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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    I wouldn't necessarily choose Jansen over Kirk, however preferring Jansen is hardly indefensible. Starting from 2021 when Kirk became more of a regular Jansen has actually outproduced Kirk in overall value on a rate basis. Jansen comes in at 3.96 FWAR/550 vs Kirk at 3.17 FWAR/550. Jansen has had a hard time staying on the field, but when on the field he played like a 4.5-5 WAR player in 2022, and sustained this type of production despite having a lot of starts and stops due to making several trips to the injured list. I think it's up in the air what kind of offensive player he eventually settles in as, but I don't think the power surge over the second half of 2021 and entire season in 2022 is some kind of fluke.
  2. max silver
    His sprint speed has been slowly declining since peaking at 28.4 ft/second in 2021. He's down to an average of 27.9 ft/second so far this season. I just have a hard time seeing him continuing to be an elite center field defender if this trend continues.
  3. max silver
    I don't think the bolded is really true. In 2021 Kirk hit 8 homeruns with a .194 ISO in only 189 plate appearances.
  4. max silver
    Kirk has displayed power in MLB already, whereas Moreno hasn't shown any power since a short stint in AA several years ago. Over Moreno's last two seasons in a combined 442 AAA/MLB plate appearances he's produced all of a combined 27 extra base hits (22 2B/5 HR). It's far from a given this is going to improve dramatically over time.
  5. max silver
    That's kind of a weird shot at Bassitt who has pitched really damn well after his first start of the season meltdown. I wouldn't argue that Eovoldi offers ace like upside when he manages to stay healthy and pitch at peak effectiveness, but this hasn't been something he's been able to accomplish for most of his career.
  6. max silver
    I think Kirk has simply been in a bit of a slump timing wise this season. Over his career (including his early season struggles) he's averaged over 44% hard hit rate/90.5 MPH exit velocity, whereas this season these have both dropped precipitously to 34%/85.9 MPH with a corresponding increase in ground balls. Once he hits his stride he's fully set up for a massive surge in production given the great swing decisions and walk rate, as he's kept his head well above water offensively almost solely based on walk rate so far.
  7. max silver
    Oops looks like it's me that missed that point. Still interesting discussion but that certainly removes any concerns over Jays performance in AA. Good catch on your part/poor reading comprehension on my part.
  8. max silver
    Kirk still manages to be an above average offensive contributor despite the lack of power given his elite bat to ball skills and strike zone awareness. Historically he has hit the ball a lot harder than his last half season or thereabouts so hopefully he will start squaring up baseballs more frequently as there is decent raw power hiding in his sizeable frame. I don't think it's a slam dunk that Moreno is going to be better for the next few years given the fact that Moreno doesn't appear to be a great defender yet aside from his throwing skills, both his blocking and receiving/framing appear to need some improvement.
  9. max silver
    Theoretically higher spin rates on 4 seamers would make it harder to make solid contact on pitches up in the zone and increase the likelihood of getting under the baseball. This is certainly an ongoing issue with Orelvis though which is unfortunately only becoming worse over time.
  10. max silver
    Something I don't recall seeing discussed here is how AA is using a pre-tacked baseball this season. This makes it much harder to properly evaluate both hitter and pitcher performance from this league as this baseball has had a noticeable effect increasing spin rates for the pitchers. I wonder if this could be factoring in to Kloffenstein's resurgence and Orelvis Martinez's struggles this season (one could only hope). https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-enhanced-grip-baseball-raising-concerns-strikeouts-in-double-a-southern-league/
  11. max silver
    Little reverse jinx going on here, I like it.
  12. max silver
    If Horwitz can at least play a passable outfield I think he could eventually be a potential Biggio replacement. The team still has both of Espinal and Merrifield to cover second base, and Biggio has been given the occasional start at first base which Horwitz could receive instead. Horwitz is on a massive heater with .411/.521/1.110 189 WRC+ over his last few weeks with a matching 19.7% k/bb rate. I think he could potentially provide an offensive spark from the bottom of the lineup to a team that's largely struggled to consistently produce offense from the bottom third.
