Olerud363.354

Like there will be a cool Blue pennant, next to the Wild Card pennants saying "American League Champion". Maybe when people see the 9 flags together, some AL East only, the 2 world Series, the ALDS flags, the Wild card and one "American League Champions", that one will seem more special than it does right now.

It honestly depends how you view life and probability. A bad April with injuries moves the World Series odds from say 5-10% to almost 0. It moves playoff odds from say 70% (if expected to have a good team) to 5% or something. It takes away 5-6 months of contending baseball in the summer months. What happened Saturday moved World Series odds from 93% to 0 in an hour or so. Totally get how crazy painful that is. The level of pain people are experiencing I think it depends how important the ring is to fans compared to other accomplishments After Saturday you still have an American League Championship and one of the greatest homeruns ever in the Springer Dinger. Part of this must be cultural. I became a baseball fan in 1988 but that was only 19 years into division play. So it was like 2006 and Troy Glaus is to now. The American and National League pennants were historically almost as important as the World Series because you never even saw the National League and for most of baseball history the Pennant was a result of a season's worth of work, and then even the 1969-1993 period Pennants were really important. There weren't multiple rounds of playoff series and no interleague play so winning your league in the ALCS had more importance. Like when American League and National League were really distinct, winning the League was more of a thing, and I think I still feel that vibe.

We are into offseason 2026 and every single good thing that happens is just a potential bad thing that will crush your sole. I remember off-season leading into 2013 was so exciting. Soul was crushed basically in April when Reye's got injured it was apparent Dickey was not going to ever repeat at Cy Young level. Jays were 9.5 games out on April 28th. Late April 2013 in my opinion was one of the most soul crushing times in Jays history. So much excitement for 2013 and not a single good moment, while watching John Farrell win a World Series. That was brutal. Soul was crushed early October 2022 with Mariners dancing in Rogers Center after 8-1 comeback. Soul was crushed mid October 2015 with 2 iconic Bautista homeruns made meaningless (agree the Bo homerun will be a foot note, but the Springer-Dinger like the bat-flip will live forever). Soul is always crushed in painful ways just very late and sharp this time. I've always said fan reactions follow the probabilities so going from 95% chance of winning World Series to 0 is pretty crushing. At same time still 100% chance of AL East and American League Championship and Ernie Clement hit record, so total endorphins for season highest ever, but loss of endorphins fastest and most dramatic ever. Sometimes like maybe 2019 -- not really crushed because no expectations and just excited for future. But most years soul crushed.

Ichiro and Ken Griffey Jr. have 6 playoff wins each. Davis Schneider has 10 playoff wins. Who has more playoff wins? Seattle Mariners since 1977 or Myles Straw's teams (probably didn't play in every game, but I think Myles has more.... it's close). Ernie Clement has the all time record for post season hits. Seeing all the publicity we are getting for this series I am more and more convinced that other than winning, losing the most painful and longest way is the best outcome. 1. Each playoff game is a tonne of cash for rogers. The numbers viewing the final innings were absolutely insane and probably add a bit to future payrolls as compared to losing in LA in 5. 2. Counterpoint - Having half the country watch the final inning scarred them all and they may never want to watch baseball again. 3. Counterpoint-counterpoint - To make sure point 2 doesn't happen Rogers almost certainly will spend more than if we had lost in LA in 5. Or even lost 5-1 Saturday. Not a tonne more, but if they really feel they scarred people (and hopefully professional psychologists will consult and make sure Rogers Brain trust understand the scars) they may just feel they have to really spend, really create another good team to fix the damage that game caused. Like they can't probably control the randomness of the playoffs, but make a good run at 100 wins just to help the poor people who watched Saturday.

The more you dive into this, the more insane it is. Miguel Rojas was horrible against righties, and there is no reason I can see he was even playing instead of Alex Call or even Kim. Or even Pages who sure, was struggling, but is a 4 WAR player, who hit like Teoscar Hernandez last year (bit better then 2025 Teo, but about that kind of hitter). A great center fielder. Is about at Daulton Varsho level as a player. Rojas is bad against righties last year, bad lifetime. Putting Rojas in was a bad move on every level that I can see. He shouldn't have been playing. And he hits a World Series changing homer off a righty. 1 homer off a righty this year. Career .344 slugging against Righties. Was it God? Was it power out to get us? Was it just pure bad awful luck. No. Unfortunately we have to look at the other side of it and while on a nice homerless streak in the playoffs, Jeff Hoffman had about the same homer rate against righties and lefties in 2025. Rojas wasn't facing a dominant closer. We had gotten a way with that most of the playoffs and got burnt. Righties hit Hoffman .205 .284 .400 last year. Lefties were even worse and overall he gave up a .450 slugging. To put that in perspective Andrez Munoz had a slugging against of .222. Most good closers are around .300. So while at first glance it seems some astronomically fluke thing that Rojas hit the homer given his split, not really a total fluke given Hoffman's splits. Closer with .300 or below slugging against should be on the must have list for 2026. (there is a chance that could be still Hoffman but have to identify the reason for the high homer rate and fix it moving forward if possible)

Had not re-watched that at bat and on second look pitch 4 looks like a breaking pitch outside. You are right. Now another haunting image to mess with our minds the rest of our lives. Live I assumed it was fastball outside strike...

