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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    Hopefully they can wrangle up a long term center field option through trade. If he proves he can hit major league pitching I think Barger is the likely heir apparent for Chapman. I'd love to see Chapman extended but I fail to see how the team can afford extensions for all of Vlad, Bo and Chapman unless they have plans for Steve Cohen levels of spending. It's going to be very interesting to see if they can thread the needle to make all the pieces fit together under the budget.
  2. max silver
    Might be a little more realistic to ask for an iPad or something.
  3. max silver
    Vlad has only managed to perform at that level once in his 4 career seasons up to this point. Hopefully the projections come to fruition but I certainly wouldn't want to stake significant money on it. If Vlad does reach those levels of performance again and the team has added another bat they still benefit to the same degree from the extra bat, but it serves to hedge their bets a bit if he doesn't.
  4. max silver
    The point that I'm making is that the actual penalty for going over the initial limit is very small in the grand scheme of things. The penalty for going over the first tier is only 20% for the first year. If the team is $1 million over they pay a penalty of $20000. If they go over the penalty by the maximum approx. $20 million the penalty for this is still only $4 million. If the budget is there to support going all the way up to the first tier the financial penalties are small enough that this should be little cause for concern.
  5. max silver
    This is like Todd returning from beyond the grave to grace us with his presence.
  6. max silver
    I didn't know Vlad was planning to play winter ball, for a dude that plays every day like he does this comes as a bit of a surprise.
  7. max silver
    I think if the team is already straddling the CBT limit there's no sense in pussyfooting around and ending up a million or two above. The penalties for being up to $20 million over amount to a tiny slap on the wrist so they should continue spending to fill the last remaining hole(s).
  8. max silver
    It appears as though Vlad has been busting his ass with his offseason workouts but still needs to gain the necessary (dinner) plate discipline to allow this hard work to fully pay off. I think he's the most naturally gifted hitter to ever work his way through the organization and 2021 provided a glimpse of what he's capable of.
  9. max silver
    The team as constructed should be pretty solid everywhere, and there is room for internal improvement in the lineup, rotation and bullpen which can allow each of these aspects to be more than just solid and become true strengths. There is potential for a great rotation if Berrios bounces back to close to previous levels of performance. The bullpen has a shot to be good if Swanson proves to be legit and not a one year wonder, and can be very good if Pearson finally avoids injury/illness long enough to provide innings. There are several candidates in the lineup who have potential to provide more offence than 2022 as well, such as Vlad rediscovering his form, Bo hitting more consistently, Gurriel rediscovering some of his lost power etc. The team has a very solid base, but I'll still go ahead and agree that I'd like to see another bat if the budget allows as the team is at the point where every potential win matters.
  10. max silver
    Steamer likes Thomas to improve to a 107 WRC+ for 2023. Combined with his defence he'd be a great long term piece, but moving Kirk or Moreno on the assumption that he is going to eventually fulfill his potential is a massive gamble.
  11. max silver
    That's a giant "if" though, I would rather the team hedge their bets and bring in another bat so in the case that 2022 Vlad is what we can expect moving forward then the offence hasn't taken a huge hit.
  12. max silver
    The team presently only has 3 legitimate outfield options for 2023, and Kiermaier is likely to receive 4th outfielder level playing time at most given his propensity for injury. I don't think lack of opportunity for playing time should be a huge concern for free agents at this point unless the team trades for another outfielder first.
  13. max silver
    He played in the Puerto Rican winter league. His numbers are very strong although the quality of opposition is certainly in question. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=franci000bow
  14. max silver
    If he bounces back he'll end up opting out after year 5.
  15. max silver
    Cueto did a pretty good job suppressing hard contact and missing barrels despite the complete lack of whiffs. His expected home runs total don't really take a dramatic jump in most ballparks save Texas and Milwaukee so some of his success may translate to other ballparks. His quality of competition wasn't great as you've mentioned, a look at his game log shows a lot of outings against the likes of the Royals, Twins, Athletics, Rangers etc. and not much in the way of higher quality opposition so it's natural to wonder how he would fare against tougher quality of opposition. Some of that concern could be mitigated due to the more balanced schedule MLB is finally implementing, so he wouldn't regularly be facing the juggernaut opponents in the AL East.
