Brownie19

ouch.

You didn't need to explain it bud. This wasn't the Phillies paying Schwarber $20M a year for his offense. The Reds must have higher internal projections for Candelario (or they're really stupid) - but he's obviously not some proven offensive star. Same can be said for Gurriel, who's been just a hair over league average with the bat for 3 years now. I'd be curious to know how many other teams were even in on Candelario or Gurriel anywhere near the 3 years / $45M range. While I do generally agree that teams pay more for offense. Defense does seems to be somewhat undervalued. Maybe there are good reasons for this, maybe teams just don't trust defensive stats/projections. That said, teams aren't exactly lining up for pure Schwarber type offense. JDM is still unsigned, Garver only got $24M for 2 years, Teo only gets a 1 year deal, etc. I think teams are a lot less willing to give out long/large deals to pure offense, no defense guys. Doubtful that guys like Nick Castellanos get 5 years $100M anymore.

I just ask your mom to fill in while I type. Never seen anyone gobble up a shaft like that before. Mighty find cock sucking genes you have in the family.

Yeah - JD Davis still interests me. If you could get him for Espy, I'd do that in a heartbeat. The more options we have of guys who could have "good" offensive seasons the better. He very well could run into a 120 wRC+ season. That said, I wouldn't be eager to move Garcia for him.

If this happens, we may need to organize a BJMB Falafel Dinner night like we did the one year with the pizza night...

wambulance! Fantastic stuff.

Except Candelario projects to be a 101 wRC+ bat. The Reds didn't exactly pay a premium for offense.

He was pretty emphatic that the Dodgers do NOT want Belly.

I'm aware that Heyward was great last year - after initially wanting to retire after 2 horrendous years in 2021 and 2022. It was cool to see him have so much success. But, he only projects for 0.8 WAR this year and has a history of following up a good/great year with an absolute stinker. At 34, his baserunning and defense are declining (which was how he provided value when his bat went to s***). If the Jays should have waited out Chapman and not signed IKF/Turner so early, then it's fair to say the Dodgers should have done the same with Teo and Heyward. $32M for guys that project to give them 2.5 WAR isn't very sexy. Point is - even good GM's / Organizations are never going to be perfect in reading the market and optimizing value. CD will come tell me that 100% the Dodgers didn't want Belly. Not sure how he knows that, but maybe it's true, just like it may be true that Chapman told the Jays he wasn't re-signing with them early in the FA period, which explains why Atkins shifted gears. There are all kinds of factors involved in decisions, trades, signings, etc. that we aren't privy to. I choose to be optimistic that Atkins is making good decisions with the information he has at his finger tips. We'll be playoff contenders for the 5th straight season and have been favored to win in the matchups we've had more often than not, so I think he's earned some respect. Of course others believe the GM has a lot of control over who wins in the playoffs, so they'll suggest he hasn't, because 0 playoff wins.

Yes - I'm aware. I just said there's a possibility of it, which is true - although I acknowledge it's pretty damn low.

I'll add to this. IKF projects at 1.1 WAR this year. Jeimer Candelario also projects for 1.1 WAR and he got 3 years $45M. LGJ projects at 1.2 WAR and he got 3 years $42M. Now those are overpays...

My memory isn't great these days, but I don't recall suggesting that $$$ wouldn't be an issue. I did suggest there's a possibility they get approval to exceed the next luxury tax threshold. I do remember agreeing with BTS/Laika (one of them) that suggested the $7.5M IKF is getting is going to be the primary reason we can't afford Belly or Chapman. I try not to speak in absolutes (although I did just say the Dodgers would 100% prefer Belly to Teo - my bad). I just strongly disagree with the suggesting Atkins must have mis-read the market because he didn't sign Chapman instead of IKF and Turner. I think there's a good probability that isn't true - and even if it where, I don't think it's fair to suggest a GM ought to read the market perfectly on a yearly basis (or at all?). Are there GM's who correctly read the market correctly year after year after year? How much luck involved? It's all probabilities IMO.

And there's no risk with Teo. Got it.

I think there's a pretty good chance this happens. Shrinking foul territory will have an impact. There's a probability that Chapman just has a perception that he can't hit at RC though. Could be mental. Honest question. wRC+ includes park factors. Do they use the park factors that are calculated each individual year? (I assume they do and this may be hard to explain). But I think I've read it could take 2-3 years worth of data to properly calculate the new park factor for RC (which will reset this year as they've made more changes). If, after 2-3 years worth of data, they find out their park factors were way off, do they retroactively adjust stats from the previous years? Also - what would they have done early last year when there was little to no park factor data available? Would they have just assigned some average factor? or used the pre reno park factor for RC? Sorry if that doesn't make sense. I'm sure L54 will tell me I'm a retard if it doesn't.

Wowsers! I wonder what Snell ends up with. I can't imagine it's anywhere near this AAV.

They certainly did. But there's a decent chance they're going to pay Teo and Heyward $32M to give them like 2 WAR this year. I think there's as good of a chance that Heyward gives them -0.5 to 0.5 WAR as it is he provides 1+ WAR. Point being - even great organizations/GM's aren't going to be perfect with this stuff.

I'm pretty sure most people on here have already made up their minds. Atkins mis-read the market AGAIN, learned nothing from the Morales/EE situation and is a moron. As I said before - easy to sit back and rip on Atkins when you know very little about the factors.

Seems obvious that Chapman and his famous agent where the ones who mis-read the market and were stuck signing a pillow deal in SF.

Belly had a 164 wRC+ v. LHP last year. He can also play defense. If the Jays mis-read the market by not signing Chapman, then I think it's fair to suggest the Dodgers also did by signing Teo over Belly. If they didn't want all lefties, they could have just let Heyward leave and signed Duval, Renfroe - or another RH OFer. They signed Heyward very early in the FA season too - which was completely unnecessary for a guy who projects to be a 0.8 WAR player.

Yeah - that's fair. People make mistakes. Sorry tazsub3.

10-4. I just found it odd to go from "obsessed" to not watching for several years. I get it though - things change. I was a bit curious if you took some moral stance (which I thought would have been a bit odd for a 14 year old). Thanks for clarifying.

Thanks. Your contributions to this board are always valuable.

How do you know that? Because they let him go last year? The Dodgers would 100% want Belly for $25M over Teo at $23M. They mis-read his market also.

You quit watching baseball at age 14 because of the strike?

You have a problem with that?