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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    Are you so dense that you think the only way to contribute value is with the bat? Grisham is an elite defender in center field (13 OAA/8 DRS) vs Tapia who is a buffoon in the outfield (-4 OAA/-4 DRS). Grisham also outproduced Tapia on the bases as well (5.8 BsR vs 2.0 for Tapia)
  2. max silver
    Just thought of that as well and edited the previous post to reflect that reality.
  3. max silver
    Because their catching tandem production was absolutely awful at 0.5 WAR. This is easily the biggest weakness on that team. That certainly creates issues in the outfield for them though as they stand to potentially lose Profar in free agency.
  4. max silver
    What would you actually be willing to trade Jansen for? You act as though he is basically untouchable. Keep in mind this is a player who has been injured so frequently he's only managed to appear in 142 games over the last two seasons. For comparisons sake George Springer, who takes far more s*** than Jansen for being injury prone, has still managed to appear in 211 games in the same span of time.
  5. max silver
    Bellinger has displayed a sub replacement level floor vs Grisham who has displayed a floor of about 2 WAR, so I'll give the victory to Grisham on that count. Bellinger's best seasons were produced with baseballs which were far livelier than the mushy cored crap that MLB used last season, and his plate discipline, walk numbers and k rates have all been trending in the wrong direction. I don't think he's likely to return to any more than league average with the bat without some drastic improvements.
  6. max silver
    You act like Grisham is a sub replacement level player, he's far from the worst the team could do when it comes to bringing in a player for center field. It's no given that he rebounds enough to meet his projections offensively, but he's projected for similar WAR value to Teoscar and comes with three years of remaining control. I wouldn't love a Jansen for Grisham swap by any means, but unlike Jansen Grisham has avoided the litany of injury issues and largely been available for his team. Jansen simply isn't going to bring in a blue chip prospect or elite major league piece, he simply doesn't have the track record of performance, has a very spotty injury history, and only has two years of remaining team control. You need to lower your expectations to something more realistic when it comes to a trade return for Jansen.
  7. max silver
    This has potential to be a sneaky good pickup for the Pirates. Santana fell victim to baseball's second highest negative xWOBA/WOBA differential of -.044 points. His xWOBA of .352 places him in the 88th percentile in MLB. As a left handed hitter he was shifted virtually all the time at 98.3%, so he likely stands to benefit a lot from the upcoming shift ban. Finally, his new home stadium of PNC Park has potential to give him a boost to his home run totals, and his expected home runs in Pittsburgh is tied for the highest in MLB with bandbox Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
  8. max silver
    You don't have to go that far back to see Mookie Betts traded away by the Red Sox when they couldn't get him inked to a long term deal. I certainly didn't agree with how they watered down the return by moving out Price at the same time though.
  9. max silver
    It's a tricky decision to say the least. I'd eliminate Gallo immediately as I wouldn't be surprised if he's finished as a productive offensive performer and he shouldn't be played in center field. Each of Kiermaier and Bellinger have plenty of question marks. KK had hip surgery, and it remains to be seen how he bounces back from the surgery. With close to full return of previous speed KK is by far the best defender of the trio. Bellinger has more potential with the bat, but I'm not overly convinced he will ever get past what he's shown the past two seasons falling in the .280 xWOBA range.
  10. max silver
    I wouldn't sign Gallo ahead of Bellinger or Kiermaier, but ultimately who to bring in would depend on what kind of money/term is required for the signing. If Kiermaier is attainable for significantly less than Bellinger he would be my choice.
  11. max silver
    This will likely just make him even more neurotic.
  12. max silver
    Baseball largely killed the home run ball when they both deadened the baseball and added humidors to all of the ballparks. 30-40 home runs is a much loftier target than it was even back in 2021. In 2021 there were 40 players who hit 30 home runs or more, and 5 players who topped 40 home runs. There were 12 players who managed to hit 38 home runs or more. Fast forward to 2022 and only 21 players eclipsed the 30 home run plateau, and only 3 were able to hit 40 or more. Only 4 players managed to hit the 38 home run mark. The days of guys like Justin Smoak going deep 38 times is likely a distant memory, at least until MLB decides to f*** around with the baseball yet again.
  13. max silver
    Wait, are you actually suggesting that trading a top 5 MLB prospect is going to bring back a garbage return?
  14. max silver
    I think that's the most logical starting point for him so he can continue to make full use of the player training complex.
  15. max silver
    I like the amount of pitchers in the Jays top 10 at the moment. Danner is another arm that has potential to make an impact out of the pen as soon as 2023. I'm excited to see what Barriera can do as a professional. After a full offseason working in the development complex I suspect he is going to make a very loud debut.
  16. max silver
    At least this year at the top there are a few real difference makers in Judge and Nimmo, next season's crop appears to have a ceiling of solid players only.
  17. max silver
    Next year's outfield free agent crop is pretty bad if you are looking for a center field option. Outfield: Harrison Bader, Charlie Blackmon, Mark Canha (club option), Randal Grichuk, Ian Happ, Teoscar Hernández, Max Kepler (club option), Hunter Renfroe, Eddie Rosario (club option), Jorge Soler (opt-out), Michael A. Taylor, Jesse Winker
  18. max silver
    Are you for real man? Jansen has put up a 124 WRC+ in the last two seasons and been worth 4.0 WAR in about a seasons worth of play for a starting catcher. Even you can surely recognize that when a player legitimately breaks out with the bat his previous output becomes far less important.
  19. max silver
    I just don't think Conforto has the requisite footspeed to man center field other than in a pinch. Besides he hasn't played any center field since 2019, and even back then he was pretty poor out there.
  20. max silver
    I think Teo was largely hampered on the bases and in the field by the multitude of foot injuries in 2022. I expect a bounce-back season in the 3-4 WAR range with a little better health.
  21. max silver
    I think he's one of the best fits for this roster. He has a bit of the same question mark as Bellinger in how well he bounces back after the shoulder injury though, that's just such a potentially ruinous injury for a hitter to suffer. It's too bad he can't play center field in order to at least spell Springer from time to time. He checks some of the same boxes as Nimmo; - gets on base - less swing and miss than the bulk of the right handed sluggers on the roster - left handed hitter to balance out lineup - typically well above average hitter for most of his career - strong potential for 4+ WAR if he returns to previous form He would be a direct plug and play replacement for Teo, and likely not cost that much more given the recent injury history. Most likely he upgrades the defence in right field as well, although it remains to be seen how the shoulder injury and subsequent surgery affects his throwing arm.
  22. max silver
    I find I just have very little confidence in Bellinger ever returning to much more than league average offensively, and even that would require a fair bit of improvement on his part. Maybe he's helped out by the upcoming shift ban a bit as he's been shifted against a ton for most of his career. If the team actually had any potential impact outfielders less than 2-3 years away I'd be fine with signing stopgap outfielders in the meantime, but given where they are in their competitive cycle that spending big dollars on more reclamation projects feels like a bit of a waste.
  23. max silver
    That potential price just makes me want to forget about Bellinger and move onto a target with a little more certainty. If you can bring aboard Nimmo for $6-8 million more and potentially have an upside of 2-3x more WAR then you are far better off than spending that kind of money on a reclamation project.
  24. max silver
    The Astros didn't dominate solely based on their run prevention, they were an extremely well balanced team. They were the AL's third highest scoring offense on top of their stellar pitching and defence.
  25. max silver
    The Phillies came within a few games of winning a world series with baseball's 6th worst defence by DRS. The Jays by comparison were 8th best. By OAA the Jays were the 10th best defence. The Jays defence was nowhere near as bad as you are tying to claim.
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