Mets rumors: Jose Bautista

[Jimcanuck]

Regarding Bautista to the Mets, unless we're getting Niese, Syndergaard and d'Arnaud there's nothing there of interest.

 

This would end up being Bautista for Dickey and Niese. And AA is forgiven.

[DuckDuckGose]

Pretty easy for me. Niese is only entering his age-27 season and is a better pitcher than Wheeler right now while being signed for 5/42 (the last two years being team options). Wheeler has good stuff, but he'll be 24 next year and has to get the walks under control.

 

With Harvey out for all of next season there is literally no chance they move their young pitching. They are going to sign an OF'er in FA and roll with their guys, at least until Harvey gets back.

 

On a sidenote Bowden is a moron.

[GD]

Pretty easy for me. Niese is only entering his age-27 season and is a better pitcher than Wheeler right now while being signed for 5/42 (the last two years being team options). Wheeler has good stuff, but he'll be 24 next year and has to get the walks under control.

 

Steamer has him at 1.1 next year and is more controllable.

 

Can someone who isn't a lazy motherf***er like me see how well BB% correlates with pitcher performance, however one chooses to quantify that? Similar to that K%-wRC+ correlation study I saw/ran myself as well. I'd do it but it takes work and no.

[baseballsss]

Pretty easy for me. Niese is only entering his age-27 season and is a better pitcher than Wheeler right now while being signed for 5/42 (the last two years being team options). Wheeler has good stuff, but he'll be 24 next year and has to get the walks under control.

 

I could definetly see niese getting raped side ways in the AL east. I wouldn't take him.

[ace3113]

Good thing you're a math genius.

 

 

http://bios.weddingbee.com/pics/35543/Joey-supposably.jpg

[jays_fever]

This isn't true, the Jays had a negotiation window, to extend him or no deal.

 

Yes but that shouldnt have added valued to the deal, even though it was included. If so, its pretty stupid to give up prospects for the privilege to sign an upcoming FA in a year to a extension.

[kgm1]

This isn't true, the Jays had a negotiation window, to extend him or no deal.

 

 

Right Jay . No way this deal goes thru without a reasonable extention . As usual writers have nothing to do but speculate and the mets just don't fit with us. Harvey gone for the year and tons of holes to fill .

 

They will keep their prospects and sign a free agent or two.

[G-Snarls]

I'm not backing the deal by any means, I'm just stating what happened, the Jays had a 72 hour window to talk to Dickey for an extension or the deal would've fell through had Dickey declined.

 

I think RA is a great guy and all but... Does anyone else kinda sorta wish he'd declined?

[G-Snarls]

I'm being too kind

 

We should all wish he'd declined

[Abomination]

I think RA is a great guy and all but... Does anyone else kinda sorta wish he'd declined?

 

For me personally, not really. I love watching the knuckleball (used to love watching Candiotti and Wakefield too).

 

Aside from that, Dickey will almost certainly outperform his contract, so the only thing even close to being negative imo is losing Syndergaard (don't really mind losing d'Arnaud). I also think we'll see a much better Dickey next year. He only had his full velocity for a few starts at the end of the season this year.

[G-Snarls]

For me personally, not really. I love watching the knuckleball (used to love watching Candiotti and Wakefield too).

 

Aside from that, Dickey will almost certainly outperform his contract, so the only thing even close to being negative imo is losing Syndergaard (don't really mind losing d'Arnaud). I also think we'll see a much better Dickey next year. He only had his full velocity for a few starts at the end of the season this year.

 

You always have to wait a few years to see how well a trade worked out, you're right. And yeah I'd love to see dickey be killer next year.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

For me personally, not really. I love watching the knuckleball (used to love watching Candiotti and Wakefield too).

 

Aside from that, Dickey will almost certainly outperform his contract, so the only thing even close to being negative imo is losing Syndergaard (don't really mind losing d'Arnaud). I also think we'll see a much better Dickey next year. He only had his full velocity for a few starts at the end of the season this year.