Was it ball 4? He missed by a fraction of an inch of ending the game. Great 3-0 swing just didn't quite square it up. What does the data say on 3-0 swing results vs 3-1 count? Even if a ball it was just outside I give him the benefit of the doubt that you just can't be that perfect. So would want to know 3-0 swing results vs 3-1 count results to assess the swing decision.

It totally sucks that we lost by an inch. The thinking that it "would be better" if we lost by more is wrong though. 2014 Royals are a good example. Now 2016 Indians did not get back. Losing in the most devastating way is probably better than losing any easier way. Not sure what the best way to approach the question is, but I don't think there is evidence that losing a close Playoff Series has any long term negative effects on the franchise. Now the fans? Maybe some of them will be in deep depression for months I guess. Not enough World Series to get a lot of data, but if you also include other playoff Series there are lots of examples. 2003 Red Sox lost a horrible game 7 of ALCS came back. 1995 Yankees lost a bad ALDS before their dynasty. 2016 Indians did not make it back but won 100+ the next year. 2003 cubs lost the crazy Bartman ALCS and I guess wondered in the wilderness for a decade a bit, but 13 years later they won it. Now of course LOSING is bad. The argument I am making is that LOSING in epic devastating fashion is no worse long term, and probably better in terms of franchise lore, then Dodgers clinch with 5-1 Ohtani Gem in Los Angeles Wednesday night. Or Jays go 2-2 to close regular season and 2 and done against Red Sox.

Bo and Vlad increased their lifetime playoff wins from 0 to 10 and did not bring any happiness. If they increase chances of winning world series each year to 1/15 they have a 50% chance of getting one next 10 years. I wonder how many people here remember going to watch the 95 team. It got depressing pretty fast. Literally organizational momentum ground to a halt November 1st 1993 and didn't come back until 2015. Honestly if the Blue Jays win 89 in 2027 with Addison Barger looking good. Kirk and Vladdy fighting off obesity related early declines, Trey Yesavage 14-9 3.44 (not a superstar but solid) make a wild card and Vladdy and Kirk beat a better team with their clutchiness they learned this year.... you'll be happier than if IKF got home Saturday night, but they went into a 95 Jays, 2022 Washington Nationals style pit.

Cleveland also had a brutal one in 1997 losing a game 7 lead in the 9th and losing in the 11th due to a Tony Fernandez error. Neither was quite as brutal as last night. Red Sox in 1986 was pretty brutal. These things are remembered and add character to the franchise far more than 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks type season.... Unless you want to argue some of our guys will be messed up by this and we won't win until we phase a lot of these guys out.

His plate discipline looked great in the post season. I wonder if he could be a left handed Josh Donaldson. I think his defensive metrics were better at third despite the crazy throws from right field.

Oh man. Maybe I am just coping by accepting what Whitt Merrifield had to say .... He didn't have a good lead not only to avoid the line drive double play but also to avoid being picked off with the third basemen sneaking in behind him or Catcher getting him. On the other hand maybe Merrifield is just protecting his friend. There are a couple of angles which look awful but might be deceptive. Like his lead looks like it is 2 feet, but they said it was more like 7 or 8, so he was about the same distance away from bag as the third basemen... Maybe I am just choosing to believe Merrifield to save my own sanity.

I get that. Not sure though it feel better to lose 3-1. Or if you did there would be something else that would be magnified that you'd worry about. I don't know... totally get the play at home is going to drive some people nuts forever. I guess I just see everything as being on the margins. Like if Varsho hits that ball a foot to Rojos left. Or Clemente pulls the ball a bit. If Varsho struck out there and everything else was the same would everyone be happier today? Outcome would be the same. Wouldn't have to watch endless videos of IKF sliding and maybe he'd be back next year.

Sad truth is there is only a happy ending for one team. This hurts but it is the best absolute outcome other than winning. If game 7 wasn't competitive. Like a 3-1 snoozer that would be worse. You'd miss the excitement of being up and so close. If the series was a 5 gamer with the Dodgers winning in LA that would be worse. Always regret the 2 games in Toronto that never happened. Seattle wins the ALCS? Worse. NY wins the division series. Way worse. Yankees win the division and lose a wild card series? Worse! Get swept by the Yankees on Canada Day weekend? That would suck. Happened against Boston in 2023. Win 74 and watch Vlad miss out on 200 hits last weekend? That sucks. It all sucks except winning the World Series. Coming close is the best possible outcome other than winning. Does anyone remember the 2007 Rockies or 2023 Diamondbacks? Would you rather be them?

