New Baseball America report - Jays as deep and talented at lower levels as any org

[GeorgiaPeach]

It's not just the ratio of pitchers to batters it's also the overwhelming proportion of low probability prospects. This list has D.J. Davis as the top position prospect. Davis may have tools, he may have upside but he also has bust written all over him. It's all low minors guys and toolsy guys. We've seen this show before. Dickie Thon Jr. is practically the poster boy for Jays position prospects. It's all projection and conjecture and no results.

 

I don't remember too much projection for Thon. I remember a lot of college/pro' chatter. But I don't remember his tools being talked up, or how great he was.

[KingKat]

I don't remember too much projection for Thon. I remember a lot of college/pro' chatter. But I don't remember his tools being talked up, or how great he was.

 

I remember the BP guys talking him up in their podcasts. I don't think he ever rated very high on prospects lists but that's also a reflection of how deep the system was at the time. Thon just strikes me as a good example of a prospect that was easy to dream on because he was so far away and he received that big bonus which seemed indicative of upside. Sometimes it seeems like the Jays just automatically equate high risk with high upside but that's no less a fallacy than when the JPR regime seemed to associate low upside with low risk.

[KingKat]

Also that Sanchez is the no. 1 prospect solely based on the upside that he'll probably never reach, because his walk rate is still below average in Hi-A Ball. I agree mostly on Davis as well, he's done really nothing to show that he's capable of actually being able to hit and get on base at a respectable rate. Plus, that K rate is simply disgusting. Of course, he COULD learn to hit and cut that K rate down significantly, but what has he done that leads anyone to believe it?

 

Stroman is clearly the best prospect IMO. He's shown so much more than Sanchez and it's not like he doesn't have some upside of his own. If he wasn't short, it probably wouldn't even be up for debate.

[Maine Jays]

Best Power - Rowdy Tellez

I have no idea what position this kid plays, but I so want him to make it to Toronto with a name like that. Anyone have any info on him? I'm too lazy/busy to look up myself.

[TwistedLogic]

Best Power - Rowdy Tellez

I have no idea what position this kid plays, but I so want him to make it to Toronto with a name like that. Anyone have any info on him? I'm too lazy/busy to look up myself.

 

He's a massive, Fielder-like first baseman that we drafted last year (2013 draft) and nobody thought we'd be able to sign him. Has ridiculous power. He was my favourite 2013 draft acquisition by a wide margin.

[G-Snarls]

He's a massive, Fielder-like first baseman that we drafted last year (2013 draft) and nobody thought we'd be able to sign him. Has ridiculous power. He was my favourite 2013 draft acquisition by a wide margin.

 

Holy s*** look at the size of this guy, you're right

 

http://powershowcase.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/CA-TELLEZ-9397-BAT-7TH.jpg

 

SSS:

 

2 HR in 141 PA in rookie ball this year

[TwistedLogic]

SSS:

 

2 HR in 141 PA in rookie ball this year

 

Fix: 2 HR, 3 triples http://i.imgur.com/py2PxcN.gif

 

What the hell was going in the Gulf Coast league?

[Chappy]

Our farm will be alright in a few years time, so much gloom on this topic, but we're far from f***ed, especially after this years rule 4.

 

It's just the popular opinion to bash everything Jays right now. I remember how several were saying our farm would be bottom 5 last winter after the trades and we were much better than that. We're extremely weak at the upper levels, but that is a stretch from saying our farm is terrible, we just have a very young crop of prospects and with that comes a lot more uncertainty.

[TwistedLogic]

You can argue that this runs true to every Org about ballplayers panning out?!

 

No, you can't really argue that it runs true for every org because no other team in the majors drafts 100% ceiling the way the Jays do. Everyone picks at least a few safe players, the Jays only draft guys with huge ceiling and huge bust rates. It is a legitimate concern because yes you can end up with stars, but if you end up on the unlucky end, as the Jays almost always seem to do, you'll have 0 prospects pan out at the major league level, a trend that has haunted the Jays since Roy Halladay.

[Angrioter]

Mitch Nay

Best Strike-Zone Discipline + Bat speed + 70-grade raw power + 3B = David Wright-esque

 

Scouting Report: With a large frame and strong build, the physical Nay has the potential to a middle-of-the-order hitter with power and on-base ability. In extended spring training, Nay raised his hitting load, got rid of his bat waggle and shortened his stride, shortening his swing path. He has bat speed and quick hands and makes hard contact to all fields. Scouts praise his contact ability, up-the-middle approach and ability to drive the ball to right field. He could be an above-average hitter to go with his 70-grade raw power. He has an advanced approach and should get on base at an above-average clip. Nay, who has a plus arm, is a below-average runner with adequate range but good hands at third. He led Appy League third basemen with 17 errors, and improving his lateral quickness and pre-pitch setup will be key for him to remain at the position.

 

 

Top-100 prospect next season

[Angrioter]

He's a massive, Fielder-like first baseman that we drafted last year (2013 draft) and nobody thought we'd be able to sign him. Has ridiculous power. He was my favourite 2013 draft acquisition by a wide margin.

 

King Kalfus?

[TwistedLogic]

Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins agree, maybe it's an org development problem, maybe it's just pure s*** luck, who knows? The attrition rate is what it is mate, you could be right, as I recall everyone and there sister were out for JPR's head for acquiring safer college picks, it's a two way street, but I'm all about getting BPA. There's no right and wrong, it's hit or miss, a crapshoot if you will. Than development comes into play, where does our problem lie?

 

It doesn't have to be "safer college picks" the way JPR was drafting those garbage arms. Stroman was an excellent safe pick, but that's all we've gotten under this regime. There are lots of ways to use high draft picks to pick up guys that have a decent chance of making the majors, just based on their mechanics and results. These scouts should be able to tell what kind of a pitcher has a repeatable delivery, a low chance of injury (barring freak ones of course) and a decent floor. None of these things mean that you have to draft chumps like Deck McGuire.

 

It would also help to get a few more position players in the draft, as they usually have a slightly higher chance of panning out than pitchers. Though, this one I won't put against AA, as I know he wanted Austin Meadows last year and he got snatched away right before our pick. Can't really fight the "best available player" philosophy.

