GM's Meetings Thread

[Angrioter]

My issue is what Nox said. I think this team is going to fail anyway over the next two years and then enter a rebuild phase. Cano may very well be worth his contract, but those wins won't actually be valuable enough to warrant being stuck with the likely ugly back end of the deal. I'd rather the new regime have a clean slate.

 

The Fat greek's "5 years policy" isn't a bad idea. The playoff window could be open for about 2 more years; Cano and his +7 years would not fit here.

 

 

Profar is our men

[Olerud363]

My issue is what Nox said. I think this team is going to fail anyway over the next two years and then enter a rebuild phase. Cano may very well be worth his contract, but those wins won't actually be valuable enough to warrant being stuck with the likely ugly back end of the deal. I'd rather the new regime have a clean slate.

 

Hypothetically if they were allowed one big move it would put them within putting distance....

 

It seems many of the fans don't have faith they could putt. Cano + the right catcher, the right outfielder, the right starter would do it.

 

If Rogers signed Cano, fired Beeston and AA, then hired Tampa's front office to finish it off, choose the right cathcer/outfielder/starter(s) do you think the Jays could win in 2014??

[KingKat]

My issue is what Nox said. I think this team is going to fail anyway over the next two years and then enter a rebuild phase. Cano may very well be worth his contract, but those wins won't actually be valuable enough to warrant being stuck with the likely ugly back end of the deal. I'd rather the new regime have a clean slate.

 

I'm with you. We need to follow the Red Sox model. Let's make deals that help the team now and could work out in an optimistic scenario but no more "make or break" deals. The team doesn't have the ressource to go all in but it can make a few moves that push scrubs out of the lineup and hope for some positive regression from some of last year's big acquisitions. That's the only reasonable course at this point.

[G-Snarls]

Defense is weak at SS but it might play well at 2B or 3B. It's hard to get a good read on his defensive abilities. He's had years where he was a plus defender and years like last year where he was pretty awful. I'd say he provides enough overall value to be a solid starting option at 2B and he definitely would improve the depth chart at 3B where there really isn't much behind Lawrie. It's in the team's interest to push Goins/Derosa/Izturis further down the depth chart so Lowrie makes a nice target as does anyone decent really.

 

I'd like to think part of his problem was how he was used by Melvin. He played a lot of games at 3 different positions, and most games at the hardest one (short stop). A full season with 150 games at second base and he might be a lot more reliable. And he's always hit well.

[Angrioter]

Everyone keeps saying this, but it doesn't usually work that way. Who unperformed last year?

 

Reyes + 1

Lawrie + 1

Melky + 2

Morrow + 2

 

Hey, 6 wins via RTTM! Our injured guys will be healthy!

 

But 2014 will have its own set of injuries and disappointments. Rasmus will be projected for like a 2-win decline. Bautista, Edwin, Reyes, Melky, Lind, Buehrle, Delabar, Dickey, Happ, Janssen, and Santos are all on the wrong side of 30.

 

In fact we had 13 players contribute 1+ WAR last year and only 3 (Lawrie, Rasmus, Cecil) are younger than 30. A natural 5-win progression from the roster seems really, really unlikely. In fact I'd be surprised if we don't get fewer WAR from the guys who were here in 2013.

 

Yep. Ideal performance.

Each year opens a new chapter and each chapter is full of injuries, disappointments, great-performance and other factors.

[Angrioter]

The Blue Jays are making appointments with all the top free-agent starters, including Matt Garza, Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, and are said to be dedicating their winter to improving their rotation. Which makes sense considering that as a rotation, they ranked 29th of 30 teams.

 

Toronto will also look for a second baseman, though it appears top free agent Robinson Cano is well out of their financial reach. Too bad, because Cano and Jays shortstop Jose Reyes teamed up to help the Dominican Republic win the WBC. They like Cano of course (what's not to like?), but a person familiar with Toronto's thinking suggested their money is almost sure to be spent on starters, saying of Cano, "Too bad he's not in the discount rack."

 

The Blue Jays haven't said it, but competing executives believe they'll look at catcher, too, after J.P. Arencibia's rough year. He hit 21 home runs and had 55 RBI but batted .194 with a .227 on-base percentage. "He's supposed to be an offensive catcher, too," one rival executive noted.

