jmomcc

The only problem is that we don't know how the front offices value the players. like the kikuchi trade last year, if you go by how fangraphs rated our return on the astros list, they way way overpaid compared to kikuchi's surplus value. But in reality maybe we had bloss as a 45+ rather than a 50. If the current fangraphs prospect rankings are correct, we could get alcantara for something like roden, rojas, wagner. That seems light though.

this is a cool video. It shows you basically how to calculate surplus value and then use that to create realistic trade packages.

I think i'd be willing pay a good price for Alcantara. His stuff is still great. Ryan as well. After that, i'd be ok with a medium price for severino. Then, i'd drop way down to the rental back end section. The charlie morton/tyler mahle zone. As i said before also, someone smarter than me needs to look at the dodgers 40 man situation. There almost has to be a pitcher they would be willing to deal that could be a 6th starter for us. The bullpen is doable. I think you could really improve the bullpen, and if you can't get a top starter, maybe also get a real deal leverage reliever as well.

Hems under contract year for 35m payroll/25m luxury tax. Then club option in 2027.

Yea, which is why rounds 6-10 are often underslot. The thing i always find funny is the small differences. Like, why does one guy get 2.5k and another 5k.

They were talking today on effectively wild about research on international signings and they said that basically there is no correlation between bonus size and success rate. We tend to give out big bonuses and should probably stop.

You can go below that. You see 2.5k, 5k, 7.5k pretty regularly. I think i saw 1k once. It does count towards the pool to my knowledge.

Looking at the rental reliever market, there is decent depth there. I think you could grab a long relief, and then a couple of 7th inning types like sewald and have a better pen. Also, looking at the starting pitching... unless you are getting joe ryan or degrom, there are a lot of guys that aren't that great. Like more third playoff starter judged by their stuff numbers and underlying stuff. Like Lugo for example. I'd prefer scherzer and gausman start playoff games over him. Would there be anything to paying a steepish price for someone like griffin jax who has nasty stuff. Then have him, hoffman, and garcia for leverage. Then guys like sewald, little, fisher, rodriquez down a rung, then long relief (i like milner from texas). Then, you can run openers in front of berrios and maybe bauer? And also sign one back end starter. Basically make the deadline priority a drastically better pen. The dodgers also have pitching injured. If they have guys coming back, you could grab one of their young guys with options. That would be expensive. One reliever with options and nasty stuff is Holderman. Nasty stuff but bad control. Stick him in triple A and work on it and see if he can help when rosters expand. An interesting guy for next year is dustin may. His stuff numbers have completely fallen off in his walk year. But, i'd do a speculative free agent signing on him. My favourite for starting pitching at the deadline is still severino. I'm kind of unsure we would want that contract maybe.

Absolutely no data to judge this on but i feel like spreading the money around is a better international strategy. I hope we don't trade Rojas because he gives off real 4/5th starter for the jays as soon as next season vibes. With maybe more.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45709418/mlb-draft-2025-kiley-mcdaniel-recap-analysis-all-30-teams Worth a read. He seems to like a lot of our picks. Looks like other than Spencer there are another couple of senior pitchers he likes as well.

If he is complete dead money for the pirates, maybe we could use that to bring the price down on bednar. I don't love kellar but maybe him as well.

What do you think on cost? Its hard to know on rental bats but i'd like this trade.

I was thinking that too but a part of me thinks teams will keep a guy like that in the offseason in the hopes he goes on a heater and they can deal at the deadline? Where as now its like let's just get rid of him and save money. He does way more fit next year than this year though.

To me its mostly the defense. He was a 3 WAR player on a 125 games with league average offense. It also kind of fits the front office MO a bit. Giminez is a great defender who they think they can improve with the bat. Ditto for straw. Its a type they look for. And with bichette gone, there will be enough time available. If that happens .

My impression from this draft is its a change in direction to me in what we targeted, or it feels that way. Lots of outfield. Maybe that was seen as a weakness in the system. Joe Doyle on Twitter said he loved our draft if we sign everyone (obviously excluding the 20th rounder who seems an insurance pick). Elsewhere, it seems on most lists we got 5/6 top 150 prospects. That's not bad considering our pool and no second rounder.

I'd agree it's pretty tenuous for this year especially. Our dev guys would have to look at him and think there are things he can change. But i will make a case for next year especially. Firstly, he's a good fit for how we play. By most metrics he's the best 3B in baseball this year. We value defense. He has a below average strikeout rate. Not a great barrell rate but better than say clement. And a 110 max EV. He also has a pretty good z contact rate. If you could get him to 100 wrc+ he's a valuable player. If Bo goes, you could have an infield of vlad, clement, gimenez, hayes which should be the best infield defense in baseball. Outfield of Santander, Varsho, Springer. Barger would get a lot of time as two outfielders and vlad would be DHing regularly. I'd also try to get hayes to play second sometimes to get some platoon matchups and barger at third. Finally, he costs a similar amount to straw annually so he is cheap.

How about this for the guts of an idea.. Trade for - Kebryan Hayes - Caleb Ferguson from the pirates Ferguson has three good fastballs, led by a great sinker. Gets a ton of ground balls. Has got lucky somewhat this year HR wise. He had a slider last year graded as good, which he has not thrown at all this year. Seems to add/drop pitches a good bit so should be coachable. Middle relief with potential for more. He struck out way more people last year which seems to be related to losing the slider? Even without the below i'd be interested in him on his own. Hayes under the hood stats run ahead of his real ones pretty much constantly. Seems to have nagging back problems. Is a really good third baseman though. Could we unlock something in his swing? Could we also get him to play second? The key question for me is if hayes is bad money for the pirates. It won't be by WAR, but he does represent about 10% of their payroll. Overall, this might be cheaper than you'd think and also maybe a way to roll it all up with bednar as well.

He's a senior though? So surely not a ton over.

The guy we just got is 107 overall on fangraphs

There aren't many opportunities like that out there any more. Maybe we could convince the rockies they need a vet mentor lol. At the same time as long as rogers are prepared to spend, he does eat innings so not too bad.

My hope would be the angels. Not typically the smartest team but you are probably right.

I was thinking teams fighting for a playoff spot who need bulk innings.

Unless Parker is overslot, it feels like the are setting up to sign overslot later.

I'm guessing he is a hard sign. Maybe going to college.

Is that a rumour that's out there?