[TwistedLogic]

Yes, except they have their own objective way to determine the "BPA" which right now is purely ceiling. If they use that mentality on every single pick, year in and year out, they're never going to develop as many major leaguers as other organizations do because of the incredibly high bust rate on prospects like that.

[TwistedLogic]

Lets see what happens in June, we can revisit this, I'm not going to pretend what's going to happen moving forward, I've agreed with you on this topic last June, we'll see.

 

I'm looking forward to this draft as well. Let's just hope that's not the only thing we have to look forward to (for the 21st year in a row )

[cusstown]

Fat greek fat greek durrrrrrrrrr

[fireballW]

No, you can't really argue that it runs true for every org because no other team in the majors drafts 100% ceiling the way the Jays do. Everyone picks at least a few safe players, the Jays only draft guys with huge ceiling and huge bust rates. It is a legitimate concern because yes you can end up with stars, but if you end up on the unlucky end, as the Jays almost always seem to do, you'll have 0 prospects pan out at the major league level, a trend that has haunted the Jays since Roy Halladay.

 

How is any of this even true. Stroman was considered one of the closest to the majors when drafted. He was a safe pick unless you are saying he wsn't based completely on his height. They have had more than a few early, safe picks.

[fireballW]

Yes, except they have their own objective way to determine the "BPA" which right now is purely ceiling. If they use that mentality on every single pick, year in and year out, they're never going to develop as many major leaguers as other organizations do because of the incredibly high bust rate on prospects like that.

 

The idea is they want to develop elite prospects, because you can get the other type of player easily enough. They are always available through trade or FA, but the elite guys are not. It is a good strategy, not to mention these are the kind of guys other teams want to trade for. When they are dealing for prospects, teams want the high ceiling prospects they can sell to their fans.

[TwistedLogic]

How is any of this even true. Stroman was considered one of the closest to the majors when drafted. He was a safe pick unless you are saying he wsn't based completely on his height. They have had more than a few early, safe picks.

 

I mentioned Stroman as one of, if not the only exception.

 

And even Stroman is no longer considered as safe a pick as he was on draft day. He is/was safe to be a reliever, not in the role that the Blue Jays are attempting to mould him into, which is a top-flight starter.

[fireballW]

Deck McGuire was about as safe a pick as you could get and that turn out much better. Drafting for elite talent for me is the way to go, although I don't even agree about how risky some of our players are. The problem is a lot of fans still get excited and hopeful over guys putting up ridiculously bad k/BB rates as hitters. The guys in our system right now at least finally seeem like a bunch of GOOD hitters at pretty important positions. We finally have some players in our system that seem to have all around hitting talent.

[GD]

What is everyones thoughts on L.B. Dantzler? Is his bat legit?

 

.345 BABIP..

 

Lol @ Oliver projecting him to be J.P. Arencibia at 1B (23 HRs, .302 OBP, .3 fWAR).

[kgm1]

Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins agree, maybe it's an org development problem, maybe it's just pure s*** luck, who knows? The attrition rate is what it is mate, you could be right, as I recall everyone and there sister were out for JPR's head for acquiring safer college picks, it's a two way street, but I'm all about getting BPA. There's no right and wrong, it's hit or miss, a crapshoot if you will. Than development comes into play, where does our problem lie?

 

I have been saying for a long time that our player development system needs an overhaul . Unfortunately AA loyalty to his staff seems solid in spite of their failure . One only has to look at the much heralded 2007 draft class failure as an example. We draft as good as any . We are however going to really miss Marco Paddy

[Jays]

.345 BABIP..

 

Lol @ Oliver projecting him to be J.P. Arencibia at 1B (23 HRs, .302 OBP, .3 fWAR).

 

That's well above the Arencibia Line.

[Key22]

When AA took over and when he was considered a GOD of GM's he said at the very beginning that he would take high risk high ceiling guys. As he noted from the very beginning that is easy to sign major league players to fill holes - it's very hard to sign all-star caliber players. So the view is to draft guys who could possibly become Roger Clemens type arms who may but over 3 guys who will definitely turn out to be JA Happ. Sure you can sign 3 JA Happs or you can roll the dice on 3 guys like Clemens - maybe none of them work out but if one does - then it makes the entire draft for that year.

 

And this is the truth of the Jays' situation - no good free agent will sign here - the FA can sign for the same money and play on a proven winner. Unless the Jays pull a Seattle Mariners and pay $70 million more than New York's offer to land Cano then we're not getting the cream of the free agent crop. the only hope to get star caliber winners with big WAR that everyone wants is to draft them and wait 5-7 years (too long) or draft them and trade them for the star players you can't hope to sign as free agents.

 

I certainly get the AA is bad for trading some prospects but in the AL East you need a team full of studs to win. By the time any of the draft picks are ready EE and Bautista and Rasmus would likely be gone. Do we have any draft picks that can replace Bautista and EE and Rasmus and Reyes in 3 years? With Syndergaard and D'Arnaud were we going to be able to have a farm ready to give us 5 number 3 starters or better within 3 years? Probably going to need at least 1 ace?

 

It's as much about timing as anything else - Keeping 4 great prospects is great but in 5 years even if all 4 work out as predicted/hoped you still only got 4 players. It doesn;t help if the great prospect comes up and merely replaces a guy like Beurhle - you need the prospect to come up at the same time that you got Beurle and he not only has to come up he has to give you 190+ innings of number 3 or better quality pitching because number 4 starter fodder can be found anywhere.

[TheHurl]

BA Chat about the Jays list. Meant to post this yesterday but got drunk instead.

 

Clint Longenecker: Thanks for stopping in today. Toronto has a very fun system to discuss with a lot of high ceiling talents that are far away from the majors and a top-flight duo of righthanders at the top of the system.

 

Ben (Leland Grove): Had he signed, where would Phil Bickford have ranked on your list? Thanks Clint.

