Bourjos traded to STL Cards

[KingKat]

Is it just me or does Dave Cameron say a lot of really stupid s***? I haven't really read his stuff in years, but I always thought he was respectable.

Some quotes people have posted are pretty egregious though.

 

Dave Cameron gets overrated because of his position at FanGraphs but people who are deeper into stats (like Nox for instance) think he's an idiot and not remotely credible as a source of analysis.

[Laika]

Yeah I don't love a lot of his analysis. He's a competent writer and is knowledgeable about baseball and sabermetrics, but he's not mathematically gifted like some other writers are. There's a reason nobody from Fangraphs ever gets hired by a team -- they rarely create new stats or push the envelope. It's just 'here's what happens when you apply existing sabermetric stats to this trade/signing.'

 

I like a couple of their dudes. Cistullli. Matt Carruth used to write for them too and I liked him, but I think he quit the game entirely.

 

But yeah. Jess Sullivan is one of their best writers and I think he's just some M's blogger that Cameron scooped up one day.

[Laika]

The entire projection system is largely bunk. Including Cleveland Steamer. It's like throwing darts for those guys.

 

It's extremely difficult to predict what specific players will do in the future.

 

In general, these projection systems are excellent. When it comes to certain specific individual players, however, they can be super wrong.

 

With Bourjos, I'm guessing that Steamer just doesn't give him as much credit for fielding as he's earned while playing in his 350 some odd games so far. So if he's played like a +20 run centre fielder, Steamer probably takes a more cautious view of him and pretends that he's a +8 or something like that.

[Angrioter]

Three pages discussing a trade between Cards and Angels. We need some action Fat greek but wisely

[Laika]

Cistulli is probably my favourite. He's an excellent writer. And he loves Danny Salazar.

 

Pretty sure he has like, a Master's degree in modern poetry or something crazy like that. Published poet, sabermetrician.

[Laika]

Fielding

Exempt

True

Chucking

Heuristic

 

FETCH!

[Dr. Dinger]

Cistulli is probably my favourite. He's an excellent writer. And he loves Danny Salazar.

 

How could you not love Salazar? He's a bad motherf***er.

[Abomination]

It's extremely difficult to predict what specific players will do in the future.

 

In general, these projection systems are excellent. When it comes to certain specific individual players, however, they can be super wrong.

 

With Bourjos, I'm guessing that Steamer just doesn't give him as much credit for fielding as he's earned while playing in his 350 some odd games so far. So if he's played like a +20 run centre fielder, Steamer probably takes a more cautious view of him and pretends that he's a +8 or something like that.

 

I think the biggest issue is no real way to tell the reason why a player had a down year. Was it due to a lingering injury that will completely clear up in the off-season, or was it due to age or chronic injury? For example, if a pitcher breaks his leg, I'm not going to worry about it affecting his stuff the next year or suddenly suggest that he'll only throw 150 innings instead of 200 the next year. If he has shoulder problems, I definitely am. Since many injuries are never reported to the public (and sometimes not even to the trainers!), it's impossible to really include that data.

[TheHurl]

Heuristic

 

And you wonder why no one likes you

[John_Havok]

 

Love this deal for STL, further cementing their status as a well run org. Thet get younger, better, more inexpensive and get a prospect to boot. And the Angels make yet another puzzling move that really doesn't help their team and adds money.

[TheHurl]

Who doesn't?

 

Btw Danny Salazar TIPS 2013 2.59. Next closest starter (no min IP) Hamels at 3.01.

 

The 29 GM's that didn't take him in the 2010 Rule 5 draft.

[Nox]

Is it just me or does Dave Cameron say a lot of really stupid s***? I haven't really read his stuff in years, but I always thought he was respectable. Some quotes people have posted are pretty egregious though.

 

Dave Cameron is kind of the worst. A ridiculous Ms homer who provides shallow analysis to questions nobody is asking.

 

Just this week I was reading through a couple of old threads on The Book Blog where Tango, MGL, Colin Wyers, Phil Barnbaum and Fast were ripping apart JC Bradbury for his criticisms on the common method for determining replacement level. (If you don't know who JC Bradbury is, that's ok. He's the biggest shitbag out there in terms of baseball analysts and is fairly representative of everything wrong with Phds in Econ).

 

Anyways, Cameron pokes his head into the thread from time to time taking the role of a cheerleader with every response being of the "Yah! What Tango said!!! I can't believe JC OMG LOL" variety. I thought it nicely summed up Dave Cameron as a baseball authority.

[KingKat]

Love this deal for STL, further cementing their status as a well run org. Thet get younger, better, more inexpensive and get a prospect to boot. And the Angels make yet another puzzling move that really doesn't help their team and adds money.

 

Is Freese really such a bad fit for them? They weren't using Boujos optimally and they have an opening for a 3B. Seems like a fairly logical move for a team that's trying to shuffle things around rather then rebuild.

[DuckDuckGose]

Link to Moogy projections?

 

Fielder will lead the league in cheeseburgers consumed for a third straight season. Kinsler will lead the tigers in teammates hugged. Reyes will blow out a knee but it will be replaced by a bionic knee and he will go on to lead the league in SB, and IF hits.

[John_Havok]

Is Freese really such a bad fit for them? They weren't using Boujos optimally and they have an opening for a 3B. Seems like a fairly logical move for a team that's trying to shuffle things around rather then rebuild.

 

He's a subpar defender and an average bat, with less years of control and between him and Salas, cost more money. Bourjos is younger, an elite defender in CF and probably puts up 3-4 WAR without even having anything better than an average year with the bat., with a better than average year with the bat, he's in the 4-5 range.

 

I just think they could have found a 2 WAR 3B and a decent pen arm for less than a 3-4 WAR CF, but a big part of this is probably the Angels completely undervaluing Bourjos more than anything.

[bendera3]

Fielder will lead the league in cheeseburgers consumed for a third straight season. Kinsler will lead the tigers in teammates hugged. Reyes will blow out a knee but it will be replaced by a bionic knee and he will go on to lead the league in SB, and IF hits.

 

Veggie cheeseburgers??

[DuckDuckGose]

Veggie cheeseburgers??

 

Ya true he is a vegetarian. Lead the league in black bean cheeseburgers.

[Nox]

Steamer's like the Cliffs Notes for forecasting. It's for C students only.

 

"Another reason for the inferiority of expert judgement is that humans are incorrigibly inconsistent in making summary judgments of complex information. When asked to evaluate the same information twice, they frequently give different answers. The extent of the inconsistency is often a matter of real concern. Experienced radiologists who evaluate chest X-rays as 'normal' or 'abnormal' contradict themselves 20% of the time when they see the same picture on separate occasions. A study of 101 independent auditors who were asked to evaluate the reliability of internal corporate audits revealed a similar degree of inconsistency. A review of 41 separate studies of the reliability of judgments made by auditors, pathologists, psychologists, organizational managers and other professionals suggests that this level of inconsistency is typical, even when a case is reevaluated within a few minutes. Unreliable judgments cannot be valid predictors of anything."

 

-Daniel Kahneman, pg. 225 of Thinking Fast and Slow in the chapter "Intuitions vs. Formulas"

[Angrioter]

-Daniel Kahneman, pg. 225 of Thinking Fast and Slow in the chapter "Intuitions vs. Formulas"

 

What do you think about JP Arencibia?

[Angrioter]

[Frenchsoup]

 

Well that pretty much finishes there off season off lol

[KingKat]

 

Filled their biggest need and didn't move any of their good young players.

[John_Havok]

Filled their biggest need and didn't move any of their good young players.

 

I guess they don't want to give up their first rounder for Drew.