Brownie19

Huh? Kirk Jansen Teo Biggio Espinal Tellez Smoak Travis Those are all guys who weren't really top prospects who forced there way onto the team and into a start role for the Jays over the last 8 years. Then of course you add Vlad and Bo to the list. Also - the Jays aren't projecting any of our AA/AAA guys to be "starters" this year - but there does certainly look to be room for them to force their way into a starting role. It's a pretty nice little setup actually.

To be fair - it also doesn't seem to have much impact on the NFL, which does make me question why MLB is so focused on a clean image. The NFL is bizarre. "me too" like 25 girls - high paid player in the league. Kneel for an anthem in a silent protest - cancelled immediately.

Which may be exactly why Atkins isn't adding guys on multi-year deals and/or signing more vets. We probably need to see what the farm system can give us this year.

Yeah - I don't know if being religious keeps you out of trouble. Franco was probably religious.

I was going off this - https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/postseason-zips?enddate=2023-10-01&series=ALWCS2 Probability of winning may be different than the betting lines. I'm also sure there are other probability predictors.

Seems doubtful. Great hitter, but $400M+ for a DH isn't a great idea IMO.

I like that devil guy - BUT - you can't shame anyone these days. That's cancel material. Some people like bad dragons in their orifices and that's perfectly fine. What's really sad is Bauer is cancelled for participating in a kink the woman told him she was into and asked for. In 1965, she probably would never have told him she was into something like that and if he got rough with her (whether she loved it - or hated it), in all likelihood, he wouldn't have been cancelled. She either wouldn't have told anyone, or would have been dismissed for suggesting it.

Fair point - I should have googled that. He wasn't charged - I should have said that.

Yes I can, because far too many fans understand the randomness and luck of it all. The Dodgers have "won the offseason" this year - all while increasing the likelihood of winning a playoff series by 2%. As for hitting home runs - that's just the new narrative. in 2015/2016, the Jays were s*** on for "relying on the long ball too much" and "you can't wait for the HR in the playoffs - the pitching is too good - you need to manufacture runs". Teams started looking for high contact rates and few K%'s as you needed to put the ball in play in the playoffs to win. Arizona was 22nd in HR's last year and they went to the world series. Did they benefit from a few hitters (like Moreno) hitting home runs WELL above their typical rate, in key games? Of course they did - but that's all random s***. The Twins were 3rd in the majors in HR's last year - did that make them a serious WS contender in your mind? Me neither. They weren't even favored v. the Jays, who couldn't hit s***. This talk that you need to hit HRs to win in the playoffs is just another copycat situation. A few teams have success with it and then everyone thinks that's answer. You see this s*** all the time. KC started the "you can't wait for the HR in the playoffs - the pitching is too good - you need to manufacture runs" narrative in 2015/2016 - when they really just ran into a f***ton of BABIP luck. KC also started the "lockdown bullpens win championships" - until Washington won in 2019 when it became "great starting pitching is what it takes to win in the playoffs". This s*** changes regularly because there is no formula to win in the playoffs - just as there's no formula to win at the casino regularly. So much randomness in both.

OK - I can buy that.

1. Don't kink shame. While I agree that violence against women is exposed and punished a lot more than it was in 1965 (which is great), we're also a lot more open about sexual kinks than we were in 1965. A woman who likes it rough is openly sharing her fantasy's and desires with a partner is certainly not abnormal. 2. Bauer was felt to be uncoachable by moronic teams that were behind the times and were unhappy that he wouldn't just fall in line and pitch the way they wanted. He was 100% just ahead of the curve and willing to speak up against the old philosophies (most of which were adopted by the best teams in baseball shortly thereafter). Now perhaps he could have expresses his views/opinions and justified his concerns with their approach in a better manner (or maybe he did it in a very polite and constructive way - who knows), but I also suspect there was simply some "old boys" who got their tighty whiteys in a knot because he challenged them - and they come from a generation that believes old people should never be challenged. I guess perception is reality, but I'm not sure Bauer deserves all the blame for that. I find it really sad that teams won't sign him due to PR concerns. Most of those PR concerns are due to the fact that most fans won't even know he was found not-guilty and that the bitch made all that s*** up to try and steal his money. They've already assumed guilt in their minds and are either unable or unwilling to change that. That's a s***** society right there. It's like the Bills punter. Cut, career over - all for false allegations from a party he wasn't even at. f*** society for letting this type of thing happen.

Like the Mets and Braves did last offseason?

