Rangers media talking Bautista / Profar trade..

[admin]

Rangers and Marlins are a better fit.

Better time to buy low on Stanton, and I'm sure Marlins would love him too.

[G-Snarls]

Rangers and Marlins are a better fit.

Better time to buy low on Stanton, and I'm sure Marlins would love him too.

 

But they have Hech.

 

I know Profar is way better but...

[Laika]

I think you're overrating Profar.

 

Would be surprised if he put up the same season Harper did last year.

 

He's a really valuable asset but so is Bautista. (2ish + 4 + 3.5 + 3 + 2) = 14.5 WAR for $50M is alot of surplus. Like $80M ish.

 

Maybe the Harper talent comp is a bit hyperbolic before he's done anything. Or maybe not. One of them has slick SS chops, and the other one is a good corner outfielder. The playing field isn't exactly level. Harper, born in 1992, OPS'd .817 in 2012 and it was borderline other-worldy (considering his age). I really think Profar, born in 1993, could OPS .750 right now, and considering his position I'm pretty sure that would be in nearly the same league of value all things considered.

 

But I think you gave Bautista an extra year of control there. It's something like (2ish + 4 + 3.5 + 3) for ~50M. If it's 8/WAR then that's like, 50M surplus through 2016.

 

Profar would crush that. Three league average years at league minimum (probably well below his mean projection for the next 3 years) and he'd already be approaching 50M in surplus value (in the fantastical 8M/WAR paradigm), even before he hits arbitration.

[connorp]

Rangers and Marlins are a better fit.

Better time to buy low on Stanton, and I'm sure Marlins would love him too.

 

Yeah. That's a great match. But Stanton was a 6 WAR guy at 22, down season aside.. I would ask for Profar+

[G-Snarls]

Yeah. That's a great match. But Stanton was a 6 WAR guy at 22, down season aside.. I would ask for Profar+

 

If I'm the Marlins, I just keep Stanton. Why trade him at all? Cheap controllable awesome hitting outfielder.

[admin]

But they have Hech.

 

I know Profar is way better but...

 

I know, but with Stanton not wanting to be there, it could be one of the best fits, and Hech hasn't really done too much for them. They could always move Hech to 2B.

 

Texas would have to give up a lot more then just Profar for Stanton. Doubt the Marlins would sell low unless they were blown away. I don't see why Texas would want to do that.

 

Yeah. That's a great match. But Stanton was a 6 WAR guy at 22, down season aside.. I would ask for Profar+

 

Yeah, I just meant at a starting point. I have no idea what it would cost, especially now that Stanton hasn't been killing it this year. But he wants out of Miami, Texas would love him, and they have what it takes to get him. Could be a good time to make a move.

 

Nolasco + Stanton for Profar + Olt ++

 

PS I just looked at Cody Buckel's stats, 28BB in 9.1IP.

[admin]

If I'm Texas I'm not giving up the farm for Stanton when I get Bautista for just one of my top prospects. Long term Stanton will be the better player. But the Rangers have been great because they've been able to go to the farm to replace the players they've lost.

 

Fair point. Bautista wouldn't be a rental, so I guess it wouldn't be too bad of a move.

[Nox]

One of them has slick SS chops, and the other one is a good corner outfielder.

 

Just the way you said that sounds a little biased lol. "Slick chops" vs. "Good". Do we even know Profar is a good fielder?

 

Harper put up a 4.5 WAR season as a 19 year old and was well on his way to 5+ as a 20 year old before he started running into walls. Profar could do that obviously but I'd take the under for sure. I'm pretty sure when we looked it up last year there were only like 3 better 19 year old seasons in MLB history before Harper.

 

I get it though. Profar is basically everything I love in a prospect too.

 

But I think you gave Bautista an extra year of control there.

 

You're right. My mistake.

 

If it's 8/WAR then that's like, 50M surplus through 2016.

 

Highly unlikely it would be 9M, let alone 8 over the next 3 years. But in reality this is pretty impossible to project accurately.

 

Profar would crush that. Three league average years at league minimum (probably well below his mean projection for the next 3 years) and he'd already be approaching 50M in surplus value (in the fantastical 8M/WAR paradigm), even before he hits arbitration.

 

The extra year I added (like a donkey) to Bautista does certainly change the calculus. Top 10 hitting prospects produce around 14 WAR under team control on average (if my memory serves me correctly). Using $9M/WAR, the surplus that generates is definitely higher than what Bautista provides.

 

Somebody should really make a trade calculator...

[Caper]

I would rather keep Bau and get Hech back to play second.... Would cost less.

[Laika]

Just the way you said that sounds a little biased lol. "Slick chops" vs. "Good". Do we even know Profar is a good fielder?

 

Well, I am biased in the sense that I'm on one side of the argument. Having seen them both play, I would say that Harper is a very good RF and Profar is a very good SS.

 

Top 10 hitting prospects produce around 14 WAR under team control on average (if my memory serves me correctly)

 

Closer to 18 according to this But even to call him a "top 10 hitting prospect" is a bit dubious. That lumps him in with guys like d'Arnaud. Profar was arguably the top prospect in baseball, period, heading into 2013. Right now he's probably a top 3 hitting prospect with Oscar and Buxton, in some order.