Clint Longenecker: -Bickford, an interesting arm capable of touching 97 that was only 17 on draft day, likely would have made the list, which would have only added to an embarrassment of power arms at the lower levels. He would fit best into the 8-10 range. Although a reasonable argument could be made to have him higher, he would have to displace someone with pro experience.

 

Grant (NYC): What is the consensus opinion of Jake Brentz, and was he considered for your list?

Clint Longenecker: -Brentz was not a strong consideration for the top 10 because of how new he is to pitching and the longer developmental track he is expected to be on. As an athletic lefthander that has touched 97, Brentz has potential top 10 talent but he is making mechanical alterations to his delivery that will likely improve his control drastically. He could certainly make a push for the top 10 in the next few years.

 

Dave (Hackensack, NJ): Between RHPs Chase DeJong and Clinton Hollon, who ranked higher for you and why? Could you give us a brief rundown of both?

Clint Longenecker: -DeJong did, as he ranked No. 11. He was in earlier cuts of the top 10 and was tough to move out. He is an exciting guy. The thumbnail report is that DeJong profiles to pitch with a plus fastball, plus curveball and his changeup could emerge as plus (as it has made considerable developmental strides). DeJong projects to also have plus control with a body that will hold up in the rotation. Hollon, who has a ton of upside and was not far off from DeJong, could rise quickly on this list. Hollon is a plus athlete that can touch 95, 96 and sit in the low to mid-90s. His slider is plus and both his curveball and changeup have the potential to also be above-average offerings. With a deep arsenal, athleticism and pitchability, Hollon has the ceiling of at least a No. 3, with an outside shot at a No. 2. Of the guys outside the top 10 that could make a jump he is probably the guy.

 

Paul (Miami FL): What do you think of 3B Matt Dean's skillset at the hot corner and behind the plate?

Clint Longenecker: Although Matt Dean was drafted as a third baseman and has the skills to play there defensively, he saw the vast majority of his time at first base at Bluefield this season because Mitch Nay, the No. 4 prospect in the system, played third. If they move together on a similar developmental track, Dean will likely see most of his time at first. Dean had a strong season at Bluefield and made significant mechanical adjustments that enabled his success. He shortened his stride significantly this year, which really helped him against breaking balls and being able to drive the ball to right field. He showed dedication to his craft as he kept a book in the dugout to document every pitch he saw during every at-bat. He could have plus power production if the hit tool continues to develop. But he will have to cut down on his swing and miss, as he struck out in over one-quarter of his plate appearances in his repeat of the Appy League.

 

Sammy (DC): Deck McGuire - prospect or suspect at this point?

Clint Longenecker: McGuire is still a prospect in that he has the chance to contribute at the ML level, but his prospect status certainly has diminished. But he still could fill the role of a No. 5 starter because of his deep arsenal and control.

 

Ben (Leland Grove): Is Kevin Pillar an average regular or a 4th OF in your opinion? Did he reach your 11-20 range?

Clint Longenecker: Pillar, who has exceeded expectations at every level after being drafted in the 32nd round in 2011, has the ceiling of a second-division regular and is in the 11-20 range. Although he struggled in his brief time in the majors, Pillar could contribute in as a versatile defender capable of playing all three outfield spots and plays against lefties and contributes in 400+ plate appearances. The tough thing for a player with this skillset is the small benches in the modern game, as this type of player is much less prevalent than years ago.

 

Frank (Chicago, IL): Matt Smoral had his struggles this year. What does he need to inprove on, and is he in your 30?

Clint Longenecker: He is absolutely in the top 30 and in the teens. He will need to improve his strike throwing ability and control, which is easy to decipher given that he walked nearly 20 percent of the hitters he faced in his brief 25 GCL innings. He is currently working on speeding up his arm out of his glove, as he used to have a pregnant pause in his arm action action that is not dissimilar to CC Sabathia, although it was not a stab. The Jays have worked on compacting his arm action, as his arm stroke had a lot of length in the back, and raising his arm slot to work downhill more. His stride landing and getting over his front side are also points of emphasis. It may take Smoral awhile to develop, as there has only been one 6’8 or taller lefthander (Sean West) to start a major league game. This is just a body type and profile that is rarely seen and will often take longer to develop. But the ceiling is high and the dream is big.

 

@Jaypers413 (IL): What's the word on Anthony Alford's choice of career?

Clint Longenecker: Great question that is remains uncertain at this point. Alford, the starting quarterback as a freshman, transferred to Ole Miss and had to sit out this fall but spent time with the team. He received a redshirt, which might further delay his return to the diamond, as he now has another year on the gridiron. But the saving grace might be that he does not project as a high-profile NFL draft pick (at this point), which might push him back to the diamond.

 

Wanda (Baltimore, MD): Who do you prefer between Taylor Cole and John Stilson, and do both project as RPs down the line?

Clint Longenecker: Stilson, as he is closer to the majors and has the greater probability of contributing at the ML level. Stilson, who did not start a game this year, will be a full-time reliever going forward. With a plus-plus fastball, two legiamte offspeed weapons in his changeup and breaking ball and an aggressive mentality suited for the late game, Stilson could see time at the ML level next year. He profiles as an 7th/8th inning reliever. Cole, a 6-1 RHP with below-average fastball velocity, does not profile as a starter long-term.

 

@Jaypers413 (IL): How close did Rowdy Tellez come to making the cut, and what would you grade his power at on the 20-80 scale?

Clint Longenecker: Tellez isin the teens. He has the potential to be a potent lefthanded bat. He has 70 grade raw power capable of showing majestic power in batting practice, especially to his pull side. But, more importantly, his power has a chance to play because of his hit tool, hand-eye coordination and ability to drive the ball to the opposite field gap.

 

Ben (Leland Grove): I know it's early, but as you're BA's resident draft guru, I gotta ask - who would you choose for the Blue Jays if the 2014 draft was held today?

Clint Longenecker: Tough to say at this point but I dont think its premature to say that the Jays could look heavily at pitchers, given that both on the high school and college side the strength of the class is the depth of arms. This compliments the current regime’s draft history, as they have shown a strong commitment to collecting arms at the top of the draft. In the four years under the current regime, the Jays have spent 75 % of their top-5 round picks on pitchers, compared to the industry average of 49.7%.

