Jays Win in 2014 Thread

[Boxcar]

Yeah, you are just a cut above the common man ()

[TwistedLogic]

Yeah, you are just a cut above the common man ()

 

You flatter me

[Abomination]

Were you here during the 11 game win streak last season? Probably the highest (happiest?) point this board has ever been. We just need something to cheer about and then things might start to pick up. Unfortunately there hasn't been anything to cheer about since the day the streak ended...didn't we lose the next 20 out of 30 after the 11 wins in a row?

 

There were still quite a few people bitching about every tiny thing even during that streak. Some people just seem to get off on complaining. I've also noticed that post quality goes waaaaay down late at night on weekends, so alcohol seems to have an effect too.

[GD]

Sounds like TL has a pussy call him.

 

Inb4 Jonn hits on him.

[G-Snarls]

And no, it wouldn't matter if CHP posted this thread or someone else. I'm pretty sure BTS "Regression" thread still gets brought up to this day!

 

Not as often as ECJF's "The playoffs will be easy to make" thread. Classic.

[G-Snarls]

http://i1169.photobucket.com/albums/r512/wptyler86/everyday%20gifs/shaqlaugh.gif

 

Perfectly played

 

I never saw that Shaq GIF before - what was the context? Stupid question form a reporter?

[Boxcar]

3 pages since there was a relevant post to the thread topic.

[Gen.Disarray]

We really should have an ignore thread option.

[GD]

We really should have an ignore thread option.

 

This would be so useful for the Kalfus thread.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

lol

 

" I expect we'll have a stronger roster next season then this season, but if the Jays flounder in the off season hell I'll just rescind my idea before game 1." ( not sure where this came from but I'll address it )

 

The Jays did flounder this off season and I don't like their chances much at this point. Simply adding two decent players would have been enough. They were in a good position to make a push in 2014 and they declined to do so.

 

Would it floor me if they made the playoffs ? No. It just got far less likely when they failed to add at least one more bat or one more starter at a minimum. And, btw, your prediction that Stroman and Sanchez would be traded by now was a complete bust.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Cooler Heads Prevail

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

CHP, I wasn't laughing at your prediction, pretty much everyone made the same one (myself included). It was funny because of how wrong everybody was , AA did jackshit this offseason!

 

Well, in all honesty, I thought by end of season that JPA, Bonofocio, Johnson, Gibbons, and AA would be gone. The Jays kept AA and his hand picked manager and I'm not sure why. The off season seems to confirm that AA isn't the right guy to be on the job, if that wasn't already clear by June 2013. The unfortunate reality is the Jays are still good enough ( with normal luck ) to be respectable and give the illusion of being competitive. For several of the reasons I mentioned and probably a few more I didn't say. I just wish they'd have that one more bat ( eg Beltran ) and/or pitcher ( eg Tanaka, Jiminez, hell even Santana in my opinion ) to give a more real chance to do so.

 

Raptors and Leafs tend to illustrate that things can change, and sometimes management shuffles do work, even if just to reduce the baggage

the old management brought to the table ( trying to make mistakes work out ).

[Boxcar]

Well, in all honesty, I thought by end of season that JPA, Bonofocio, Johnson, Gibbons, and AA would be gone. The Jays kept AA and his hand picked manager and I'm not sure why. The off season seems to confirm that AA isn't the right guy to be on the job, if that wasn't already clear by June 2013. The unfortunate reality is the Jays are still good enough ( with normal luck ) to be respectable and give the illusion of being competitive. For several of the reasons I mentioned and probably a few more I didn't say. I just wish they'd have that one more bat ( eg Beltran ) and/or pitcher ( eg Tanaka, Jiminez, hell even Santana in my opinion ) to give a more real chance to do so.

 

Raptors and Leafs tend to illustrate that things can change, and sometimes management shuffles do work, even if just to reduce the baggage

the old management brought to the table ( trying to make mistakes work out ).

