Ervin Santana want One year and the promise "Not QO for 2015"

[Boxcar]

I know, right?!

 

It's so stressful to be guaranteed $14M+ to throw a baseball for 8 months. Or not even have to do anything if you get a boo boo. Like, OMG, how does he manage with that hanging over his head? I totally don't blame him for wanting to violate league rules in an effort to avoid that.

 

I think that Santana is a douche and he values himself to a higher degree than everyone else, but the whole premise of the QO is stupid. A lot of these guys are going on what their agent advises and truth be told, the QO took a lot of teams who would have taken a shot on him out of the running for his services. The one thing I don't blame him for is not wanting that weight hanging over him again. You can disagree but I don't think this is an outrageous position.

[Angrioter]

I see him as medium dark, 5'8" with a massive mustache.

 

NOT

 

was in chicago last season

[flafson]

Next year QO is going to be 15-16 mil. He needs to be Verlander like for AA to give him one.

[TheHurl]

hasn't Ang posted several pictures of himself? Pretty sure I remember him Cano and Cano's dad. Maybe that's just from my stalking of him.

[KingKat]

It's so much to give up to be guaranteed to get nothing back IMO. With the lost pick, he's being paid for 3-4 WAR.

 

Well then the hell with him then. You shouldn't be counting on the Q.O. anyways. They were probably counting on the Q.O. when they traded for Johnson and we all know how that went.

[Angrioter]

Next year QO is going to be 15-16 mil. He needs to be Verlander like for AA to give him one.

 

Kershaw +30 AAV

Cano +24 AAV

Trout +25 AAV?

 

QO could rise 16-17M

[KingKat]

Odds are if the Q.O. is offered, Santana accepts this time because he doesn't want to be left on a lurch again. So you basically have to assume that you will feel comfortable paying him 30 million or so over two seasons. If you not comfortable doing that today then you shouldn't be any more comfortable giving him 15 million for one and just assuming that you're going to give him a q.o.

[KingKat]

JJ was still worth the QO, he just wasn't given it for some reason.

 

And Santana probably won't be either because Santana won't be amazing and the team will just get scared off of it like they did with Johnson.

[Terminator]

JJ was still worth the QO, he just wasn't given it for some reason.

 

That's debatable as he signed for just above half of what the QO is worth.

[Abomination]

I don't think it's debatable at all. It's not what he got on open market, but what he would have been worth to the Jays if he accepted.

 

In hindsight he definitely should have been qualified, but most of us were at least somewhat on the fence about it at the time. I'm actually not entirely sure he would have accepted.

[KingKat]

In hindsight he definitely should have been qualified, but most of us were at least somewhat on the fence about it at the time. I'm actually not entirely sure he would have accepted.

 

Yeah I think it was a risk worth taking but it would have taken a lot of stones. It's easier to justify now that the team is down to giving Santana the same money or bust.

[KingKat]

I can understand why the front office might prefer Santana to Johnson, all else being equal.

 

That logic only makes sense if you assumed all along that Santana could have had for the same money which would have been one hell of an expectation. There's a chance it works out but right now all the eggs are in that basket and the team is pretty close to winding up with nothing.

 

I think East is probably right that the team probably isn't in on Drew or Morales. It just seems too weird to wait this long on them if you were actually interested whereas there is by all reports an actual offer to Santana.

[Stangstag]

I can understand why the front office might prefer Santana to Johnson, all else being equal. I don't agree, but I understand. Paying a $5-10 million premium to sign Santana over Johnson is not defensible.

 

I agree with this 100%

[Caper]

Josh Johnson sucked donkey dick. One of the worst bluejays pitchers I have ever witnessed.

[KingKat]

BABIP takes 8 years to 50% stabilize, HR/FB takes 9.5 years. Looking at ~80 IP and assuming those to be Johnson's fault is egregious. Strikeouts take 0.2 years and walks take 0.5 years. FB take 0.4 years. Those all fall into his sample size so we should use xFIP. Which was 3.58.

 

Which as you stated earlier is all moot if there are serious medical issues.

[Angrioter]

BABIP takes 8 years to 50% stabilize, HR/FB takes 9.5 years. Looking at ~80 IP and assuming those to be Johnson's fault is egregious. Strikeouts take 0.2 years and walks take 0.5 years. FB take 0.4 years. Those all fall into his sample size so we should use xFIP. Which was 3.58.

 

WinsAR

[JugglingPitches]

This is beyond ridiculous at this point. He is a headcase before even signing a contract. Inflated sense of worth, "me first" attitude, and doesn't even have the numbers to back it up.

 

Give HIM a deadline. Enough of him and his agent dictating the negotiations. Give him until the end of the day to make a decision or pull the offer. Opening day is in 21 days, if he doesn't value Spring Training then I have questions about his desire to win and what he would bring to this clubhouse that already has a reputation for not taking the game seriously enough.

