Brownie19

Is making the playoffs 3 times in the last 4 years (while missing the 1 year by 1 win) impressive? Yes, I think it is. I've been a Jays fan since 92/93 and have watched them miss the playoffs in 24 of 26 seasons, prior to this recent run from 2020-2023. You can undersell the wild card all you want, but you just need to get in. Honest question - do people downplay the wild card teams in the NFL? I don't think they do like some dismiss it here. Technicality, but the team has been to the playoffs 4 times under Atkins (you're forgetting 2016) and nobody in their right mind expected them to compete in 2017-2019 given the team they inherited. The f***ing guy is 1-2 wins away from making the playoffs in every single season you could reasonably expect them to - yet people want him fired. It's a joke. I also think it's unfair to discount 2020 - it's not like Ross has any control over that. The team made it, end of story.

Why wouldn't you expect him to do the corporate robot talk on a podcast?

good catch - not that he's been a stud either...but better than most his peers from the draft indeed.

It seems likely the team will contend for a playoff spot this year and next, which will make it 5 years in a row (after they had to rebuild/retool from 2017-2019). Even if they have to blow it up after that, Rogers may see that as significantly better than the ONE playoff team that AA provided (partial marks for the 2016 team - but he wasn't the GM that season). The issue has obviously been playoff wins, which I do believe involve a lot of luck/circumstances. Teams like the Braves/Dodgers - GREAT teams lose in the first round every year and we often do see teams like the Diamondbacks win a series or 2 every year. If the Jays won a couple of rounds in 2021/2022 (when they were legit a good team) and a round or 2 in either 2020 or 2023 (when they weren't as good) - I don't think people would complain about Atkins NEARLY as much. The hate for him is primarily based on playoff results. The Blue Jays probability of winning the WC series has been as follows: 2020 - 33% 2022 - 57% 2023 - 56% In 2021, we were beat out by the Red Sox, who beat the Yanks in the WC game and then had a 49% chance of beating the 100 win Rays in the ALDS. 100 win team v. 92 win team in the playoffs was a coin flip. In 2022, we were tied with the Mets as the highest probability of winning their WC series and last year were only a few % points behind the Phillies (59%). The Rangers and Diamondbacks only had a 43% of winning their WC series last year - and both teams went to the World Series. I was just f***ing around on Fangraphs and the HIGHEST probability of winning an ALDS I found was like 62% - which was the Dodgers v. Diamondbacks last year and of course the Diamondbacks won that. The playoffs are a crapshoot! Blaming the GM primarily for playoff results isn't a great idea. The Diamondbacks GM isn't better than Atkins simply because they won 3 playoff series last year.

I has a look at that draft - I was going to do the "man - if only we took Player X", but f*** me, what a brutal draft. 1st Round Mize Bart Bohm Madrigal India Kelenic Weathers Carter Stewart (didn't sign) Kyler Murray Travis Swaggerty Grayson Rodriquez Groshans Connor Scott Logan Gilbert Winn Laberatore Jordyn Adams Brady Singer Nolan Gorman Trevor Larnach Turang Ryan Rolison Anthony Seigler Nico Noerner Matt McLain (didn't sign) Triston Casas Mason Denaburg Seth Beer Bo Naylor JT Ginn (didn't sign) Like 5 good players in the 1st round. After that, the only guys I see are: McClanahan Cal Raleigh Jeremy Pena Kyle Bradish Taj Bradley? Steven Kwan Joe Ryan Brendan Donovan Outman Nootbaar Skubal O'Hoppe There's like 17-20 ball players in the entire draft. I don't do this type of look into drafts often, but this seems awful.

That is a fantastic trend. Time to break that "tough guy" mentality in hockey.

