The one and only Masahiro Tanaka posting and bidding thread

[xposbrad]

How's the sushi in TO? That could be big factor. If thats a fail the only real choice is to sign him to a 20year deal (i dont think 15 goes far enough) and offer him a front office position after that

 

(hope the sarcasm is obvious but you never know)

 

unfortunately LA is all sushi, how do you think all those anorexic models/actresses survive down there.

[DuckDuckGose]

unfortunately LA is all sushi, how do you think all those anorexic models/actresses survive down there.

 

You've clearly never been to LA. It's all Mexican food and salads.

[xposbrad]

You've clearly never been to LA. It's all Mexican food and salads.

 

Actually I've been twice, I have family there. There are tons of high end sushi places not just Nobu.

[Key22]

The ridiculous contract offer is to get other teams to pay more. After all LA said they won't be outbid - so offering Tanaka a massive contract is a way to get our competition to blow more money making it harder for them to fill other needs down the road. What's the problem?

 

 

As for my rolling Vesting idea - the player has to meet pitching success criteria. So if you give the guy a 7 year /$119 million contract that is $17 million a season. Do any of you think he will get less than this? Would you sign Tanaka for 7/$119 given that he's 25. I think most teams would strongly consider this and deem it a figure that it will likely take to get him. But the Jays are last place and less attractive place to play etc etc etc so the Jays have to do more.

 

I'm not exactly sure why the vesting option scares you off. For a vesting option to kick in the player has to perform. It's a second contract based on the performance of the first contract. If Tanaka doesn't perform then the second contract does not vest. There is far less risk to the Jays.

 

If the player meets the vesting criteria of innings pitched and CY young award finishing in the top 5 or whatever then you will have a player who is 32 year old who finished in the CY young voting top 5 in most of the years and pitched an average of say at least 170ip and in 2021 you would essentially be signing an elite 32 year old CY Young Caliber pitcher a 7/$119 million contract which in 2021 will likely be equal to a 7 year $84 million in today's money. That would be a bargain. Sure at the end of the contract he's be 39 - look at how Kuroda is doing and tell me he's not worth $17million relative to the market.

 

If Tanaka stinks - then we're done with him after 7 - the contract doesn't vest and we're safe. Take out insurance on his arm for injury so it doesn't hit payroll.

 

The only way the Jays land him is by being creative - something AA used to do.

[Chappy]

The only way the Jays land him is by being creative - something AA used to do.

 

What your suggesting isn't creative. Its potential franchise suicide.

[DuckDuckGose]

Actually I've been twice, I have family there. There are tons of high end sushi places not just Nobu.

 

Don't get me wrong comparatively speaking the West Coast in general has a fair bit of the population who is of Japanese decent. However, if you've gone you know it's Mexican food central, not sushi central. Up and down the West Coast there is good sushi, fresh sushi is the best sushi after all, it isn't limited to LA.

[Anemic0ffense]

The ridiculous contract offer is to get other teams to pay more. After all LA said they won't be outbid - so offering Tanaka a massive contract is a way to get our competition to blow more money making it harder for them to fill other needs down the road. What's the problem?

 

 

As for my rolling Vesting idea - the player has to meet pitching success criteria. So if you give the guy a 7 year /$119 million contract that is $17 million a season. Do any of you think he will get less than this? Would you sign Tanaka for 7/$119 given that he's 25. I think most teams would strongly consider this and deem it a figure that it will likely take to get him. But the Jays are last place and less attractive place to play etc etc etc so the Jays have to do more.

 

I'm not exactly sure why the vesting option scares you off. For a vesting option to kick in the player has to perform. It's a second contract based on the performance of the first contract. If Tanaka doesn't perform then the second contract does not vest. There is far less risk to the Jays.