  16. max silver
    Any word on potential salary range for Cueto? It seems that even a season or two ago before this years insanity back of the rotation starters were earning in the range of $10 million, so Cueto may actually cost real money to sign.
  17. max silver
    It's probably a little early for the obligatory Sportsnet.ca best shape of his life articles.
  18. max silver
    Arod was likely taking every available PED known to man so he's not the best example of a player who defied father time.
  19. max silver
    We don't have a lot of available data points yet but the early returns don't show Moreno as somebody who has the necessary athleticism to play in the outfield. His average sprint speed has been pretty pedestrian at 27.4 feet per second. He does have 1 bolt to his credit where he managed to hit 30 feet per second so maybe he's ultimately faster on the high end than the average sprint speed would suggest. I'm reasonably happy with the bullpen where it stands and think that the outfield is a much higher priority at this point. There are some interesting potential reinforcements working their way up through the minor leagues for a change so the team won't be running out a motley collection of sub replacement shitballers unless there is a severe rash of injuries.
  20. max silver
    I think this shows how quickly the Jays are approaching their available budget limit. Stripling is likely to be a bargain at the rate he signed for, but the team still needs to add another outfielder if they intend to avoid running a collection of utility players in the outfield on a regular basis. In the event that both Springer and Kiermaier are out due to injury the outfield suddenly starts looking incredibly weak. They also need to be mindful of leaving room for mid-season additions as well if holes in need of patching become apparent once the season is underway.
  21. max silver
    Replace probably with absolutely or definitely and this post will be a lot more accurate. But the Jays have a veritable smorgasbord of players who can reliably man second base and have that as their primary position, vs only two who have played short stop at the major league level for any amount of time. Move Bo to short and having Merrifield/Biggio/Lopez on the roster becomes pretty redundant as they aren't going to receive any playing time at their best defensive spot on the diamond. This could open up some trade avenues but none of these players would have much in the way of trade value anyway.
  22. max silver
    I used to think Atkins was overly risk averse, but then he made signings like Kirby Yates and Yusei Kikuchi and that impression went right out the window.
  23. max silver
    You sounds like a used car salesman. The truth is not all cars are built with the same kind of reliability, and not all baseball players come with bodies with the same kind of durability. You can reliably predict that players like Kevin Kiermaier are going to suffer some sort of injury during a season which forces them to miss time so it is indeed possible to predict injury in certain players. Jansen has made 3 separate trips to the injured list in the last two seasons due to soft tissue injuries. It's been said that in baseball the best predictor of future injury is prior injuries, particularly in the most recent season. Jansen has far from a spotless injury history and is the oldest of the three, so I'll go ahead and predict he is the most likely of the three to miss time due to injury.
  24. max silver
    A Jansen/Kirk duo more than likely has the highest offensive output, but in the case of an inevitable Jansen injury you are left with the likes of Collins level players starting behind the plate half of the time as the team doesn't let Kirk start more than 3-4 times per week.
  25. max silver
    Considering this decade isn't even 30% over yet I won't put too much stock into looking back to the beginning of it. Bellinger and Kiermaier have similar realistic floors (Bellinger isn't likely as bad as his 2021 numbers look as he produced a .237 WOBA compared to a .281 xWOBA), and projection systems view them as producing value at a similar rate based on overall playing time. Kiermaier is the more affordable option but Bellinger still has a non zero chance of rediscovering some of his prior offensive mojo. It's far from a given who will turn out to be the better signing at this point. If Bellinger didn't end up receiving a crazy offer from the Cubs I would have been absolutely fine with Bellinger due to potential upside but the Jays operate under a tight budget so they can't be throwing money out the door on a ton of risky upside plays. At any rate if they do decide to go this route I'd much rather see them gamble on a Conforto signing as he's been an above average major league outfielder much more recently than Bellinger and feels a lot more likely to experience a bounce back season.
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