Interesting read: Q&A with Cardinals Scouting Director

[GeorgiaPeach]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-dan-kantrovitz-st-louis-cardinals-scouting-director/

[G-Snarls]

This guy seems to be pretty good at his job

[kcjaysfan]

but if we play our cards right

 

http://i.imgur.com/q3BRWAz.jpg

[John_Havok]

"“Just trying to find athletes, or up-the-middle guys… I’m asked that a lot but we don’t really look at it that way. It might be limiting for us if we stick to a rigid strategy that is not data-driven. What we’re trying to do with our draft is optimize it. We want to figure out how it’s going to save us the most money down the road and be the most productive for us. The profile of a player that is going to save us money down the road is based on quite a bit of analysis…and it is rarely obvious. It is also a lot easier said than done, because you still have to execute it and hit on certain players. I should add that our strategy being based on saving money in the future doesn’t mean we shy away from the high-upside guys. After all, if they pan out, they would save us the most money of all.”

 

No pigeon holing based on athletes or up-the-middle guys.... data driven....

 

AA should be taking notes.

[TheHurl]

The guy every baseball person should strive to be...or at least be like.

[ElNik2013]

"“Just trying to find athletes, or up-the-middle guys… I’m asked that a lot but we don’t really look at it that way. It might be limiting for us if we stick to a rigid strategy that is not data-driven. What we’re trying to do with our draft is optimize it. We want to figure out how it’s going to save us the most money down the road and be the most productive for us. The profile of a player that is going to save us money down the road is based on quite a bit of analysis…and it is rarely obvious. It is also a lot easier said than done, because you still have to execute it and hit on certain players. I should add that our strategy being based on saving money in the future doesn’t mean we shy away from the high-upside guys. After all, if they pan out, they would save us the most money of all.”

 

No pigeon holing based on athletes or up-the-middle guys.... data driven....

 

AA should be taking notes.

 

 

I hope Jays' ownership is taking notes since they decide who runs their team, as well as how it's run.

[TheHurl]

I hope Jays' ownership is taking notes since they decide who runs their team, as well as how it's run.

 

as much as I rip into the Jays F.O. and 100% believe that analytics has a spot in pro/minor league and amateur scouting...this is not their greatest need for change in the F.O. As much as the Jays became obsessed with athletic up the middle talents, they aren't alone there and the type of players they draft will always be highly rated (until they prove they can't compete) and have great trade value (and upside).

 

I just love the Cards thoughts of value, even in Rule 4 drafting. I've always been a big advocate of likeliness to make their ceiling. I've ranked guys like Pillar and Goins over DJ Davis (and probably at one time Dalton Pompey) cause their skill set (while low in overall potential) will land them in the majors. Kantrovitz talks about relievers and utility infielders. Just because a guy doesn't have all star upside, it doesn't mean he doesn't have value.

[o2cui2i]

Jays make their drafting process even worse by being one of the worst teams in baseball when it comes to development. Jays screw up some good draft picks every season.

 

even with optimal drafts the jays would just screw up good players. Jays need to rebuild from Low A all the way to the CEO.

[Atothe]

Jays make their drafting process even worse by being one of the worst teams in baseball when it comes to development. Jays screw up some good draft picks every season.

 

even with optimal drafts the jays would just screw up good players. Jays need to rebuild from Low A all the way to the CEO.

 

Low A really? They only own one minor league affiliate which is Dunedin. Calm down on the drama.

[o2cui2i]

Low A really? They only own one minor league affiliate which is Dunedin. Calm down on the drama.

 

lol yeah... just 1 team in the system.

 

Bisons

Fisher cats

Dunedin

Lansing

Vancouver

Bluefield

GCL

DSL

 

 

Jays need to have a system that spans the entire organization. It's the only long term way to make things work. you cant just fix it at one level.

[ElNik2013]

Jays make their drafting process even worse by being one of the worst teams in baseball when it comes to development. Jays screw up some good draft picks every season.

 

You might be right. I imagine you've compared their system to the other 29 teams? It would be interesting to see your research and discuss it.

 

even with optimal drafts the jays would just screw up good players.

 

Some examples please. And how do they compare with the rest of MLB.

 

Jays need to rebuild from Low A all the way to the CEO.

 

 

I'd say from the top on down, but it's just semantics at this point.

[Orgfiller]

lol yeah... just 1 team in the system.

 

Bisons

Fisher cats

Dunedin

Lansing

Vancouver

Bluefield

GCL

DSL

 

 

Jays need to have a system that spans the entire organization. It's the only long term way to make things work. you cant just fix it at one level.

