Did I hear Josh Johnson's agent correctly?

[leaffie]

Still think he will be on the DL before the season ends.

[Nox]

When Healthy.

 

Posters use these two words all the time. I want this club to sign a pitcher that has no health problems, that has no provisos of "when healthy".

 

Then you pretty much want them to avoid all pitchers. Which isn't an entirely invalid idea.

 

Too bad we just drafted 10 straight of them.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Johnson's stats this year aren't much better then Romero's were last year.

[Caper]

What was RR's twtw last year?

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Romero BB/9 5.22

Johnson BB/9 3.16

 

Romero K/9 6.17

Johnson K/9 9.09

 

WHIP 1.566 vs 1.674

[8D]

WHIP 1.566 vs 1.674

 

You have a convincing argument.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

You have a convincing argument.

 

He's a 30 year old pitcher with injury problems that limited him to 320 inning total since 2010. He's got one win this season and an

era almost 6. He looks totally lost on the mound, approaching the state Romero was last year in terms of confusion.

 

Show me ANY pitchers in the league with similar stats that will be offered a $14M contract next season.

 

I have a better idea though. Show me a convincing argument that he's worth $14M. The idea that losing him for nothing is the argument

is absurd. Just because he's on the team doesn't mean you need him at any price.

[TheHurl]

Johnson's stats this year aren't much better then Romero's were last year.

 

rather than be a dick about it I'll try and answer this in a calm matter. This is where reading more into the stats is important. Has JJ given up far too many runs in his games with the Jays so far? Yes, absolutely. What is more important is how many runs should JJ give up moving forward! RR was walking more, striking out less, giving up more hits, giving up more HR's and his velocity was down. All those are bad signs. JJ's peripherals are not that different than his past, so while it's not an automatic that he'll return to form there is hope that can and will.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

He went out there and battled every start despite getting lit up, so I would say it was pretty good.

 

Ricky Romero battled hard last year too, even getting 9 wins despite having no control at times. What's he worth this year ?

You know, baseball has a lot of vets on bad contracts because they got their deal signed coming off nice seasons. My objection is

signing a guy for big money that is on a terrible season, and hasn't had a "great" season since 2010.

 

Would it really surprise people if he was bad or injured again next year ? What is expected from a $14M per season pitcher now a days ?

[TheHurl]

He's a 30 year old pitcher with injury problems that limited him to 320 inning total since 2010. He's got one win this season and an

era almost 6. He looks totally lost on the mound, approaching the state Romero was last year in terms of confusion.

 

Show me ANY pitchers in the league with similar stats that will be offered a $14M contract next season.

 

.

 

Jake Peavy 2010 4.63 ERA 3.91 xFIP

Jake Peavy 2011 4.92 ERA 3.52 xFIP

rewarded with a 2 year $29M contract

Jake Peavy 2012 3.37 ERA 3.91 xFIP

 

Jake Peavy 2013 about to land the White Sox some sweet prospects.

 

Don't pay players for what they've done, pay players for what they will do.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Can someone shed some light on how the QO works? If JJ's agent says he'd likely accept a QO and the Jays don't want JJ back but want the pick in what appears to be a pretty huge 2014 draft

 

Can a team offer a multi-year deal that is deemed a QO (13 or 14M for the 2014 year), but its an offer that would force JJ to turn it down?

 

Eg.

 

2014- enough money to be deemed a QO

2015- 1M

2016- 1M

2017- 1M

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

Ricky Romero battled hard last year too, even getting 9 wins

 

AHAHAHAHAAHAHA!!! You actually value pitcher win/loss!

[TheHurl]

Can someone shed some light on how the QO works? If JJ's agent says he'd likely accept a QO and the Jays don't want JJ back but want the pick in what appears to be a pretty huge 2014 draft

 

Can a team offer a multi-year deal that is deemed a QO (13 or 14M for the 2014 year), but its an offer that would force JJ to turn it down?

 

Eg.

 

2014- enough money to be deemed a QO

2015- 1M

2016- 1M

2017- 1M

 

nope it's a 1 year offer. Here's a quick writeup with 2012 references to teams

 

Explaining Qualifying Offers

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [November 2, 2012 at 8:13am CST]

For the first time since baseball’s collective bargaining agreement was finalized, teams, agents and players will navigate a new system for determining free agent compensation: qualifying offers. The offers are due today, so there’s no better time for a refreshed primer. Here’s a look at draft pick compensation under the sport’s new CBA:

 

Type A and Type B designations have been eliminated. Instead, teams will have to make players a qualifying offer to be eligible for draft pick compensation.