 

If the player meets the vesting criteria of innings pitched and CY young award finishing in the top 5 or whatever then you will have a player who is 32 year old who finished in the CY young voting top 5 in most of the years and pitched an average of say at least 170ip and in 2021 you would essentially be signing an elite 32 year old CY Young Caliber pitcher a 7/$119 million contract which in 2021 will likely be equal to a 7 year $84 million in today's money. That would be a bargain. Sure at the end of the contract he's be 39 - look at how Kuroda is doing and tell me he's not worth $17million relative to the market.

 

If Tanaka stinks - then we're done with him after 7 - the contract doesn't vest and we're safe. Take out insurance on his arm for injury so it doesn't hit payroll.

 

The only way the Jays land him is by being creative - something AA used to do.

 

You lost me at "The"

[xposbrad]

AA just needs to stop pretending that TO has a chance with Tanaka, and just focus on some moves that have a chance of actually happening. After the whole Darvish fiasco, I have little faith in this team outbidding anyone. It can't be good for the PR of your team when you're linked to several good international free agents, and then you don't sign any of them, especially in the size market Toronto is playing in. Edited January 11, 2014 by xposbrad

[John_Havok]

AA should publicly offer a 15 year $375 million contract - forcing other clubs to pay more. Reducing luxury tax space of the Yankees or other teams has value. Baseball isn't a fair playing field like other sports - so play the REAL Game AA which is all about money.

 

If any GM offers a contract like this to a pitcher, they should fired on the spot. And if any GM who had stated they wouldn't be outbid saw someone else offer this contract they should pick up the phone and laugh in his face for being the biggest idiot GM in baseball history.

[Key22]

Chappy

 

Is a $119/7 year contract franchise suicide?

[John_Havok]

Chappy

 

Is a $119/7 year contract franchise suicide?

 

Wait, are you just saying that AA should publicly say he's willing to offer 15 years and 375 million, but not actually offer it to the player, just in the hopes that some other GM would actually believe it's real and think they have to pay more?

[Key22]

If any GM offers a contract like this to a pitcher, they should fired on the spot. And if any GM who had stated they wouldn't be outbid saw someone else offer this contract they should pick up the phone and laugh in his face for being the biggest idiot GM in baseball history.

 

This was a facetious example - however it is a smart play to force the competition to pay more than they want to. If you know the Yankees are going to sign the guy as the Jays organization you would much rather them sign him for an 8 year at $22 million per than 5 years at $15 million per. Since Tanaka isn't going to come here as we're not a "preferred city" I see no reason why it can't get out (a leak) to the other teams and the media that the Jays are "preparing an offer" of $20million per for 8 years - force the Dodgers, NYY etc to pay through the nose to reduce their ability to stay under the luxury tax threshold. It doesn't need to be a formal offer - just needs to get out what the Jays are "looking to do" and then drive the guy's price up. At this point when you have a top free agent who is NOT coming here - you want to do the next best thing you can keep him away from division rivals OR make them pay large to get him.

[John_Havok]

This was a facetious example - however it is a smart play to force the competition to pay more than they want to. If you know the Yankees are going to sign the guy as the Jays organization you would much rather them sign him for an 8 year at $22 million per than 5 years at $15 million per. Since Tanaka isn't going to come here as we're not a "preferred city" I see no reason why it can't get out (a leak) to the other teams and the media that the Jays are "preparing an offer" of $20million per for 8 years - force the Dodgers, NYY etc to pay through the nose to reduce their ability to stay under the luxury tax threshold. It doesn't need to be a formal offer - just needs to get out what the Jays are "looking to do" and then drive the guy's price up. At this point when you have a top free agent who is NOT coming here - you want to do the next best thing you can keep him away from division rivals OR make them pay large to get him.

 

I see what you're saying, but I don't think there's a GM in baseball that would buy that kind of rumour coming from The Jays when AA hasn't signed any free agent pitcher to a major league deal in the past 6 off seasons, and has a policy of not going over 5 years, even though AA himself has tried to project recently that he's willing to go over that for the right player.

