Blue Jays are "circling" Ricky Nolasco.

[ReturnOfTheYeti]

Can Sanchez play for the big club by mid season? Or will he need a full year in the minors?

 

I'd very much doubt that you'd even see Sanchez as a September call-up. He needs to have close to a full season at AA and then possibly a later season call-up to Buffalo. Probably an invite to ST in 2015 but I'd think that AS break of 2015 is about the best that could be hoped for IMO.

[baseballsss]

Nolasco is an outstanding pitcher.

 

Since 2009 he is 25th in baseball with 15 WAR. Tied with Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda and just behind the likes of Matt Cain and CJ Wilson.

 

He'd be a phenomenal pickup.

 

why is it everyone on this board cites WAR for everything but then when debating about WAR they say WAR isn't the bestthing to judge a player just a general idea of what they can do. But then on every single trade/signing/player thread WAR is basically used to determine if it was a good signing or trade or a good player.

 

I have no hate for WAR but jesus.

[Nox]

Projected value is what WAR is designed for. It's an economic tool to evaluate potential trades and signings.

 

To be honest, retrospective looks at player performance using WAR is one of it's biggest misapplications IMO.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

why is it everyone on this board cites WAR for everything but then when debating about WAR they say WAR isn't the bestthing to judge a player just a general idea of what they can do. But then on every single trade/signing/player thread WAR is basically used to determine if it was a good signing or trade or a good player.

 

I have no hate for WAR but jesus.

 

Calm down please.

[Terminator]

why is it everyone on this board cites WAR for everything but then when debating about WAR they say WAR isn't the bestthing to judge a player just a general idea of what they can do. But then on every single trade/signing/player thread WAR is basically used to determine if it was a good signing or trade or a good player.

 

I have no hate for WAR but jesus.

 

Well for starters it's a really easy and quick baseline to use. So you use it when it fits your argument and you discredit it when it doesn't. But most of the time on a sabremetric-friendly board you will see people use and promote that stat.

[admin]

ECJF, guaranteed, we get Bruce Chen.

[Nox]

discredit it when it doesn't

 

Who does that here?

[Terminator]

Who does that here?

 

It's rare but you'll see it most often when a player's WAR is inflated by defensive metrics.

[Nox]

It's rare but you'll see it most often when a player's WAR is inflated by defensive metrics.

 

Well, this goes back to what I've said in another thread. WAR should really only be used for projections. Using it to look back at past performances isn't a good use of it.

 

WAR can tell you what a player's past results are worth but it doesn't tell you how lucky (or unlucky) they were to obtain them. That's really not it's fault, as that's not what it was designed to do.

Edited November 25, 2013 by Nox

[Angrioter]

Well, this goes back to what I've said in another thread. WAR should really only be used for projections. Using it to look back at past performances isn't a good use of it.

 

WAR can tell you what a player's past results are worth but it doesn't tell you how lucky (or unlucky) someone was to obtain them. That's really not it's fault, as that's not what it was designed to do.

 

You're signing someone for their past performances? - Yes, That's what most managers do.

[Angrioter]

Well, this goes back to what I've said in another thread. WAR should really only be used for projections. Using it to look back at past performances isn't a good use of it.

 

WAR can tell you what a player's past results are worth but it doesn't tell you how lucky (or unlucky) someone was to obtain them. That's really not it's fault, as that's not what it was designed to do.

 

We need something like FIP, SIERA or TIPS for hitters

[Nox]

We need something like FIP, SIERA or TIPS for hitters

 

Projection systems do this.

 

FIP, SIERA and TIPS aren't even meant to be predictive. They just happen to be. Kind of.

[KingKat]

why is it everyone on this board cites WAR for everything but then when debating about WAR they say WAR isn't the bestthing to judge a player just a general idea of what they can do. But then on every single trade/signing/player thread WAR is basically used to determine if it was a good signing or trade or a good player.

 

I have no hate for WAR but jesus.

 

The correlation between fWAR (Fangraphs WAR) and actual wins is very strong. There are always outliers, teams who outperform or underperform their cumulative fWAR but the relationshisp is strong. Whatever fWAR misses in terms of individual players does seem for the most part average out over a group of players. That being said there are pitchers who seem to consistently outperform or undeperform their peripherals. When this happens you'll see a big discrepancy between the more peripherals bases fWAR and the more results based bWAR. Nolasco is just such a case. He's been worth 10.8 Wins over his career by bWAR and nearly twice as much by fWAR (20).

