Jays Not Selling???

[GeorgiaPeach]

The Jays aren't in a playoff picture and won't be the rest of the year, so let's see some movement and move some guys to teams in a playoff picture.

 

Janssen & Rasmus shouldn't be back and shouldn't be offered a QO.

 

These guys should be shopped for prospects? Even a B or C prospect for each is better than hanging on to these two vets and watching them for a month of ball and leave via free agency for nothing. Dickey and Buehrle are a couple others who can easily be replaced with cheaper inning-eaters in the off season. And the plus of moving Dickey is free'ing a roster spot up by not having to carry Thole.

 

Tigers- Rasmus (Davis in CF??), Janssen (BP woes Tigers), Buehrle (Anibal out rest of season?)

Brewers-Janssen (weak pen)

Yankees- Buehrle/Dickey (rotation is pieced together), Janssen (BP pieced together)

Angels- Buehrle & Dickey (Richards down, stability needed), Lind (DH over Efren Navarro)

Dodgers-Janssen, Buehrle & Dickey......tons of money to throw around.

[ElNik2013]

I hope some of this happens, but it won't. I suspect AA will be let go at the end of the season and the Rogers guy has frozen most moves, not that AA would do any of this on his own anyway.

[GeorgiaPeach]

It's kind of late for this... I doubt many teams are looking at acquiring talent with <30 games remaining. It makes them look stupid for not doing it earlier.

 

Some of the teams I listed are on the brink of a playoff spot with glaring weaknesses, just suffered a major setback or have money to burn I'd tend to think there might be a bit of urgency in making an MLB add for a prospect might be a consideration.

 

But for some reason Alex, who use to be a frenetic trader didn't buy at the deadline or the beginning of the season. And now when it's time to sell, he's not selling.

 

I don't know what the heck is up.

[Sorrow]

Janssen, Cecil, Loup, Dickey and Mark B (if they've both passed waivers) and Rasmus should all be moving, if they've passed waivers that is.

[Frenchsoup]

Some of the teams I listed are on the brink of a playoff spot with glaring weaknesses, just suffered a major setback or have money to burn I'd tend to think there might be a bit of urgency in making an MLB add for a prospect might be a consideration.

 

But for some reason Alex, who use to be a frenetic trader didn't buy at the deadline or the beginning of the season. And now when it's time to sell, he's not selling.

 

I don't know what the heck is up.

 

The guy is terrible at his job, he pretty much gets trade raped every time do you blame him

[John_Havok]

Some of the teams I listed are on the brink of a playoff spot with glaring weaknesses, just suffered a major setback or have money to burn I'd tend to think there might be a bit of urgency in making an MLB add for a prospect might be a consideration.

 

But for some reason Alex, who use to be a frenetic trader didn't buy at the deadline or the beginning of the season. And now when it's time to sell, he's not selling.

 

I don't know what the heck is up.

 

All depends on the waiver process, you know this. Whether Janssen or Rasmus have been placed on, and subsequently cleared waivers hasn't been made public. And if they were claimed, if the claiming team isn't offering anything other than cash or some D prospect, trading them doesn't make sense.

 

I mean you could argue that a D prospect or cash is better than nothing when they walk in free agency, but it's so marginally infinitesimally better it's not really something you need to make a priority

[Key22]

Three year window - this is only year two - so we're going to watch the same disaster next year. He'll sign one $4 million bat and $3million reliever to replace Jansen.

 

Line-up will be

 

Reyes (SS)

Kawasaki (2B)

Bautista (RF)

Encarnacion (1B/DH)

Navarro ©

Lawrie (3B)

Pillar (LF)

Bat (1B/DH) Maybe Lind resigned for cheap

Gose (CF)

 

Cecil will be the closer.

[John_Havok]

Three year window - this is only year two - so we're going to watch the same disaster next year. He'll sign one $4 million bat and $3million reliever to replace Jansen.

 

Line-up will be

 

Reyes (SS)

Kawasaki (2B)

Bautista (RF)

Encarnacion (1B/DH)

Navarro ©

Lawrie (3B)

Pillar (LF)

Bat (1B/DH) Maybe Lind's option is picked up

Gose (CF)

 

Cecil will be the closer.

 

Fixed that for you.

[BTS]

I really don;t think there's much chance Lind's option is declined.

[John_Havok]

I really don;t think there's much chance Lind's option is declined.

 

I don't either. It's too bad he'll spend half the year on the DL again next year for his inevitable back strain.