 

James (Poultney, VT): Kevin Pillar has hit at every stop in the minors while being somewhat old at each level. He struggled in his MLB debut. Do you see him making the adjustments to be a productive big leaguer and will that be as a second division regular or is he more of a 4th outfielder?

Clint Longenecker: You’re right, with a .206/.250/.333 at the ML level, Pillar struggled for the first time as a pro. But small sample size caveats apply as it was only 110 PAs. But his strike rate jumped to 26% and was especially susceptible to offerings outside the strike zone. Key decision-makers I have spoken with believe he can make adjustments because he has plus intangibles and one of the most compact and direct swings you will ever see. At the ML level, skills, adaptability and game awareness play. And he stands a cut above the rest in all those regards. With the proper adjustments he could be a second-division regular. A very well-respected evaluator summarized Pillar very well for me saying, “Although a big league club might want to look at somebody with biggers tools, in the long run players like Pillar will end up with a better career than many of those guys because he knows how to play the game.” It will be fascinating to watch him over the next few years.

 

Dwight (Winnipeg): Sanchez has reportedly altered his delivery and concerns have been expressed that he is less effective as a result. What was the reason for the change and will this affect his projectabiity to be a potential #1 starter?

Clint Longenecker: This has been a hot-button topic on the internet of late. The reason is simple, Sanchez has had trouble throwing strikes, as his 2012 walk rate was 51 higher than league average. The organization believed that Sanchez was getting under the ball, causing him to miss up and armside too frequently. In an attempt to get him on top of the ball more and working downhill, Sanchez shortened his stride (because he was often late into foot strike, which caused him finishing up and arm side). By reducing the amount of time his stride leg was in the air, the variables were reduced. And he began to work over the ball more, getting more plane to the plate and throwing more strikes. His walk rate improved to 31 percent above league average. Many people have pointed out that he is more upright in his delivery and this is true because he used to tilt on his backside a little bit, but this has been reduced. That is where things stand presently, and he groundball rate was well above-average this year, demonstrating that he is working over the ball more and has at least plus fastball life. After getting more comfortable with this aspect of his delivery, Sanchez ideally should be able to increase his stride length to where it was before while maintaining that plane to the plate. So, expect further adjustments going forward. If this was not clear please let me know and I will try to clarify.

 

Dan (Toronto): What kind of feedback did you get on Richard Urena? Did he land in your top 30

Clint Longenecker: Richard Urena is yet another exciting product of the international pipeline. Reports are that Urena may have the best chance to stick at SS of the current Latin American SSs (Lugo, Barreto, etc.). He is a smooth, agile defender with good quickness and a lithe body. The larger questions center around his bat, as he has an unusual setup with his hands very low in his setup. Think at least half way down his torso. This is obviously a very tough position to hit from. His glove will carry him.

 

Jeremy Jeffress (Cloud Nine): They're telling me I'll get a shot at the rotation! I have a new-found lease on life. I can do this, right?

Clint Longenecker: With pitching, you can never rule anything or anybody out, especially when you are looking at premium talents like Jeffress, who is still just 26. While is it not probable that Jeffress remains in the rotation, he has a plus-plus fastball and gets groundballs at a well above-average rate. Far stranger things have happened. Scott Kazmir was last seen with a mid-80s fastball in 2011 before returning to post the lowest walk rate of his career. You never know with pitching.

 

Todd (Chicago, IL): What do you think of Rudy Tellez? He was touted as one of the best power hitting HS players in this draft, could he be a possible impact bat in the future?

Clint Longenecker: Tellez could be a middle-of-the-order run producer if everything clicks. The offensive potential is loud. Unlike many guys with big-time raw power, Tellez has the potential to use that power in game action. He drives the ball well to all fields, tracks pitches well and could walk at an above-average clip. Although his 2013 line (.234/.319/.371) was not superb it was only 141 PAs and the Jays made early-season mechanical adjustments to his swing. He really finished strong. Tellez was young for the class, which only enhances his chances.

 

Eric (Toronto ON): How many of these players do you think can make BA's top 100 prospects list next year?

Clint Longenecker: -The top two players, Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, are virtual locks for the top 100 for this year. Given that the majority of players on top 100 lists historically have already seen time at full season ball and usually have played in the upper minors, I’m not sure any other player has better than a 50/50 shot to make the top 100 this year. Roberto Osuna, who was lost for the year with TJ surgery, likely would make the list (potentially the top 50) if not for his injury. Saying that there are only two locks does not denigrate the system, because there is a ton of talent, it more speaks to the way top 100 lists are conducted, which weighs full-season time heavily. Given this exciting and deep crop of talent at the lower levels, the Jays could have a strong presence on future top 100s. Next year Sanchez will likely still be eligible, if Osuna returns to health he will likely make the top 100. Norris would have a very strong chance. Given the depth of talent that is likely to be on the Lansing club next year, you could easily see two or three players from that group in top 100 consideration. There could be a strong contingent of Jays.

 

James (Poultney, VT): Catcher AJ Jimenez reached AAA this year after a successful return from TJ surgery in 2012. What are scouts thoughts about his future behind the dish and at the plate?

Clint Longenecker: Jimenez projects to have a long career because of his defensive prowess. He arm was still rounding back into shape this year, understandable given his time off, and it kept him out of some games at the end of the year. He could be a plus defender and will likely grade out will in pitch framing metrics at the ML level given the reports on his receiving and framing skills. To provide quantitative proof of his defensive ability, there were 157 catchers that played at AAA this year. Only 6 catchers had a higher career caught stealing percentage (43%), which put him in the 96th percentile for this comparison set. He has quick feet, blocks well and strong leadership ability. He has every trait desired in a backstop. His glove will carry him but he has hitting potential too. He has plus bat speed and above-average raw power but his line-drive swing limits his potential power production. He could hit 10 home runs given his natural strength with a ton of doubles. The ceiling of his hit tool is a 50, with 40 being more likely. This is a valuable asset for any org.