 

The Blue Jays traditionally are willing to listen on anyone, so there's been speculation they could even move Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion. That speculation hasn't reached Reyes yet, who they like very much, and one Blue Jays connected person said he has a hard time envisioning the team better by trading Reyes.

 

The big focus, though, is on starters. It'll help that Brandon Morrow appears to be back to full health. But they know they still need help. Toronto's 4.81 rotation ERA was second worst to Minnesota's 5.26.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24223596/blue-jays-focus-first-on-rotation-help-but-keep-an-eye-on-2b-and-cs

[Olerud363]

Everyone keeps saying this, but it doesn't usually work that way. Who unperformed last year?

 

Reyes + 1

Lawrie + 1

Melky + 2

Morrow + 2

 

Hey, 6 wins via RTTM! Our injured guys will be healthy!

 

But 2014 will have its own set of injuries and disappointments. Rasmus will be projected for like a 2-win decline. Bautista, Edwin, Reyes, Melky, Lind, Buehrle, Delabar, Dickey, Happ, Janssen, and Santos are all on the wrong side of 30.

 

In fact we had 13 players contribute 1+ WAR last year and only 3 (Lawrie, Rasmus, Cecil) are younger than 30. A natural 5-win progression from the roster seems really, really unlikely. In fact I'd be surprised if we don't get fewer WAR from the guys who were here in 2013.

 

I'm as hard on the organization as anyone. And I don't nievely think that the injured guys will be healthy. But I still think the "true" talent level is about 80. That's just intuition... haven't gone any deeper then that. There were weirdly bad seasons by Arencibia, Melky, Johnson, and the second basemen... nothing spectacular on the positive side.

 

I don't think the injured guys will be healthy. But I do think Bautista/Reyes/Lind/Rasmus/Lawrie will average 110 games... about what they averaged last year. Actually they could easily be healthier... but I am not counting on that.

 

I am counting on catcher/2nd/left/5th starter to be 5 wins better. The rest of the Roster about the same.

 

True talent level is 80 not 75. Cano would bring it to 85. The right small moves could get it to 90.

[connorp]

8/200 would not be that bad honestly. As you mention, there's a pretty solid chance he earns most of that contract in the next couple of years.

 

But I do understand BTS's point. Cano's extra 5 wins or so that he's going to add next year basically takes us to a projected mid 80s win team. That investment isn't exactly leveraged very well due to the rest of our roster being pretty meh. It sets up for the next regime having to take on the backend/dead money years of the deal which will definitely

harm the cleanup process.

 

 

 

My issue is what Nox said. I think this team is going to fail anyway over the next two years and then enter a rebuild phase. Cano may very well be worth his contract, but those wins won't actually be valuable enough to warrant being stuck with the likely ugly back end of the deal. I'd rather the new regime have a clean slate.

 

You guys are short sighted it your thinking though. Its all about if Cano can provide the value he projects. Seeing as he's not a one or two year wonder just blossoming, it's a very safe bet.

 

Best case scenarion, he helps Jays compete. Worst case is it's a rebuild for 2016. But what kind of s*** is a new GM going to have? Aging JB and Edwin with like 1 year left? So we will have to wait to draft right? Cano with more manageable contract for a team could be worth a blue chip hall to thrifty GM. The more pieces a rebuilding GM comes into, the better.

contract

[connorp]

Haul*

[G-Snarls]

It all comes down to the pitching. Even with one upgrade like adding Jiminez or Hudson or equivalent and progression from Morrow Hutch Stroman, this team COULD be many many wins better in 2014.

 

BTS is right, you can't factor in improvements for Reyes Lawrie etc without accepting possible downturns for Rasmus and Edwin. But the offense is good enough.

 

Our 2014 chances come down to our (hopefully new) catcher and the starting rotation. And we're rolling the dice with the latter.

[G-Snarls]

How often do players who sign $200+ million megadeals at the age of 31 hold value even 2 years later?

