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That's a giant "if" though, I would rather the team hedge their bets and bring in another bat so in the case that 2022 Vlad is what we can expect moving forward then the offence hasn't taken a huge hit.

The team presently only has 3 legitimate outfield options for 2023, and Kiermaier is likely to receive 4th outfielder level playing time at most given his propensity for injury. I don't think lack of opportunity for playing time should be a huge concern for free agents at this point unless the team trades for another outfielder first.

He played in the Puerto Rican winter league. His numbers are very strong although the quality of opposition is certainly in question. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=franci000bow

If he bounces back he'll end up opting out after year 5.

Cueto did a pretty good job suppressing hard contact and missing barrels despite the complete lack of whiffs. His expected home runs total don't really take a dramatic jump in most ballparks save Texas and Milwaukee so some of his success may translate to other ballparks. His quality of competition wasn't great as you've mentioned, a look at his game log shows a lot of outings against the likes of the Royals, Twins, Athletics, Rangers etc. and not much in the way of higher quality opposition so it's natural to wonder how he would fare against tougher quality of opposition. Some of that concern could be mitigated due to the more balanced schedule MLB is finally implementing, so he wouldn't regularly be facing the juggernaut opponents in the AL East.

Any word on potential salary range for Cueto? It seems that even a season or two ago before this years insanity back of the rotation starters were earning in the range of $10 million, so Cueto may actually cost real money to sign.

It's probably a little early for the obligatory Sportsnet.ca best shape of his life articles.

Arod was likely taking every available PED known to man so he's not the best example of a player who defied father time.

We don't have a lot of available data points yet but the early returns don't show Moreno as somebody who has the necessary athleticism to play in the outfield. His average sprint speed has been pretty pedestrian at 27.4 feet per second. He does have 1 bolt to his credit where he managed to hit 30 feet per second so maybe he's ultimately faster on the high end than the average sprint speed would suggest. I'm reasonably happy with the bullpen where it stands and think that the outfield is a much higher priority at this point. There are some interesting potential reinforcements working their way up through the minor leagues for a change so the team won't be running out a motley collection of sub replacement shitballers unless there is a severe rash of injuries.

I think this shows how quickly the Jays are approaching their available budget limit. Stripling is likely to be a bargain at the rate he signed for, but the team still needs to add another outfielder if they intend to avoid running a collection of utility players in the outfield on a regular basis. In the event that both Springer and Kiermaier are out due to injury the outfield suddenly starts looking incredibly weak. They also need to be mindful of leaving room for mid-season additions as well if holes in need of patching become apparent once the season is underway.

Replace probably with absolutely or definitely and this post will be a lot more accurate. But the Jays have a veritable smorgasbord of players who can reliably man second base and have that as their primary position, vs only two who have played short stop at the major league level for any amount of time. Move Bo to short and having Merrifield/Biggio/Lopez on the roster becomes pretty redundant as they aren't going to receive any playing time at their best defensive spot on the diamond. This could open up some trade avenues but none of these players would have much in the way of trade value anyway.

I used to think Atkins was overly risk averse, but then he made signings like Kirby Yates and Yusei Kikuchi and that impression went right out the window.

You sounds like a used car salesman. The truth is not all cars are built with the same kind of reliability, and not all baseball players come with bodies with the same kind of durability. You can reliably predict that players like Kevin Kiermaier are going to suffer some sort of injury during a season which forces them to miss time so it is indeed possible to predict injury in certain players. Jansen has made 3 separate trips to the injured list in the last two seasons due to soft tissue injuries. It's been said that in baseball the best predictor of future injury is prior injuries, particularly in the most recent season. Jansen has far from a spotless injury history and is the oldest of the three, so I'll go ahead and predict he is the most likely of the three to miss time due to injury.

A Jansen/Kirk duo more than likely has the highest offensive output, but in the case of an inevitable Jansen injury you are left with the likes of Collins level players starting behind the plate half of the time as the team doesn't let Kirk start more than 3-4 times per week.

Considering this decade isn't even 30% over yet I won't put too much stock into looking back to the beginning of it. Bellinger and Kiermaier have similar realistic floors (Bellinger isn't likely as bad as his 2021 numbers look as he produced a .237 WOBA compared to a .281 xWOBA), and projection systems view them as producing value at a similar rate based on overall playing time. Kiermaier is the more affordable option but Bellinger still has a non zero chance of rediscovering some of his prior offensive mojo. It's far from a given who will turn out to be the better signing at this point. If Bellinger didn't end up receiving a crazy offer from the Cubs I would have been absolutely fine with Bellinger due to potential upside but the Jays operate under a tight budget so they can't be throwing money out the door on a ton of risky upside plays. At any rate if they do decide to go this route I'd much rather see them gamble on a Conforto signing as he's been an above average major league outfielder much more recently than Bellinger and feels a lot more likely to experience a bounce back season.

Stripling would accepted a qualifying offer in a heartbeat. It's obvious how MLB values him given the contract he just signed, so overpaying him by $7.5 million would have been a huge mistake.

Maybe there needs to be a designation for a 2 and a half times through the order pitcher to fully appreciate pitchers like Stripling.

I pulled this from another post as it's relevant here. Later in the season the ropes were taken off of Stripling and he became more than a twice through the order pitcher. He pitched a minimum of 6 innings in 7 of his last 9 starts, facing an average of 22 batters during these outings. Whether he can repeat his 2022 performance is far from a given but his new changeup was a game changer for him.

Later in the season the ropes were taken off of Stripling and he became more than a twice through the order pitcher. He pitched a minimum of 6 innings in 7 of his last 9 starts, facing an average of 22 batters during these outings.

The Giants may have found themselves an absolute bargain with this deal. If Stripling performs anywhere close to his 2022 levels he'll be in line for a nice payday next offseason.

Time will tell if the bat plays sufficiently to man a position like third base. Moreno obviously hasn't had a lot of MLB at bats so far but up to this point he performed like Santiago Espinal with less power. There is no guarantee that the power fully returns to anywhere near the level he produced in AA in 2021 and he's basically been a slap hitter since then.

It seems as though the front office may have overplayed their hand a little bit. Atkins stated that the Jays value their catchers more than the opposition does and perhaps their asking prices are set a little too high accordingly. I certainly wouldn't want them settling a subpar offer ala Oakland though so I'll just try to remain patient. I'm not particularly enthused about the idea of Moreno acting as a super utility player as he shows so much potential as a catcher. He has plenty of things he needs to smooth out behind the plate that I don't want him spending a lot of time and energy learning new positions. Rostering three catchers just doesn't leave a ton of time for Moreno and Kirk to work behind the plate in order to continue to develop their skills.

If Bellinger can rediscover his stroke he can end up as more than twice the player of Kiermaier. I just didn't think it was worth spending $17.5 million to find out.

It seems like possible trade partners are dwindling pretty rapidly. Pittsburgh signed Heinemann as a stop gap, Cleveland brought in Zunino, St. Louis signed Contreras, and Minnesota signed Vazquez. It's starting to look like Houston or bust as far as potential contender fits for Jansen.

You are aware there is more to successful pitching than inducing whiffs right?