Offseason roster thread 2014

[jaysblue]

No.

 

My bad thought it was a fan asking Elliot a question. That's hilarious that it was AA.

[kgm1]

My bad thought it was a fan asking Elliot a question. That's hilarious that it was AA.

 

95 % of fans have no idea what war is . They look at win totals as god and most don't know what ERA stands for let alone FIP hell I'm not even sure if Bob Elliot knows. People on this board make it sound like AA doesn't understand or look at any sabermetric stats but if he started using most of those terms 95% of fans would think he was talking Greek . Did Elliot call him on it ? No because he is talking to the same casual fan .

 

I'd love to do a survey at a Jays game to see what stats the casual fan that we need to support this team knows . hell I bet 90 % don't know what OPS is let alone wOBA

[burlingtonbandit]

95 % of fans have no idea what war is . They look at win totals as god and most don't know what ERA stands for let alone FIP hell I'm not even sure if Bob Elliot knows. People on this board make it sound like AA doesn't understand or look at any sabermetric stats but if he started using most of those terms 95% of fans would think he was talking Greek . Did Elliot call him on it ? No because he is talking to the same casual fan .

 

I'd love to do a survey at a Jays game to see what stats the casual fan that we need to support this team knows . hell I bet 90 % don't know what OPS is let alone wOBA

 

thats my thinking as well but it would be nice for someone interviewing him just to ask him if he uses stats like wRC+ and xFIP. My guess is that he does but it would still be nice to hear it. I think he was saying how he thought Hutch was much better than the stats would indicate so I think he knows what whiff rates mean etc..

[KingKat]

thats my thinking as well but it would be nice for someone interviewing him just to ask him if he uses stats like wRC+ and xFIP. My guess is that he does but it would still be nice to hear it. I think he was saying how he thought Hutch was much better than the stats would indicate so I think he knows what whiff rates mean etc..

 

I wonder if he really understands that or just has people who can summarize that sort of stuff for him. He seems like a hard working guy and a good person but he doesn't strike me as particularly bright. Even in the early days when he practically walked on water, he would say stuff that made you wonder whether he was dumbing stuff down or putting a spin on things rather than actually thinking the way he talked.

[burlingtonbandit]

I wonder if he really understands that or just has people who can summarize that sort of stuff for him. He seems like a hard working guy and a good person but he doesn't strike me as particularly bright. Even in the early days when he practically walked on water, he would say stuff that made you wonder whether he was dumbing stuff down or putting a spin on things rather than actually thinking the way he talked.

 

Thats why I wish someone just asked him the question, so we could at least know instead of having to "guess". I heard him on Jonah Keri's show or podcast and AA was talking park factors so I would think he understands them. For a guy who seems to try to squeeze as much value out of anything I would think he is going to know about park factors and pitch framing etc.. But then again Navarro is the starting catcher so what the f*** do I know..

[Brenner]

Lets trade Lind for Travis Snider

[burlingtonbandit]

Lets trade Lind for Travis Snider

 

Gross. Not buying one good season of Travis Snider. Lind's value would surely be higher than that.

[43211234]

A few tidbits from Lott:

1. Post mortem on Colby and the Blue Jays - http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/09/30/blue-jays-colby-rasmus-bids-farewell-to-toronto-and-heads-for-the-montana-wilderness/

 

Gump even talks about his BABIP! (not even joking)

 

2. Transcript of an interview Lott did with Bautista for an article. You can tell Jose is really aware of front office workings and the business side of the game. Wouldn't be surprised to see him in a front office role after his playing career - http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/09/29/toronto-blue-jays-jose-bautista-talks-season-performance-pitching-and-the-future-in-extended-interview/

 

3. And short article on Anthony Alford. pretty sure this was already posted elsewhere but I'll link it again. - http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/10/01/toronto-blue-jays-prospect-anthony-alford-gives-up-football-will-start-immediately-to-catch-up-on-baseball/

[Brenner]

Gross. Not buying one good season of Travis Snider. Lind's value would surely be higher than that.

 

I don't think Lind has much value around the league. Snider would be a good fit in LF if Melky is not resigned.

[GD]

I don't think Lind has much value around the league. Snider would be a good fit in LF if Melky is not resigned.

 

respond to pm please

[burlingtonbandit]

3. And short article on Anthony Alford. pretty sure this was already posted elsewhere but I'll link it again. - http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/10/01/toronto-blue-jays-prospect-anthony-alford-gives-up-football-will-start-immediately-to-catch-up-on-baseball/

 

Lol "HR that went 500 feet". Even if it went 450 sounds like he has tremendous power.

