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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    I used to think Atkins was overly risk averse, but then he made signings like Kirby Yates and Yusei Kikuchi and that impression went right out the window.
  2. max silver
    You sounds like a used car salesman. The truth is not all cars are built with the same kind of reliability, and not all baseball players come with bodies with the same kind of durability. You can reliably predict that players like Kevin Kiermaier are going to suffer some sort of injury during a season which forces them to miss time so it is indeed possible to predict injury in certain players. Jansen has made 3 separate trips to the injured list in the last two seasons due to soft tissue injuries. It's been said that in baseball the best predictor of future injury is prior injuries, particularly in the most recent season. Jansen has far from a spotless injury history and is the oldest of the three, so I'll go ahead and predict he is the most likely of the three to miss time due to injury.
  3. max silver
    A Jansen/Kirk duo more than likely has the highest offensive output, but in the case of an inevitable Jansen injury you are left with the likes of Collins level players starting behind the plate half of the time as the team doesn't let Kirk start more than 3-4 times per week.
  4. max silver
    Considering this decade isn't even 30% over yet I won't put too much stock into looking back to the beginning of it. Bellinger and Kiermaier have similar realistic floors (Bellinger isn't likely as bad as his 2021 numbers look as he produced a .237 WOBA compared to a .281 xWOBA), and projection systems view them as producing value at a similar rate based on overall playing time. Kiermaier is the more affordable option but Bellinger still has a non zero chance of rediscovering some of his prior offensive mojo. It's far from a given who will turn out to be the better signing at this point. If Bellinger didn't end up receiving a crazy offer from the Cubs I would have been absolutely fine with Bellinger due to potential upside but the Jays operate under a tight budget so they can't be throwing money out the door on a ton of risky upside plays. At any rate if they do decide to go this route I'd much rather see them gamble on a Conforto signing as he's been an above average major league outfielder much more recently than Bellinger and feels a lot more likely to experience a bounce back season.
  5. max silver
    Stripling would accepted a qualifying offer in a heartbeat. It's obvious how MLB values him given the contract he just signed, so overpaying him by $7.5 million would have been a huge mistake.
  6. max silver
    Maybe there needs to be a designation for a 2 and a half times through the order pitcher to fully appreciate pitchers like Stripling.
  7. max silver
    I pulled this from another post as it's relevant here. Later in the season the ropes were taken off of Stripling and he became more than a twice through the order pitcher. He pitched a minimum of 6 innings in 7 of his last 9 starts, facing an average of 22 batters during these outings. Whether he can repeat his 2022 performance is far from a given but his new changeup was a game changer for him.
  8. max silver
    Later in the season the ropes were taken off of Stripling and he became more than a twice through the order pitcher. He pitched a minimum of 6 innings in 7 of his last 9 starts, facing an average of 22 batters during these outings.
  9. max silver
    The Giants may have found themselves an absolute bargain with this deal. If Stripling performs anywhere close to his 2022 levels he'll be in line for a nice payday next offseason.
  10. max silver
    Time will tell if the bat plays sufficiently to man a position like third base. Moreno obviously hasn't had a lot of MLB at bats so far but up to this point he performed like Santiago Espinal with less power. There is no guarantee that the power fully returns to anywhere near the level he produced in AA in 2021 and he's basically been a slap hitter since then.
  11. max silver
    It seems as though the front office may have overplayed their hand a little bit. Atkins stated that the Jays value their catchers more than the opposition does and perhaps their asking prices are set a little too high accordingly. I certainly wouldn't want them settling a subpar offer ala Oakland though so I'll just try to remain patient. I'm not particularly enthused about the idea of Moreno acting as a super utility player as he shows so much potential as a catcher. He has plenty of things he needs to smooth out behind the plate that I don't want him spending a lot of time and energy learning new positions. Rostering three catchers just doesn't leave a ton of time for Moreno and Kirk to work behind the plate in order to continue to develop their skills.
  12. max silver
    If Bellinger can rediscover his stroke he can end up as more than twice the player of Kiermaier. I just didn't think it was worth spending $17.5 million to find out.
  13. max silver
    It seems like possible trade partners are dwindling pretty rapidly. Pittsburgh signed Heinemann as a stop gap, Cleveland brought in Zunino, St. Louis signed Contreras, and Minnesota signed Vazquez. It's starting to look like Houston or bust as far as potential contender fits for Jansen.
  14. max silver
    You are aware there is more to successful pitching than inducing whiffs right?
  15. max silver
    Totally agree, no reason for cheap shots like that.
  16. max silver
    Shapiro has started that they have the ability to surpass the CBT limit if necessary. I imagine they might already be close with the combined Kiermaier and Bassist so if they are going to go over there's no sense pinching pennies to save something like $5 million past the limit as the penalties are pretty small for first time offenders.
  17. max silver
    Tampa didn't want to pay Kiermaier something like $13 million. That doesn't mean he isn't a nice pickup for less than that though for a competitive team in need of center field innings.
  18. max silver
    I'd much rather that offer be from a different team. The 35%k rate is so bad that he is nearly unplayable. Guys like Conforto, Benintendi and Brantley are much safer bets to not be total duds.
  19. max silver
    The team had success completely turning around the fortunes of Ray and Matz. The team has a full offseason to work with Kikuchi. It could very well be typical offseason fluff but I read a report that the club was very pleased with Kikuchi's offseason up to this point. There are two years left in the deal and Kikuchi was pretty filthy as a reliever. Iron out some of the command issues (mix of non competitive pitches and meatballs) and the raw tools are there for Kikuchi to provide plenty of value.
  20. max silver
    I don't know if the Padres have much at the major league level that they could offer in a trade for one of the Jays catchers.
  21. max silver
    For what it's worth pitchingbot ranks Bassitt's stuff as a 55, while Eno Sarris also rates his stuff as slightly above average. There's not a lot of red on his Statcast page but Statcast is a pretty incomplete indicator on it's own for measuring stuff.
  22. max silver
    At this point of his career Jackie Bradley Jr. is so bad at the plate that he is a sub-replacement level player. The Jays gave a combined 614 plate appearances to Tapia, JBJ and Zimmer last season, and had all of 0.2 WAR to show for it. Kiermaier gives the team a legitimate option to man center field when Springer is either DH'ing or manning right field.
  23. max silver
    Now I just don't know what to think as I read that Bassitt has zero stuff on this forum.
  24. max silver
    Oh come on man don't be obtuse. The A's made out like bandits with Brett Lawrie and Kevin Smith as major league ready pieces in the Donaldson and Chapman trades.
  25. max silver
    Bassitt's sinker velocity has held steady over the last 3 seasons, so declining velocity really doesn't appear to be the case. He doesn't rely on stuff to get his outs as he is elite at inducing soft contact. It appears as though he's missed about 7 total starts over the last three seasons, so he's been pretty damn durable/reliable. A few months of lower k output doesn't automatically mean that he will have the same issue for an entire season. This looks to be a really astute signing. Bassitt isn't flashy by any means but he has been a reliable mid-rotation starter since he became a full time starter in MLB. That is exactly what this team needed.
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