Unloading the farm for David Price

[flafson]

Why would the Rays trade within their division? Doesn't make any sense.

[BlueJaysGirl]

I think you can see the pattern of TB trades. They trade a player in their prime to get back affordable and long term controllable talent and/or top prospects. So, I don't think they are looking for vets. That being said, if Price/Shark required the same package to acquire, you go all in for Price not Shark. So, if the team is deciding to make a big package for a pitcher, I think without a doubt Price is the man to go after.

 

I'd rather have Shark, given the fact he's under control through 2015 and not a FA after 2014. We could at least get a QO offer in on Shark at the end of his "rental". Plus, if the trade backfires, we won't have our noses rubbed in it the million times we have to face Tampa every year.

[G-Snarls]

I'd rather have Shark, given the fact he's under control through 2015 and not a FA after 2014. We could at least get a QO offer in on Shark at the end of his "rental". Plus, if the trade backfires, we won't have our noses rubbed in it the million times we have to face Tampa every year.

 

Price also is not a free agent until after 2015 so you get 1.5 years with him too, plus the ability to tender a qualifying offer.

 

But he has won a shitload higher salary through arbitration - he could set a record for arbitration salary next season if he's good this year.

[Sammy225]

Why would the Rays trade within their division? Doesn't make any sense.

 

Because they are going to want to get the best deal possible. Should it matter to them if the Yanks/Red Sox want to go above and beyond anyone else in a trade. They want the best package and if it is a divisional team they will not care.

 

Notice i said Yanks/Red Sox because there is zero chance we give Rays what they are going to want for Price.

[BlueJaysGirl]

Hey, about good, solid pitchers like Price or Shark. Say we decide to make a trade for either one. And we lose minimum two of our top prospects. So who does that new guy replace? Happ? I don't think so. He's replace Stroman, who'd be part of the deal for sure.

 

So, with 2/3 a season left, are Price or Shark really such a huge upgrade over Stroman? Will Stroman win ~8 more games over the rest of the season? Maybe 10? Would a Price or Shark get us 12+ wins? I don't think either pitcher gets us more than two wins. But for argument's sake, three wins over Stroman. And a better starter in the playoffs I guess. I don't know. It's a tough decision, obviously that's why nothing has happened yet.

[BlueJaysGirl]

Price also is not a free agent until after 2015 so you get 1.5 years with him too, plus the ability to tender a qualifying offer.

 

But he has won a shitload higher salary through arbitration - he could set a record for arbitration salary next season if he's good this year.

 

Oh, crap, I thought he was an FA after 2014. Sorry.

[G-Snarls]

Oh, crap, I thought he was an FA after 2014. Sorry.

 

No prob. For some reason that's a very common misconception.

 

Maybe that's because he's already making over 10M even durinf what is only his second arbitration eligible season, plus the fact people have been discussing Tampa trading him for so long now.

[G-Snarls]

Half a season vs a season and a half is obviously a MASSIVE difference to a GM. Not only because he might help you in two pennant races rather than one, but in addition it might allow you to collect a draft pick if he leaves after that. A guy traded mid season in his last year before free agency doesn't give you that.

 

That draft pick can help offset the prospect cost you paid to get a guy in the first place.

[BigCecil]

Hey, about good, solid pitchers like Price or Shark. Say we decide to make a trade for either one. And we lose minimum two of our top prospects. So who does that new guy replace? Happ? I don't think so. He's replace Stroman, who'd be part of the deal for sure.

 

So, with 2/3 a season left, are Price or Shark really such a huge upgrade over Stroman? Will Stroman win ~8 more games over the rest of the season? Maybe 10? Would a Price or Shark get us 12+ wins? I don't think either pitcher gets us more than two wins. But for argument's sake, three wins over Stroman. And a better starter in the playoffs I guess. I don't know. It's a tough decision, obviously that's why nothing has happened yet.

 

I was doing that math too on acquiring a stud SP, when I think it might be possible because it isn't now, and their remaining starts vs what Stroman might give you for wins. Hard to estimate.

 

We have to assume the division will be tight. The other factor is, if you make it in, the huge value of a stud in the playoffs vs rookie. Price also has more than this yr control which is big.

[BlueJaysGirl]

No prob. For.some reason that's a very common misconception.

 

Maybe that's because he's already making over 10M even after only his second arbitration eligible season, plus the fact people have been discussing Tampa trading him for so long now.

