Around Baseball 2014

[Abomination]

Optimal would be:

 

Reyes

Bautista

Lawrie

Encarnacion

Lind

Rasmus

Cabrera

Kendrick

Navarro

 

According to Steamer.

 

Worst hitter Navarro at 96 wRC+.

 

Kind of dislike the idea of Lind and Rasmus back to back, since lefty relievers aren't kind to either of them.

[Abomination]

In a perfect world Lind and Rasmus wouldn't face LH starters at all let alone in the 5-6 spots. I also cant see stacking up righties and lefties as being "optimal".

 

It was optimal according to Steamer stats I believe, not taking into account late game management and stuff.

[BlueJayWay]

Not sure if this has been posted before, but Clay Davenport's current projections for team records:

 

http://claydavenport.com/?p=207

[Angrioter]

Not sure if this has been posted before, but Clay Davenport's current projections for team records:

 

http://claydavenport.com/?p=207

 

Similar to my projection one week ago (Rays, Bos, Det, Tex, Angels - Nats, SL, Pirates, LAD, Giant)

[jaysfan2014]

http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2014/01/mlb_notes_yankees_still_understaffed

 

Jays rotation is 4th in the AL East, but we're not done yet, and they forgot about Nolin and Stroman. Yankees, even with Tanaka, lacks the depth to compete against Boston and Tampa Bay.

[KingKat]

You'll have a hard time to get anyone to believe that your most prolific power hitter should be batting in the 2 hole.

 

That's not what he said. He said you should have one of your two best hitters hitting 2nd. That and the fourth spot are where you should put your two best hitters and there's nothing wrong with putting the one with more power in the 4th spot just like there's nothing wrong with the traditional practice of putting a more one dimensional power hitter 5th. The only significant difference between a tradional and an optimized lineup is essentially flipping the 2 and the 3. You should put one of your best hitters (not necessarily a power hitter) in the 2 rather than the 3. That's it.

[connorp]

I missed it. How are we acquiring Kendrick again?

[jaysfan2014]

We aren't. Angels already got their SPs for their rotation in Skaggs and Santiago. And the Angels will likely sign a SP before the offseason is up, likely someone like Arroyo or Hammel or Malholm.

[KingKat]

Going off last years splits vs RHP the optimal lineup would look something like....

 

Bautista

Lind

Eddy

Navarro

Gump

Lawrie

Cabrera

Reyes

Goins

 

Lind and Navarro being your best hitters against RHP.

 

What stat are you using to determine who is the best hitter?

[Angrioter]

Going off last years splits vs RHP the optimal lineup would look something like....

 

Bautista

Lind

Eddy

Navarro

Gump

Lawrie

Cabrera

Reyes

Goins

 

Lind and Navarro being your best hitters against RHP.

 

 

 

This ------> http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/16/blue-jays-true-talent-offensive-platoon-splits/

[saskjayfan]

Going off last years splits vs RHP the optimal lineup would look something like....

 

Reyes

Lind

Gump

Eddy

Bautista

Cabrera

Lawrie

Navarro

Goins

 

Lind and Eddy being your best hitters against RHP.

 

vs LHP

 

Reyes

Bautista

Eddy

Navarro

Gump

Lawrie

Cabrera

Lind

Goins

 

Looking at this I can see this team having a sub .300 win percentage against LH starters this year. Gump,Lawrie,Lind,Melky and Goins had an Avg OPS around .600 last year.

 

Lawrie's career splits against Lefties are much better than they were last year....Melky had a tumour on his spine last year....maicer will play for goins and our tba bat will bat for Lind against lefty starters....speaking of which...come on AA go sign a right handed bat...

[Chappy]

46.8% of MLBTR readers would prefer to sign Santana over Ubaldo.

 

Santana is a solid SP. I would prefer Ubaldo, but I don't get why there is so much hate for him.

[connorp]

Santana is a solid SP. I would prefer Ubaldo, but I don't get why there is so much hate for him.

 

velo drop

[Chappy]

velo drop

 

I get that but he is still a decent SP and would be an improvement to our rotation.

[connorp]

I get that but he is still a decent SP and would be an improvement to our rotation.

 

I'm with you.. I think he's a 3 WAR SP like he has been until something changes.. don't see velo dipping any lower than it is.

[Chappy]

I'm with you.. I think he's a 3 WAR SP like he has been until something changes.. don't see velo dipping any lower than it is.