Not sure if these are God's truth. Don't remember the Will Smith homerun being quite that much of a wall scraper. According to Stats Cast Ernie's fly out and Will Smith's homerun were both 366. Such a Random sport. Ernie pulls that ball a bit...

I do agree now that we will never get a chance like this again. Ever. Team not expected to do anything. Win division against Yankees, beat Yankees in playoffs, 7 game ALCS win at home. World Series win at home against Dodgers. End story book season. Pretty unlikely you ever get this good of a setup again. Like even if they win the World Series in the next decade it will be with some boring 200+ run differential team that wins it in 5 in San Diego or somewhere. So many great moments that led to some bad moments. Could have avoided the bad by not having the good occur. Hopefully most of us are still here when they win 5-1 in San Diego on a Wednesday October night (not November, but maybe it will be St. Louis or Atlanta, or San Francisco).

Vlad has another level that could be unlocked. Gotta hope it happens. Satander could replace some of Springer's production.

Those three combined for a sub 100 wRC+ in 2025 and Jays offense was still good. Question for me is whether the decision making process that led to 2025 can be repeated. Like maybe it's Clase, or R.J. Schreck, or Leo Jiminez or someone not in the organization. Maybe it's signing Luis Arraez and getting more out of him then expected by working on his defense and pop. Not really saying that would be a good move, like maybe it's Gleybor they sign. Or rejuviinating Eloy Jiminez. I don't know. Maybe the process isn't real and they win 75 for the next 5 years. There are 3 wins to be had by getting playoff version 80 hit tool Vlad to show up for 162 games. Can the Pop and the High performance team do more stuff like this? Or was 2025 a lot of good luck followed by a few innings of bad luck.

Reason for optimism. For example unlikely Springer repeats his 2025. However to make up the wins Gimenez doesn't have to be magic, just healthy and a .250 hitter instead of .200. Also Nathan Lukes. Heard a couple of people saying can't repeat that. Maybe not. But Lukes 2025 is the kind of piece a good organization can find again whether it is Santander coming back, or a new Buffalo Boy (Clase, Loperfido, Schreck) stepping up. Or something else unexpected.

Most important thing for a franchise is to challenge the 90 win mark every year and have every game matter. In the 2020s last game of the season mattered every year so far except 2024. I totally get how insane last nights game was. I slept 3 hours. I've never seen anything like that. In terms of long term fan experience it will fade. If Jays win 91 next year and lose in the wild card round, you will be happier, then if they won last night and won 75 next year. Other teams have gone through it. 86 Red Sox, 97 Indians, 2011 Rangers, 2016 Indians. I would add 2001 Yankees, except hard to feel to much pain going for a quadro-peet. If Jays win 90 next year and the magic Buffalo Boys development system still works next year I will be happy. If they win 75 and Shatkins is a mirage I will be sad.

Exactly. The Yankees fan base is miserable. Every 3 game losing streak in August is a disaster. The Dodgers fans take a pout and leave in the 7th inning in World Series games. They literally left and gave up their World Championship team. After Joe Carter hit the homerun in 1993 in a blink of an eye Jacob Brumfield was playing for Olerud (against righties), Carter was one of the worst players in baseball and given 3 years of 700 PAs with negative WAR. The franchise was a miserable mess literally 4 months later. Do you know what it was like going to the Dome in 97 watching Carter? I half wished he didn't hit that homerun. Do you think 2 years from now you would be happier if the Jays beat Cincinatti 4-1. Like if they had a Texas Rangers 2023 style ring? Don't get me wrong. Am not discrediting the ring. But how much of a difference in satisfaction is there between Rangers 2023 and Jays 2025?

On the other hand Giminez under-performed with the bat. Satander did nothing. Bichette was injured for most of the playoff run and we lost multiple runs in the World Series because he couldn't run (couldn't score last night in the second) and downstream effect of having to sub IKF. Berrios was a non-factor. Garcia injured.

For a team with financial advantages and good management they should get a decent shot at it every few years especially with the expanded playoffs. Should get a few more shots. Chances to win it all are still probably only 1/15 any year. Better than Pirates (now that I said that watch Paul Skenes lead them to a World Series)

Not sure if it does. However the deferred money is still spent this year. They have to buy like a bond or something. So I believe they have to buy a 48 million (or something) bond every year that will mature at 70 million when they owe it. I think the deferred also counts towards the salary limits. I heard somewhere that the Dodgers payroll is 350 million or something including deferred. However there is also the tax. So Dodgers are paying actually 500 million out including tax while Jays be not taxed or taxed little. So could be accurate to say Dodgers are paying twice as much in payroll costs.

Amazing season. If we lose it will hurt but after a few days or weeks we will all look back at this season as the one of the three best in franchise history. So many epic moments.