 

Point being, I don't think anyone would believe it coming from AA, knowing his track record

[Abomination]

Point being, I don't think anyone would believe it coming from AA, knowing his track record

 

I don't think AA would do it even if people would believe him. He seems to be very careful to say nothing at all rather than taking even the chance of saying something that's not 100% truthful. Regardless, the teams involved will bid each other up just fine without our help.

[John_Havok]

I don't think AA would do it even if people would believe him. He seems to be very careful to say nothing at all rather than taking even the chance of saying something that's not 100% truthful. Regardless, the teams involved will bid each other up just fine without our help.

 

It's already starting with the dodgers and cubs both putting it out there that they won't be outbid.

[Lawrie22]

It's already starting with the dodgers and cubs both putting it out there that they won't be outbid.

 

The dodgers apparently did not say that.

"Meanwhile, Nightengale softens his stance in a pair of new tweets, noting that the Dodgers confirmed their interest but don't want to spend "wildly" or do anything crazy with their bid in order to land Tanaka."

From mlbtr

[Angrioter]

Boston screwed up with Dice-K and Yankees the same with Irabu.................It's time to the jays join to this group signing Tanaka for big money.

[Chappy]

Chappy

 

Is a $119/7 year contract franchise suicide?

 

When you add a 7 year option, yes.

[Key22]

When you add a 7 year option, yes.

 

Okay so let's say team ABC signs a pitcher for 7/$119 and at the end of that contract the pitcher has won 2 Cy Young awards and/or finished in the top 5 in CY Young Voting in five of 7 years and in the top 10 in the other two. The pitcher has pitched at least 170 innings in each season. That would be a high value contract and a great bargain relative to the market.

 

Fast forward to 2021 - you have this same player now on the FA market at the age of 32 where salaries will be much much higher than they are now. Such a terrific constantly top 5 pitcher would likely net a 7/210 million contract - Look at Sabathia/Lee/King Felix/Halladay as examples of guys all/were making at least $20million per season. Beurhle is close for heaven sake.

 

Jays fans would be ranting - sign him - open the wallet blah blah blah.

 

For the proposed option to kick in the guy has to pitch to pretty elite levels and if he pitches to pretty elite levels then the vesting option would be a bargain because we'd be paying $17million per for a guy who on the open market could be fetching $25m plus. In fact the motivation to sign such a deal would NOT be high for the player. If he doesn't pitch well the vesting option doesn't kick in - and if he is elite then he's going to be vastly underpaid in 2021.

 

Doesn;t matter now - The Yankees have $20million plus off the books and a $151 million payroll - they can easily spend $20 million+ per on this guy and give him 10 years if they want to.

[jaysfan2014]

No they can't. The $151M is only for the 13 players they owe money to. Once you add $17M-$20M for arb raises(estimated), $11M for insurance, and $5M budgeted for call ups, plus the $3M they will owe A-Rod for his bonus and 21 days after his suspension, the Yankees are at about $187-$190M. Signing someone like Tanaka will put them over the tax. And besides, the Yankees need a 3B and a bullpen arm still.

 

Remember, they changed the system so that teams like the Yankees couldn't give lowball deals to Japanese players after paying the posting fee.

[Chappy]

Okay so let's say team ABC signs a pitcher for 7/$119 and at the end of that contract the pitcher has won 2 Cy Young awards and/or finished in the top 5 in CY Young Voting in five of 7 years and in the top 10 in the other two. The pitcher has pitched at least 170 innings in each season. That would be a high value contract and a great bargain relative to the market.

 

Fast forward to 2021 - you have this same player now on the FA market at the age of 32 where salaries will be much much higher than they are now. Such a terrific constantly top 5 pitcher would likely net a 7/210 million contract - Look at Sabathia/Lee/King Felix/Halladay as examples of guys all/were making at least $20million per season. Beurhle is close for heaven sake.