 

So far it's 0 for 2

 

SSS

[G-Snarls]

How often do players who sign $200+ million megadeals at the age of 31 hold value even 2 years later?

 

Actually how many MVP caliber years did ARod have after the Yankees signed him? He really was still good for a while. Pujols not so much.

[G-Snarls]

Yup. 2 years later Rodriguez and Pujols look like franchise-crippling albatrosses. So does the only other $200+ million free agent signing (Fielder).

 

And Fielder was under 30!

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Byrd to the Phillies.. 2/16

 

Nice deal for them. Would much prefer Byrd over Melky.

[Nox]

True talent level is 80 not 75. Cano would bring it to 85. The right small moves could get it to 90.

 

There's no chance any projection system is going to give us 5 extra wins over last year with our current roster. We weren't 5 wins unlucky.

[Nox]

You guys are short sighted it your thinking though. Its all about if Cano can provide the value he projects. Seeing as he's not a one or two year wonder just blossoming, it's a very safe bet.

 

Best case scenarion, he helps Jays compete. Worst case is it's a rebuild for 2016. But what kind of s*** is a new GM going to have? Aging JB and Edwin with like 1 year left? So we will have to wait to draft right? Cano with more manageable contract for a team could be worth a blue chip hall to thrifty GM. The more pieces a rebuilding GM comes into, the better.

contract

 

A player who just signs a free agent deal is essentially a 0 value trade asset. In 2 years Cano does not project to return much in trade at all. Realistically, if someone were to take on the remaining years of the contract, that's all you could hope and pray for.

[Nox]

Steamer hates Byrd more than I would have thought. 0.6 WAR next year would make 2/$16M not that great.

 

Projection seems intuitively bearish though (not that that means much).

[KingKat]

I'd like to think part of his problem was how he was used by Melvin. He played a lot of games at 3 different positions, and most games at the hardest one (short stop). A full season with 150 games at second base and he might be a lot more reliable. And he's always hit well.

 

Agreed. He's good enough offensively that he doensn't need to provide plus defense to provide value and there's the upside of a good defensive season for the reasons you stated. His combination of a well establihed floor, possible defensive upside from the positional change and reasonable terms is about all the Jays coud ask for in a 2B.

[z3r0s]

Byrd to the Phillies.. 2/16

 

Nice deal for them. Would much prefer Byrd over Melky.

 

I would take Melky 9 times out of 10 over Byrd.

[connorp]

How often do players who sign $200+ million megadeals at the age of 31 hold value even 2 years later?

 

Cano may be a safer bet. I wouldnt want them to make that deal but wouldnt cry if they did. Would rather they move Sanchez+ for Kendrick, sign Ruiz, trade for a guy like Porcello that was mentioned here.. And sign a SP in FA. So maybe add$30m

[Angrioter]

 

Alex, f***ing moron.............trade Santos/Janssen and Cecil

[Nox]

Oh, just the rotation Alex.

 

But at least the least important thing of all is taken care of (maybe).

[mitchf]

I'm actually more convinced there just isn't a market for Janssen given what Alex probably values him at.

 

"Wow you you won't give up that position player for my 34 save, 2.56 ERA closer?!?"

[Nox]

I'm actually more convinced there just isn't a market for Janssen given what Alex probably values him at.

 

"Wow you you won't give up that position player for my 34 save, 2.56 ERA closer?!?"

 

Or, the more horrifying scenario: "You'll need to add to Porcello if you want a front end closer, battle tested in the AL East."

[G-Snarls]

Agreed. He's good enough offensively that he doensn't need to provide plus defense to provide value and there's the upside of a good defensive season for the reasons you stated. His combination of a well establihed floor, possible defensive upside from the positional change and reasonable terms is about all the Jays coud ask for in a 2B.

 

Yep, and I think you could Lowrie without giving Beane Stroman or Sanchez (though he'd probably ask for one of them initially...)

[Angrioter]

I'm actually more convinced there just isn't a market for Janssen given what Alex probably values him at.

 

"Wow you you won't give up that position player for my 34 save, 2.56 ERA closer?!?"

 

What about my couple Ace all-star relievers?

 

O'Dowd - "Alex, how are you?" - You look skinny..... A new diet?"