The value of the qualifying offer, which is determined annually by averaging the top 125 player salaries from the previous year, will be worth $13.3MM this offseason. All qualifying offers are for the same duration (one year) and the same amount ($13.3MM for 2012-13).

Teams have until five days after the World Series to make qualifying offers. At that point the players have seven days to accept.

Once a team makes a qualifying offer, the player has two choices: he can accept the one-year deal or decline in search of other offers. If he declines the offer and signs elsewhere, his new team will have to surrender a top draft pick (the selection doesn't go to the player's former team).

Teams that sign free agents who turned down qualifying offers will surrender their first round picks. However, the forfeited picks don't go to other MLB teams. Instead, the first round simply becomes condensed.

The first ten selections in the draft are protected. Teams with protected picks will surrender their second-highest selections. The Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Indians, Marlins, Red Sox, Royals and Blue Jays have protected first round picks this offseason. The Pirates' ninth overall selection (compensation for failing to sign their 2012 first rounder) is also protected.

The player’s former team will receive its compensatory selection at the end of the first round. Teams now obtain one compensatory selection, instead of two.

If teams don’t make a qualifying offer, the player can sign uninhibited.

Only players who have been with their clubs for the entire season will be eligible for compensation.

[Caper]

Romero had the ridiculous run of 8-0 to start the season. 9 wins means jack s***.

 

Wins means jack s***

 

 

Really? So if you had a team next year... and you could pick a starting rotation of the 5 pitchers with the most wins.... or the 5 pitchers with the most loses, you're telling me that it wouldn't make a difference either way?

[Orgfiller]

Really? So if you had a team next year... and you could pick a starting rotation of the 5 pitchers with the most wins.... or the 5 pitchers with the most loses, you're telling me that it wouldn't make a difference either way?

 

Look at Felix Hernandez's Cy Young season, now I don't have the internet to look at his stats but his record was like 13-12, you need to tell me you wouldn't pick that guy over the likes of Ivan Nova?

[Caper]

The first ten selections in the draft are protected. Teams with protected picks will surrender their second-highest selections. The Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Indians, Marlins, Red Sox, Royals and Blue Jays have protected first round picks this offseason. The Pirates' ninth overall selection (compensation for failing to sign their 2012 first rounder) is also protected.

 

Really? So if the Jays were to pick 8th next year... they would lose the 11th pick they also get?

[TheHurl]

Really? So if you had a team next year... and you could pick a starting rotation of the 5 pitchers with the most wins.... or the 5 pitchers with the most loses, you're telling me that it wouldn't make a difference either way?

 

Top 10 in losses

 

Blanton, Hamels, EJax, Dickey, R. Hernandez, Lincecum, Medlen, Harrell, Sale, H. Bailey

 

vs.

 

Top 10 in wins

 

Scherzer, Moore, Wainwright, Corbin, Colon, Zimmerman, Tillman, King Felix, Masterson, Lynn

 

really could make a case for either side next year.

[96MPHFB-----]

No, because wins/losses are not a good indicator as to how a pitcher pitched.

 

Pitcher A: Plays 9 innings each game with 1 ER against.

 

Loses 1-0 each game, terrible W/L record

 

Pitcher B: Plays 9 innings each game with 5 ER against.

 

Wins 6-5 each game, amazing W/L record

 

In vacuum of course, but Pitcher A is substantially better. What stats other than W/L do you think are vital for pitchers? Team they play for can play a major role in W/L. Beyond ERA of course as well

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

No, because wins/losses are not a good indicator as to how a pitcher pitched.

 

But, Mr. Troller, wins might indicate whether you are good battling under adversity, which is what you said and I replied to.

If you don't want to talk about battling under adversity as a sign of merit in a pitcher, don't post it.

 

Some might say constantly battling under adversity might indicate some control issues. Rather then just miss the plate and walk

people, like Romero, you might just throw that 2-0 pitch straight down the pike and see it launched out of the SkyDome. But that

never happens to Johnson, does it ?

[TheHurl]

Really? So if the Jays were to pick 8th next year... they would lose the 11th pick they also get?

 

If the Jays sign a Free Agent who turned down a QO, yes they would lose the 11th pick (if that rule remains for this year I can't remember, someone can confirm)

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Top 10 in losses

 

Blanton, Hamels, EJax, Dickey, R. Hernandez, Lincecum, Medlen, Harrell, Sale, H. Bailey

 

vs.

 

Top 10 in wins

 

Scherzer, Moore, Wainwright, Corbin, Colon, Zimmerman, Tillman, King Felix, Masterson, Lynn

 

really could make a case for either side next year.