 

I hate Tampa. #randomthought

[BlueJaysGirl]

Half a season vs a season and a half if obviously a MASSIVE difference to a GM. Not only because he might help you in two pennant races, but in addition it might allow you to collect a draft pick if he leaves after that. A guy traded mid season in his last year before free agency doesn't give you that.

 

So for either or, we're looking at TWO top prospects plus another TOP prospect to replace the 1st round you'd get as QO compensation. That's what I would want as a GM, plus maybe a second tier guy or two you may amount to something. There's no way the Jays have that unless they gave up Sanchez, Stroman and another top farm hand. Ouch. But then again, we'd have that solid starter for 1.5 years *and* a 1st rounder (presumably) at some point. VERY tough decision.

[G-Snarls]

I was doing that math too on acquiring a stud SP, when I think it might be possible because it isn't now, and their remaining starts vs what Stroman might give you for wins. Hard to estimate.

 

We have to assume the division will be tight. The other factor is, if you make it in, the huge value of a stud in the playoffs vs rookie. Price also has more than this yr control which is big.

 

It is, and I think by September we could be neck and neck with Boston and New York.

 

In the playoffs, it really really helps to have 2-3 top end guys. having a bunch of 4/5 caliber guys is not what you want.

[G-Snarls]

James Shields, OTOH is a free agent after this season

 

He would be a straight up half season rental

[BlueJaysGirl]

James Shields, OTOH is a free agent after this season

 

He would be a straight up half season rental

 

KC gets a 1st rounder via QO for Shields. Would any offer for the Shields rental still need to include two top prospects?

[G-Snarls]

KC gets a 1st rounder via QO for Shields. Would any offer for the Shields rental still need to include two top prospects?

 

No

 

No one would part with that.

 

And the receiving team CANNOT get the comp pick if he's traded mid season. Only KC can if they keep him. That lessens his trade value considerably.

 

Edit: The only way a team MIGHT give a Price level package would be if they could negotiate an extension (a la Dickey) and I don't know how likely that would he here.

[shortstop]

salivating envisioning Shields on this team - rotation of Buehrle, Shields, Dickey, Hutch & Stroman/Happ...

 

Moore under pressure in KC & this year looks like another year of disappointed though last year they were much more competitive...they have the cardinals, yanks & Indians coming up on the schedule - see where they stand 7-10 days from now...

[G-Snarls]

What would it take to get Shields??

 

Would love to have him if cost was much lower than Shark or Price...

[BigCecil]

No

 

No one would part with that.

 

And the receiving team CANNOT get the comp pick if he's traded mid season. Only KC can if they keep him. That lessens his trade value considerably.

 

Edit: The only way a team MIGHT give a Price level package would be if they could negotiate an extension (a la Dickey) and I don't know how likely that would he here.

 

Is there a rule about not being able to negotiate an extension as condition of a trade package and if so is it done anyway (a la Dickey) behind the scenes?

[BlueJaysGirl]

No

 

No one would part with that.

 

And the receiving team CANNOT get the comp pick if he's traded mid season. Only KC can if they keep him. That lessens his trade value considerably.

 

Edit: The only way a team MIGHT give a Price level package would be if they could negotiate an extension (a la Dickey) and I don't know how likely that would he here.

 

So, in terms of Shields, KC will probably get a 1st round draft pick when he walks after 2014. So you're saying the demand for two top prospects for his services is unreasonable? They get one just by keeping him, though. Assuming a 1st round draft pick will almost automatically become a top prospect.

 

So, if you're KC, would you be demanding Stroman and another young arm?

[shortstop]

KC's additional leverage is the team that may get Shields will likely get that extra 'boost' to not only get into the playoffs but also compete in the playoffs...

 

of course, depends on supply as well if Price, Shark, etc. get on the market...

 

be interesting - does 1st mover get advantage or does the market get more intense & teams willing to give up more the moment the 1st pitcher gets off the board...

[G-Snarls]

So, in terms of Shields, KC will probably get a 1st round draft pick when he walks after 2014. So you're saying the demand for two top prospects for his services is unreasonable? They get one just by keeping him, though. Assuming a 1st round draft pick will almost automatically become a top prospect.

 

So, if you're KC, would you be demanding Stroman and another young arm?