[GeorgiaPeach]

95 % of fans have no idea what war is . They look at win totals as god and most don't know what ERA stands for let alone FIP hell I'm not even sure if Bob Elliot knows. People on this board make it sound like AA doesn't understand or look at any sabermetric stats but if he started using most of those terms 95% of fans would think he was talking Greek . Did Elliot call him on it ? No because he is talking to the same casual fan .

 

I'd love to do a survey at a Jays game to see what stats the casual fan that we need to support this team knows . hell I bet 90 % don't know what OPS is let alone wOBA

 

Ken, 90% of the fans don't know they're at a baseball game.

[burlingtonbandit]

Ken, 90% of the fans don't know they're at a baseball game.

 

I was thinking earlier and Blue Jays fans have to be one of the dumbest fan bases in sports. Every time I go to a game I hear people say the stupidest s*** and fans will boo any player that has previously played for the team. Fans close to the field routinely don't know if a ball is called fair or not and interfere with the game. At least when you go to Raptors games the fans know what they are doing and have good basketball etiquette.

[43211234]

I was thinking earlier and Blue Jays fans have to be one of the dumbest fan bases in sports. Every time I go to a game I hear people say the stupidest s*** and fans will boo any player that has previously played for the team. Fans close to the field routinely don't know if a ball is called fair or not and interfere with the game. At least when you go to Raptors games the fans know what they are doing and have good basketball etiquette.

 

Holy f*** listening to the drivel that comes from the stands really lowers the experience.

 

Every time I hear "run faster!" on a routine groundball I die a little inside.

 

I've never been to another park but I find it hard to believe there's another stadium in the league where you'd find more disinterest in the actual game. On sunday, in the last inning of the season, the f***ing wave was making it's way around rogers centre.

[Slot Machine]

The only game I was at this year some guys behind me wouldn't shut up about R.A Dickey, all there ripping on the team eventually came back to him. Didn't give Reyes any s***, just Dickey.

[glory]

With Donaldson apparently a trade candidate, what would it take to get him? Probably more than the Jays would be willing to trade but if we are talking about difference makers who won't make a ton of money, Donaldson fits that criteria perfectly. Maybe trade Lawrie to a third team to get more prospects to send to Oakland (assuming Lawrie still has enough value for that).

[burlingtonbandit]

With Donaldson apparently a trade candidate, what would it take to get him? Probably more than the Jays would be willing to trade but if we are talking about difference makers who won't make a ton of money, Donaldson fits that criteria perfectly. Maybe trade Lawrie to a third team to get more prospects to send to Oakland (assuming Lawrie still has enough value for that).

 

the media are the ones saying that about Donaldson. I doubt he gets traded in the offseason.

[GD]

This team needs to be in on Donaldson

[BTS]

Would Oakland accept Lawrie, Pompey, and Stroman?

[burlingtonbandit]

Would Oakland accept Lawrie, Pompey, and Stroman?

 

Probably but I wouldn't do that from the Jays perspective.

[BTS]

Probably but I wouldn't do that from the Jays perspective.

 

Really? I'd do it easily.

[glory]

I think Lawrie, Sanchez, and Norris makes far more sense from the Jays perspective since they don't lose a starter from their big league club, and Lawrie to Donaldson is about a 4-5 win improvement depending on how you view Lawrie. It will make the 2016 rotation a little dicey (Buehrle and Happ free agents, and Dickey has a team option), but if you want to win in 2015, then that's the deal to make.

[Jimcanuck]

Would Oakland accept Lawrie, Pompey, and Stroman?

 

Massive overpay

[baubau]

Would Oakland accept Lawrie, Pompey, and Stroman?

 

That isn't that bad of a package honestly. Oakland gets, what currently projects to be, a no. 3 or better starter. Stroman provided 3.3 WAR this season and while I suspect he'll have his up and down years he'd still roughly remain around that area.

 

Pompey is still relatively unproven. I know he had a hell of a rise this year and I am unsure what his future value may hold but for now lets say a 4th OF to a passable OF. Still a top 100 prospect none the less.

 

Lawrie still provides the great defense at 3rd and potentially at 2nd should A's move him. The biggest problem with him is always going to be his ability to stay healthy. I suspect if he had a healthy season he'd put up about 3 WAR season.

 

Overall, you're pretty much giving up a group of guys that have a lot of years of control. Lawrie may get a slight bump but I doubt its anything absurd. The other teams I could see beating this package would be Boston and Texas.

 

But I doubt it happens. You'd see a uproar from the casual fans about trading two "Canadian" boys. Imagine the PR night mare for Rogers. Which sucks. I would love Donaldson as well. Would be the best player on the Jays now and for years to come.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Would the gaints trade Scutaro for izturis straight up?

[F. Torres]

Would Oakland accept Lawrie, Pompey, and Stroman?

 

Anthopoulos would be giving up:

 

1. 6 cost controlled seasons of a guy who already pitched like a #2 starter.

