deanmike

Vlad for Soto straight up is very far apart value wise, it would be a massive fleece for Atkins if it happened. Vlad's BTV median value is 0.3, while Soto's is 22.9. Here's a couple of hypotheticals that are closer in value: 1) Vlad Jr and Espinal (3 total BTV median value) for Soto and Robert Suarez (6.1 total value) 2) Vlad Jr and Manoah (14.7 total value) for Soto (22.9 total value) Thoughts on these?

So now what are people's thoughts on this?

Hold on lemme bump something.

Are thanks stats something people care about on this board?

I guess I'm confused as to what is considered repetitive at this point. Because the only other infractions I've received so far are a temp ban for apparently going too far with a Vlad post, and a warning on a post I made about Shatkins. What does me disagreeing with the premise of this thread have to do with the other 2 things?

Unless of course, it was the Jays vs DBacks in this year's World Series. Then it would be "What credibility problem? We just got lucky enough to draw the sub-500 pythag record DBacks in the World Series. That's baseball!" Or unless, the Jays were on a Cinderella World Series run like the DBacks with a s*** pythag record and run differential. Then it would be "We love the new wild card format! It gave our Cinderella Jays their chance in October!"

Texas had the 4th best pythag record in the league this season (98 pythag wins). No one should be acting like this imminent Texas championship has anything to do with luck lmfao. If the Jays had won it all this season (13th best pythag record in baseball) the luck and randomness crowd wouldn't be bringing that up at all. Instead they would be saying the right/best team won.

What are the Jays adding? Because Soto clears Vlad Jr by over 20 median value on BTV. If Vlad Jr was moved straight up for Soto it would be a massive fleece for Atkins.

What's a Vlad trade you would make then? I was just posting a hypothetical, nothing too outlandish like BNS ******** Dylan Carlson for Alek Manoah hypothetical which would cost the Jays 11 median value on BTV. Atkins gains BTV median value in trades, he rarely loses it.

Hypothetical trade Vlad Jr and Espinal to SD for Tatis Jr and Machado. Who says no? Value wise it grades out as a win for the Jays on BTV (2.8 median value out and 7 in). Most trades Atkins makes usually have the Jays gaining around 5-10 median value on BTV.

Projecting as a contender in the preseason is different than actually seeing the players underperform projections over a full 162 and still believing it. I seriously doubt you thought they were still a contender once the regular season ended. Preseason I'll give you, they were projections darlings for sure.

It's all positivity trolling, no one seriously believes this year's team had an offense fit for a contender.. All we can do is hope the Jays offense is fixed next year.

That would be an absolute masterclass fleece if Shatkins could pull that off. Vlad's value on BTV is only 0.3 now (no one should be surprised by this, he's literally a replacement level DH that's going to make 20M in arbitration), while Soto's value on BTV is 22.9.

Dylan Carlson straight up for Alek Manoah grades as a huge L for the Jays on BTV, so I guess BNS is now a non-believer in Manoah?

BNS was saying on a podcast recently he thinks what Espinal is at this point, at his arb projection for 2024, is not worth rostering on the 40 man.

Of the ones BNS actually thinks are plausible here, I like scenarios 9 and 10 the most.

Not sure why any Jays fan would doubt the potential that fWAR illustrates Varsho clearly has. You can wish the Jays traded any of the other 2 catchers besides Moreno, and also be a big fan of Varsho moving forward. On a semi-related note, would you consider a 1B/DH who put up only 0.4 fWAR in 525 PA at 1B this season, but is projected to make 20M+ in arbitration, a trade/non-tender candidate?

Very happy for Moreno and Gurriel, incredible run for the DBacks to make it this far!

For what it's worth, because I'm guessing you consider me part of the "anti-Kirk crew", number 1, I actually like Kirk as a catcher in general, just much less than both Moreno and Jansen because of his almost certain lack of longevity at the position due to being basically the most obese player ever to play in the MLB (when comparing weight relative to height). Like I said in a previous post, valuable catchers like him do not grow on trees, unless you're the Blue Jays who had 3 valuable catchers last offseason, and chose to deal literally the most valuable one by far with the most longevity in Moreno just to quench their thirst for Varsho (who I'm still a fan of in general because valuable everyday CF like him also do not grow on trees). Number 2, Kirk is definitely the most likely to rebound in 2024, ahead of both full time DH Vlad and minor leaguer Manoah. The amount of money that Vlad has burned off his future earnings (everyone used to think he was a future 500M player) has to be weighing on his mind a bit, plus it's about to get even worse for him once the rest of the baseball world realizes that Vlad is a full time DH and therefore doesn't have a defensive position anymore. Guys like Dan Szymborski who developed the ZiPS projection system have been making a good case but it hasn't reached the mainstream yet. Most still think Vlad is not just a 1B, but a gold glove 1B for some reason. I still remember the good ol days when he was supposed to be a generational 3B prospect. Manoah is just too self absorbed to turn it around. If he was actually serious about turning his career around he would have reported to Buffalo like a good soldier for the organization instead of whining and making up fake injuries, I'm guessing because he just couldn't believe how much he sucks now and rationalized it in his head with denial (I can't suck, so I must be injured).

Cmon connorp, you must know very well at this point that these types of arguments only work on here when used to defend Shatkins, and no one else.

Pretty sure I read somewhere that Kirk is basically the most obese player in MLB history (when comparing weight relative to height). Him being 5'8" plus how obese he is really sets him apart.

Yeah it should have been obvious to everyone. You have 2 non-obese catchers and 1 obese catcher. Odd one out should have been clear. The only possible argument against moving Kirk that would have made sense involves Jansen, but IMO I still take the injury prone catcher who won't regress physically to a full time DH in the near future, over the obese catcher whose obesity will cause him to regress to a full time DH in the very near future. Main point is, Moreno should have been treated like the DBacks treated Carroll with their OF surplus (he was the only untouchable). My rankings for catcher I wanted out last offseason were 1 Kirk, 2 Jansen, and Moreno not even a consideration to move. And again (because the Kirk fangirls keep assuming the other side thinks this way) no I don't think Kirk would have garnered a similar value return to Moreno, but I still don't give a f***. He should have been the one out the door no matter how much worse the return would have been.

Yeah at this point it's best for the Jays to just ride it out with Kirk until his body tells him he's a full time DH. After losing Moreno we don't have the catcher depth to move Kirk now, even though in the very near future he will regress physically to only being capable of full time DH. This is a guy who is on the record saying he looks forward to his cheat days.

Should have traded Kirk for whatever the best offer from any other team in the league was. Didn't necessarily have to be for a good return as you suggest. Not like Atkins made a good return a necessity when trading Moreno, he was perfectly fine with getting fleeced.

I don't think Kirk non-believers have ever denied that his obesity is the reason why they don't believe in him. Valuable catchers don't grow on trees. Moreno will be one for a very long time, while Kirk is a soon-to-be full time DH once his obesity ends his catching days earlier than most.