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deanmike

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Everything posted by deanmike

  1. deanmike
    Based on contract projections for these guys Jays won't have enough room under the 2nd tax threshold (their likely internal payroll cap for 2024) to add Teo and Soler/Joc, even if they end up trading Espinal and his 2.5M arb projection.
  2. deanmike
    Mariners are gaining 20.7 BTV surplus value from these 2 trades, crazy.
  3. deanmike
    Giving up the Biggio hate is one thing, but Biggio as half of a 3B platoon? His ideal (only viable) positions on the field are 2B/1B. Even in any corner OF spot he sucks defensively.
  4. deanmike
    You can't possibly trust Biggio as the other half of that platoon though right? Or are you seriously a Biggio supporter now? Never thought your anti-Biggio stance would truly come into question Sherm.
  5. deanmike
    Chris Black X/Twitter positivity thread on a Biggio/IKF 3B platoon for any kool aid chuggers who are looking for some talking points.
  6. deanmike
    I don't think Joc at 10-12M counts as a big signing/acquisition. Also even if you wanted to take what Atkins said completely at face value (which is pointless because he's obviously just posturing to maintain negotiation leverage), Atkins didn't even straight up say 1 add remaining, he said "closer to 1 than 3." Probably ends up being 2 position player adds. Joc at 10-12M considering there's projected 27M left for the team to spend almost guarantees that. The 2nd add will be another 3B option to take Espinal's spot as the 3rd guy in the 3-man platoon with IKF and Biggio. At this point I would probably prefer an Urshela signing (I saw somewhere projected 10M AAV for 1-2 years) over the other two 3B possibilities (Turner signing/Polanco trade). Although I've barely seen anything linking Urshela to the Jays other than 1 MLBTR article.
  7. deanmike
    But almighty Steamer projects him at 2.4 fWAR in 600 PA. Meanwhile Turner's Steamer600 projection for 2024 is worse than Spencer Horwitz's. One could argue based on this that signing Turner just to cover some extra 3B innings is a wasteful use of a portion of the remaining budget. Also I heavily doubt the Jays see Clement as a 3B option. I would imagine if they did he would have seen some usage there last season but they basically never used him there.
  8. deanmike
    Forgot about the buyout aspect, thanks for clarifying.
  9. deanmike
    BNS didn't say presumptive LF. He said he's seen as a guy who can cover some LF innings (pretty much only in lineups vs LHP the way this team is constructed at the moment).
  10. deanmike
    A Polanco trade might make more sense than Turner depending on the Twins asking price because Polanco's 10.5M salary for 2024 is considerably less than the 13.4M player option Turner turned down for 2024, when also factoring in Joc probably makes between 10-12M if he signs here. Joc and Turner would cut it pretty close and leave almost nothing to add pitching depth considering the team only has a projected 27M remaining under the 2nd tax threshold which the team will likely stay under in 2024 as a repeat tax team. A Polanco trade probably also means you can easily punt Espinal and his 2.5M arb projection (maybe he's even part of a Polanco trade) and carry either Clement or Otto Lopez who both have no options remaining as the designated 13th cheap position player who barely plays, since Polanco is a full time fielder unlike Turner who would need a large chunk of DH starts.
  11. deanmike
    BNS says he thinks the team views Davis Schneider as someone they can use in LF this season. If true, this instantly causes a massive change in what the remaining needs of the team are. They would no longer "need" to add a Grichuk/Duvall type to play LF against LHP starters. He also thinks that outside of a Joc type DH/OF addition they will probably also add another option to cover at least some 3B innings (mentioned possibilities like Turner or a Polanco trade). Lineup vs RHP could be C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad 2B Schneider/Biggio 3B Biggio/Turner/IKF SS Bichette LF Varsho/Joc CF Kiermaier/Varsho RF Springer DH Joc/Turner Lineup vs LHP could be C Jansen/Kirk 1B Turner/Vlad 2B Espinal 3B IKF SS Bichette LF Schneider CF Varsho RF Springer DH Vlad/Turner Then whatever is left of the 27M after completing position player adds could probably be used on adding pitching depth.
  12. deanmike
    The only way Atkins would even come close to considering Tiedemann for Bogaerts is if the Padres also ate at least 25% of the 255 million still owed to him over the remaining 10 years of his contract.
  13. deanmike
    Funny that you mention Bogaerts because he's roughly a projected 4 fWAR player with 3+ years of control.