 

He's a top 10 hitting prospect in the same sense that Longo is a top 10 3B. If piratesprospects re-binned the top end of their study to "top 3 hitting prospects" instead of top 10, I wonder how much the proj surp would change.

[GD]

Just the way you said that sounds a little biased lol. "Slick chops" vs. "Good". Do we even know Profar is a good fielder?

 

From what I've seen, just on my own opinion, yes. He seems really slick and athletic at SS.

 

 

 

I would do this trade but I'm super emotionally attached to Jose so it'd be tough. Like the Halladay trade. Thank god I'm not a GM haha.

[G-Snarls]

PS I just looked at Cody Buckel's stats, 28BB in 9.1IP.

 

Wow that's gotta be some kind of a record.

[GD]

Bautista is a whiny little bitch and Doc pisses excellence. How dare you compare the two.

 

I wasn't comparing the players.

 

I was comparing the circumstances of the trades and how I'd feel in regards to them being traded. Most certainly not comparing the players themselves.

[Abomination]

PS I just looked at Cody Buckel's stats, 28BB in 9.1IP.

 

He was showing pretty good command up until this year too. That's insane, he hasn't given up FEWER than 3 walks in an appearance this year, including one in which he got NO outs and one where he got ONE out.

[GD]

TBH I really wouldn't miss Bautista at all as long as the value is there. Doc was tough. Bautista wouldn't bother me.

 

Bautista's been here for the majority of the time I've *Seriously* followed the Jays so it'd be tough. I would still do it though.

 

Doc, I shed a few manly tears.

[connorp]

Maybe the Harper talent comp is a bit hyperbolic before he's done anything. Or maybe not. One of them has slick SS chops, and the other one is a good corner outfielder. The playing field isn't exactly level. Harper, born in 1992, OPS'd .817 in 2012 and it was borderline other-worldy (considering his age). I really think Profar, born in 1993, could OPS .750 right now, and considering his position I'm pretty sure that would be in nearly the same league of value all things considered.

 

But I think you gave Bautista an extra year of control there. It's something like (2ish + 4 + 3.5 + 3) for ~50M. If it's 8/WAR then that's like, 50M surplus through 2016.

 

Profar would crush that. Three league average years at league minimum (probably well below his mean projection for the next 3 years) and he'd already be approaching 50M in surplus value (in the fantastical 8M/WAR paradigm), even before he hits arbitration.

 

Actually I took a peak for shits and giggles starting from 2007 (give them time for a career) 6 years looking at Top 3 hitting prospects..

 

You get guys like:

 

Delmon Young

Brandon Wood

Cameron Maybin (little early for him)

Jeremy Hermidia

Ian Stewart

Joel Guzman

Rocco Baldelli

Hank Blalock (good but gave like 9 WAR)

Sean Burroughs

Corey Patterson..

 

Going Top 10 prob helps the sample. Ha.. quoted the wrong post of yours

[Nox]

Closer to 18 according to this

 

I see 14.56M.

 

 

But even to call him a "top 10 hitting prospect" is a bit dubious.

 

It's not though. You have to put guys into relatively chunky buckets because of the huge error bars. If you made your buckets at n=3, you start seeing things like 9-12 hitting prospects provide more value than 3-6 etc. At that point you might as well turn off all thought and dump your data into a regression machine and fap to the formula it produces. 6th order polynomial over a power law?! Sure why not!! {Insert BTS I ran a regression joke here}

 

This how crap like SIERA created.

 

Our model (in this case a nebulous scouting based model) doesn't really say Profar is the #1 prospect in the game. It says he's #1 +/- a big amount of error. Probably like 40 spots.

 

That's the same reason the Longo analogy isn't perfect. Our true talent error bars are an order of magnitude smaller for a guy with 5+ big league seasons under his belt than a guy of Profar's experience.

[GD]

Tears cease being manly when you shed more than one. Pussy.

 

Fite me.

 

I think an exception can be made in the case of our lovable Cyborg.

[Laika]

I see 14.56M.

 

That's what they list for "present worth discounted WAR", since a win in 6 years is worth less than a win now. But we didn't discount Bau's future WARz so I just looked at the six year average sums that they had.

[BlueJayWay]

Just because someone isn't prospect crazy doesn't mean they are automatically uninformed casuals. Prospects are high risk no matter how awesome their raw tools look.

 

This. I'm sure the casuals have never heard of Profar, but still, prospects are only that. Profar might turn out to be great, but he might just be okay. Bautista, OTOH, we know is really good.

[Wilnercibia]

Profar for Lawrie and Arencibia

[connorp]

I see 14.56M.

 

 

 

 

It's not though. You have to put guys into relatively chunky buckets because of the huge error bars. If you made your buckets at n=3, you start seeing things like 9-12 hitting prospects provide more value than 3-6 etc. At that point you might as well turn off all thought and dump your data into a regression machine and fap to the formula it produces. 6th order polynomial over a power law?! Sure why not!! {Insert BTS I ran a regression joke here}

 

This how crap like SIERA created.