 

James (Poultney, VT): Chase DeJong had a nice season at Bluefield and seems like he's a projectible RHP with solid control, but his stuff didn't seem to jump forward much this past season. Do the Jays anticipate an uptick in stuff with him to project as plus in the future?

Clint Longenecker: DeJong has a very projectable body and didnt quite add as many pounds as anticipated throughout the year. Evaluators inside and outside the organization expect his fastball velocity to eventually reach 90-94 mph and touch 95. Scouts love his arm action. His offspeed pitches could both be plus and consistently flash plus, but DeJong just needs to narrow the gap between the present and future grades of those offerings, which is true of nearly every pitcher in the lower minors. But DeJong’s curveball could be a wipeout offering. An opposing pitching coach is in the Appy League told me “his CB has the potential to be one that defines a pitcher’s career.” Theres a lot to like here.

 

Ryan (Birdland): Mitch Nay's counterpart across the diamond last year helped form a formidable lineup. Obviously Nay has more prospect value than Matt Dean so long as Nay is at thirdbase, but can you quickly compare the 2 offensively? Thanks!

Clint Longenecker: Although not exactly the same, they have similar power potential. Both have big-time raw power and can drive the ball out of any part of the park. The difference comes in the utility of the hit tool and the overall approach, and both of these all the power to play. Nay struck out in only 13.6 % of his PA and Dean struck out in 24.5% of his, and this was in Dean’s second season in the league. Nay’s approach is lauded and he has a discerning eye, walking in nearly 10% of PAs versus 6% for Dean. This is not to crush Dean, who has made serious strides in the last year, but to show the ways they are different and why so many evaluators believe that Nay can be an above-average hitter.

 

Dan (Augusta, ME): Is Andy Burns destined to become a utility guy or does he have the upside of a starter? Thanks.

Clint Longenecker: Burns had a breakout campaign. Evaluators had a wide range of opinions on Burns. Guys who like him see an above-average defender at third base with at least an average hit tool and power, to go with strong baserunning and game instincts. Others see a fringy regular and one that would better be suited in a super-utility role. He could play 3B, 2B, 1B and the outfield. Burns will likely fill the role that best serves the big league club, which for the time being will likely be as a super-utility role, but Burns does have his backers as an everyday regular. He is an eye of the beholder type of guy.

 

Ryan (Birdland): Last year John Stilson ranked 7th and I don't think his season was disappointing. He advanced to Triple-A and was pretty successful. What led to him falling out of the top 10? Was he only there before because there was still a chance he remained a starter? Was he close to the top 10 this year?

Clint Longenecker: Good question, Ryan. This is my first year at BA and doing the Jays system and I disagreed with his No. 7 placement last year. Nathan Rode, my predecessor, did a great job with the list but I would have had Stilson lower, not because of his talent but because of his talent is used. He will because he is a full-time reliever and there is certainly a ceiling how to valuable any reliever can be. Only 45 relievers were worth 1+ fWAR last year and they have such a high volatility rate. Stilson is arguably the closest to the majors and could make an impact next year. He was in the teens this year.

 

Brett (Columbus, OH): What do your reports on Miguel Castro say? What's his potential ceiling?

Clint Longenecker: Tough to say because he spent so little time stateside, is so young (18) and has so much developmental time left. But he could be a stud. Now this is a body you can dream on. He is big (6’5), very lean and oozes projection. Guys that look like this end up playing on TV some day. He can touch 96 and has feel for turning over a pretty good CH. He throws from a low arm slot and will likely be very tough on some side hitters, as he has a long stride, the ball jumps out of his hand and his fastball has life from a tough slot. Keep Castro in mind because the dream is big and the ceiling is high.

 

Dan (Toronto): Who are some of the prospects in the system that the Blue Jas feel have the best make up/character

Clint Longenecker: Great question, Dan. Mitch Nay is widely praised for his work ethic, intensity, love for the game and ability to take to instruction. Tom Robson, who improved as much as any Jay this year, really took to the organization’s instructions and has makeup that allow his tools to play up. Tangentially related, two years ago I was sitting with a Blue Jays crosschecker at an extended spring game and he was raving about Robson’s makeup. He called Robson “an All-American type of young man,” which speaks volumes about his makeup and is also funny because he is, in fact, Canadian. Labourt, who lost a lot of weight and became a fiercer competitor, also draws praise.

 

Ben (DC): How close did Clint Hollon come to the Top 10? It seems like he is another high ceiling young arm who had a very strong first year after the draft.

Clint Longenecker: He was very, very close but the lack of pro track record put him behind the other guys. But he could have 4 above-average to plus pitches with an aggressive mentality and strike-throwing ability. He could really jump on next year’s list. One of the better athletes in the system. He could be a stud.

 

Ryan (Birdland): Rowdy Tellez really seemed to improve as the season went along last summer. Did he continue that progress in instructions? And does he have a shot at full season ball in 2014, or will he have to march a level behind Matt Dean?

Clint Longenecker: Ryan, very perceptive of you. He did. Much of it can be attributed to the mechanical changes to made shortly after signing. They altered his stride to make him more consistent. Although his talent could play at a full season club with a strong offseason, the Jays like to develop their prospects at Bluefield and in extended spring training. That is what the organization’s track record for high school draftees demonstrates. He has a potential impact bat.

 

Dave (New York City): Did John Stilson's disappointing AFL contribute to his dropping out of the Top 10? Is he still a candidate for the Jays' 2014 pen, or is the AFL a sign that his durability will keep him at Buffalo for another year?

Clint Longenecker: His AFL had literally nothing to do with his status. It was solely a byproduct of his moving to the rotation full-time and the differences between the way that my predecessor and I value relief prospects. That said, I dont think his durability will keep him at Buffalo because AA has shown that he views the roster spots in the bullpen and rotation (dependent on performance, certainly) as highly fluid. No team has used more pitchers over the last 3 years. Each of the last 3 years, the Jays have used more than 30 or more pitchers, and there is a strong chance Stilson is one of those 30 this year (if the track record is maintained).