 

I would actually have walked away from this negotiation a long time ago but if AA wants him he needs to put his foot down already.

[Sammy225]

Braves pitching staff blew up. Hes going to Atlanta.

 

Nope they just got Zach Stewart all there problems are fixed lol.

[Angrioter]

Nope they just got Zach Stewart all there problems are fixed lol.

 

Zach Stewart (Grant Favourite), Freedy Garcia and Yuniesky Maya (40 Years old Cuban)

[theblujay]

BABIP takes 8 years to 50% stabilize, HR/FB takes 9.5 years. Looking at ~80 IP and assuming those to be Johnson's fault is egregious. Strikeouts take 0.2 years and walks take 0.5 years. FB take 0.4 years. Those all fall into his sample size so we should use xFIP. Which was 3.58.

 

Watching him last year he didn't look like a pitcher being killed by bad luck. He looked terrible. Hard hit balls all over the place and not fooling anyone.

[jays_fever]

Braves pitching staff blew up. Hes going to Atlanta.

 

They already have 5 starters with Gavin Floydd ready for May

[Hats4Bats]

Watching him last year he didn't look like a pitcher being killed by bad luck. He looked terrible. Hard hit balls all over the place and not fooling anyone.

 

 

Yeah, but JFaS knows better than to watch actual games because of the obvious bias it creates

[Terminator]

Paying a $5-10 million premium to sign Santana over Johnson is not defensible.

 

Why is that not defensible? Johnson has serious health concerns.

[Abomination]

This is the sort of argument that MLBAM should help resolve in the future. We'll be able to determine (at least to a much higher degree than we can now) how much luck really plays into some results. I suspect reality is somewhere in the middle of xFIP and ERA for JJ last year.

[Terminator]

I don't think it's debatable at all. It's not what he got on open market, but what he would have been worth to the Jays if he accepted.

 

Why is it not debatable "at all"?

 

He has serious health concerns and on the open market he only got 8 million, not even close to the QO. I don't get why you and others think giving 14 million to a guy with his medical history is such a no brainer.

[TheHurl]

BABIP takes 8 years to 50% stabilize, HR/FB takes 9.5 years. Looking at ~80 IP and assuming those to be Johnson's fault is egregious. Strikeouts take 0.2 years and walks take 0.5 years. FB take 0.4 years. Those all fall into his sample size so we should use xFIP. Which was 3.58.

 

isn't the main idea to get guys that have enough upside to actually outperform their salary...Based on those numbers and your projections he fall right in to that $14M range and that's if he gets to the 160 innings he's projected for. So by all logic even having a min salary guy that performs near between 0.5 and 1.0 WAR would provide more value and we could have spent the $14M better. I know that we all seem to know this (but they don't), I'm just pointing out that it's at least defensible to not QO Johnson (even more so when you consider the optics of it)

 

Again I didn't even like JJ last year which was more gut feel than projections (and a little theory I have on pitchers that don't pitch well on the road changing venues). What we can guarantee is that even my gut feel is probably better than whatever system the Jays are using for player evaluation.

[TheHurl]

Why is it not debatable "at all"?

 

He has serious health concerns and on the open market he only got 8 million, not even close to the QO. I don't get why you and others think giving 14 million to a guy with his medical history is such a no brainer.

 

Projections. I completely understand his side...if you are going to put in that much work figuring out projections than you should and will stand by them. JFAs is a smart guy though; he's fully aware that he's making his projections based on a pitcher being healthy enough to pitch (info none of us have but the Jays certainly should). What he's saying is he's projecting JJ to pitch 150+ innings at a 3.60 ERA...and that should be worth $14M. I think we'd all agree with that.

Edited March 10, 2014 by TheHurl

[jays4life19]

Why is it not debatable "at all"?

 

He has serious health concerns and on the open market he only got 8 million, not even close to the QO. I don't get why you and others think giving 14 million to a guy with his medical history is such a no brainer.

 

He probably could have gotten more if he wanted. He was very specific on where he wanted to pitch. There were teams offering 10 million and if it was just about money he probably could have gotten 1 year around 11 million.

[KingKat]

He probably could have gotten more if he wanted. He was very specific on where he wanted to pitch. There were teams offering 10 million and if it was just about money he probably could have gotten 1 year around 11 million if it was just about money.

 

By signing with San Diego, he went from the Roger's center to probably the best park (and division) to maximize his chances of a good season (by traditional stats anyways). This is the smart way to approach one year contracts. Ervin Santana should have done the same.

[jays4life19]

Johnson knew what he was doing (SF might have been the best choice combining park and team offence) but they likely didn't extend an offer.

 

He also wanted to play close to home.

 

San Diego really was the perfect place for him.