  14. deanmike
    I would have to guess minimum 4 fWAR players with minimum 3 years of control is a pretty small list. Maybe someone could post a list?
  15. deanmike
    BTV wise Varshso+Biggio for Machado at minimum 50% salary retention (roughly 166/332M remaining) grades out as such a massive value win for the Blue Jays that BTV rejects the trade as too much of an overpay by the Padres. Varsho+Kirk is a lot closer but then the Jays would need to go out and find a replacement for Kirk at C.
  16. deanmike
    It's entirely possible they really just use the projected 27M they have left under the 2nd tax threshold on Joc+Duvall/Grichuk+pitching depth (Yariel Rodriguez?). Lineup vs RHP could be C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad 2B Schneider/Biggio 3B Biggio/IKF SS Bo LF Varsho CF Kiermaier RF Springer DH Joc Lineup vs RHP could be C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad 2B Espinal 3B IKF SS Bo LF Duvall/Grichuk CF Varsho RF Springer DH Schneider It's also possible (maybe even preferable at this point) that instead of a strong side platoon guy like Joc they sign an everyday DH/OF like Soler/Teo/Pham which would allow them to give more DH days to Springer regardless of the opposing pitching matchup. Even Justin Turner would probably make more sense for primary DH (because he can cover some 3B innings) than Joc. I still want Hoskins over any other FA bat still available but that dream seems dead. Jays seem to be moving against what projections say about Vlad (imminent future full time DH) by targeting a DH/OF type.
  17. deanmike
    Let's say the Jays sign Joc and 1 of Urshela/Turner to split 3B with IKF and maybe a bit of Biggio (if the team puts any stock in his 2023 SSS at 3B), they would presumably take Otto Lopez and Horwitz's spots on the 26-man. Also assuming Espinal is moved, there could still be a fit for a lefty mashing platoon OF to take his roster spot (someone like Grichuk/Duvall). There's also obviously a possibility one or more of these holes could be filled through trade instead of FA.
  18. deanmike
    Jays have serious interest in Joc for the open DH/OF role available. I wouldn't mind Joc but would heavily prefer Hoskins. I believe they are still looking for another 3B (names like Turner and Urshela have been linked to the team for this role), as IKF was marketed by Rogers mouthpieces as a super utility bench add.
  19. deanmike
    Sorrow's package for Edman, Arenado and 1 of Liberatore/Helsley/Zack Thompson? Another option is Donovan, Arenado and Dylan Carlson.
  20. deanmike
    I know Fangraphs projections aren't everything, but something about them projecting Biggio to get more 3B PAs than IKF in 2024 doesn't seem right to me. Although it is close to an even split between them, with Espinal still being projected to cover over 100 PAs at third as well.
  21. deanmike
    Something about this package (plus you mentioned the Marlins and Padres as 2 teams you were told to watch here) screams Tatis Jr+Machado+Michael King. To be clear, the Jays eat Machado's entire contract here.
  22. deanmike
    I doubt it. KingSarcasm got his KK info before his IKF info (which at first he said as just "unnamed player signing incoming 15/2"). Spanky straight up said IKF 15/2, and I'm pretty sure he said he got his KK info after IKF. KingSarcasm got it the other way around.
  23. deanmike
    Bo to the Cubs for PCA and Adrian Santana PCA and Tiedemann to the Guardians for JRam and their Round A Comp Pick Barriera to the Brewers for Willy Adames Thoughts on this hypothetical string of mock trades?
  24. deanmike
    I know I've posted about this multiple times already, but out of all the 1B/DH power bat options on the FA market, IMO Rhys Hoskins easily has to be at the top of the list in terms of best fit for the Jays. The 4th OF options that stand out to me the most in terms of good fit with the team (assuming they're looking for a LF righty bat who hits well vs LHP) are Grichuk, Duvall and Hicks. C Jansen+Kirk 1B Hoskins 2B Biggio+Babe 3B IKF+Espinal SS Bo LF Varsho+Grichuk/Duvall/Hicks CF Kiermaier RF Springer DH Vlad Jays could probably sign all 3 of Hoskins+IKF+Grichuk/Duvall/Hicks for around 30M combined, which would be roughly almost all of their remaining budget post KK signing.
  25. deanmike
    I actually would not mind an IKF bargain bin addition for 3B instead of overpaying to bring back Matt Chapman. From what I've seen IKF's defensive numbers at 3B check out across the board, although his bat sucks so it would be another run prevention add. His ultra utility is very appealing in general though.
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