 

Ryan (Birdland): Hidden behind terrible starting pitching, the bullpen looks very strong to me. Janssen has been solid. Delabar has really established himself the last 2 years and Sergio Santos is back. And then the Jays have 2 young guys who look like they could fit in the back of a bullpen in Jeremy Jeffress & John Stilson. How do see them fitting into this bullpen? Do you think Jeffress has finally turned a corner?

Clint Longenecker: The pen did a have a strong year. Which is great considering how many innings they had to throw. Typically there is a strong inverse correlation between bullpen innings and performance but they accrued the second most innings in the AL last year and had the 4th best ERA. There could be some regression coming though as the pen was 12th in the AL in FIP and 8th in xFIP. A strong gound-ball crew (46.5%) though. They have considerable bullpen depth and the previously mentioned arms only add to it. Jeffress did improve his control last year but he is going to have to prove it at the ML level because his walk rates have a shown a pronounced difference between AAA and the ML level.

 

Formerly the Smasher (Canada): What can you tell me about Dwight Smith jr? Has the pedigree and seemed to have a pretty good year?

Clint Longenecker: Smith Jr. might be the most consistent offensive player in the organization. His hit tool is his carrying tool with a compact swing and good bat to ball ability. His arm, which was previously below-average, has improved to at least average. He used his speed well on the bases with a stolen base rate of 83%. He faces a tough profile though as he does not project to have plus power, although he has a strong, compact build. But hitters hit and he could hit his way to the ML level, but will have to hit at every level and show the on-base ability to make up for his lack of over the fence power. But he will likely hit a bunch of doubles.

 

Formerly the Smasher (Canada): Can you give me one pitcher and one position player who may not rank near the top of the Jays prospect list but that could be a big sleeper in 2014?

Clint Longenecker: Gladly, CF Dalton Pompey ranked outside the top 10 and could make a big jump next year. Pompey, a 2010 draftee from Canada, has been turning his tools into skills and profiles as a plus defender in CF. He has a great, sleek and athletic body to go with a plus arm. Pompey is a glider in CF that covers the gaps well. Oh ya, he is a switch-hitter too with plus athleticism. He has a surprisingly good idea of the strike zone for a hitter with such limited experience. Pompey has really excited a lot of people in the organization over the last year. Pitcher- Hollon is the pitcher but I have already discussed in at length. A sleeper for 2014 is Justin Jackson, a former supplemental first-rounder as a SS who converted to the mound. A plus athlete, Jackson has taken to pitching quickly. He has a great body, mid-90s fastball with plus life and surprising feel for a CH (a testament to his athleticism). His SL is improving. Jackson is likely limited to the pen (limiting his value), but he has a chance to contribute at the ML level someday. If the question asked for a big sleeper but not for 2014 I would have said Patrick Murphy, the org’s 2013 third-round pick. As a HS junior he was up to 93 mph with a great body but had TJ this year. He was back throwing again in the spring and his 2014 workload is likely to be limited but he is a deep cut that could really emerge in the years ahead. Many believe that if he was healthy this year he could have been a 1st or supplemental round pick. Big source of potential value for the organization.

 

edwin g (maine): were there any reports on jairo labourt?

Clint Longenecker: Yes and they are glowing. The thumbnail sketch is that he pitches 90-93, touching 95 with above-average life and sink. Both his slider and changeup project as plus offerings, although they are currently inconsistent. And he could develop above-average control to go with a groundball profile because of his heavy 2-seam sink. He ranked right outside of the top 10 and could be a No. 3 starter. A lot to like here.

 

Andrew (Waterloo, ON): You have Aaron Sanchez pegged as a potential #2 - which by all means is a lofty projection regardless of the prospect... However, I am curious to hear what he is lacking to have the upside of a #1 ace - from the outside looking in, his intelligence combined with his stuff makes it appear that if everything were to work out he has ace upside. What is he missing?

Clint Longenecker: Andrew, great question. And you are on the right track. In terms of stuff, the raw ingredients are there- great body made for handling innings, big velo, at least plus FB life, high ground ball rate, CB and CH that could both be plus. This is more of a philosophical point but even guys that could become No. 1s dont profile as No. 1s because part of being a No. 1 or “ace” is that you have to prove it at the ML level. It is based on ability, but also track record and performance, as well as durability. This is where he falls short. He hasnt done it yet (obviously). And two big things hold him back- control and innings, which will be the keys to his development going forward. No. 1 starters are expected to log 200+ IP annually. He only averaged 4 IP a start in his 20 healthy starts this year and accumulated 109 IP. Assuming an increase of 30-40 IP annually it will take him some time to build up to this threshold. Second, his control needs to improve. Although he cut his walk rate this year, it was still 31% above Florida State League average. No. 1s are capable of limiting free passes at an above-average rate. He is so athletic and is such a hard worker things could come together for him very quickly and obviously if the control improves it will help him accrue more innings, quickly. That all sounds like nitpicking but these are the keys to his developmental process and reaching his ceiling because it is so vast, and he is so talented. If everything comes together, watch out.

 

Dan (Toronto): Who do you rate as the better prospect, Andy Burns or Christian Lopes?

Clint Longenecker: Burns. He is much closer to the majors, a much better athlete and provides tremendous versatility. Lopes is limited to second and if his bat doesnt develop he doesnt have much value, while Burns has a more rounded skillset and can contribute in many different ways. Although he not a speedster, Burns stole 33 bases this year and is an instinctual baserunner.

 

Tom W (Vancouver Island B.C): With the prospect gap that exists between almost ready for prime time and that of the lower levels, should AA be tempted to trade the likes of Sanchez and Stroman in order to increase the possibility of contention? Would that also help extend the window of opportunity until the lower level prospects are near ready? Thanks.

Clint Longenecker: Tom, a good question that none of us are really qualified to answer. You’re right that would increase the chances of contention in the short-term (assuming the right return), and the marginal value of these wins could justify the cost in prospects. But the medium-term outlook (2-3 years) would be very tough and limit the organization’s flexibility. There would so little aid at the upper levels, the roster depth in the next three years would be perilously thin. This would force the organization to look externally for roster depth and that is an expensive proposition, especially with 1) the rapidly increasing cost of free agents 2) a payroll that just increased by 42 % last year. History has proven that paying for marginal players on the free agent mark is an inefficient allocation of resources. These moves would considerably hamstring flexibility and depth. But who knows?