 

wat

[saskjayfan]

Given that my very limited interactions with TwistedLogic have been to disagree with him on baseball-related matters, if that's the intellectually-stunted mischaracterization you need to cling to in order to do whatever the hell you think you're doing here ... more power to you, sparky. We're totally besties. Hugs and kisses, TL. And I'll defer to your expertise regarding cigarettes with viral diseases. Oh, wait ... my mistake. You were trying to be a tough guy. I will still defer to your expertise. I'm sure you had many of those on, and in, you in lock-up. No one above the age of 16 with a functioning brain gives a crap about "you're such a girl/homosexual" tough guy statements. You're back in the civilized world, now. Act accordingly.

 

Moogy, most of your interactions with me have been to disagree with me, but you're still one of my fav posters..lol

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

CHP, I wasn't laughing at your prediction, pretty much everyone made the same one (myself included).

 

Seriously? I knew as soon as AA and Beeston weren't fired immediately after last season that we weren't winning s*** this year or in the foreseeable future. As long as the Two Stooges are running the show, hoping for the playoffs is just setting yourself up for disappointment, sadly.

[saskjayfan]

Seriously? I knew as soon as AA and Beeston weren't fired immediately after last season that we weren't winning s*** this year or in the foreseeable future. As long as the Two Stooges are running the show, hoping for the playoffs is just setting yourself up for disappointment, sadly.

 

The starting pitching with the jays is a crap shoot, but you have to be excited about the lineup. Lawrie and Melky were the two guys who could make a big difference and so far this spring training you have to be happy with what you've seen.

[G-Snarls]

The starting pitching with the jays is a crap shoot, but you have to be excited about the lineup. Lawrie and Melky were the two guys who could make a big difference and so far this spring training you have to be happy with what you've seen.

 

Lineup 1-6 could be really, really good. And the BP should be good again. And the defense is improved though maybe no better than average. (JPA and Boni gone, Melky more mobile)

 

That leaves.... Starting pitching. That is where our fortunes shall be determined I'm afraid.

[saskjayfan]

Lineup 1-6 could be really, really good. And the BP should be good again. And the defense is improved though maybe no better than average. (JPA and Boni gone, Melky more mobile)

 

That leaves.... Starting pitching. That is where our fortunes shall be determined I'm afraid.

 

I think 1 through 7 is really really good and Navarro will be better than the .592 OPA JPA put up last year and 2nd base production was a .556 OPS last year so it can't get any worse than that. Reyes, Melky, Bast, EE, Lind, Rasmus, Lawrie is a sick 1 to 7. I'm not sure how many injuries will occur, but if they stay abnormally healthy this year, this team will score more than 800 runs.

[Dick_Pole]

I think the starting pitching won't be as bad as what people think and that the offense won't be nearly as good as what people think.

 

Maybe I'm drinking the kool-aid on JA Happ. But the unusual way this team has treated him - the uncharacteristic trade for mediocre prospects, the former Halladay trade centerpiece rumours, the guaranteed contract and the guaranteed #4 spot - makes me think that someone (hopefully competent) somewhere in this organization thinks they can strike lightning in a bottle with a late bloomer with this guy. If the Jays can get Jimmy Key or Jamie Moyer level of production out of this guy I will be very happy. He hasn't really had much of a chance yet in a Jays uniform although most of what we've seen so far is mediocre at best.

 

A lot of people slot Dickey and Beuhlre and 3 and 4 pitchers. I really think they are deserving of #2 and #3. Both were pretty good in the latter half of the year after horrendous starts. Morrow is a complete wild card. Let's hope for some #2 production like he did for the team a couple of years ago.

