deanmike

Chapman probably thinks his chances of ending up on a contender are better by signing with an inevitable seller who will trade him to a known contender in-season, versus him having to make a guess in the offseason by signing with whoever he thinks is a contender.

Jays won't go into the 2nd threshold until they make in season additions. 30% tax for all overages already as a 2nd year tax team. For going into the 2nd threshold there is a 12% surcharge on overages within the 2nd threshold on top of the 30% tax. Example, last season they were taxed 20% on all overages as a 1st year tax team. Then the 5M they spent in season crossing into the 2nd threshold was taxed 20% plus a 12% surcharge.

Trading Garcia and Espinal would only free up roughly 8.7M in 2024 AAV. I doubt 26.7M will be enough to settle Vlad's arb case before the hearing, sign either Chapman/Bellinger, and sign either Soler/JDM.

Then give the unrealistic offseason ideas a rest, including the belief that the Jays will spend every dollar available to them under the 3rd threshold in order to bankroll these unrealistic offseason ideas.

People talking about it doesn't mean the Jays are actually going to do it. Some casuals just want to free up money to overpay one of Chapman/Bellinger on top of a DH/OF add (I have actually seen many casuals suggest this unfortunately both on and off this board). What the Jays are actually going to do is settle Vlad's arb case, then use whatever they have left under the 2nd threshold (18M or less) to add 1 DH/OF and call it an offseason. Like last season, they will spend into the 2nd threshold as in season wiggle room, maybe by more than 5M if the 2024 team is looking more promising than last year's team did at the deadline.

Just to put things into perspective, if the Jays were to spend as much as 276M in luxury tax commitments for 2024 (just under the 3rd threshold), that would represent roughly a 7% increase in luxury tax commitments from 2023 to 2024 and a tax bill close to triple what it was last season. I can almost guarantee ownership doesn't authorize this after 2023 was viewed within the organization as failing to meet internal expectations. Ownership finally authorized Shatkins to be a tax paying team last offseason because the Vlad+Bo Jays made the playoffs for the first time in a 162 game season, viewed by ownership as an improvement from 2021 where they missed the playoffs after making the playoffs in the shortened 2020 season.

To address the bolded, all I have basically been saying is they will spend around the same as last year when looking at luxury tax commitments. They spent to just under the 2nd tax threshold last offseason and spent 5M into the 2nd threshold in season. I think they will do roughly the same this season (actually more than last year regardless of thresholds because the thresholds increase every year). You are high if you think the Jays increase luxury tax commitments by 20M compared to last season and aim to only remain under the 3rd threshold of 277M. That would absolutely qualify as a significant increase in budget which is just a pipe dream.

The AAV of the DH they sign will be closer to 20M than 10M

Edited my post to clarify. I basically didn't mean to include Garcia, more so meant how do you replace not only Biggio and Espinal's roster spots but the PAs they are projected to cover as part of the three way 3B platoon?

Who would then fill the roster spots of Biggio and Espinal? Steamer600 projects Espinal at 1.9 fWAR and Biggio at 1.2. In the system already, Alan Roden, Clement, Horwitz, Tanner Morris, Otto Lopez, Barger, Palmegiani, and Leo Jimenez are all projected in the 1.1-1.7 fWAR range. Although subtracting Biggio and Espinal also subtracts PAs covered at 3B considering they are both as of now going to be part of a three way 3B platoon along with IKF. Clement doesn't even count because he makes league minimum. So trading him and replacing him with a guy making league minimum wouldn't provide any luxury tax relief.

Only 2 things left in the offseason for the Jays with a maximum of 18M to work with under the 2nd tax threshold: settling Vlad's arb case and signing Soler/JDM as the DH/OF add (assuming no Joc because he reportedly wants to stay on the west coast). Your 2024 Blue Jays (Opening day luxury tax commitments: 256.9M, just under the 2nd threshold): C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad 2B Schneider/Biggio/Espinal 3B Biggio/IKF/Espinal SS Bichette LF Varsho/Schneider CF KK/Varsho RF Springer/Soler DH Soler or JDM 13th position player who barely plays but is cheap: Clement 5 SP: Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Kikuchi, Manoah/White/Yariel 8 Relievers: Romano, Swanson, Green, Mayza, Garcia, Richards, 2 of Cabrera/Yariel/White 1 of Manoah/White/Yariel/Cabrera will not make the team to start (2-3 of them are optionable depending on if there's some kind of minor league assignment clause in Yariel's deal). Garcia/Richards/Biggio/Espinal also represent roughly 15M total in 2024 AAV that can be shipped out, but they currently all hold 26-man roster spots and specific roles so could be tough to replace some of them with cheaper guys.

Could very well end up being less than 18M depending on what happens with Vlad in arb. His ask was 19.9M (which is the assumption I used for the 18M remaining projection) and probably wins his case if it gets that far. But if the Jays end up coming to a Bo type arb avoidance agreement with him (let's say a 2 year extension that walks him to FA like Bo's 3 year extension walks him to FA), the AAV (and luxury tax hit) will almost certainly be higher than 19.9M. IIRC Bo was not projected to make 11.2M in arb the year he signed his extension but that's what the AAV of his extension is.