 

Our model (in this case a nebulous scouting based model) doesn't really say Profar is the #1 prospect in the game. It says he's #1 +/- a big amount of error. Probably like 40 spots.

 

That's the same reason the Longo analogy isn't perfect. Our true talent error bars are an order of magnitude smaller for a guy with 5+ big league seasons under his belt than a guy of Profar's experience.

 

Yeah, or in layman's terms for us non-engineer kinds:P .. when you draw from such a small sample size, bad players would have such a large impact on the data..

[Angrioter]

Profar for Lawrie, Arencibia, Aaron Sanchez, Stroman, DJ Davis, Gose and Cecil

 

iftfy

[Wilnercibia]

iftfy

 

I would rather keep Cecil..

 

The rest can go

[Laika]

You have to put guys into relatively chunky buckets because of the huge error bars. If you made your buckets at n=3, you start seeing things like 9-12 hitting prospects provide more value than 3-6 etc. At that point you might as well turn off all thought and dump your data into a regression machine and fap to the formula it produces. 6th order polynomial over a power law?! Sure why not!! {Insert BTS I ran a regression joke here}

 

This how crap like SIERA created.

 

Our model (in this case a nebulous scouting based model) doesn't really say Profar is the #1 prospect in the game. It says he's #1 +/- a big amount of error. Probably like 40 spots.

 

That's the same reason the Longo analogy isn't perfect. Our true talent error bars are an order of magnitude smaller for a guy with 5+ big league seasons under his belt than a guy of Profar's experience.

 

I get that, but I guess I would counter that it's more about his particular profile than the fact that he "topped the lists".

 

Even completely separate from his placement on the woefully murky, scouting dependent top prospect lists, Profar's statistical profile just screams "phenom".

 

Shortstop that looks good at shortstop, with an age vs. level that is like two standard deviations above the norm at every stop, with a career minor league walk rate of 12.7%, K rate of 13.9%, and ISO of .182. Throw in SB speed and the 78% SB rate, the batting average and how good the hit tool looks, in addition to all the other tools.... he's just not normal. Not a normal top 10 hitting prospect.

 

Same can be said about a guy like Oscar Taveras. It's factors like: age vs. level * taking walks * power without having to sell out AT ALL for it * defensive profile

[JFD]

They Rangers could also use Dickey Romero

[Angrioter]

I get that, but I guess I would counter that it's more about his particular profile than the fact that he "topped the lists".

 

Even completely separate from his placement on the woefully murky, scouting dependent top prospect lists, Profar's statistical profile just screams "phenom".

 

Shortstop that looks good at shortstop, with an age vs. level that is like two standard deviations above the norm at every stop, with a career minor league walk rate of 12.7%, K rate of 13.9%, and ISO of .182. Throw in SB speed and the 78% SB rate, the batting average and how good the hit tool looks, in addition to all the other tools.... he's just not normal. Not a normal top 10 hitting prospect.

 

Same can be said about a guy like Oscar Taveras. It's factors like: age vs. level * taking walks * power without having to sell out AT ALL for it * defensive profile

 

Profar can speak in 4 different languages​​.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQuaZrGQQ8s

[Nox]

I get that, but I guess I would counter that it's more about his particular profile than the fact that he "topped the lists".

 

Even completely separate from his placement on the woefully murky, scouting dependent top prospect lists, Profar's statistical profile just screams "phenom".

 

Shortstop that looks good at shortstop, with an age vs. level that is like two standard deviations above the norm at every stop, with a career minor league walk rate of 12.7%, K rate of 13.9%, and ISO of .182. Throw in SB speed and the 78% SB rate, the batting average and how good the hit tool looks, in addition to all the other tools.... he's just not normal. Not a normal top 10 hitting prospect.

 

Same can be said about a guy like Oscar Taveras. It's factors like: age vs. level * taking walks * power without having to sell out AT ALL for it * defensive profile

 

Ah, I see. Yah, it would be nice to see a what an entirely empirical prospect valuation model would say. It may very well agree with what you're saying.

 

Though, ZIPs and Steamer use minor league data, adjust for age, league, position and take some stabs at D value. They have his current true talent pegged as a slightly below average MLB bat with ok D at SS. That in itself is a valuable asset (2-ish WAR over a full season), but it's actually pretty in-line with what the prospect list model would say. Maybe a bit better.

 

2 WAR

2.5 WAR

3.25 WAR

3.5 WAR

3.75 WAR

4 WAR

 

Wouldn't be surprised if a multi-year ZIPs projection would look something like that.

[G-Snarls]

Tears cease being manly when you shed more than one. Pussy.

 

Quote of the year. Make it a sticky.

[Laika]

Wouldn't be surprised if a multi-year ZIPs projection would look something like that.

 

So not counting 2013, something like:

 

2.5 WAR

3.25 WAR

3.5 WAR

3.75 WAR

4 WAR

 

For, let's say, 24 million total.

 

vs. Bautista's:

 

4 WAR

3.5 WAR

3 WAR

 

for 42 million.

 

Seems like a no-brainer. And recognizing that in any given season, both of them have crazy 6+ win upside, Profar gives you two more D20 rolls at benefiting from such years.