 

I agree I think Dickey will likely be very good next year. I noticed that Phil Neikro had a great season at age 43, so the age thing is overstated at times

here given that Dickey keeps himself in reasonably good physical shape. Pitching is at a premium right now, so giving up D'Arnaud was fine but the Mets

wanted more and Syndegaard was too much ( for the same reason, pitching is at a premium ). For similar reasons I wouldn't trade Stroman unless its a remarkable deal.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

You always have to wait a few years to see how well a trade worked out, you're right. And yeah I'd love to see dickey be killer next year.

 

Impossible to know how young players will work out ( ability, durability ), especially starting pitchers. Some trade ideas on here are based on young players projected ability being their future, without discounting in the risk. For example, Profar isn't worth Bautista ( yet ). One risk is a young player eventually becomes a great player but his team controlled window diminishes because he takes a few years getting there. So then he gets paid the huge contract and he's not the bargain people expected. Rasmus in my opinion isn't a centerpiece to the Jays winning it all, but if they go huge budget he could be a significant part of a winning team. If they don't want to become a Yankees type operation ( just under the luxury tax ), I'd be trading Rasmus now or just plan on letting him play out his contract.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Cooler Heads Prevail

[Olerud363]

I agree I think Dickey will likely be very good next year. I noticed that Phil Neikro had a great season at age 43, so the age thing is overstated at times

here given that Dickey keeps himself in reasonably good physical shape. Pitching is at a premium right now, so giving up D'Arnaud was fine but the Mets

wanted more and Syndegaard was too much ( for the same reason, pitching is at a premium ). For similar reasons I wouldn't trade Stroman unless its a remarkable deal.

 

Interesting comparison. Just looked at Niekro's stats... at age 38 he had a year something like Dickey just did. Then rebounded at 39 with a real good year,,,

 

won 21 at 40... through lost 20. Sonofabitch pitched 350 innings a year.

 

... had a good year at 45... was still pitching 200 ok innings at 47. Wheels fell off at 48.

[kgm1]

You always have to wait a few years to see how well a trade worked out, you're right. And yeah I'd love to see dickey be killer next year.

 

I'll never agree that the trades were the right thing but as I have always posted once done I was going to enjoy the show . Well we all saw how that went. Still Dickey went from a pitchers park to a hitters park in a bad division for fly balls . Add to that the horrible defense and being hurt .

 

I expect him to have a way better year in 2014 . I expect the defense behind him to be improved and with health have his velocity back . This is why I say Morrow is the key to the season . A healthy consistent Morrow with a better Dickey and 1 more decent pitcher added and we may have a shot . Without Morrow pitching well I don't see how it happens

[G-Snarls]

Impossible to know how young players will work out ( ability, durability ), especially starting pitchers. Some trade ideas on here are based on young players projected ability being their future, without discounting in the risk. For example, Profar isn't worth Bautista ( yet ). One risk is a young player eventually becomes a great player but his team controlled window diminishes because he takes a few years getting there. So then he gets paid the huge contract and he's not the bargain people expected. Rasmus in my opinion isn't a centerpiece to the Jays winning it all, but if they go huge budget he could be a significant part of a winning team. If they don't want to become a Yankees type operation ( just under the luxury tax ), I'd be trading Rasmus now or just plan on letting him play out his contract.

 

And it's even more complicated than that. The medium term painfulness of the Dickey trade also depends on what happens with other players too.

 

If Aaron Sanchez tanks it makes losing Syndrrgaard way more painful. Cause I expect the Mets would have been happy with either. They may have even asked for Sanchez first.

 

The loss of D'Arnaud seems painful now, but who knows with him. And there's a possible silver lining. AA might acquire Ruiz or Ramos this off season. Would he have done that if D'Arnaud was in the system? Maybe not. And what if D'Arnaud turns out to be no better than JP Arencibia? That's very possible. Anyone who scoffs at that doesn't remember how big of a prospect JP was 3 years ago. Or doesn't appreciate how uncertain these prospects are.

 

Bottom line? Gimme a couple more years before I decide how "bad" the Dickey trade was. Would I undo it right now if I could? Yes. But let's see what happens.

