Part of the process of creating projections look at past history. It’s not as simple as just taking last year’s performance and extrapolating it.
JD projects to 6WAR and if he’s fit for the majority of the season that’s conservative. Turner at the time of his contract had gone from 3 to 4 to 5 WAR in consecutive seasons from nothing. He’d have been projected for around 4 WAR, i.e. 50% less than JD.
Turner possibly is the best comparison, but he’s not on the same level so if anything that’s helps JD ask for more.
Could see JD getting a front loaded contract at $30m for the first few years, with an opt out.