 

Coming into the winter I definitely wouldn't have wanted Santana as our primary offseason acquisition, but at this point, he is still a solid upgrade when you consider the depth behind him gets stronger.

[connorp]

Coming into the winter I definitely wouldn't have wanted Santana as our primary offseason acquisition, but at this point, he is still a solid upgrade when you consider the depth behind him gets stronger.

 

Oh s***.. I was talking about Jimi...lol

Santana is an upgrade too though.. I just don't like him as much.. depends what they can get him for, especially maybe a 3yr deal with him

[Laika]

Santana is a solid SP. I would prefer Ubaldo, but I don't get why there is so much hate for him.

 

Just kind of seems like a free agent landmine.

 

- Was disturbingly awful in 2012 (demonstrated downside is significant).

- Big questions about how his stuff would translate to the RC / AL East (has always pitched in HR suppressing parks).

- Lofty contract demands.

[Dr. Dinger]

Santana is a solid SP. I would prefer Ubaldo, but I don't get why there is so much hate for him.

 

Don't you have Santana on your trade block?

[Chappy]

Don't you have Santana on your trade block?

 

Lol. He might not be good enough for my staff, but he is for AA's.

[Angrioter]

Don't you have Santana on your trade block?

 

Very solid sell strategy!!

[Chappy]

Just kind of seems like a free agent landmine.

 

- Was disturbingly awful in 2012 (demonstrated downside is significant).

- Big questions about how his stuff would translate to the RC / AL East (has always pitched in HR suppressing parks).

- Lofty contract demands.

 

Yeah I don't disagree with this. I much prefer Jiminez, but for some reason I feel like Santana is more appealing to AA.

[Laika]

"Turning to the mound, Heyman said that Ubaldo Jimenez may now be willing to drop his salary demands and could ultimately land in the three-year, $39MM range."

 

Wow, if that happens and Toronto lands him, then AA's ostensible decision to wait the market out will end up being f***ing near genius.

[BabbaGanoush]

Would Burnett even entertain the thought of coming back here? I doubt it...

[TBJ12]

"Turning to the mound, Heyman said that Ubaldo Jimenez may now be willing to drop his salary demands and could ultimately land in the three-year, $39MM range."

 

Wow, if that happens and Toronto lands him, then AA's ostensible decision to wait the market out will end up being f***ing near genius.

 

Would landing Jimenez and Drew, for a reasonable cost, be enough to sway fans opinion of AA?

[Abomination]

"Turning to the mound, Heyman said that Ubaldo Jimenez may now be willing to drop his salary demands and could ultimately land in the three-year, $39MM range."

 

Wow, if that happens and Toronto lands him, then AA's ostensible decision to wait the market out will end up being f***ing near genius.

 

3/39 would be incredibly amazing.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

"Turning to the mound, Heyman said that Ubaldo Jimenez may now be willing to drop his salary demands and could ultimately land in the three-year, $39MM range."

 

Wow, if that happens and Toronto lands him, then AA's ostensible decision to wait the market out will end up being f***ing near genius.

 

Let's be real, it would be fluke luck for a front office that has shown no indication that they have a clue what they're doing.

[connorp]

Let's be real, it would be fluke luck for a front office that has shown no indication that they have a clue what they're doing.

 

Actually it kind of sounds like their MO.. they always inquire on FA but never are willing to pay market price.. so once in awhile players don't get nearly what theyre asking..

[Laika]

As you may have noticed, I actually immediately disagreed with my thought and deleted my post accordingly, but nonetheless I appreciate you looking into it and I especially like this line of reasoning that you whipped out:

 

"Eliminate all game leading off PA (which always have .87 LI), the number 1 spot gets a 1.016 LI/PA. You would think this location would be the lowest due to worst part of the lineup in front of them, but it's not."

[DuckDuckGose]

There is likely some selection bias here, but probably not that much. More data:

 

Slot LI/PA

1 0.9854

2 1.0028

3 0.9459

4 1.0108

5 1.0064

6 1.0096

7 0.9878

8 1.0007

9 0.9999

 

Unless the 1 and 2 hitters are the worst in the lineup by far, then it's likely not bias. It's more due to number 3 coming up in bad spots than number 3 creating good spots.

 

Eliminate all game leading off PA (which always have .87 LI), the number 1 spot gets a 1.016 LI/PA. You would think this location would be the lowest due to worst part of the lineup in front of them, but it's not.

 

Have you found that lineup construction causes LI variation down the order?