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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. This has potential to be a sneaky good pickup for the Pirates. Santana fell victim to baseball's second highest negative xWOBA/WOBA differential of -.044 points. His xWOBA of .352 places him in the 88th percentile in MLB. As a left handed hitter he was shifted virtually all the time at 98.3%, so he likely stands to benefit a lot from the upcoming shift ban. Finally, his new home stadium of PNC Park has potential to give him a boost to his home run totals, and his expected home runs in Pittsburgh is tied for the highest in MLB with bandbox Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
  2. You don't have to go that far back to see Mookie Betts traded away by the Red Sox when they couldn't get him inked to a long term deal. I certainly didn't agree with how they watered down the return by moving out Price at the same time though.
  3. It's a tricky decision to say the least. I'd eliminate Gallo immediately as I wouldn't be surprised if he's finished as a productive offensive performer and he shouldn't be played in center field. Each of Kiermaier and Bellinger have plenty of question marks. KK had hip surgery, and it remains to be seen how he bounces back from the surgery. With close to full return of previous speed KK is by far the best defender of the trio. Bellinger has more potential with the bat, but I'm not overly convinced he will ever get past what he's shown the past two seasons falling in the .280 xWOBA range.
  4. I wouldn't sign Gallo ahead of Bellinger or Kiermaier, but ultimately who to bring in would depend on what kind of money/term is required for the signing. If Kiermaier is attainable for significantly less than Bellinger he would be my choice.
  5. This will likely just make him even more neurotic.
  6. Baseball largely killed the home run ball when they both deadened the baseball and added humidors to all of the ballparks. 30-40 home runs is a much loftier target than it was even back in 2021. In 2021 there were 40 players who hit 30 home runs or more, and 5 players who topped 40 home runs. There were 12 players who managed to hit 38 home runs or more. Fast forward to 2022 and only 21 players eclipsed the 30 home run plateau, and only 3 were able to hit 40 or more. Only 4 players managed to hit the 38 home run mark. The days of guys like Justin Smoak going deep 38 times is likely a distant memory, at least until MLB decides to f*** around with the baseball yet again.
  7. Wait, are you actually suggesting that trading a top 5 MLB prospect is going to bring back a garbage return?
  8. I think that's the most logical starting point for him so he can continue to make full use of the player training complex.
  9. I like the amount of pitchers in the Jays top 10 at the moment. Danner is another arm that has potential to make an impact out of the pen as soon as 2023. I'm excited to see what Barriera can do as a professional. After a full offseason working in the development complex I suspect he is going to make a very loud debut.
  10. At least this year at the top there are a few real difference makers in Judge and Nimmo, next season's crop appears to have a ceiling of solid players only.
  11. Next year's outfield free agent crop is pretty bad if you are looking for a center field option. Outfield: Harrison Bader, Charlie Blackmon, Mark Canha (club option), Randal Grichuk, Ian Happ, Teoscar Hernández, Max Kepler (club option), Hunter Renfroe, Eddie Rosario (club option), Jorge Soler (opt-out), Michael A. Taylor, Jesse Winker
  12. Are you for real man? Jansen has put up a 124 WRC+ in the last two seasons and been worth 4.0 WAR in about a seasons worth of play for a starting catcher. Even you can surely recognize that when a player legitimately breaks out with the bat his previous output becomes far less important.
  13. I just don't think Conforto has the requisite footspeed to man center field other than in a pinch. Besides he hasn't played any center field since 2019, and even back then he was pretty poor out there.
  14. I think Teo was largely hampered on the bases and in the field by the multitude of foot injuries in 2022. I expect a bounce-back season in the 3-4 WAR range with a little better health.
  15. I think he's one of the best fits for this roster. He has a bit of the same question mark as Bellinger in how well he bounces back after the shoulder injury though, that's just such a potentially ruinous injury for a hitter to suffer. It's too bad he can't play center field in order to at least spell Springer from time to time. He checks some of the same boxes as Nimmo; - gets on base - less swing and miss than the bulk of the right handed sluggers on the roster - left handed hitter to balance out lineup - typically well above average hitter for most of his career - strong potential for 4+ WAR if he returns to previous form He would be a direct plug and play replacement for Teo, and likely not cost that much more given the recent injury history. Most likely he upgrades the defence in right field as well, although it remains to be seen how the shoulder injury and subsequent surgery affects his throwing arm.
  16. I find I just have very little confidence in Bellinger ever returning to much more than league average offensively, and even that would require a fair bit of improvement on his part. Maybe he's helped out by the upcoming shift ban a bit as he's been shifted against a ton for most of his career. If the team actually had any potential impact outfielders less than 2-3 years away I'd be fine with signing stopgap outfielders in the meantime, but given where they are in their competitive cycle that spending big dollars on more reclamation projects feels like a bit of a waste.
  17. That potential price just makes me want to forget about Bellinger and move onto a target with a little more certainty. If you can bring aboard Nimmo for $6-8 million more and potentially have an upside of 2-3x more WAR then you are far better off than spending that kind of money on a reclamation project.
  18. The Astros didn't dominate solely based on their run prevention, they were an extremely well balanced team. They were the AL's third highest scoring offense on top of their stellar pitching and defence.
  19. The Phillies came within a few games of winning a world series with baseball's 6th worst defence by DRS. The Jays by comparison were 8th best. By OAA the Jays were the 10th best defence. The Jays defence was nowhere near as bad as you are tying to claim.
  20. The likely 2+ win performance gap between Nimmo and the other non-Judge free agent outfield targets has me increasingly wishing for a Nimmo signing. This team is at the point where extra wins are becoming increasingly important. I have to assume that the front office would be factoring in potential extension costs for Vlad/Bo/Manoah etc. when making any more major free agent signings. I think that Barger can be a very important piece of the puzzle if he continues his offensive surge and forces his way onto the 26 man roster. His skillset sounds ready made for third base, so his continued development might allow the front office to let Chapman walk when he reaches free agency.
  21. Pearson has shown some very tantalizing glimpses at his potential when utilized as a reliever.
  22. I haven't heard any reports from people who saw him actually pitching live and in person, but Pearson's numbers from winter ball are very encouraging. 12 IP, 0.00 ERA, 16 k's, 5H, 4 BB all provide hope of him being able to help the 2023 IF he can finally stay healthy enough to provide some MLB innings.
  23. I can still easily talk myself into getting on board with a Nimmo signing though as he still has plenty to offer. Early projections have him at about 4.5 wins for 2023 so he represents a likely sizeable upgrade over Teoscar in overall value. Apparently Zips likes him enough to project an above average performance in year 5 as well so it seems unlikely he's going to face a severe aging curve. Of course the elephant in the room is the past lack of durability. This should be baked directly into his expected contract with lower offers coming in compared to a player with a less checkered injury history.
  24. These statistics are interesting, where can I find these? I'm interested to compare this against other notable relievers. Swanson appears to have pitched pretty well in the leverage situations that he did find himself utilized in. He pitched to a 0.92 FIP/2.29 xFIP in high leverage situations, with an inflated 5.20 ERA which looks to be largely influenced by a .409 BABIP.
  25. That's exactly the type of thing I take issue with as well. What happens on the field is ultimately what matters, I just don't see how fun loving guys *gasp* enjoying each others company and having fun is worth getting so upset about. When the team was in protracted slumps and losing a lot of games in short order it was easy to see the mood on the bench souring and a lot less of the upbeat nature. I don't understand why people seem to think the players should be acting like they are a funeral when the team is behind in the score.
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