 

A healthy Lin platooned with Valencia has a good chance at being decent, I think we've gone over that in the offseason thread. The key is keeping Lind and Lawrie healthy so Valencia doesn't get exposed to RHP to much.

[jaysblue]

Pillar in left field? Seriously? Kawasaki at 2B? Awful lineup.

[glory]

Lind is a 1-2 win player who can't hit lefties, can't play defense, and is injury prone. Paying him $8M when the team is cash strapped would not be wise.

[BTS]

Lind is a 1-2 win player who can't hit lefties, can't play defense, and is injury prone. Paying him $8M when the team is cash strapped would not be wise.

 

$7.5 million for a 1-2 win player is fine value. If you buy him out, you're going to have a difficult time replacing his production for cheaper.

[saskjayfan]

$7.5 million for a 1-2 win player is fine value. If you buy him out, you're going to have a difficult time replacing his production for cheaper.

 

It's a 6.5 million dollar decision. They are on the hook for a million regardless. Not picking lind up for that would be silly

[Anemic0ffense]

Now the brainiacs want Lind back. Comedy.

[Orgfiller]

Over the last 5 years, combined, Lind has contributed exactly 1.8 WAR

 

Broken down, v. RHB only, DH only guys are a luxury that most teams can't afford. Value/WAR calcs are not roster contextual. And this year, he is in danger of not even contributing that $6.5M expenditure equivalent. He's a low upside, high downside play in terms of Value/WAR, generally. His effect on the rest of the roster makes it a bad move.

You have to remember that he had Mr. Pull Dat Ball for a lot of those years. He stands as a career 127 wRC+ vs. RHP over 2753, it's not easy to find that production elsewhere for as cheap as he comes. He's at 1.0 WAR this season, so he's just about earning his contract with not much surplus value.

 

It's not saying very much, but he's also a much better defender at first than EE, so he shouldn't be thought of as a DH only player.

[GD]

You have to remember that he had Mr. Pull Dat Ball for a lot of those years. He stands as a career 127 wRC+ vs. RHP over 2753, it's not easy to find that production elsewhere for as cheap as he comes. He's at 1.0 WAR this season, so he's just about earning his contract with not much surplus value.

 

It's not saying very much, but he's also a much better defender at first than EE, so he shouldn't be thought of as a DH only player.

 

Yeah but it's like Happ. He's a very useful luxury piece for a team that can afford it but with our functionally challenged spending we can't afford to keep him or Happ at their prices. We have bigger issues. Imo shuffling guys like Edwin, Bau and Reyes through DH next year will be much better to keep them rested and hopefully healthier while not spending on a luxury.

[Orgfiller]

Yeah but it's like Happ. He's a very useful luxury piece for a team that can afford it but with our functionally challenged spending we can't afford to keep him or Happ at their prices. We have bigger issues. Imo shuffling guys like Edwin, Bau and Reyes through DH next year will be much better to keep them rested and hopefully healthier while not spending on a luxury.

IMO the difference would be that we have better, cheaper options to replace Happ, but we don't have the option to give Reyes a day off at SS without our lineup looking nauseating, and the same applies for Bautista at RF. It all depends on what the team does in the offseason, but assuming they don't add anything, we can replace guys like Happ or McGowan within the org, but will need Lind's production at the 1B/DH position since we don't have anyone better to replace him with.

[BTS]

You have to remember that he had Mr. Pull Dat Ball for a lot of those years. He stands as a career 127 wRC+ vs. RHP over 2753, it's not easy to find that production elsewhere for as cheap as he comes. He's at 1.0 WAR this season, so he's just about earning his contract with not much surplus value.

 

It's not saying very much, but he's also a much better defender at first than EE, so he shouldn't be thought of as a DH only player.

 

Yeah. His overall numbers were bad from 2010-2012 because the geniuses in management insisted on using him every day. As a DH/1B who can play only vs. RHP, he's probably a 125 wRC+ guy who will contribute 1-2 wins. You may not want to pay him $7.5 M to do that, but actually finding a suitable replacement, for less money, on a low-risk 1-year term, is not going to be easy.

[Key22]

My question is how do we get a top 5 in team ERA AL Rotation - cause that's pretty much the starting point to have a decent chance at making the playoffs. With Jansen gone and Dickey and Buehrle getting ever older and neither guy do you really want to see in a one game or three game playoff, where is the pitching coming from? It would be a lot to expect to have Sanchez, Stroman, Norris all become top of the rotation guys who could push Dickey and Buerhle to the 4-5 spots. (And that's what is needed).