 

And this is me repeating myself over again, but for this offense to be top caliber, the five best performers of this team (Bautista, Lawrie, Reyes, Encarnacion, Rasmus) need to average 150 games this year. That is a tall order for those five guys. Right now 2B is a guaranteed black hole for 600+ PA, 162 games. Having them average only 150, I'm already tossing away an additional 60 games, 200+ PA. Any sustained injury or a combination of them and we can easily see 1000+ or 1500 PA thrown away on mediocre at bats. If any of those two guys are out at the same time, Lind becomes the 4th best hitter on this team. 6-9 will consist of Navarro, and any three of Sierra, Gose, Pillar, Goins, Kawasaki and Izturis. That would rival the Astros for the worst bottom half of the order in the AL and probably a good chunk of NL teams too even with a pitcher at #9. Under no circumstances is a lineup like that going to excel.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

And this is me repeating myself over again, but for this offense to be top caliber, the five best performers of this team (Bautista, Lawrie, Reyes, Encarnacion, Rasmus) need to average 150 games this year. That is a tall order for those five guys. Right now 2B is a guaranteed black hole for 600+ PA, 162 games. Having them average only 150, I'm already tossing away an additional 60 games, 200+ PA. Any sustained injury or a combination of them and we can easily see 1000+ or 1500 PA thrown away on mediocre at bats. If any of those two guys are out at the same time, Lind becomes the 4th best hitter on this team. 6-9 will consist of Navarro, and any three of Sierra, Gose, Pillar, Goins, Kawasaki and Izturis. That would rival the Astros for the worst bottom half of the order in the AL and probably a good chunk of NL teams too even with a pitcher at #9. Under no circumstances is a lineup like that going to excel.

 

The offence will often look better then it is because of our home park ( and vice versa for our pitchers ). I still see it as a strong offence but one without any depth at all. So any big injury will be meaningful. Adding only one decent hitter ( OF/DH/2B ) would have greatly strengthened this unit and the depth. I base my opinion on the idea that Lawrie will have a break out year this season ( I predict he will ), and that Reyes will play more games. Of course, this kind of lineup could be improved upon at any point via trade once the pretenders drop off the map during the season. I think Cabrera is the big risk, he should have been their depth not somebody they depend on.

[The Cats Ass]

Maybe I'm drinking the kool-aid on JA Happ. But the unusual way this team has treated him - the uncharacteristic trade for mediocre prospects, the former Halladay trade centerpiece rumours, the guaranteed contract and the guaranteed #4 spot - makes me think that someone (hopefully competent) somewhere in this organization thinks they can strike lightning in a bottle with a late bloomer with this guy. If the Jays can get Jimmy Key or Jamie Moyer level of production out of this guy I will be very happy. He hasn't really had much of a chance yet in a Jays uniform although most of what we've seen so far is mediocre at best.

 

There is something there with that guy. JA Happ I think could be above average and a good #4 this year. Over the last 10 games of the season last year he put up some alright numbers. 8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, .704OPS. He could put up something inbetween a CJ Wilson and an Ian Kennedy season.

[KingKat]

There is something there with that guy. JA Happ I think could be above average and a good #4 this year. Over the last 10 games of the season last year he put up some alright numbers. 8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, .704OPS. He could put up something inbetween a CJ Wilson and an Ian Kennedy season.

 

Back when the Jays traded for Happ, Jon Hale identified a possible issue with curveball overuse and that the Jays might have traded for him with the intention of fixing it. http://bjays.wordpress.com/2012/07/20/new-blue-jay-j-a-happ-is-overusing-his-curveball/

 

I can see the reasoning for acquiring Happ. The bigger problem was that with his arb eligibility he wasn't quite cheap enough to be an attractive project. You can find pitchers you want to fix for cheaper. That being said, since he's here, I have no real issue with him being a top candidate for the rotation. Before spring training, I would have went Happ/Redmond on paper. Now that Hutch looks like he might be all the way back from his injury and Happ doesn't look sharp at all while Redmond does, Hutch/Redmond seems like the obvious configuration but it's still early. The more pitchers pitch well the better so despite what Gruber92 says, we really should be rooting for Happ to do well. If nothing else it increases his trade value.

[mitchf]

I think the starting pitching won't be as bad as what people think and that the offense won't be nearly as good as what people think.

 

Maybe I'm drinking the kool-aid on JA Happ. But the unusual way this team has treated him - the uncharacteristic trade for mediocre prospects, the former Halladay trade centerpiece rumours, the guaranteed contract and the guaranteed #4 spot - makes me think that someone (hopefully competent) somewhere in this organization thinks they can strike lightning in a bottle with a late bloomer with this guy. If the Jays can get Jimmy Key or Jamie Moyer level of production out of this guy I will be very happy. He hasn't really had much of a chance yet in a Jays uniform although most of what we've seen so far is mediocre at best.