 

The Jays probably have one of the deepest farms in all of baseball, amateur scouting and development hasn't really been an issue with this FO. Sure, sometimes they go off the board or value athletes too much, but every team has hits and misses in the draft and most players do not reach their full potential. You have no evidence when you say that the Jays are one of the worst teams when it comes to player development. Guys like Graveman, Norris, Sanchez, Pompey, Stroman were all drafted and developed by the current FO, all of those guys made significant jumps through the minors this year.

[GD]

lol

[o2cui2i]

The Jays probably have one of the deepest farms in all of baseball, amateur scouting and development hasn't really been an issue with this FO. Sure, sometimes they go off the board or value athletes too much, but every team has hits and misses in the draft and most players do not reach their full potential. You have no evidence when you say that the Jays are one of the worst teams when it comes to player development. Guys like Graveman, Norris, Sanchez, Pompey, Stroman were all drafted and developed by the current FO, all of those guys made significant jumps through the minors this year.

 

Here are the first selections of the Blue Jays since 2006. Try to find the stars. Travis Snider (2006) Kevin Ahrens (2007) David Cooper (2008) Chad Jenkins (2009) Deck McGuire (2010) Tyler Beede—unsigned (2011) DJ Davis (2012) Phil Bickford—unsigned (2013).

 

take Stroman off the development list. he was pretty much ready to pitch when he was drafted. if the hadn't got suspended he would have been up even faster.

 

Jays have depth in pitching. They dont have depth in bats or position players. Pompey was a good pick low guy because of his injuries. He could be a huge piece going forward if he can stay healthy.

 

were Lind and Goins the only players drafted by the jays to play a position before sept?

[GD]

Here are the first selections of the Blue Jays since 2006. Try to find the stars. Travis Snider (2006) Kevin Ahrens (2007) David Cooper (2008) Chad Jenkins (2009) Deck McGuire (2010) Tyler Beede—unsigned (2011) DJ Davis (2012) Phil Bickford—unsigned (2013).

 

What a horrid piece of analysis. Nobody before 2010 was AA's pick. Deck was a s***** pick in his first year as GM. Beede didn't sign and went higher or in a similar place in which he was originally drafted IIRC. Davis was taken in the same year as Stroman and missed. Bickford is going to go like top 10 this year and negotiated in bad faith. He found 3 guys that were really good (Beede, Bickford, Stroman) and missed on two (McGuire, Davis). A 60% success rate combined with an incredible job of finding late picks like Boyd and Graveman and Pompey and comp guys like Sanchez, Syndergaard, etc as well as IFAs like Barreto and Castro and Osuna makes him more than adequate. AA and his staff would make a sick farm team. It's just the MLB part he struggles with (minor detail). To say that our players don't develop is short sighted. You're getting confused with simple prospect attrition.

[o2cui2i]

How?

 

discipline... since this thread is about the cards, we can look at how they develop and play the game. Guys who dont play the cards way are not there long. We have Rasmus because he couldn't play Cards ball.

 

you have to instill a mentality of doing things right from day 1. Jays players as a whole are horrible with fundamental baseball. which base to throw to, when to steal, when to take a pitch, when to shut up and go sit down after a strike out.

 

good teams play smart baseball and there are no weak spots mentally. I'd say the jays dont fall into that category. I'm not talking about having bad games or about the occasional mental fart.

 

knowing what to do and when to do it.... that is how you start.

 

gump

Lind

Gose.... the list doesn't stop there

[o2cui2i]

What a horrid piece of analysis. Nobody before 2010 was AA's pick. Deck was a s***** pick in his first year as GM. Beede didn't sign and went higher or in a similar place in which he was originally drafted IIRC. Davis was taken in the same year as Stroman and missed. Bickford is going to go like top 10 this year and negotiated in bad faith. He found 3 guys that were really good (Beede, Bickford, Stroman) and missed on two (McGuire, Davis). A 60% success rate combined with an incredible job of finding late picks like Boyd and Graveman and Pompey and comp guys like Sanchez, Syndergaard, etc as well as IFAs like Barreto and Castro and Osuna makes him more than adequate. AA and his staff would make a sick farm team. It's just the MLB part he struggles with (minor detail). To say that our players don't develop is short sighted. You're getting confused with simple prospect attrition.

 

who was the last top position player the jays got from draft to MLB roster. Hinske? ROY and then gone...

[Orgfiller]

Taking off parts of the sample is always a really smart thing to do... How the f*** is a guy whose highest level was college a guarantee for the big leagues? Those guys bust all the time. Also, even if you don't agree with their drafting process, if you have a surplus of pitching prospects and supposedly lack positional players, trades are a thing.