 

So this is an interesting case. If you are a fWAR purist, you think Nolasco is basically a three win pitcher and that his batted ball numbers should regress to league norms and stop inflating his ERA. Alternatively, you could believe that Nolasco is basically a fWAR breaker, a guy who will always underperform his peripherals and is basically a no more than average pitcher whose nice K/BB numbers are undermined by an unfortunate tendency to give up good contact.

[KingKat]

Well, this goes back to what I've said in another thread. WAR should really only be used for projections. Using it to look back at past performances isn't a good use of it.

 

WAR can tell you what a player's past results are worth but it doesn't tell you how lucky (or unlucky) they were to obtain them. That's really not it's fault, as that's not what it was designed to do.

 

See my post directly above about Nolasco possibly being a FIP/fWAR breaker

[Angrioter]

Projection systems do this.

 

FIP, SIERA and TIPS aren't even meant to be predictive. They just happen to be. Kind of.

 

"Luck" greatly affects the equation for hitters.

[Angrioter]

Hands up everyone who drafted Joe Blanton this year!

 

Joe Blanton 3.84 xFIP 2013?

[Dr. Dinger]

Did you win L3?

[Angrioter]

That's the one. Guy sucks.

 

 

He was decent but....................Dingers destroy him

2010 - 176 IP - 6.9, 2.20, 1.38 (K, BB, dingers)9, 42% GB

2011 - 041 IP - 7.6, 1.96, 1.09 (K, BB, dingers)9, 55% GB

2012 - 191 IP - 7.8, 1.60, 1.37 (K, BB, dingers)9, 45% GB

[Dr. Dinger]

Lol remember when I trade raped wilko with Joe Blanton and Mike Aviles in 2012? That was fun. Good times.

[Dr. Dinger]

Nice work. You're first in line for any L1 or DDL dropouts.

[Dr. Dinger]

Lol s*** that's right I forgot about that!

[Chappy]

3rd in playoffs, heartbreaking loss in semis. Won the shark tank though! And some random public league I abandoned!

 

f***ing shark tank. My team crumbled in the second half for yet another second place finish.

[Dr. Dinger]

We did a pretty good job recruiting solid guys (Boxy being the obvious exception).

[Angrioter]

We did a pretty good job recruiting solid guys (Boxy being the obvious exception).

 

I'm pleased so far with the decision to let boxy play. Every league needs a mark.

 

Is Boxy so bad?

[Angrioter]

Allow me to present to you the Uphill Gardners:

 

Aaron Hill

Adam Ottavino

Al Alburquerque

Anthony Gose

Anthony Rendón

Arodys Vizcaino

Bruce Chen

Cory Luebke

David Phelps

Didi Gregorius

Dioner Navarro

Drew Pomeranz

Drew Stubbs

Dustin Ackley

Enny Romero

Eric Chávez

Eric O'Flaherty

Jake Odorizzi

Joe Kelly

Joe Thatcher

Joe Wieland

John Buck

Justin Maxwell

Justin Smoak

Matt den Dekker

Matt Harvey

Melky Cabrera

Miguel González

Oliver Pérez

Scott Baker

Shawn Kelley

Tom Gorzelanny

 

Ok, this is the Boxy's replacement team.

Where is his starter team?

[Nox]

Allow me to present to you the Uphill Gardners:

 

Aaron Hill

Adam Ottavino

Al Alburquerque

Anthony Gose

Anthony Rendón

Arodys Vizcaino

Bruce Chen

Cory Luebke

David Phelps

Didi Gregorius

Dioner Navarro

Drew Pomeranz

Drew Stubbs

Dustin Ackley

Enny Romero

Eric Chávez

Eric O'Flaherty

Jake Odorizzi

Joe Kelly

Joe Thatcher

Joe Wieland

John Buck

Justin Maxwell

Justin Smoak

Matt den Dekker

Matt Harvey

Melky Cabrera

Miguel González

Oliver Pérez

Scott Baker

Shawn Kelley

Tom Gorzelanny

 

Poor Boxy

[TheHurl]

Or..

 

Uphill Gardners:

Matt Harvey

Aaron Hill

scrubs

 

Rendon says f*** you...he'll still show everyone.

[z3r0s]

Rendon says f*** you...he'll still show everyone.

 

nope you heard him, scrub... should defs just trade him to me.

[Boxcar]

Poor Boxy

 

19th place, here I come!

[Boxcar]

I'm pleased so far with the decision to let boxy play. Every league needs a mark.

 

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