 

Jays fans would be ranting - sign him - open the wallet blah blah blah.

 

For the proposed option to kick in the guy has to pitch to pretty elite levels and if he pitches to pretty elite levels then the vesting option would be a bargain because we'd be paying $17million per for a guy who on the open market could be fetching $25m plus. In fact the motivation to sign such a deal would NOT be high for the player. If he doesn't pitch well the vesting option doesn't kick in - and if he is elite then he's going to be vastly underpaid in 2021.

 

Doesn;t matter now - The Yankees have $20million plus off the books and a $151 million payroll - they can easily spend $20 million+ per on this guy and give him 10 years if they want to.

 

What happens if said player suffers a career threatening injury shortly after meeting the criteria for the option to qualify? A 1 year option, sure, several 1 year options all kicking in one year after the other, sure, but when your suggesting a 7 year option all kicking in at once, there is something really wrong with that type of structure. Not to mention the fact that you want this option to kick in when he turns 32 and is either already declining or about to decline.

[jays4life19]

Masahiro Tanaka Rumors: Sunday

By Edward Creech [January 12 at 2:15pm CST]

 

Earlier today, we learned the Cubs are prepared to offer Masahiro Tanaka a nine-figure contract and a National League GM expects one team will "come in and blow everyone away." Here's the latest on the top ranked player on MLBTR's 2014 Top 50 Free Agents list still on the market:

 

The level of the Dodgers' aggressiveness in pursuing in Tanaka may be defined by the progress, or lack thereof, in extension talks with Clayton Kershaw, according to ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider subscription required).

The Blue Jays have scouted Tanaka, but their reluctance to offer players seven-year contracts make it unlikely the prized right-hander will sign with Toronto, writes Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.

Also within Elliott's article, a source provides this scouting report on Tanaka: "Plenty of great Japanese hitters say his four-seam fastball and splitter are indistinguishable. His regular season was outstanding: 95-96 mph, four-seam fastball, location was great, velocity was great and an unhittable splitter, along with a hard slider."

Elliott's source also outlined what Tanaka will be seeking from potential suitors. "Tanaka wants to go to a World Series, wants a city where his family will feel at home since they don’t speak English. He has a desire to be on a team with potential to win and loves the pressure."

[Ehjays]

Masahiro Tanaka Rumors: Sunday

By Edward Creech [January 12 at 2:15pm CST]

 

Earlier today, we learned the Cubs are prepared to offer Masahiro Tanaka a nine-figure contract and a National League GM expects one team will "come in and blow everyone away." Here's the latest on the top ranked player on MLBTR's 2014 Top 50 Free Agents list still on the market:

 

The level of the Dodgers' aggressiveness in pursuing in Tanaka may be defined by the progress, or lack thereof, in extension talks with Clayton Kershaw, according to ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider subscription required).

The Blue Jays have scouted Tanaka, but their reluctance to offer players seven-year contracts make it unlikely the prized right-hander will sign with Toronto, writes Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.

Also within Elliott's article, a source provides this scouting report on Tanaka: "Plenty of great Japanese hitters say his four-seam fastball and splitter are indistinguishable. His regular season was outstanding: 95-96 mph, four-seam fastball, location was great, velocity was great and an unhittable splitter, along with a hard slider."

Elliott's source also outlined what Tanaka will be seeking from potential suitors. "Tanaka wants to go to a World Series, wants a city where his family will feel at home since they don’t speak English. He has a desire to be on a team with potential to win and loves the pressure."

 

AA did say the policy could change for the right player

[jays4life19]

AA did say the policy could change for the right player

 

Since Tanaka is much younger then the average FA, it would make sense if they would be willing to go over 5. Saying that i would still only offer 5 years and 100m + 20 posting max. I would make the pitch that this would allow him to enter the FA market again at age 30 and Toronto is a world class city for him and his family to live in.

 

I still don't think we have a chance though. Cubs, Dodgers or Yankees.