 

This pitching win topic comes up all the time on these forums and its stupid. I never said wins was my favorite stat at all, all the stats paint a picture. If wins meant NOTHING then guys like Tim Wakefield and Jack Morris wouldn't have been nearly as respected as they were. They were battlers though. Some of the new wave stats might make some people feel sophisticated, but the same stats can be misused as well. I guarantee you my educational background in math is stronger then 99% of the people who post on this forum.

 

Apparently, in order to post here, one must rehash the entire context of what you are replying to and add all sorts of constraints to your point. Or one can just say to hell with that its a CHAT SITE and I never meant what you are claiming. I think I choose to hell with the bs I'll post and the hamburger troller ( and others ) can go to hell I don't care.

 

The topic was signing Johnson. My point was he may be injury prone, looks uncomfortable pitching in the SkyDome, and hasn't had what would be characterized as a strong season since 2010. While none of that guarantees he will be bad again next year, he's a huge gamble for the Jays in the AL East. People can analyze stats to death, but he's on a ONE win season and his timing on when he blows up is often terrible.

 

Maybe he's good next year, but I'd rather drop him and try someone else. Maybe its just Toronto. The Yankees bring in a lot of free agents and some do very well but others just never adjust.

[Caper]

In the case of Ricky Romero, though. The poster had said he was good because he had 9 wins on the season.

 

8 of those 9 wins came in his first 8 starts.

 

You just can't use pitcher wins/losses to evaluate a pitcher

 

 

That I agree with.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Why do you have to call me a troll? It's getting old

 

Because you keep trolling. The whole subthread about pitching wins is stupid, evaluating a pitcher requires looking at numerous stats together. For example, Buehrle is said to present value because he pitches 200 innings every year. I'm not here to figure out how true that is, but the real baseball execs value it so its a factor. He's making a heck of a lot of money for a soft tossing finesse pitcher, but obviously somebody set his market value there.

[KSaw]

Why wouldn't he take the 14 mil and try to rebuild his value for next off-season? No-brainer really.

 

Let me think... Guy loves the city and he does, ego bruised and he has one and chance to rebuild value while making around $13.8 million. Good chance he's back.

 

Lets all keep in mind that many very good pitchers have had a dud season and bounced back. Bret Saberhagen, Cliff Lee, Roger Clemens, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Andy Pettitte...

[G-Snarls]

Win-Win either way.

 

Right

 

JJ on a 1 year deal at 14M OR a first round draft pick are both better than letting the Rangers sign him and getting nothing in return

[G-Snarls]

There's no way AA doesn't make him an offer

 

Either the 1 year QO or a 2-3 year deal at lower AAV

 

He won't let him walk for nothing

[DuckDuckGose]

If the Jays sign a Free Agent who turned down a QO, yes they would lose the 11th pick (if that rule remains for this year I can't remember, someone can confirm)

 

Pretty sure failed picks are protected for two seasons. Meaning they wouldn't lose the pick as FA comp next year.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Right

 

JJ on a 1 year deal at 14M OR a first round draft pick are both better than letting the Rangers sign him and getting nothing in return

 

Well with $14M burning in your pocket you better spend it before other options appear ?

I guess they could emulate the AJ Burnett project and sign him long term.

 

I'm going to go way out on a limb here and predict he's a major disappointment next season if he signs with the Jays. Call me crazy.

Maybe I'm wrong and Johnson and Cabrera will tear up the league and justify their salaries. Moneyball anyone ?

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

Really? So if you had a team next year... and you could pick a starting rotation of the 5 pitchers with the most wins.... or the 5 pitchers with the most loses, you're telling me that it wouldn't make a difference either way?

 

You do realize that pitcher win/loss is pretty much entirely contingent upon run support and luck, right? It literally does not make a difference whether you pick the ones with the most wins or the most losses - that's why we have plenty of other pitching stats that actually gauge and reflect the performance of the pitcher.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

But, Mr. Troller, wins might indicate whether you are good battling under adversity

 

No, they really don't. They do, however, indicate how many runs your offense is putting on the board when you pitch.

 

If you really want to indicate whether a pitcher is good at battling under adversity, the best possible way to do so is to divide their WPA (which shows how they affect their team's win expectancy per play) by their pLI (which shows how often they're being used in high-leverage situations), which gives you their clutch score. The pitchers with clutch scores over 0.0 (league average) tend to be the best in adverse situations that year - but even then, clutch scores tend to be random over a player's career.