside that Happ.

[wamco]

This guy stunk last year.

 

Hence why he is a buy-low candidate. Last year looked like it was going to be a huge year for him. Then the season started.

[wamco]

Shaky starter? How about you let him actually start a game first. Also he was closing games last year not 8th inning guy

 

How do you feel about Sanchez minor league numbers last year as a starter?

[wamco]

Why would Bruce be available? Do the Reds have any up and coming LF?

 

Team in flux. 4 sp going to be sp after the year. Chapman the year after.

[wamco]

bruce's grandpa was sick then died. after the bereavement period his numbers started to improve. kthanksbye

 

They said he came back too soon from an injury as well. If he was offered straight up for Sanchez, I jump all over that every day of the week. I think it would cost much more though.