deanmike

Jays likely have a luxury tax payroll internal cap of 256M for 2024, which is just below the 2nd luxury tax threshold (which adds a 12% surcharge). Last season they were a 2nd threshold luxury tax spender (went roughly 25M over the luxury tax threshold of 233M in 2023). In 2024 the luxury tax threshold is 237M, and Shapiro said the budget will be roughly the same as last season. 258M of luxury tax commitments in 2023 compared to 256M in 2024 is roughly the same, and the 20% tax plus 12% surcharge from being a 1st year 2nd threshold tax team in 2023 should amount to a similar tax bill as being a 2nd year 1st threshold tax team in 2024 (30% tax with no surcharge). Per Fangraphs the Jays current estimated luxury tax payroll is roughly 223M (updated post KK signing and includes arb projections). Before the KK signing it was roughly 213M in luxury tax commitments. 256-213 equals 43M, and 10.5 divided by 43 is roughly 24.4%. Hence why L54 rounded up slightly and said 25%.

Sherminator isn't in the clear yet.

Sorry Max

I heavily agree with the Bader over Taylor sentiment

If Michael A Taylor is still eyeing a starting CF role from the team that signs him as opposed to accepting a 4th OF role which would be his optimal role here, it could mean the Jays are willing to prioritize run prevention at the expense of offense again in 2024 (Varsho would spend another season in LF).

Take this with a grain of salt because it's Morosi.

When people stop proposing trade ideas that Atkins wouldn't realistically pull the trigger on himself I'll stop with the daily reminders. Minimum +5 surplus value for the Jays on all future trade proposal ideas (until Atkins is no longer GM I guess).

There is no way Ross would do both for Tucker. The Jays would be losing 4.4 BTV surplus value in that deal, while in reality Atkins gains between 5-10 surplus value on almost every trade he makes (at the time these trades are made). Something like Tiedemann plus Kasevich is way closer to realistic in terms of something the Jays could actually consider pulling the trigger on.

It actually does help them short term financially as well. Springer makes 24.1M in 2024, compared to Yelich at 26M and Adames with an arb projection of 12.4M. Even with major salary retention on Yelich (which I imagine would be spread out among the 5 remaining guaranteed years on his deal) Brewers would save money in salary commitments for 2024. Springer and Leo Jimenez for Adames and Yelich (20M out of 130M retained) works out to a gain in surplus value of 5.7 for the Jays (barely clearing the minimum acceptance threshold of +5 that Atkins gets in almost every trade he makes). Thoughts on this hypothetical Max? If the salary retention is spread out evenly Brewers save roughly 10-10.5M in 2024, not even factoring the future savings (which I'm guessing Brewers ownership would view as at least a slight positive).

Aren't the Brewers one of the teams trying to offload salary commitments because of the regional networks thing?

His surplus value on BTV reflects that. Only 11.1, should be a realistic and feasible trade target for Atkins. I would also kind of be interested in working a Yelich for Springer swap in there. Brewers would still have to eat money on that deal, but Springer only having 3 years left compared to Yelich's 5 plus a mutual option will still save them money in terms of total guaranteed money committed.

You've convinced me, I am now heavily against signing both Chapman and Belli and hope the Jays lose out on both for their own good. Atkins landing his Plan B Adames would likely work out better for the team.

It kind of seems like the Jays see the 3B FA market as Chapman or bust. If shortstop Willy Adames is their other main 3B target they must really not like the rest of this 3B FA class. Also Feinsand is on drugs if he thinks Bellinger would split time between CF/1B here. That's an absolute waste of where he is needed. He would probably be the everyday LF and backup CF to Varsho. I've seen some say Springer would move to LF and Bellinger plays RF. This will not happen if the Jays already see him as an RF. For some reason they seem to be strict about corner OF versatility like that. Plan A for the 1B/DH split with Vlad should be Rhys Hoskins. It will allow the DH split to lean more heavily towards Vlad unlike when Belt was in this role last season. The 13 position players for 2024 then end up shaping out like this: C Jansen+Kirk 1B Hoskins 2B Biggio+Babe platoon SS Bo 3B Adames trade (I'm assuming no Chapman if they land Bellinger) LF Bellinger CF Varsho RF Springer DH Vlad Which leaves 2 spots left for bench bats, ideally a righty bat 4th OF who can play instead of Varsho against LHP, and some kind of a backup 3B because I doubt the team sees Biggio or Babe as a 3B option. I am definitely hoping the Cubs or Giants land Bellinger instead of us so the Jays can explore other LF options and maybe be more aggressive on Chapman. If someone can convince me Adames is a legit 3B option I am very willing to jump ship on the bring back Chapman train.

Source?

Not only that, IMO he's the only FA available that could reasonably play more innings at 1B than Vlad in 2024. I want to see more Vlad at DH not less.

I don't want the Jays to sign either of these players, but I would rather Chapman back than sign Bellinger. That's how much I don't want the Jays to be the team that ends up overpaying Bellinger.

I would do Adames+Yelich (and Brewers eat 40M of the 130M guaranteed still owed to Yelich) for Espinal and Otto Lopez.

I will be very disappointed if we are the team that inevitably heavily overpays Chapman and/or Bellinger.

Lmfao they pretty much blatantly say in this article that they knew reporting on this information early could have caused a change in how this played out. The last line of this blurb made me laugh the hardest. Yeah f***ing right Dodgersnation. They are extremely happy they became part of the story and played a part in Ohtani to the Dodgers, basically admitting that things took a 180 degree turn after their story was published. The people at Dodgersnation are absolute human scum pieces of s***. Their Ohtani to the Blue Jays story was a blatant Hail Mary anti jinx attempt that f***ing worked. Moral of the story, a lot of the time the good guys don't win.

Apparently Jays will be diving into the Soler and Bellinger FA markets. If they miss out on Bellinger they will explore the OF trade market. They also are reportedly in on Hoskins, JD Martinez, Chapman, IKF, Joc, and Brantley.

Personally I don't believe there was a number another team could have offered that the Dodgers wouldn't have been willing to pay.

Apparently Ohtani's camp had lowkey given the Dodgers the right to match the highest offer from any other team. No other team had a chance from the start. It was always going to be the Dodgers.

Sharks fans booed John Tavares lol. If San Jose hockey fans booed John Tavares for not signing with them, Ohtani will inevitably get booed.

Passan retweeted this.