Fangraphs: Most and least Improved teams for 2014

[Smedley Butler]

Apparently according to AA they did not even try to despair Navarro's agents. The BEST must of liked him a lot.

 

AA switched it up this time and started trying to despair him after he signed him by trashing his contract publicly. Variety is the spice of life after all.

[John_Havok]

I feel like people are going be let down by Navarro. Pretty much every metric has him a bit below average defensively. If he shows up and hits to his career average people are going to hate him.

 

I expect 1 - 1.5 WAR so my expectations are pretty mild.

[John_Havok]

Dafuq? At first f***ing glance this f***ing list looks to be pretty f***ing f***ed. Seriously?

 

Anyone here expect Boston to be 16 games worse, or Tigers 14 games worse for example?

 

They're just projections, good for talking points and ask g more questions. It's not crazy to think Boston Won't win 97 games again when you consider everything that went right for them last year. -16 is a stretch though.

[Smedley Butler]

They're just projections, good for talking points and ask g more questions. It's not crazy to think Boston Won't win 97 games again when you consider everything that went right for them last year. -16 is a stretch though.

 

No, I definitely expect them to be worse, just not 16 games worse.

[Olerud363]

AA switched it up this time and started trying to despair him after he signed him by trashing his contract publicly. Variety is the spice of life after all.

 

AA despairing Navarro's agent - Your player's worthless. You're worthless too. I wouldn't of paid the minimum for him... I wouldn't of even signed him to a minor league contract and let him rot in Buffalo. I wouldn't of gone near him or you other than the fact that our last catcher was J.P. Arencibia. Better then Arencibia?? I'll give you that much, But otherwise the two of you are worthless dog s***.

[John_Havok]

No, I definitely expect them to be worse, just not 16 games worse.

 

Yeah that would be odd, but whenever stuff like this comes out I like to get into the projections and see exactly why they're projected so much lower. Clearly not having ellsbury, salty and drew will take it's toll on projections, because as much as the baseball world thinks Bogaerts is ready, replacing the 3.4 of drew will probably not happen. Ditto Bradley from ellsbury, that's an easy 4 WAR drop on it's own probably, if not more. Add in regression of a few WAR total from lackey and maybe Ortiz, Victorino and Koji... That's pretty significant

[Chappy]

Yeah that would be odd, but whenever stuff like this comes out I like to get into the projections and see exactly why they're projected so much lower. Clearly not having ellsbury, salty and drew will take it's toll on projections, because as much as the baseball world thinks Bogaerts is ready, replacing the 3.4 of drew will probably not happen. Ditto Bradley from ellsbury, that's an easy 4 WAR drop on it's own probably, if not more. Add in regression of a few WAR total from lackey and maybe Ortiz, Victorino and Koji... That's pretty significant

 

Realistically, I see the Red Sox as a 90 win team, good enough to get the WC at least.

[John_Havok]

And they have decent depth to cover for a few injuries.

[flafson]

If there is one thing i learned today, our lineup is good, our pitching is not.

[G-Snarls]

Hasn't Navarro always been fat as f***? I'm pretty sure I don't remember him ever not being fat as f***.

 

Dioner Navarro Becomes First Player Ever to Order Portillo's While Rounding Third

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/chicago-tough/2013/07/dioner-navarro-becomes-first-player-ever-to-order-portillos-while-rounding-third/

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/chicago-tough/files/2013/07/navarro.jpg

[G-Snarls]

If there is one thing i learned today, our lineup is good, our pitching is not.

 

Well, we weren't exactly sending our best out there today

 

Romero, Happ, Drabek will be part of an expensive and mediocre AAA rotation

[Frenchsoup]

Well, we weren't exactly sending our best out there today

 

Romero, Happ, Drabek will be part of an expensive and mediocre AAA rotation

 

I really hope Romero pitches well this spring so we can give him away to Texas

[Laika]

Astros, Phillies, Mariners, Marlins, Blue Jays, White Sox, Twins, Brewers

 

The company we keep!

[Smedley Butler]

AA despairing Navarro's agent - Your player's worthless. You're worthless too. I wouldn't of paid the minimum for him... I wouldn't of even signed him to a minor league contract and let him rot in Buffalo. I wouldn't of gone near him or you other than the fact that our last catcher was J.P. Arencibia. Better then Arencibia?? I'll give you that much, But otherwise the two of you are worthless dog s***.