[jaysfan2014]

According to Orange County Register:

 

Bill Plunkett ‏@billplunkettocr

 

Masahiro Tanaka has returned to Japan after meeting with 8-9 teams in SoCal. Japanese reports Yankees, Cubs, DBacks specifically had meeting

 

We'll have to wait and see. My guess those teams are:

 

Dodgers, Angels, DBacks, Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox and Cubs, Red Sox, Mariners

[jaysfan2014]

He's likely Dodgers bound based on the sound of Tanaka wanting to go to a World Series.

[Olerud363]

What happens if said player suffers a career threatening injury shortly after meeting the criteria for the option to qualify? A 1 year option, sure, several 1 year options all kicking in one year after the other, sure, but when your suggesting a 7 year option all kicking in at once, there is something really wrong with that type of structure. Not to mention the fact that you want this option to kick in when he turns 32 and is either already declining or about to decline.

 

Exactly. Imagine if Pedro Martinez, or Johan Santana, or Roy Halladay had such an option.

 

Or what about Brandon Webb. Imagine they locked up his abitration years and then added a 5 year option based on performance in his 20s.

 

Not only would the option be disastrous but you could easily end up with the ridiculous scenario of a pitcher coming back for a last ditch useless comeback attempt also needing only a handful of innings to get 100+ million bucks.

[Key22]

What happens if said player suffers a career threatening injury shortly after meeting the criteria for the option to qualify? A 1 year option, sure, several 1 year options all kicking in one year after the other, sure, but when your suggesting a 7 year option all kicking in at once, there is something really wrong with that type of structure. Not to mention the fact that you want this option to kick in when he turns 32 and is either already declining or about to decline.

 

The vesting option can deal with your concern - "must not finish the final year o the disable list" - further the Jays take out an insurance policy on injury so if he blows his arm up insurance pays not the Jays.

 

And yes he'll be in decline but plenty of pitchers have been pitching effectively at 38-40.

 

I'd rather not offer such a contract to the guy but people here seem to want miracles. They don;t want to trade Sanchez or Stroman - which means we can't land a starting pitcher with enough talent to help us. People complain about the free agent market - but want a fragile arm waiting to explode guy in Garza. There's not much of a choice.

 

Tanaka is the choice it seems as a guy who could be Darvish like a number 2 not an ace and apparently at least $100,000,000 has been offered by the Cubs. It's going to take AA "blowing him away" I think in dollars and years that Jays fans aren't going to like either. It's a seller's market and the Jays are going to have to obscenely overpay be it money or talent. I'd rather the money since we have plenty of room under the luxury tax and Rogers could spend if they wanted to.

[saskjayfan]

The vesting option can deal with your concern - "must not finish the final year o the disable list" - further the Jays take out an insurance policy on injury so if he blows his arm up insurance pays not the Jays.

 

And yes he'll be in decline but plenty of pitchers have been pitching effectively at 38-40.

 

I'd rather not offer such a contract to the guy but people here seem to want miracles. They don;t want to trade Sanchez or Stroman - which means we can't land a starting pitcher with enough talent to help us. People complain about the free agent market - but want a fragile arm waiting to explode guy in Garza. There's not much of a choice.

 

Tanaka is the choice it seems as a guy who could be Darvish like a number 2 not an ace and apparently at least $100,000,000 has been offered by the Cubs. It's going to take AA "blowing him away" I think in dollars and years that Jays fans aren't going to like either. It's a seller's market and the Jays are going to have to obscenely overpay be it money or talent. I'd rather the money since we have plenty of room under the luxury tax and Rogers could spend if they wanted to.

 

Darvish is a number 2?

[saskjayfan]

I've heard Tanaka loves Toronto, he's signing here folks!!

 

Masahiro_ Tanaka_FTW!!!

 

are you sure you didn't hear that he loved that Kawasaki interview with the Toronto toque on?