 

Formerly the Smasher (Canada): I have read very little about Miguel Castro yet his numbers jump off the page, is he a legit prospect?

Clint Longenecker: Yes, very real. He will be in the top 30. He was covered previously. “Tough to say because he spent so little time stateside, is so young (18) and has so much developmental time left. But he could be a stud. Now this is a body you can dream on. He is big (6’5), very lean with long arms and a narrow waist, and oozes projection. Guys that look like this end up playing on TV some day. He can touch 96 and has feel for turning over a pretty good CH. He throws from a low arm slot and will likely be very tough on some side hitters, as he has a long stride, the ball jumps out of his hand and his fastball has life from a tough slot. Keep Castro in mind because the dream is big and the ceiling is high.”

 

Joe (Wisconsin): Does A.J. Jimenez profile as a backup catcher at the big league level at this point?

Clint Longenecker: If by at this point you mean right now, probably. But he has missed so much time with injuries that his bat still has development left. With incremental improvement to his bat he projects as a regular at his peak and could get there very quickly with sustained at-bats. He just needs to remain healthy and show his elbow is back at full strength, and he will provide a ton of value.

 

John (Spring Valley, MN): Does Tirado have the upside to be much higher next year on this list?

Clint Longenecker: You bet! He could have even been higher on this list and he could really jump if he can show the same stuff over extended innings at a full-season club, continues to improve his control and repeat his delivery. You cant dream too big on Tirado because the potential is immense. Just proving it at a full season level over 100+ IP will help move away from a tough profile to defeat- the small (hes listed at 6’1 but probably under 6’0) electric armed Dominican righthander with below-average control and some effort in his delivery. Too often this type of pitcher ends up in the bullpen, and many believe Tirado will stay in the rotation, but another year will only provide further evidence that distances him from this profile.

 

Frank (Texas): How far did Kevin Pillar fall from making the list?

Clint Longenecker: He is in the late-teens. A troubling factor is that he doesnt take walks and projects to have below-average power production. Without secondary skills, righthanded hitting OFs without tools are hard to have high, especially is in a system with so many big ceilings. But Pillar will undoubtedly have a better career than many of the higher ceiling talents ahead of him because of his ability to play the game.

 

Bob (Toronto): Matt Smoral had a lost year in terms of production. Does he still have a #2/3 starter upside?

Clint Longenecker: Yes, very little has changed in terms of his ceiling. What has changed is 1) the amount of time it could take him to reach the ceiling and 2) the probability that he reaches it. But the ceiling itself remains big.

 

JVK (Rochester): Is SS Richard Urena going to make the top 30?

Clint Longenecker: Yup! As an athletic, slicking-fielding SSs that projects to stay at a premium position he will be on the list.

 

jeff (Akron, Ohio): Do you think that Franklin Barreto will develop into a 1st division - All Star type player? Do you think they will bring him along slowly or move him up pretty quick if he responds well at each of the levels?

Clint Longenecker: His ceiling is a first division regular. I would think slowly because I am not sure of a high school or international prospect that has moved quickly under the current regime (since 2010). Please remind me if I am missing someone. Osuna had a chance to move on that track but the injured ended that possibility.

 

Lisa (Boston, MA): Between Lugo and Barreto, who has the better shot at sticking at short?

Clint Longenecker: Good question. Let me first say that this is my opinion and not the opinion of evaluators, but I would guess Lugo. Although they both will probably move off the position. I say Lugo because the reasons to move him off the position would be related to his quickness and first step, but his hands, smooth actions and ability to throw from different angles are good enough for the position. Barreto’s actions hold him back. Actions are tougher to alter and more intrinsic to the individual. Some scouts believe that actions dont change. This is why some fielders like the same after we have watched them for 20 years. But Barreto has better speed than Lugo. Barreto would also have to improve his arm accuracy. Both are top-notch talents.

 

Dan (Augusta, ME): What can you tell us about Tom Robson? Did he make the top 30 yet and is he potentially more than a 5th starter? Thank you

Clint Longenecker: Sure did. He is in the teens. Robson has the potential to be an innings-eater starter with his big, strong and durable build. Robson made wholesale improvements throughout the last years. I saw him in Bluefield last summer, his arm speed was very slow and he sat 86-89. A testament to his hard work, Robson’s velocity has jumped to the low-90s and touches 95. A separator for Robson is that he has the ability to pitch off his heavy fastball. He added a two-seamer and gets plus-plus sink. He groundball rates are off the charts. Across two stops this year, he had a 3.5 GO-FO ratio! That is a bowling ball! Although it was a small sample size of 64 innings, we know that GB rate stabilize quickly (thank you, Pizza Cutter). Robson’s curveball has above-average potential and his changeup improved substantially this year and could be an average offering. He couples that arsenal with good command and strike-throwing ability. He could be a No. 4 starter that is very valuable because of the sheer volume of innings he accrues.

 

Mike (Boston): Does Andy Burns have a big league future as a utility/defensive replacement player?

Clint Longenecker: Yes, this is his floor and he could be better than this.

 

Shawn (NYC): Could you speak more directly to the question of whether you think Stroman will be given the opportunity to start. Also do you feel his high k rate will translate to the majors or is he more of a pitch to contact low in the zone type guy?

Clint Longenecker: Yes, given the way he has been deployed I would think he will be given a chance to start. Coming out of the 2012 draft, many believed that Stroman would pitch in the majors that year. He was the kind of pure stuff, maturity and athleticism he has. Since he was used as a starter this year and showed his stuff and velo can hold up with a heavier workload, I think that indicates the organization’s intentions. Great second question. With how deep his arsenal is and how he is working over the ball more to get better sink and plane to the plate, he could do either. I feel more confident in predicting his strikeout rate to project at the ML level but his command could also allow him to pound the zone. But he will likely never be a groundball guy.

