deanmike

Grichuk to the DBacks for 2M

These 2 posts from BNS, plus Chris Black's Kool Aid thread on him has me thinking the Rogers company line is he's probably making the team as the 13th position player over guys like Clement/Horwitz.

The only reason I posted it is because it's Atkins answers on Orelvis/Barger questioning And not trying to sound like BNS here but considering what Soler got I am very happy Mitchell was wrong about that

Orelvis no longer a 3B prospect confirmed Barger is splitting RF/3B in spring so him at 3B isn't completely dead

If you are not even against what I was saying and provided a rebuttal just for the sake of it, that's still fine by me lmao at least you unlimited budget truthers finally admit you're wrong. And that's a 2 sentence post for you there bitch boi.

We are in agreement on this. I have never denied the rumours that there was an Ohtani and non-Ohtani budget, and the Ohtani budget was much higher. I don't think just Espinal and Richards out is enough AAV subtracted. Jays are currently roughly 12.2M under the 2nd threshold (per Spotrac). If they cleared only Espinal+Richards AAVs that would put them at only 17.1M under the 2nd threshold. Assuming Chapman and Bellinger both get roughly 20M AAV, your scenario here would put the Jays roughly 2.9M over the 2nd threshold. Last year's final lux tax payroll was roughly 5M above the 2nd threshold and the opening day lux tax payroll was just under the 2nd threshold. So basically they used 5M of wiggle room in season (this is if you trust Spotrac). If you trust Fangraphs payroll numbers, the Jays never even spent into the 2nd threshold last season, and by extension have never in franchise history Highest estimate of what the Jays luxury tax bill may have been last season was roughly 5.5M (my own math also matched up with Spotrac's 5.5M number over Fangraphs so I've been using their payroll numbers). Since the Jays are a repeat tax team this season instead of last season when they were a 1st year tax team, every dollar spent over the base tax threshold (237M in 2024) is taxed 30% instead of 20% last year. There is also a 12% surcharge for every dollar spent over the 2nd threshold (257M in 2024). So using your Espinal+Richards out and Chapman or Bellinger in scenario, the Jays tax bill from the base threshold overages alone would be 6M (already higher than last season's tax bill). When factoring in the 2.9M in 2nd threshold overages, they would have a tax bill of roughly 1.2M on those overages alone. Total 2024 tax bill for your hypothetical scenario is roughly 7.2M, significantly higher than last season's final lux tax bill and this would be opening day before any in season wiggle room is used. Plus the thresholds increased by 4M this year so they're already spending more money than last season to begin with if they simply spend to the base threshold limit. Do you really think that hypothetical is realistic, involving a projected tax bill higher than last season's before opening day, when we don't even know for sure if the Jays have EVER spent into the 2nd threshold in their franchise's history? I think a lot of posters here are severely underestimating the stinginess of Ed Rogers, especially considering the failure of last season's team to meet the organization's high internal expectations. With all of that being said, if it's Garcia instead of Richards out or all 3 of them out, that is way closer to realistic.

Nope. I've been told all offseason by the unrealistic optimists that for the right player at the right price they believed ownership would authorize the 2nd threshold before the season even starts. Shedding those guys would be moves to help remain just under the 2nd threshold. Also semi-related, thoughts on the Jays potentially subtracting some of those guys to maybe give Bellinger a 20M AAV deal with term? Passan was saying they might still be in on him.

You wish Laila. We have optionable pieces on the projected 26-man right now and fringe 40-man guys to DFA if needed. We all know it's in regards to AAV trimming. Except for the unrealistic optimists who were trying to tell me I don't know s***.

Mitch White could be one of the biggest X Factors of spring training. I'd say there's a decent chance he outperforms Manoah, and being out of options after an impressive spring could mean roster spot for White. Also I don't remember where I saw this but apparently there's no minor league assignment clause for Yariel. So theoretically he doesn't have a roster spot locked but at 6.4M AAV I would guess they expect him to earn a roster spot out of spring.

I definitely think they're prepping AAV clearing moves in the event they can snag one of them for what they feel is a reasonable cost. Putting themselves over the 2nd threshold before the season starts to land one of them, I would parrot you here and say 0% chance. And no one should be disappointed in anyone but penny pinching Ed Rogers when the Jays do not open the 2024 season as 2nd threshold spenders.

That would give them roughly 19.2M remaining under the 2nd threshold...pretty close to 20M. Question is would the FO even want to move Garcia and Richards? They would obviously move Espinal.

Maybe it is possible, in a roughly 2% chance at most kind of way if I had to guess.

Considering the Jays had a pseudo-stated preference of left handed bats from the Rogers mouthpieces (I believe the exact verbiage was "prefer a lefty bat, but will get the best fit available regardless of L/R"), I doubt they subtract a lefty bat who had a wRC+ of 125 against RHP after making changes to his plate approach in mid May just to save 4.2M AAV.

This opinion seems unrealistically hopeful and directly contradicts what Rogers mouthpieces have been saying about the offseason basically being done after the Turner signing, outside of maybe minor moves like let's say an Espinal for Slater trade. Rogers mouthpieces from Sportsnet are historically way more plugged in about the budget than even the respectable national reporters who rarely miss on other stuff like Passan and Rosenthal.

I don't disagree with this, but I would be pleasantly shocked if ownership authorized that kind of a tax bill increase after how last season went relative to their higher internal expectations.

Someone replied to the 2nd post asking him about Chapman and he re-affirmed what he said around the time he was early on the KK and IKF adds, he's not coming back either. Espinal outgoing for Slater would not be a surprising trade at all.

You think ownership would authorize an opening day 2024 luxury tax payroll that is anywhere from 7 to 22M higher (depending on whether you trust Spotrac or Fangraphs more for payroll stuff) than last season's final luxury tax payroll by giving either one of these guys 20M AAV, pushing them into the 2nd threshold before the season even starts?

Read what I wrote Jiminycricket. I said Rogers mouthpieces, by that I mean guys like BNS/Shi/Zwelling, not myself. Unless you think I am a "let it all out burner" for one of these guys to let off all the negativity they gotta hold inside. I will neither confirm nor deny that if that is your accusation.

With what money Greeno19? Ownership won't authorize going deep into the 2nd threshold as a repeater tax team for effin Bellinger LOL. I believe the Rogers mouthpieces when it comes to budget.

If the Jays end up signing Bellinger somehow, there's basically only 1 way it can go in terms of roster ramifications and it isn't KK becomes the 4th OF Jays would probably try to get off Springer's contract (I've seen this mentioned as a legit possibility by insiders but not since the Jays lost out on Ohtani) in a trade to free up AAV, and RF for Bellinger. Leadoff hitter role would be taken over by Bichette in this scenario. Lineup vs RHP: C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad 2B Biggio/Schneider 3B IKF/Biggio/Turner SS Bichette LF Varsho CF Kiermaier RF Bellinger DH Turner/Vlad Lineup vs LHP: C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad/Clement/Turner 2B Espinal/Clement 3B IKF/Turner/Espinal SS Bichette LF Schneider CF Varsho RF Bellinger DH Turner/Vlad/non-catching C

Honestly the 2022 team was more disappointing to me than the 2023 team. The disappointment for last year's team was just amplified because the casuals hated how "boring to watch" a pitching+defense team which struggled offensively was.

Wasn't talking to u Spankmeister666

Term, I would love to hear your Kool Aid spin on this specifically as you are the biggest fan of Cody Bellinger on the planet.

Nvm ******** Vlad won his case as expected