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deanmike

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Everything posted by deanmike

  1. I agree, but it's probably easy for you to be optimistic here given his competition for the strong side of the 3B platoon is Biggio.
  2. Joc's AAV with the DBacks is 12.5M, which even under BNS and Zwelling's 12M remaining estimate on their recent At the Letters pod, pretty much fits. They would have easily remained under the 2nd threshold too if they got Joc because they sit 18M clear at the moment (assuming Vlad goes to his arb hearing and wins).
  3. Judgement on what? U talking about that Soler+Chapman+Grichuk in, and Garcia+Espinal out idea I saw a page or 2 back?
  4. I guess I didn't want a bunch of people to set themselves up for disappointment when the Jays only add 1 more bat and call it an offseason. Not just on this board, I've been seeing this sentiment everywhere from Jays fans. A lot of fans (maybe casuals?) seem to think that Atkins needs to overpay Chapman because they don't like the Biggio/IKF platoon (which could easily provide 2/3 of Chapman's fWAR at 3B for roughly 50-55% of his eventual AAV assuming he signs for 20M AAV or more), AND add 1 of Bellinger/Soler/JDM/Turner for everyday 1B/DH to "turn his offseason around after whiffing on Ohtani."
  5. Admittedly never really been much of an SNL guy brutha
  6. Dude, some sports message boards have like mod bots that auto infract u for saying swear words. Crazy s*** man
  7. Guys cmon, I don't deserve to have my own team. Love y'all and love this board I wouldn't change it for anything. The not overly moderated real banter that goes on here is a unique gem among baseball message boards and possibly sports message boards in general. Sports boards are all too overly moderated these days.
  8. Not for Soler, not for JDM, not for Chapman, and/or not for Bellinger (assuming Chapman/Belly each get roughly 20M AAV or more). The Ohtani vs. non-Ohtani budget rumours were always real.
  9. Rogers Sportsnet mouthpieces have historically been pretty plugged in about what the budget is.
  10. I'm not saying it would be a big deal. I've mentioned previously that last seasons final luxury tax payroll was about 4-5M higher than their opening day and also about 4-5M over the 2nd threshold per Spotrac. And last season they capped their offseason spending at just under the 2nd tax threshold (according to Spotrac, Fangraphs says their luxury tax payroll last season was 246M which was 7M under last season's 2nd threshold).
  11. There were some on this board who thought me saying they had 18M left to spend and would pretty much cap spending just under the 2nd threshold was too low of an estimate, and a more realistic estimate of where they would cap spending was just under the 3rd threshold (this was always unrealistic). Turns out even my estimate was being too generous.
  12. Certain salaries can still be moved out to make it more than 12M (Espinal/Garcia/Richards)
  13. According to BNS and Arden Zwelling on their recent At the Letters pod, their understanding is the Blue Jays likely only have around 10-12M left to spend based on Shapiro's comments regarding 2024 budget being similar to 2023. Relevant context, based on their discussion earlier in the pod about Vlad's arb case, they seem to think the Jays are fine with it going to a hearing because 1) Apparently they aren't incentivized to do a Bo-type arb avoidance deal with him, and 2) It's pretty obvious Vlad is going to win his case so the Jays probably aren't worried it could be a relationship-damaging hearing (this idiot's arb ask was 500k lower than what Fangraphs projected he would make, of course he's gonna win). Guess what guys? Everyone s***ing on me for thinking I knew how much they had left to spend were right, and I was wrong... I WAS BEING TOO GENEROUS AND THEY HAVE EVEN LESS THAN I THOUGHT LMFAOOOOOO Some of the s***** offseason ideas on here were more unrealistic than even I imagined lol
  14. Depending on how cheap Grichuk signs for and if the Jays try to squeeze Vlad in arb, maybe. I'm assuming 14-15M AAV for Soler and the Jays have 18M or less left under the 2nd threshold. The reason why I say "or less" is because if the Jays and Vlad come to a pre arb settlement it will most likely be a Bo-type arb avoidance deal that covers his remaining arb years and walks him to FA, with an AAV that will obviously be higher than if the Jays were to push for a 1 year settlement. However, all signs have been pointing to an Espinal trade all offseason so I almost want to assume the Jays have around 21M or less left, if Espinal is indeed shipped out.
  15. Both I find are preferable to pretty much any other yearly FA contract projections out there.
  16. Nope. To follow up on this, Scott Mitchell did a podcast appearance today and around the 17:30 mark he said Soler signing is imminent and wouldn't be surprised if he signs today. Seems like a matter of when, not if, for Soler to the Blue Jays. Also for anyone who prefers JDM or Turner over Soler, just know that Ross Atkins will NEVER choose an FA who projects for 0.7 (Turner) or 0.5 (JDM) fWAR over 1.9 fWAR (Soler). No one should be surprised that Soler is the preferred target here.
  17. Over the years I've found Fangraphs projections are surprisingly accurate for contracts
  18. I know right Like call me a hater Alek for not wanting u to be a fatass Dorito addict minor league scrub anymore.
  19. https://bluejaysnation.com/news/bullpen-flexibility-in-short-supply-for-blue-jays-following-yariel-rodriguez-signing
  20. Kinda seems like whoever doesn't get Soler between the Jays and DBacks end up with JDM
  21. https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/bellinger-snell-best-landing-spots-for-11-mlb-free-agents This one?
  22. Some actually just want to free up money to overpay either Chapman or Bellinger, which might be even worse than just believing Yimi is bad. I've been heavily against being the team that overpays either one of those guys since before the offseason even started. Chappy/Belly boys gotta realize eventually that neither one of these guys is the missing piece to win the World Series. We are just as likely to win with what we have now without overpaying either one of them
  23. You should put yourself to better use and instead go play in highway traffic.
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