 

Your continued use of the cancerous phrase "should of" is despairing me beyond belief. :-(

[Smedley Butler]

Yeah that would be odd, but whenever stuff like this comes out I like to get into the projections and see exactly why they're projected so much lower. Clearly not having ellsbury, salty and drew will take it's toll on projections, because as much as the baseball world thinks Bogaerts is ready, replacing the 3.4 of drew will probably not happen. Ditto Bradley from ellsbury, that's an easy 4 WAR drop on it's own probably, if not more. Add in regression of a few WAR total from lackey and maybe Ortiz, Victorino and Koji... That's pretty significant

 

You're making sense.......but still, I can't see them winning less than 90 games this year.

[Convo]

Well, we weren't exactly sending our best out there today

 

Romero, Happ, Drabek will be part of an expensive and mediocre AAA rotation

 

I really don't think we will have the good fortune of having Happ in AAA =[

[G-Snarls]

I really hope Romero pitches well this spring so we can give him away to Texas

 

Wish we could have sent him a package with Arencibia

[Abomination]

Pretty sure the blocked deal was:

 

Santos + JPA + Romero for Kinsler. But Kinsler's a stupid canadian hater!!!!

 

If that deal had gone through, no one would have ever had a right to complain about AA again lol.

[Dick_Pole]

Astros, Phillies, Mariners, Marlins, Blue Jays, White Sox, Twins, Brewers

 

The company we keep!

 

This is a sign that these projections are mostly an assumption have regression to averages. I would take a guess the highest projected improvement would of been the 2004 Detroit Tigers and that projection wouldn't of been too wrong.

[saskjayfan]

Not really. What stands out from the last two years is a BABIP about 40 points higher than his previous career average and a HR/FB more than double his career average. Over 340 PA for a 28/9 year old with 2500 career PA I don't see his recent success with the bat as any more than a lucky stretch.

 

he's been hanging with the babip king joey votto..what would you expect?

[AdamGreenwood]

We all (except me) questioned his pitch framing after one allegedly irrefutable report, at least until the next report came out.

Given that so many were mired in the position that JPA had terrible defense, the only tactic left to support that was to attack the one area of the game not currently quantified (game calling).

[GD]

allegedly irrefutable report

 

lol

Solid job Greenwood. 8/10.

[Olerud363]

Your continued use of the cancerous phrase "should of" is despairing me beyond belief. :-(

 

Just an fyi... for most people, especially when they are interacting in an informal context like a message board this kind of thing is mostly a result of slight dyslexia,.

 

I am well aware of the difference between "there" and "their" and "should have" and "should of"... but they still pop up in my messages, I often catch them if I re-read one of my own message but hardly ever see it while typing.

 

So nobody is trying to ruin your day. Hope that makes you feel better. Sorry for the distress I caused. Hopefuly (if you have kids) you don't go beat the crap out of them because of this. If you did I wouldn't feel like it was my fault for having bad grammer, it would be your fault for being a psycho and over-reacting.

[Olerud363]

This is a sign that these projections are mostly an assumption have regression to averages. I would take a guess the highest projected improvement would of been the 2004 Detroit Tigers and that projection wouldn't of been too wrong.

 

Projection systems are basically the average of what would happen if you played a season 100 times over. Most teams are 70 to 90 true talent, which translates to 55 to 105 in one season luck.

 

2002 Mariners regressed by 23.

[AdamGreenwood]

The title of this report is misleading.

This is a combination of the most improved teams, and the teams with the most underperforming players of 2013.

 

For instance, the way this report works, if Izturis has a -2 WAR in 2013, and then is projected to get 0.5 WAR in 2014, they're calling that an improvement of 2.5 WAR

[Smedley Butler]

Just an fyi... for most people, especially when they are interacting in an informal context like a message board this kind of thing is mostly a result of slight dyslexia,.

 

I am well aware of the difference between "there" and "their" and "should have" and "should of"... but they still pop up in my messages, I often catch them if I re-read one of my own message but hardly ever see it while typing.

 

So nobody is trying to ruin your day. Hope that makes you feel better. Sorry for the distress I caused. Hopefuly (if you have kids) you don't go beat the crap out of them because of this. If you did I wouldn't feel like it was my fault for having bad grammer, it would be your fault for being a psycho and over-reacting.

 

I'm allergic to that particular phrase because I grew up in England and that phrase was the almost-exclusive property of the trashiest class of white people you could ever hope to meet. Doesn't ruin my day, just makes you sound low-rent. ;-)

[G-Snarls]

Great point Greenwood. I'm sure Ju1ced has his best people working on a more appropriate title as we speak.

 

It's all we've been working on all day