2. 6 cost controlled years of a guy who, with his defence in CF and speed on the bases, wouldn't have to hit much to be at least a solid-average regular, and is close to contributing.

3. 3 relatively cheap years of a guy who is a solid-average regular at 3B or 2B at worst and could still take a step forward at some point.

 

Beane would do that in a heartbeat of 3 years of Donaldson (who will be underpaid, but still expensive for a team with Oakland's budget, especially after this season). Anthopoulos wouldn't though, nor should he. At best it's a 1, at the most 2, win upgrade for 2015 and probably an easy loss from a long-term POV.

[BTS]

Anthopoulos would be giving up:

 

1. 6 cost controlled seasons of a guy who already pitched like a #2 starter.

2. 6 cost controlled years of a guy who, with his defence in CF and speed on the bases, wouldn't have to hit much to be at least a solid-average regular, and is close to contributing.

3. 3 relatively cheap years of a guy who is a solid-average regular at 3B or 2B at worst and could still take a step forward at some point.

 

Beane would do that in a heartbeat of 3 years of Donaldson (who will be underpaid, but still expensive for a team with Oakland's budget, especially after this season). Anthopoulos wouldn't though, nor should he. At best it's a 1, at the most 2, win upgrade for 2015 and probably an easy loss from a long-term POV.

 

Generally when fans of a team balk at moving 2-3 lesser assets for multiple years of a legit MVP candidate, they end up being wrong. Getting 4 arb years of a 6-win player is ridiculously valuable. And he'll be 33 when he hits free agency, so he'll never get the kind of mega-deal that this team finds prohibitive. There's a decent chance you're adding a franchise player who will be here for the long haul.

[Abomination]

Generally when fans of a team balk at moving 2-3 lesser assets for multiple years of a legit MVP candidate, they end up being wrong. Getting 4 arb years of a 6-win player is ridiculously valuable. And he'll be 33 when he hits free agency, so he'll never get the kind of mega-deal that this team finds prohibitive. There's a decent chance you're adding a franchise player who will be here for the long haul.

 

It is an interesting question, isn't it? I think it's worth keeping in mind that those 4 arbitration years (especially the last 2) could be pretty damn expensive also (although still worth it).

 

If we had essentially an unlimited payroll, I'd say absolutely. If they stay healthy though (big if), those three guys might be capable of putting up 10+ WAR next year, at ~3M. We saw what happened this year when we were forced to plug a bunch of holes with scrubs. In some ways, I think we might be better off having multiple above average players than one star and a bunch of scrubs (yes I realize the two choices shouldn't be mutually exclusive, but they probably are given recent history).

[F. Torres]

Generally when fans of a team balk at moving 2-3 lesser assets for multiple years of a legit MVP candidate, they end up being wrong. Getting 4 arb years of a 6-win player is ridiculously valuable. And he'll be 33 when he hits free agency, so he'll never get the kind of mega-deal that this team finds prohibitive. There's a decent chance you're adding a franchise player who will be here for the long haul.

 

I agree completely when lesser assets are Mitch Nay and Dwight Smith Jr. or something outright ridiculous. But Stroman is an elite asset by himself. Consider the fact that Sonny Gray ranked 31st on Dave Cameron's list of most valuable trade assets this season. At the time (July 15) these were Gray's career stats:

 

2.75 ERA

3.07 FIP

3.27 xFIP

189.2 innings (29 GS)

 

Stroman's stats since being moved to the rotation:

 

3.27 ERA

2.82 FIP

3.18 xFIP

118.1 innings (19 GS, 1 RP)

 

Those are fairly comparable stats and Stroman has an edge in age (1 year younger than Gray was at the time), so I think it's fair to say Stroman is arguably at the back end of the 30 most valuable trade assets in the game. Of course Donaldson ranked 17th, and would probably rank a couple spots higher now, so Stroman vs. Donaldson is a pretty easy call. But Pompey is arguably a top 50 prospect, no doubt top 100 prospect, who is close, and Lawrie is going to be a relatively cheap regular for the next three years with upside remaining. I actually didn't realize Donaldson was a Super-Two and had 4 years left, so that makes it a lot closer. But I still lean towards the Jays package. Like I said, it's probably a lateral move (or marginal upgrade at best) for 2015, and if the team is giving up future wins (which I'm not opposed to), it needs to be for a bigger 2015 swing. One other thing to consider as well; the Jays still have a chance to lock up Stroman to a team friendly deal and could do the same with Pompey eventually.

 

I think it's a moot point in practical terms though. Since Donaldson has 4 years of arb, I think it's much more likely they look to move him next offseason or the offseason after that. They can afford him for at least 2015 and he'd still be incredibly valuable with 3 or 2 years of arb control left.

[GD]

That's a hell of a second post.