 

So the money has to come from somewhere. Rasmus, Melky, Lind, Jansen, Happ money and assuming we add $15million can we land a 1 and 2 type starting pitcher? Stroman and Hutchison might be 3 and 6 with Sanchez and Norris (QUALITY depth is critical) around for injury.

 

This team really needs an 8 inning shut down Roy Halladay type to stop losing streaks.

[jaysfan2014]

My question is how do we get a top 5 in team ERA AL Rotation - cause that's pretty much the starting point to have a decent chance at making the playoffs. With Jansen gone and Dickey and Buehrle getting ever older and neither guy do you really want to see in a one game or three game playoff, where is the pitching coming from? It would be a lot to expect to have Sanchez, Stroman, Norris all become top of the rotation guys who could push Dickey and Buerhle to the 4-5 spots. (And that's what is needed).

 

So the money has to come from somewhere. Rasmus, Melky, Lind, Jansen, Happ money and assuming we add $15million can we land a 1 and 2 type starting pitcher? Stroman and Hutchison might be 3 and 6 with Sanchez and Norris (QUALITY depth is critical) around for injury.

 

This team really needs an 8 inning shut down Roy Halladay type to stop losing streaks.

 

You won't find much of that on the free agent market. Basically, it's just Lester and Scherzer, and to a lesser extent Shields who I have doubts on if he leaves the pitcher's park that is Kansas City.

[glory]

$7.5 million for a 1-2 win player is fine value. If you buy him out, you're going to have a difficult time replacing his production for cheaper.

 

The thing with Lind is that he takes up two roster spots (one for him and one for his platoon buddy). I mean, as good as Lind has been against RHP, how have his platoon mates been? This season, Navarro is hitting .270/.309/.374 against lefties. Moises Sierra had 2 hits and 1 walk in 35 PA's with the Jays so I don't think searching his splits are necessary. Valencia should be an improvement there, but you have to pay him a salary to sit on the bench and only hit against lefties (plus you have to hope his splits continue despite a relatively small sample size against LHP). You get the idea. Factor in Lind's brittle body and bad defense, and I'm not sure it's a no brainer to bring him back.

 

Would a more split neutral 1B with better defense be an improvement? I tend to think it would, but then as you said, the team would have to find a cheap solution, and I'm not sure Alex is capable of that. I'd take that chance, though.

[Dick_Pole]

My question is how do we get a top 5 in team ERA AL Rotation - cause that's pretty much the starting point to have a decent chance at making the playoffs. With Jansen gone and Dickey and Buehrle getting ever older and neither guy do you really want to see in a one game or three game playoff, where is the pitching coming from? It would be a lot to expect to have Sanchez, Stroman, Norris all become top of the rotation guys who could push Dickey and Buerhle to the 4-5 spots. (And that's what is needed).

 

So the money has to come from somewhere. Rasmus, Melky, Lind, Jansen, Happ money and assuming we add $15million can we land a 1 and 2 type starting pitcher? Stroman and Hutchison might be 3 and 6 with Sanchez and Norris (QUALITY depth is critical) around for injury.

 

This team really needs an 8 inning shut down Roy Halladay type to stop losing streaks.

 

People just need to forget about this. Alex has shown no ability to sign a top end free agent, especially not a pitcher. And in the trade market he would plug one hole by making another even worse gaping hole or emptying out the farm where the farm is now defined as a few near-MLB-ready pitchers and a bunch of guys years away. Every team would target two or more of Stroman, Norris, Sanchez or Hutchison and then the Jays go back to having depth problems. The most realistic way this team has to compete is to use the relatively good SP depth (the Jays will have 5 ok guys starting next year) and stack the offense as much as they possibly can.

[jaysfan2014]

My question is how do we get a top 5 in team ERA AL Rotation - cause that's pretty much the starting point to have a decent chance at making the playoffs.

 

Not completely true. Cincy has a top 5 ERA rotation.. but are below .500 and set to miss the playoffs because their offense is lousy. Ditto for Tampa Bay in the AL. In order to even contend, you also need to have offense to compliment the pitching, or it won't matter if you have the #1 ERA.

 

Other examples:

2013 Kansas City (#5 ERA, missed the playoffs)

2012 Mariners and 2012 Angels (#4 and #5, both missed the playoffs)

 

Back in 2012, Baltimore had a lousy rotation, yet made the playoffs.