  13. max silver
    I see next to no chance that the Pirates would have made that deal. They already had a great catching prospect of their own and were also asking for the moon in Reynolds trade talks.
  14. max silver
    I just don't know how many years Varsho will be able to effectively man center field as he appears to be slowly losing speed over time, and he wasn't really a burner to start with. He seems to have great instincts/get great jumps though so at least that part of his game should age a little more gracefully.
  15. max silver
    Yeah Belt looked like he should retire after his first six games, but he's bounced back and been pretty damn good since then. His last 16 games he's produced a 154 WRC+ backed up by pretty decent peripherals/exit velocity, save for his still too high 35.5% k rate.
  16. max silver
    His defense has actually been pretty solid for most of this season, he just chose a rather unfortunate time to airmail a throw to first base.
  17. max silver
    Yeah useless sack of s*** is only on pace for a 7.8 FWAR season. Can't have useless scrubs like that on your team.
  18. max silver
    I'd rather Manoah just continue to work on things at the major league level. Despite the ugly numbers he's mostly kept the team in the games he's started and mostly avoided total blow out games. I have little confidence that White would be able to perform any better than Manoah, and given how many times each member of the rotation has experienced terrible starts I think White would be far better utilized as a proper long man to alleviate some of the stress these poor starts have been placing on the bullpen.
  19. max silver
    Yeah I'm not buying the pitch clock theory either. You can tell right from the first few pitches of the game when Manoah is going to be struggling with his command for the game. If the pitch clock were such an issue Manoah's command would improve with runners on base, as he would gain an extra 5 seconds of time between pitches. His results get markedly worse when he has runners on base vs when the bases are empty, so the extra rest time is seemingly having no effect on improving the quality of his pitches. His numbers second time through the order are actually better off than first time through the order. If he was struggling primarily because his conditioning is not allowing him to repeat his delivery/locate his pitches, you would expect that his fatigue would be accumulating as the game continues and he would perform worse over time.
  20. max silver
    Romero had chronically bad knees which derailed his career. We can only hope something of this sort isn't behind Manoah's struggles.
  21. max silver
    In a rare occurrence I completely agree with Jonn on something. Atkins is on record stating that the Diamondbacks specifically asked for Gurriel to complete the deal. It's really odd that they would have insisted on a defensively challenged streak hitter, but they must have really wanted a right handed hitting outfielder to balance out their left handed complement they already had.
  22. max silver
    The 80 grade stache is what matters most.
  23. max silver
    I think that guys can certainly put on 10-15 pounds of lean body weight in 6 months. Each pound of actual muscle gained also leads to a large increase in intracellular water as well, which technically also counts as lean body weight.
  24. max silver
    It simply isn't believable. It's very uncommon for a third baseman to have 6 or 7 fielding plays in one game to start with. I realize that MLB and Milb batted balls tendencies would be different, but lets utilize an elite third baseman known for good range in Matt Chapman. His range would allow him to get to a ton of batted balls and hence would receive a lot of fielding opportunities. In a typical season Statcast has him credited for around 530 attempts at the ball. Assuming he started 150 games this is 3.5 attempts per game. To imagine that a third baseman that you are talking s*** about just so happened to receive 6 or 7 fielding (or maybe even more) fielding chances in a game you just happened to be watching, and then proceeded to spike 6 or 7 throws across the diamond is really hard to believe. If you had kept things more reasonable and said you saw him spike several throws across the diamond this would be reasonable and hence much easier to believe.
  25. max silver
    This could easily change if Bo catches a case of the yips again, but I still maintain that he looks like he's improved a massive amount defensively so far this season. Earlier in the year he was sitting -2 OAA, and through steady play over the last few weeks he's managed to bring this up to an even 0 OAA. The last two years he's ended up at -5 and -7 OAA respectively, so if he can manage to bring this to around even that's a very big change. Last season he ended up at -16 DRS, and he's sitting at +2 right now. I do wonder how much of his poor metrics were affected by the amount of shifting the team employed last season, as a good chunk of the time he was starting on the second base side of the diamond.
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