[Orgfiller]

who was the last top position player the jays got from draft to MLB roster. Hinske? ROY and then gone...

 

Trades are a thing??? Most teams aren't fully made up of guys they drafted and developed. I guess with a post like this you're saying that Lawrie, who was acquired as a prospect, was not in part aided by our player development. If you're saying that, then you have to account for Travis d'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Marisnick, Henderson Alvarez, Hechavarria (yes he counts as well) as being a product of the Jays' player development.

[o2cui2i]

Trades are a thing??? Most teams aren't fully made up of guys they drafted and developed.

 

no, but it sure makes it easier to do. the reason this is even a subject is because the Cards keep making long playoff runs and most of their team is home grown players. They have an amazing team and spend a lot less than other teams. not sure about this year, but last year 17 of their 25 man roster were players they drafted.

 

edit: we have seen AA and his trades. So glad to have Reyes eating up so much payroll for another 3 years.

[Boxcar]

who was the last top position player the jays got from draft to MLB roster. Hinske? ROY and then gone...

 

I'm not saying it yet or anything...but in the event I were to point out that you sound pretty dumb, would I get banned?

[o2cui2i]

I'm not saying it yet or anything...but in the event I were to point out that you sound pretty dumb, would I get banned?

 

LOL... no! but I dare you.

 

making a team is not about boxing in a couple of stars with replacement guys. Jays have too many guys in their lineup who dont play smart enough to make them viable. every team has fringe players, but the jays fringe players get way to many AB and many of them are AAAA players.

 

we went into 2014 with literally no bench. We didn't even have guys in the minors who were developed well enough to step in and play. we have had a problem with 2nd since Hill's fall off year. Plenty of time to draft and develop a proper 2nd baseman. yet we started with Goins?? 67 games with a WAR -0.6.

 

surely they should have been able to draft and they had 3 years to get a guy who could be at least a 1 or 2 war 2nd baseman? they didn't have to have a superstar, but someone who at least knew where the bat rack is located?

 

there are problems in the decision making and development process.

[GD]

zoinks this thread is awful

[o2cui2i]

zoinks this thread is awful

 

sour grapes.... no baseball tonight and our team isn't playing anyways. lol

 

it's also 2:35am....

[GD]

sour grapes.... no baseball tonight and our team isn't playing anyways. lol

 

it's also 2:35am....

 

now things are making sense. lol

[o2cui2i]

now things are making sense. lol

 

yupp....

[ElNik2013]

LOL. Since we're all over the place, we have to count Bautista and EE as well since we're blaming them for Rasmus not panning out. And when I say 'we' I mean "he".

[TheHurl]

who was the last top position player the jays got from draft to MLB roster. Hinske? ROY and then gone...

 

again it's not about development...it's about the type of players the Jays pick. By taking very raw huge athletic guys like DJ Davis (just a single example) you are going to get some issues. Because guys like Davis get huge upside draft reviews people expect the ceiling. Then they blame the Jays development, meanwhile it's likely that these guys just lack a bat tool. Happens to many teams...not just the Jays.

 

Don't get me wrong, I had issues with the Jays apparent lack of care for K's in their development. It appeared like the "pull dat ball" mentality was throughout the org. With the small change in mentality with the big club, maybe you'll see more Dalton Pompey type breakouts.

[o2cui2i]

again it's not about development...it's about the type of players the Jays pick. By taking very raw huge athletic guys like DJ Davis (just a single example) you are going to get some issues. Because guys like Davis get huge upside draft reviews people expect the ceiling. Then they blame the Jays development, meanwhile it's likely that these guys just lack a bat tool. Happens to many teams...not just the Jays.

 

Don't get me wrong, I had issues with the Jays apparent lack of care for K's in their development. It appeared like the "pull dat ball" mentality was throughout the org. With the small change in mentality with the big club, maybe you'll see more Dalton Pompey type breakouts.

 

it would be nice to see Pompey and Jimenez get regular starts for the jays. That would mean AA having to tell Dickey that his pet has to be put down and possibly Gose platooning with Pillar in RF. That would let the jays have some solid money to go out and get a 2nd baseman.

[bendera3]

Hinske was drafted by the Cubs, traded to the A's, and played in the minors with both those teams. After he was traded to Toronto for Billy Koch he did not play one game in the minors before his ROY season.

 

I think the last few position players that were developed by this organization that meant something would probably be Vernon Wells, Chris Woodward, Orlando Hudson, Rios, and a few more mid-2000s guys. This is just based off my memory but I don't think there has been any developed "impact" position players since 2010.