Even if you are correct about this, here's 1 thing I can 100% guarantee you. Jays opening day payroll last season was 5M lower than their season end payroll and they only spent roughly 4.7M into the 2nd threshold last season. If I'm gonna be optimistic and agree with you that ownership greenlights the 2nd threshold for the 2nd season in a row, they will definitely cap their offseason spending at just under the 2nd threshold and spend into the threshold using in season wiggle room again.

How would the Jays fit all these additions into the 18M they have left under the 2nd luxury tax threshold? Manoah for Kim alone is a 7.3M increase, although I see that there is only 1 spot left on your roster for a position player. If you give that roster spot to Clement/Horwitz and ship out both Biggio and Espinal that's 6.9M in salary combined which pretty much covers the Manoah for Kim trade. Curious to know how you fit Soler+Duvall+Ryu into roughly 17.5M total, although I guess shipping out relievers like Yimi+Richards who only have 1 year before FA left would free up another 8.5M so I guess you could say up to maybe 26M total. But that's only if the salaries of Biggio+Espinal+Garcia+Richards are all moved. Also has to be factored in that Shatkins like to leave in season wiggle room for the deadline so they won't use every dollar that they have left under the budget.

Does the p in connorp stand for pedo?

Pedos are useless wastes of the Earth's oxygen. They should all do right by the rest of the Earth's oxygen breathers by hanging themselves/playing in traffic.

Manoah, Espinal and Otto Lopez for Kim, Eguy Rosario and Alek Jacob. Gain of 5.1 BTV surplus value for the Jays so within the "possibly acceptable for Atkins" range.

Let's not pretend that the widely held assumption wasn't that Atkins was bluffing/posturing and that there was no way he would only add 1 more BAT. The closer to 1 than 3 comment was clearly referring to bats not pieces in general. No one has been asking him about pitching in these offseason pressers. Not that I disagree with adding pitching depth that's never a bad thing.

My assumption has the Jays with 19.999999M in overages, just remaining under the 2nd threshold.

True forgot about that aspect, so the safe assumption is 18M left to spend then (less when factoring in wiggle room Shatkins will leave) because Vlad probably wins his arb case or gets a Bo-type arb avoidance contract. The different tax thresholds are explained well on this webpage: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

The assumption for the 20M when I said 18-20 range is Vlad loses his arb case and Yariel's AAV spread on his 4 year deal is an even split. Most likely neither of those things will be true, because I've read that Vlad most likely wins his arb case if it goes that far (Fangraphs projected him to make 500k more than what his ask was). Also the AAV on Yariel's deal almost certainly won't be an even split, but I assumed that for simplicity sake.

3rd threshold is obviously completely out of the question if that's what you're referring to by spending past the 2nd threshold. The Jays spent roughly 4.8M into the 2nd threshold last season so the 2nd threshold has already been greenlit before, but they were a 1st year tax team. This season I doubt they even spend into the 2nd threshold at all being a repeat tax team.

Ownership authorized a tax bill of roughly 5.5M last season. The tax bill even if my generous estimate is correct will be roughly 6M this season. Trust me Max I seriously doubt ownership authorizes Shatkins crossing into the 2nd threshold again this season, because every million spent after that will be taxed an extra 12%, on top of the Jays already being taxed 30% in general compared to 20% last season for every dollar spent over the tax because they are now a repeat tax team. Basically the Jays are going to have a slightly higher tax bill than last season even if their luxury tax commitments are the same (which is what my estimate is). I find it borderline impossible to imagine that in ownership's eyes (imagine the stingy eyes of Ed Rogers specifically) they want to be paying a significantly higher tax bill than the 2023 team when that team failed to meet the organization's internal expectations.

I don't think they'll spend all of the 18-20M in the offseason, like others have said Shatkins usually likes to leave a bit of room under the budget as in season wiggle room.

I heavily doubt ownership authorizes a significant increase in luxury tax commitments after last season was internally viewed as failing to meet expectations. Which is what being a 2nd year 2nd threshold team would qualify as considering the tax thresholds have also increased compared to 2023. Capping the luxury tax commitments just below the 2nd tax threshold would make the 2024 luxury tax commitments borderline identical to the luxury tax commitments of last season's team. So similar down to the surcharges (1st year 2nd threshold tax paying team pays almost identical surcharges to a 2nd year 1st threshold tax paying team). And funnily enough, Shapiro said 2024 budget would be roughly the same as last season. Compare this to the beginning of last offseason when they were asked about the budget and Shatkins were essentially bragging every chance they got that they were the 1st FO to convince Jays ownership under Rogers to not penny pinch and spend into the tax (also being one of the top spending teams in general). If there was another budget increase happening I almost guarantee we would have known about it from Shatkins bragging. I obviously can't say I know what the budget is for certain but I would be very surprised if I was wrong about this (as in the Jays increase budget significantly for a 2nd straight season). 256M as the budget for luxury tax commitments is pretty much as generous of an estimate as I can give outside of a budget increase.