There's a good possibility that Vlad already values himself as if he the repeated 2021 season for the past 3 years (man it would be great to know the truth).
If he does repeat 2021/2024 again, than yes, his valuation may climb. Maybe that's what the Jays need to see to commit the extra money. They'll certainly have more competition at that point, but you really can't afford to "miss" on some 10-12 year $450M deal. More information helps Toronto (and others).
If he isn't as good this year - let's say he repeats 2022, then he's humbled a bit and there's still a chance he resigns with the Jays, or perhaps he was never worth that type of mega deal and he leaves for a comp pick. If he's not a "special" hitter worth a mega deal, then he's a lot more replaceable and the only "miss" we have is what he would have fetched via trade early this offseason. Of course the Jays and the FO seemed fully committed to competing in 2025, so that was probably never a real option anyway (whether you like it or not - and I do not).