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He's only logged about 77 professional innings so far. Maybe something in the range of 120 could be possible?

He had a broken arm and forearm flexor strain, these both seem pretty arm related to me.

Why in the world would Gurriel be playing right field? The majority of Conforto's major league innings have been played in right field, and the overwhelming majority of his outfield play since the start of 2019 has been out there as well.

I wouldn't have been particularly thrilled about either of these guys accepting the Jays offer either, so nothing lost, nothing gained.

Taijuan Walker just got paid $72 million in free agency. If you honestly think that a guy who had a much stronger platform season is going to sign somewhere to be a swingman then we are going to have to agree to disagree.

Rockies are the first team that comes to mind.

Not to mention that the guy also has a recurring heart issue. Being forced to work more quickly sounds like it could have a very dramatic effect on his effectiveness and maybe even overall health.

I'd say this is why Stripling was so valuable as a swingman. Those days are over though, with the money being thrown around in free agency and stellar season he just had I just can't see any way he's going to have to settle for being a swingman type any more.

Totally man, 1.7 WAR relievers are given away for free. And left handed power armed starting prospects aren't worth jack s*** either.

I question whether the prospect cost would ultimately be worth it. If it's true as suggested that the Pirates would have no interest in the Jays catchers it becomes very hard to envision a deal without either including Tiedemann or involving a third team. I've seen rumblings on the internet that Tiedemann could soon be baseball's best left handed starting prospect, and if he continues to dominate the minor leagues he will be arriving very soon. This guy is a keeper in my view.

I've seen article suggesting the concept of exponential offense, where essentially adding more good hitters to an already good lineup has the effect of leading to an offense that produces more than the sum of the parts suggests it should. https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-exponential-nature-of-offense/

I just think the Pirates expect a return based on Reynold's 2021 numbers, and expecting him to be able to repeat that type of performance seems very unlikely.

Is Reynolds really a star? He's had one season out of 4 where he managed to perform at that level.

I was thinking of that as well, deGrom is so damn good that he might actually provide a little "value" without pitching that many innings. On the other hand I wouldn't be surprised for him to suffer a career altering injury and not return with the same type of ultra elite stuff that he features presently.

It's said that in baseball the best predictor for future injury is prior injuries, particularly in the most recent season. So there's strike one against deGrom. He's in his mid 30's and this deal is paying an extremely injury probe pitcher until he's nearly 40. There's strike 2. When deGrom was able to remain healthy he wasn't averaging 99 MPH with his heater and featuring a 93 MPH slider. I just think there's a limit to what the human body can handle, and deGrom has likely pushed well beyond that limit in recent seasons. There's strike 3 for why I think this contract is more than likely to explode in the Rangers faces.

DeGrom is amazing but that contract is asinine. The guy will be lucky to crack 500 innings over the 5 years of the deal, there's just so much likely dead money in this deal. The Rangers said they were going to spend "stupid money" last offseason, and that's just continued.

Hip surgeons are likely cackling with glee at the sudden influx of patients.

Barger may very well end up knocking down the door in AAA as well.

He managed to avoid his arm falling off in winter ball so that's a start.

Is that actually true, or just a narrative that's not really backed up by his results? I don't think anybody has argued that Berrios is a true #1 starter/ace type pitcher, but rather he is more of a very good number 2 in a good season/#3 in a more average season. Below is a quick breakdown of his starts from 2019 and 2021, which are his best two seasons up to this point. For comparisons sake I've also included 2022 results. 2022 Season 0-3 FIP: 12 starts 3-4 FIP:7 starts 4-5 FIP: 3 starts 5-10 FIP: 3 starts 10+ FIP: 7 starts 2021 Season 0-3 FIP:15 starts 3-4 FIP:5 starts 4-5 FIP: 5 starts 5-10 FIP: 7 starts 10+ FIP: 0 starts 2019 Season 0-3 FIP: 11 starts 3-4 FIP: 7 starts 4-5 FIP: 7 starts 5-10 FIP: 6 starts 10+ FIP: 1 start I recall a troll who was ranting on about how Berrios would have 1 good start and then 2 bad starts (don't think it was you specifically connorp), but this certainly doesn't seem to be the case. In 2019 Berrios had 20 starts which looked legitimately good, with 5 more that were at least league average or so, and 7 poor starts. 2019 had 18 good starts, 7 average or so, 6 bad starts, and 1 disaster. Hopefully Berrios can regain the form he displayed in 2021, as there were far fewer disastrous starts that season.

Berrios had a very weird season where he performed a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde routine. He made a lot of very good/great starts, but then had a large number of disaster starts which really tanked his overall numbers. 0-3 FIP: 12 starts 3-4 FIP:7 starts 4-5 FIP: 3 starts 5-10 FIP: 3 starts 10+ FIP: 7 starts So Berrios pitched great in 12 of his 32 starts, very well in 7 starts, mediocre in 3 starts, very poorly in 3 starts, and had 7 absolute disaster starts. He gave his team a great chance to win in 19/32 starts (59%), kept them in the game at the very least in 22/32 starts (69%), and basically gave his team no shot to win in 10/32 of his starts (31%).

You did however claim this strikeout increase was the main factor. I just don't see how a 6% increase in k rate is going to lead to a 40 point drop in xBA. Grisham produced an xBA 62 points higher that 2022 back in 2020 with a k rate of only 3% lower than 2022, so quality and type of contact is key. At any rate I agree the Jays should aim higher when it comes to an outfield trade candidate. Jansen on his own isn't likely to bring back an exciting outfield replacement, but perhaps as part of a package deal something can be worked out.

Give the Biggio hate bit a rest. After he was called back up from AAA he produced a 107 WRC+, that sure as hell looks like an MLB hitter to me. He'll likely never hit for much of an average, but we'll get a clearer picture once the shift ban is in place in 2023. If/when MLB goes to an automatic strike zone Biggio stands to benefit tremendously from that as well.

Touche, you got me there. However I still think contact type is more to blame for the large drop in expected batting average for Grisham. He saw a 4% increase in ground ball rate, a stark decrease of 7.7% to his line drive rate (most likely contact type to fall in for hits), and a 5% increase in pull rate. For a left handed hitter who is heavily shifted this is definitely problematic, as more ground balls into the shift is correspondingly going to do a number on BA/xBA.

Expected batting average has nothing to do with k rate, it's only relevant for batted balls. It looks like somebody needs to brush up on his statistics. (For f***s sakes, turns out it was me who needs to brush up on statistics)