 

A ranked top 50 prospect is worth WAY more than a first round draft pick since so many of the latter bust. Also, very importantly, these compensation picks are not really even first round picks - they are "sandwiched" between the first and second rounds, so they fall in the #31-40 ish range. This further reduces the chances of that pick becoming a top prospect/major league player. Someone who's already made the top 50 prospects list is much more likely to succeed than any given first or sandwhich round round draft pick who is chosen at 16-18 years of age, because so many busts have already been weeded out before that top 50 list is made.

 

So yes, they'd MUCH rather have Marcus Stroman than a compensation pick. But teams are understandably reluctant to give someone like that up when they're only getting half a season and no draft pick back. That's the choice teams have to make when they think about trading guys with only half a season left before free agency. The question is - Can you get a player who is more valuable than a compensation pick or not?

 

BTW, it's obviously the same situation we're in with Rasmus.

 

Tampa rarely lets this happen - they usually trade their guys (Garza, Shields) while they still have trade value (usually 1-2 years before free agency) but are starting to get expensive. When you think about it, it's still surprising that they were willing to go in to 2014 with Price making 14M. They obviously couldn't get what they really wanted this off season, so will try again at the trade deadline. They DID let BJ Upton get to free agency and let him go for a comp pick, but I don't think they can afford to do that with Price. He'll make even more next year.

 

Final answer? If I'm KC, Stroman is exactly who I ask Toronto for, but any "extra" beyond that would not be a top prospect.

Edited June 2, 2014 by G-Snarls

[wardhenke1]

I know this will be a highly unpopular view on here, but I just can't buy into the notion that we're one elite pitcher away from the world series. I would oppose any trade that saw us giving up on Stroman or Sanchez and I can't imagine what else we would have left to offer.

 

After already seeing Marisnick, Nicolino, DeSclafani, Syndergaard and d'Arnaud depart in return for a s***** 2013 season and a 12-15 March and April, I just don't think I could rationalize mortgaging what's left of our future in the light of one good month, especially not with AA in charge of making the deal.

[G-Snarls]

Phillies sinking further and further in the standings, so...

[KingKat]

Phillies sinking further and further in the standings, so...

 

Utley + Lee package FTW.

[shortstop]

I honestly believe the Rays thought this was their year & short of a ridiculous haul for Price, were intent on keeping him...who would've thought 2-3 of their starting pitchers would go down & likely kill their season...I think with the situation changed, Price imo will be gone by the deadline for a not insignificant sum...he's started & won some big playoff games...

 

WardHenke, i'm of the same mindset - they've sold off enough & don't think giving up the prized remaining arms in the organization is the way to go...but it assumes there isn't a prize behind Stroman & Sanchez less than 2 years away...add in the fact they are controllable for a while...and add in the fact Dickey & Beuhrle can't pitch forever (well, maybe they can!)...

[G-Snarls]

Utley + Lee package FTW.

 

Dat payroll!!

 

Can't gamble on Utley. 35 years old now and he has several of those "Amaro Jr special" vesting options that pay him 15M per year for his age 37, 38, 39 seasons if he gets enough plate appearances. No thanks...

[G-Snarls]

Utley - Classic Amaro Jr contract:

 

2014 35 Philadelphia Phillies $15,000,000

2015 36 Philadelphia Phillies $10,000,000 (2015 salary increases by $5M to $15M with 15 days or less on disabled list with knee injury in 2014)

2016 37 Philadelphia Phillies *$15,000,000 $15M Vesting Option option guaranteed with 500 plate appearance in previous season

2017 38 Philadelphia Phillies *$15,000,000 $15M Vesting Option option guaranteed with 500 plate appearance in previous season

2018 39 Philadelphia Phillies *$15,000,000 $15M Vesting Option option guaranteed with 500 plate appearance in previous season

[G-Snarls]

Olerud363:

 

Please tell us the conversation that would take place between Beeston, Gaston, AA and Gibby during Utley's age 37 season, as they try to decide how much playing time they should give him.

 

Thank you

[BarkatToronto]

I would honestly give up Sanchez and our next top prospect for Price. Stroman is a no, because he can help us now. In 2 years this Jays team will be torn down and we will start the rebuilding cycle anyways.

[DuckDuckGose]

Price and Zobrist for EE and Stroman or Sanchez?

 

Yes Price and Zobrist are 2 premium players, but they are running out of affordable control years rapidly and this trade makes Tampa much more sustainable $ wise.

 

It's all moot and just for fun - I don't see Tampa/Toronto making a trade any time soon.

 

Wow talent wise I make that deal. I don't think the Jays can resign both of it were to happen though so I probably keep Edwin.