If only 3-4 teams in the AL make the playoffs each year, you may need to pour more resources ($, prospects) into the team when you see the opportunity. This will likely impact your ability to contend in future seasons, over a longer period. If 6 teams make the playoffs in the AL, it gives you more wiggle room to retain your resources, while still making the playoffs. Theoretically, this will give you a better chance to be a consistent playoff contender over a longer period. Smaller window v. larger window. It certainly appears this is a strategy of Atkins/Shapiro. I suspect their goal is to make it into the playoffs as often as possible. This may be the strategy because they believe the teams that make the playoffs all have a relatively similar chance of winning the World Series (the best teams don't always win, teams get "hot" at different times, etc.) - and/or - this could simply be a strategy that Rogers supports and wants. I believe Rogers actually held Atkins/Shapiro back from accelerating the rebuild in 2017-2019 - which would be some antidotal evidence they want a competitive team on the field as often as possible and don't want peaks and valleys. As noted, the FO resisted the urge to "go for it" in 2021, which was probably the best team under Atkins/Shapiro - and that backfired, we didn't perform and missed the playoffs by a game. But, that decision to hold the line may give us a better chance of making the playoffs in 2024, 2025 and 2026, instead of having to rebuild/retool by now. Atkins/Shapiro/Rogers may all look at that as the preferred approach. This approach is contrary to what AA did in 2015, where he "pushed all in" for a short 2 year window, followed by 3 years of rebuilding/retooling. That strategy gave us some very exciting times - but it didn't bring a title either. All strategies have pro's and con's. Attendance and TV ratings in 2015/16 would also be impacted by the fact the team hadn't been in the playoffs since 1993. Hope that helps.

Bingo.

But there are expanded playoffs. Ever consider they may take a different approach if only 4 teams in the AL made the playoffs?

We've been through this. First, I don't think a lot of people hated AA. He was criticized by Shapiro and I think a lot of fans cringed at the 2013 Marlins trade. In the end, he created a 2 year window. The Jays are positioned for their 4th straight year of contending, while it's plausible to see a 5th (without squinting too much). No - there haven't been division titles, or a "big push" to try harder to win it all. Seems they believe your chances of winning the WS don't change dramatically whether you win 105 games and take the division, or finish with 91 and play in a wild card game (I believe the numbers support this). And yes - we've had no f***ing luck in the playoffs at all, which is all any hater will point to. Ross isn't a HOF GM, but he's probably in the Top 10. f*** - Imagine being the Mets, Padres or Angels.

I mean - I can give you my guess, but it's really a crap shoot. I think one of Horwitz, Orelvis, Schneider and Barger will be a starter for a good team, one will be a starter for a crappy team, one will be a good platoon/bench player and one will become a AAAA player. If I were to guess, I'd say Orelvis will be the starter on a good team, Schneider the starter on a crappy team, Barger will be the good platoon/bench player and Horwitz will bust.

Are you asking me? I mean I can give you my guesses (as can others) but that's pretty irrelevant. I think the good news is that we are starting to get a glut of prospects who are producing well in AA/AAA - which drastically increases the likelihood that some of them become ML players. This team really does need some young, cheap, controllable talent to come in and contribute. This will reduce the risk that we "hit" on FA signings every offseason, which isn't a sustainable approach. I mean - we just saw Texas win the World Series while doing this. They rolled with guys like Leody Taveras, Ezequiel Duran and were rewarded for bringing up Evan Carter super early, who went on a crazy hot streak. They handed Josh Jung the reigns (who was a good prospect - yet unproven - coming off a terrible debut and AAA season in 2022). They filled a few of their starting positions with younger fringy prospect guys - guys who wouldn't start on some/most teams in the majors. Like every strategy - there is risk and a probability of failure. I think we're kind of out of money to spend on difference makers. I'm not sure signing fringy FA's like Kike Hernandez and Brian Anderson is worth blocking Barger though.

Bingo. Massive spending on guys like Snell/Belly/Chapman would have pushed us into a bad luxury tax position and was likely never an option (Ohtani was a completely different story). If we're not in a position at the trade deadline, that probably means that we've run into a ton of injuries and/or our top core players simply haven't performed again this year and we're up shits creek anyway. Now that said, I'd love to think we like our prospects enough to move Espinal and say Garcia (who could be replaced by Barger, Jimenez, Orelvis, Cooke, Pearson, Brock, Zulueta, Danner) to free up enough $$$ to sign one more impact bat (assuming one is available for like $12M). Perhaps we believe in Schneider, Horwitz, Barger, Orelvis, etc. a lot and don't see the remaining guys as upgrades. A lot of people complain about the FO's ability to develop players - hard to develop them if you never give them a shot at the ML level.