 

Clint Longenecker: Yes, given the way he has been deployed I would think he will be given a chance to start. Coming out of the 2012 draft, many believed that Stroman would pitch in the majors that year. He was the kind of pure stuff, maturity and athleticism he has. Since he was used as a starter this year and showed his stuff and velo can hold up with a heavier workload, I think that indicates the organization’s intentions. Great second question. With how deep his arsenal is and how he is working over the ball more to get better sink and plane to the plate, he could do either. I feel more confident in predicting his strikeout rate to project at the ML level but his command could also allow him to pound the zone. But he will likely never be a groundball guy.

 

Isaac (Toronto): You have Nolin far lower than most rankings, can you speak a little bit about why that is? Seems like a low-risk guy.

Clint Longenecker: Yes, he is low-risk from one standpoint in that he will likely reach the majors and have an impact. But he also has risk because the margin for error is lower because he 1) does not have impact potential 2) he has fewer roles he could fill if his stuff slips even incrementally. I think that the other rankings and those one agree on what he is and will become but differ on how that compares to high-ceiling talents with less probability. There is no right or wrong answer. One thing that does worry me and held him back is that he is likely to be an extreme flyabll pitcher. A flyball pitcher in the AL East in that ballpark does temper my enthusiasm. But he has a strong chance to contribute at the ML level.

 

Warren (Texas): How does Matt Dean profile at 1b? Where in the Top 30 did he land? Thanks for the chat

Clint Longenecker: On the back half. Good. He is likely to be a better athlete than most other 1Bs and has a good body. It is a shame that he arm is wasted at the position though because he has an above-average (at least) arm. He has above-average defensive potential at the position.

 

John S (Toronto): Who would you rather have right now: Stroman or Tyler Beede?

Clint Longenecker: Good question, as Stroman was the pick the Jays got for not signing Beede in 2011. It all depends on what the organization needs. Beede likely has the higher potential and is more likely to stay in the rotation because he is more conventional prospect. But Stroman has the much higher probability of contributing given that their control grades are probably two grades apart at present and there is not a big gap in terms of their raw stuff.

 

Brett (Stratford): I really like Richard Urena, what are your thoughts on him and how long until he hits the majors?

Clint Longenecker: Urena, like all of the lower level prospects, is very far away from the majors, especially in a system that puts prospects on a slower than average developmental track. Its a worthwhile question but we shouldnt concern ourselves too much with how long these guys have until the majors because it could be at least 4 or 5 years. But hes got the talent to get there, thats the most important thing.

 

Mike (Utica, NY): Can Norris elevate his ceiling if he can continue to improve his command like he did at the end of the season?

Clint Longenecker: Without a doubt. He could easily make a push into the top 3 if he can sustain his mechanical changes over a full season and shows he can repeat his delivery. He could really jump.

 

Brett (Stratford): Toronto has a ton of high ceiling talent. If they do not trade anyone way in the next few years would they have the top farm system in 2 years?

Clint Longenecker: They do. Its amazing the depth they have. This is a testament to such a strong commitment in building through the draft and international avenues. Tough to project that far out but its not unreasonable to say that they could have a top 3 farm system in 2-3 years, especially since they’ll have a second first-rounder to supplement this current crop.

 

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): Thanks gain for the chat. Seems like a lot of pitching depth in and out of the top 10. Newcomers like Jeremy Gabryszwski, Matt Boyd, Shane Dawson, and Yeyfry Del Rosario among others all have earned a spot at the next level. Your thoughts on those guys or others?

Clint Longenecker: You bet. Boyd had a tremendous debut and could move very quickly through the system. He provides tremendous value as a senior with three pitches that are at least average and good command. Dawson has really surprised some people. His velocity has increased into the low-90s. He has a good changeup and his slider is developing. He really pitches off his fastball and throws strikes.

 

Brett (Stratford): Other than a few prospects that are in the high levels most of the talent is in low level ball. Who arrives in the majors first out of many talented players in the lower levels.

Clint Longenecker: Stilson for pitchers. Pillar, Ryan Goins and Burns for position players. All could see time in Toronto next year. McGuire could also contribute.

 

Clint Longenecker: Thanks for all the questions today, folks. This was a lot of fun. Its a interesting system to follow and will be an exciting few years with all the high ceiling talent at the lower levels. If you have a further questions you can reach me @clintba. Dont hesitate to reach out. Have a great weekend.

[Angrioter]

Dave (Hackensack, NJ): Between RHPs Chase DeJong and Clinton Hollon, who ranked higher for you and why? Could you give us a brief rundown of both?

Clint Longenecker: -DeJong did, as he ranked No. 11. He was in earlier cuts of the top 10 and was tough to move out. He is an exciting guy. The thumbnail report is that DeJong profiles to pitch with a plus fastball, plus curveball and his changeup could emerge as plus (as it has made considerable developmental strides). DeJong projects to also have plus control with a body that will hold up in the rotation. Hollon, who has a ton of upside and was not far off from DeJong, could rise quickly on this list. Hollon is a plus athlete that can touch 95, 96 and sit in the low to mid-90s. His slider is plus and both his curveball and changeup have the potential to also be above-average offerings. With a deep arsenal, athleticism and pitchability, Hollon has the ceiling of at least a No. 3, with an outside shot at a No. 2. Of the guys outside the top 10 that could make a jump he is probably the guy.

 

WTF....

 

Trade Sanchez for Shark/Bailey now

[8D]

Thanks for the chat. Sounds like a lot of guys can make huge jumps in rankings if one or a couple of things click for a handful of prospects. Pretty exciting as I thought this system was barren.

[TheHurl]

I really hate that BA has like a hundred elevators and picks one person to make each list. I don't know Longnecker but he's very different than Rode in his evaluating (Rode had the most similar style/mindset to me with more advanced ranking higher than pure upside)

[Atothe]

I really hate that BA has like a hundred elevators and picks one person to make each list. I don't know Longnecker but he's very different than Rode in his evaluating (Rode had the most similar style/mindset to me with more advanced ranking higher than pure upside)

 

So your bias is ruining your enjoyment of Longnecker's evaluation of this system?