 

A lot of people slot Dickey and Beuhlre and 3 and 4 pitchers. I really think they are deserving of #2 and #3. Both were pretty good in the latter half of the year after horrendous starts. Morrow is a complete wild card. Let's hope for some #2 production like he did for the team a couple of years ago.

 

And this is me repeating myself over again, but for this offense to be top caliber, the five best performers of this team (Bautista, Lawrie, Reyes, Encarnacion, Rasmus) need to average 150 games this year. That is a tall order for those five guys. Right now 2B is a guaranteed black hole for 600+ PA, 162 games. Having them average only 150, I'm already tossing away an additional 60 games, 200+ PA. Any sustained injury or a combination of them and we can easily see 1000+ or 1500 PA thrown away on mediocre at bats. If any of those two guys are out at the same time, Lind becomes the 4th best hitter on this team. 6-9 will consist of Navarro, and any three of Sierra, Gose, Pillar, Goins, Kawasaki and Izturis. That would rival the Astros for the worst bottom half of the order in the AL and probably a good chunk of NL teams too even with a pitcher at #9. Under no circumstances is a lineup like that going to excel.

I was ready to read this hoping you'd enlighten me, but then I see JA Happ??

 

This guy is mediocrity defined. He's the wrong guy to put your faith in.

[CHRIS]

Now that Hutch looks like he might be all the way back from his injury and Happ doesn't look sharp at all while Redmond does, Hutch/Redmond seems like the obvious configuration but it's still early.

 

This sounds very reasonable to me, especially if Happ has options and Redmond does not. If they really have jimmied with Happ's arm angle, I can see why early spring results may be exceptionally poor. Redefining a guy's pitching motion seems like a definite AAA project. The only thing that really frightens me is how just about everyone seems to be reporting that Happ is a lock for the rotation.

[KingKat]

This sounds very reasonable to me, especially if Happ has options and Redmond does not. If they really have jimmied with Happ's arm angle, I can see why early spring results may be exceptionally poor. Redefining a guy's pitching motion seems like a definite AAA project. The only thing that really frightens me is how just about everyone seems to be reporting that Happ is a lock for the rotation.

 

Not that this should factor in the decision but Hutch would be a pretty solid guy to have pitch in the home opener, certainly more exciting than Happ or Redmond.

[Caper]

This will be a good bump when our team is in last place in 2014

 

At this point, the only thing I am excited about is Lansings team. Jesus f*** they will be good.

 

King seriously shut up. Like you've never said some dumb stuff? You were the genius that "broke the news" on the Bautista trade. You're a moron.

 

 

No... King has never been wrong.

[theblujay]

The first page is pure gold

[G-Snarls]

Fangraphs now has us at 86 projected wins and a 58% chance of making the playoffs. Including a 45.5% chance of winning the division.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

[G-Snarls]

The FanGraphs Playoff Odds are an adaption of the coolstandings.com playoff odds originally created by Greg Agami and Sean Walsh. To generate the playoff odds we simulate each season 10,000 times.

 

FanGraphs Projections Mode

 

This mode uses a combination of Steamer and ZiPS projections and the FanGraphs Depth Charts to calculate the winning percentage of each remaning game in the major league season.

[GD]

A payroll jump of 30-40M wouldn't surprise me.

 

Oooooooooops.

 

 

 

Can't believe the AL East is so s***. Awesome. I guess AA kinda did see weakness in the East after all. I don't support how this team was built but if we can get into the playoffs, I'll finally see some f***ing playoff ball and will absolutely go to one of the games, and Beeston will probably end up retiring. AND we'll probably get a little extra cash from playoff revenue. So yeah, good times.

[flafson]

Can't believe we have better chance at winning the division than Dodgers, Giants, Brewers and Angels. I guess someone looks at us very highly.