Sorry Spanky - but that one was an in-season hat from last year. This was the 2023 spring training hat. You're correct though that they went away from the maple leaf last year finally. https://sportscloset.ca/product/mens-mlb-toronto-blue-jays-new-era-2023-spring-training-authentic-collection-59fifty-fitted-hat-royal/

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2838156/ranking-the-2024-mlb-spring-training-hats Look at the new Spring Training hats. I like the Jays one (as does the score) and may need to pick one up. Thank god we've finally moved away from a maple leaf on a hat.

I suspect the probability of Vlad being a 4 WAR+ player this year are over 50%. There's probably an 85% chance he's above 3 WAR.

The Jays were 14th in runs scored last year (7th in wRC+). You act like we were 25th. A simply return to a normal batting average with RISP would probably push us into the Top 10 in runs scored - even if there was little to no improvement from our core players. Minor bounce back seasons by Vlad, Springer, Kirk and Varsho and/or some breakouts by our prospects (Schneider, Horwitz, Barger, Orelvis) would help offset any other declines we may see (Turner, KK, Springer) and the loss of Chapman. Large bounce back seasons from those hitters and/or major breakouts for a prospect or 2 and we're probably a Top 5 offense. I can appreciate what you're saying about the starters, but we do have more pitching depth this year than I can remember. A rebound season from Manoah alone would go a long way to covering any regression or injuries in the rotation. We also have Yariel Rodriguez, White, Francis, Ricky T and Chad Dallas to turn to if Manoah is finished and/or we have injuries. Now of course of Manoah is finished and 2 of our other starters need TJ surgery, we're f***ed - but so would almost every other team in baseball.

1. Perhaps he doesn't feel as though that's true (or has been told it's not true); 2. Either way, the goal is to maximize the # of wins - not maximize the offense. You may think the offense is what needs to be fixed, but I doubt you felt our offense was a major concern heading into last year. It turns out us fans are wrong pretty often.

You understand why that is right? Because all projection systems suggest they will. I would hope everyone would want a FO that looks at projections, instead of saying "well they sucked last year, so we should expect the same from them this year" - just the same as they shouldn't say "well that player was great for us last year, so let's blindly assume he'll be great for us this year". And to be fair, the FO did add Yariel Rodriguez to add to our SPing depth (to go along with some of our prospects being a year older and more ready to contribute).

There are going to be a lot of solid players who have to settle for minor league contracts with an invite to STing. I suspect we'll try and nab a few of them to give us options. Schneider in LF with Espinal at 2nd base may also be an option v. LHP. Biggio also hits LHP about as well as he does RHP - so he could play LF also.

I don't think any RP should be considered a generational talent. Randy and Pedro both meet my criteria. I don't consider Ichiro to be generational. I think people overrate those 'pure hitters' like Gywnn and Ichiro (add Rose in there if you want too). I appreciate guys who can hit .350 and rack up 200+ hits year - but neither of them should EVER be discussed as "one of the greatest hitters of all time". Gwynn's career high season was a 154 wRC+, Ichiro's was 131. Even someone like Jeff Bagwell was a SIGNIFICANTLY better hitter than both these slap hitters and nobody ever talks about Bagwell being one of the best hitters of all time.

Oh f*** yeah. Duh. Can't overlook the GOAT.

I'm curious how you're leaving Griffey and A-Rod off this list. A-Rod had 6 seasons over 9 WAR.

I think most reports even question if he can play 2nd defensively at the ML level. No idea how someone goes from playing SS 2-3 years ago to being unplayable on the infield. Impressive work.

100% those 3 are generational. I don't put Harden on that pedestal, but I think Joker is right there. Emiid needs more seasons. Westbrook is close (like Harden)