[over500]

Pretty sure deal.was originally.reported as Gose + JPA

No, that was what we wanted to the case.

[GD]

If Aaron Sanchez tanks it makes losing Syndrrgaard way more painful. Cause I expect the Mets would have been happy with either. They may have even asked for Sanchez first.

 

This was indeed the case, IIRC.

[DuckDuckGose]

Oh my...............

 

I don't really see what you disagree with Spanky..

 

There is significant risk in acquiring prospects that is often over looked in hypothetical trade scenarios.

 

Profar on his own is not worth Bautista.

 

In order to compete everything has to align and windows of contention are common place in sport.

 

Rasmus isn't a centrepiece on a contender but, he could be a valuable contributor.

 

It may be the right time to move Rasmus. It may be good business to let him walk in a couple years for a comp pick. It obviously depends what the trade market is like and what he's asking for on a long term deal. I'd lean more towards extending Rasmus than moving him but, he is one of the few trade chips AA has.

[oakville69]

I would not trade Bautista for Niese + prospects. That is absurd.

[oakville69]

Interesting comparison. Just looked at Niekro's stats... at age 38 he had a year something like Dickey just did. Then rebounded at 39 with a real good year,,,

 

won 21 at 40... through lost 20. Sonofabitch pitched 350 innings a year.

 

... had a good year at 45... was still pitching 200 ok innings at 47. Wheels fell off at 48.

 

Wow!. I forgot that Niekro was pitching after age 45. Is it realistic to think Dickey will pitch in 2016?

[DuckDuckGose]

 

This is just speculation but I am pretty sure the original reports were Arencibia or d'Arnaud + Gose. The whole situation was weird, considering it was found out after the crazy weekend took place that the deal was completed the previous Thursday.

 

When the negotiating period was reported it was also reported that a catching and pitching prospect were going the other way. Everyone wanted it to be JPA but shortly after it was confirmed that d'Arnaud was going the other way. At that point no one was sure who the pitching prospect would be. Most of us figured it would be a top 10 in the org type of guy but I think we all thought Synder or Sanchez would be out of the question. If I remember correctly most believed it would be Nicolino or Nolin going the other way. News broke, the Mets board trolled us for a couple days (admittedly because a group of fans antagonized them for the whole negotiating window) and then we moved on.

[G-Snarls]

A year ago we wanted to keep Gose at all costs. Now? Well...

[dineke]

You must look really dumb then.

[DuckDuckGose]

I'm not too sure what you are trying to get at here.

 

 

 

Are you high?

 

Colby Rasmus is a great player who's very underrated. He was a 5 war player in 118 games played last season. I'm content with him not being a superstar, because he seems to be pretty introverted.

 

But Rasmus doesn't project at 5 WAR next year. Don't take that as he wont put up 5 WAR, or that he can't, it's just not what should be expected going in to 2014. IF someone is willing to pay-up like he is that perennial 5 WAR guy with control then ship him out, the right deal could really help this club. Would Texas move Profar + pitching for Rasmus? Would Seattle offer up a piece from their stable of arms to land an impact bat? He definitely could be on his way out and at the very least AA will what he could get.

[connorp]

Why? He seems to have settled in as a 3.5-4 ERA guy in the NL and is right in the middle of his prime. I could see him in the 3.85-4.15 range here, which could make him our best starter. Obviously not the biggest piece in a deal for Bautista, but a nice get considering he's cheap for all of his guaranteed years and we only actually have 2 reliable starters.

 

Yeah I think Dillon Gee would have a chance to post the lowest ERA for the JAys as-is. Very sad

[Boxcar]

When I'm really high i do

 

You must be really high a lot of the time, then.

[DuckDuckGose]

Rasmus + any prospect in our system for Profar please.

 

I wonder if Rasmus + Sanchez/ Stroman coukd be the start to Profar + Holland...

[jayswin11]

I wonder if Rasmus + Sanchez/ Stroman coukd be the start to Profar + Holland...

 

Maybe.

[GD]

I wonder if Rasmus + Sanchez/ Stroman coukd be the start to Profar + Holland...

 

It would be a starting point but I would think it takes a good amount more.