[jaysfan2014]

People just need to forget about this. Alex has shown no ability to sign a top end free agent, especially not a pitcher. And in the trade market he would plug one hole by making another even worse gaping hole or emptying out the farm where the farm is now defined as a few near-MLB-ready pitchers and a bunch of guys years away. Every team would target two or more of Stroman, Norris, Sanchez or Hutchison and then the Jays go back to having depth problems. The most realistic way this team has to compete is to use the relatively good SP depth (the Jays will have 5 ok guys starting next year) and stack the offense as much as they possibly can.

 

And they can start by getting a decent 2B and resigning Cabrera, plus adding decent bench pieces, and cutting Rasmus. A healthy Lawrie would also help.

[glory]

My question is how do we get a top 5 in team ERA AL Rotation - cause that's pretty much the starting point to have a decent chance at making the playoffs. With Jansen gone and Dickey and Buehrle getting ever older and neither guy do you really want to see in a one game or three game playoff, where is the pitching coming from? It would be a lot to expect to have Sanchez, Stroman, Norris all become top of the rotation guys who could push Dickey and Buerhle to the 4-5 spots. (And that's what is needed).

 

So the money has to come from somewhere. Rasmus, Melky, Lind, Jansen, Happ money and assuming we add $15million can we land a 1 and 2 type starting pitcher? Stroman and Hutchison might be 3 and 6 with Sanchez and Norris (QUALITY depth is critical) around for injury.

 

This team really needs an 8 inning shut down Roy Halladay type to stop losing streaks.

 

The Jays will never sign free agents with this current regime and their strict rules (five year deals, no player friendly options, etc).

 

What the Jays might be able to do is add better defensive players and hope that helps the pitching staff. Gose/Pillar in CF should help. Shifting Reyes over to 2B and finding a real SS would help. Replacing Melky with a better defensive LF should help (his offense will be hard to replace). Replacing Navarro with a catcher who is not a fat lazy stump would be an improvement. Do all those things, and the pitching should improve without adding anyone.

 

Teams with good defense and great bullpens are currently in AL playoff spots (O's, Royals). Might be time to follow that trend and hope Bats/Edwin/Reyes can carry the offensive load.

[jaysfan2014]

The Jays will never sign free agents with this current regime and their strict rules (five year deals, no player friendly options, etc).

 

What the Jays might be able to do is add better defensive players and hope that helps the pitching staff. Gose/Pillar in CF should help. Shifting Reyes over to 2B and finding a real SS would help. Replacing Melky with a better defensive LF should help (his offense will be hard to replace). Replacing Navarro with a catcher who is not a fat lazy stump would be an improvement. Do all those things, and the pitching should improve without adding anyone.

 

Teams with good defense are great bullpens are currently in AL playoff spots (O's, Royals). Might be time to follow that trend.

 

Gose/Pillar yes, Reyes to 2B no, and Navarro still has a year left.. but we do have Jimenez in AAA, who we might see in September if healthy.

[Dick_Pole]

And they can start by getting a decent 2B and resigning Cabrera, plus adding decent bench pieces, and cutting Rasmus. A healthy Lawrie would also help.

 

I agree with everything you say there, except the expectation on Lawrie not being injured...if it walks like a lame duck and talks like a lame duck...building the team around expectations that Lawrie and Reyes will play 300 games next year will only cause the same problems we have seen the past two years which played a part in the August demise. My order of priority would be:

 

1. Sign Melky (I'm fine with Gose at CF and Pillar or some other scrub at 4th OF if they sign Melky)

2. Get a decent 2B (or SS and move Reyes)

3. catcher upgrade

4. Defensively capable infielder who wouldn't look terrible in the line up if he ended up playing 100+ games next year

 

And they can let the cards fall as they will on the pitching side. Certainly not against picking up a pitcher should an opportunity arise, but that should not displace the need to fill the gaping holes on the offensive side of this team.

Edited August 31, 2014 by Dick_Pole

[ElNik2013]

I'm all for upgrading the SP, but this team has so little budget room, if any, that it might be better off getting 3 players for the price of 1 SP.

 

In reality, I highly doubt they'll address the defensive issues. AA said this past off season that he wanted to upgrade the D and went on to sign Navarro and pick up guys like Francisco and Valencia during the season. It just doesn't seem to me like they appreciate the value of defense.

[GD]

a win is a win is a win