Alex - "Hi. spanakopita with vegetable"

 

O'Dowd - "Alex, Josh Rutledge is available"

Alex - "The 2B kid who's hit for .235 avg?"

 

O'Dowd - "Awful season but Rutledge have a huge upside. Can hit, pop, run and can play 2B/SS. Great asset"

Alex - AA mind - He could be AAA depth behind Goins - "What do you want for him?"

 

O'Dowd - "I need bullpen help. Delabar or Cecil and another B guy"

Alex - "Do you want one of my ace relievers for a .235 2B"...Are you kidding me?"

 

O'Dowd - "Ace relievers?"

Alex - "If you want one of them you must add Tulo to the ecuation"

[G-Snarls]

Mets Prioritizing Offense Over Pitching

 

By Steve Adams [November 12 at 11:59am CST]

 

The Mets are in the market for offense this winter, so much so that they may not even spend much time considering the free agent market for pitchers. Asked whether the team's preference was to target upside or a stable veteran presence to eat some innings and mentor the Mets' young arms, special assistant J.P. Ricciardi told MLBTR:

 

“I think the one thing in our favor right now is our pitching in our organization is getting closer to being big-league ready, so that makes us say that we might have some in-house options. So maybe we wouldn't even be as inclined to go out and look at that market. It's kind of a work in progress to see what is available, but I think one of the securities we have is that at least we have some guys coming through the system that can get to the big leagues a little quicker. I don't know if we'd be as willing to jump on something like that right now.”

 

Instead, it appears that the Mets will focus their efforts on improving the team's offense. “We have a lot of holes in our lineup,” Ricciardi acknowledged, declining to target a specific area of focus. Ricciardi stated that the Mets are committed to Travis d'Arnaud at catcher though he was less committal when discussing Juan Lagares in center field: “I'd say right now, he's probably the guy that we'd say: 'He can play center field.' I think a lot depends on what we're able to bring around him.”

 

In terms of outfielders, the market is rife with power bats that could improve the Mets' lineup. Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson and Nelson Cruz could all provide a boost to the club's outfield group, though each would require a draft pick to sign. The Mets are open to forfeiting their second-round pick for “the right player,” though as Ricciardi put it, the team isn't “jumping up and down to give up any picks because we're still trying to build.” Should the Mets surrender a pick, one will likely be their limit. Ricciardi dismissed the possibility of the Mets being as aggressive as the Indians were last season in forfeiting a second-round pick in order to sign both Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher:

 

“I don't know if we'll be that involved with those type of guys. Like I said, it has to be the right guy for us to even do one, so I can't really sit here and tell you that we're probably thinking about doing two.”

 

I asked Ricciardi specifically about the organization's top pitching prospect, Noah Syndergaard, and his chances to make the Majors next season despite being just 20 years old: “I don't know. I think a lot's going to depend on how he handles Triple-A. I think we'll use that as a barometer. I don't think – and I can't speak for Sandy – but I don't think we're going to let anyone's youth get in the way. If he's ready to pitch in the big leagues, he's ready.”

 

Ricciardi also praised the arms of Rafael Montero and Jacob deGrom, as well as the team's core of young relief pitchers in reiterating that the offense will be this winter's primary focus. Asked if he had a preference toward right- or left-handed batters or corner outfielders versus shortstops, Ricciardi simply replied, “I would say 'bats.' We need to improve our offense.”

[John_Havok]

Ya, that and a very deep free agent market for relievers with no draft pick comp attached. Relievers are best dealt at the trade deadline imo.

 

True, there's Nathan, Benoit, Rodney, Balfour, Mujica, and to a lesser extent for dem savez... Crain and Wilson all on the open market right now.

[G-Snarls]

True, there's Nathan, Benoit, Rodney, Balfour, Mujica, and to a lesser extent for dem savez... Crain and Wilson all on the open market right now.

 

Problem is those guys will get overpaid, and we're trying to save $. Rogers, Cecil, McGowan et al are all cheap.

[Angrioter]

problem is those guys will get overpaid, and we're trying to save $. Wagner, loup, cecil, mcgowan et al are all cheap.

iftfy