Runs prevented also equals greater chance of success. A run prevented is a run scored. The Jays probability of beating Minnesota last year was 55.6%. The Rays were a 99 win team and their probability of beating the Rangers was only 56.7%. Even the best teams in baseball are only expected to win their series like 60-63% of the time. If the best teams were expected to win their series like 80+%, then I'd agree that pushing and "going for it" more often would yield much better playoff success. But it really doesn't move needle a lot.

Oh I 100% agree. The results were there in the end, but the fan experience sucked. If the Jays won a couple playoff series last year, or went to the WS - we'd probably all be talking how Ross was so smart to balance the team out with more pitching and defense (after having the 2nd best offense in baseball in 2022, but failing in the playoffs because we couldn't pitch or play defense). But we lost the coin flips and now some just want more offense back because it's more exciting to watch.

I think that's fair. But there's a solid chance we make the playoffs again in 2024 and 2025. If that happens, Atkins will have taken this team to the playoffs in every season you could reasonably expect him to (2016, 2020, 2022-2025) - EXCEPT for 1 season (2021) where we missed out by 1-2 games. All GM's have a shelf life and either way, we're probably nearing the end of the Atkins era. I'm not sure how many would find a way to complain about those results. I'm not sure I buy that GM's putting the "final touches" on a roster is even a thing. In 2021, AA added a bunch of BUMS (Soler, Roserio, Pederson) who all magically turned it around and carried the Braves to the title. Last year, the Rangers trade for Scherzer and Chapman - and they both sucked massive dongs in the playoffs. AA threw s*** against the wall and it stuck. Rangers trade for some legit players and both are injured/useless. We've seen a few GM's who actually sold at the deadline and ended up winning playoff rounds. The playoffs are all about hitting hot streaks and avoiding injuries at the right time.

I think it's ridiculous to suggest the success of the GM is primarily based on the results v. the expectations of the fans. Did the Rangers exceed fan expectations last year? After a hot start, they were 55-51 from June-Sept and limped into the playoffs with no DeGrom and a useless/injured Scherzer. They weren't favored to win ANY round until the WS. If they bowed out in the 1st round, they'd be bitching about their GM, just like Jays fans are. But, they won the coin flips, they won the WS. For my perspective, I think in 2020 we exceeded expectations - I didn't expect them to make the playoffs that year (shortened season or not). 2021 was exciting, but we came up a bit short and that momentum set some high expectations for 2022/2023. I think we met those expectations in 2022, but lost the coin flip in excruciating fashion. In 2023 our stars decided to take a massive cleveland steamer on the fans/team - yet we still managed to make it into the playoffs (where we were favorites to win the 1st round). So while I agree that I felt the disappointment - I don't think that's a great reason to hate on the GM (then again, I don't expect most fans to understand why they feel the way they do and make rational opinions). Good news is Ownership/Shapiro probably look at thing is a much more rational way than fans and seem to be giving Atkins full support.

Only a disappointment based on playoff success. If we win a few coin flips, your perception changes.

In every sport - it's all about playoff success. Division banners are pointless - highly doubtful the Braves, Dodgers and O's sat back and said "well at least we have a new banner" after getting smoked in the playoffs. My point was your downplaying teams that make the MLB WC series, like it's a useless accomplishment. I don't think you hear that as much in the NFL. It's just a bunch of coin flips once you're in.

This is true - but playoff success is like playing roulette. The probability of winning most games is near 50% - a coin flip. You bet on red or black. Even in the most lopsided matchups, the favored team typically only has a 60% chance. Judging a GM based on those results is stupid - yet everyone does it.

This movie is a guilty pleasure for me. I always watch it when I see it's on TV.

You're expecting Vlad to be injured throughout the 2025 season, which will cater his trade value? That's an odd expectation.

Personally - I don't give 1 f*** how he handles the media. The media is full of f***ing losers - pure scumbags. I'd actually prefer my GM to treat them like s***. I don't buy the narrative they handled the Manoah or Bass situation poorly. Bass is a loser - nobody wants him. Manoah has some issues. Lots of teams spend $200M+ and don't sniff the playoffs. It's 2024 - $200M is the new $100M

It would be interesting to know. I think it would be hilarious if he comes home after a press conference, smokes a joint and laughs about all the ******** he has to say to appease the public - joking about how f***ing stupid it all is. All Managers, GM's and players are essentially paid actors when in front of a camera (some better than others). Then again, you could be correct - he may just talk like that.

Agreed. I really don't understand how this system works. We seemingly judge the value of a player like it's 1996 (RBI's, Gold Gloves, etc.) and poor seasons don't seem to hold much weight.

Is making the playoffs 3 times in the last 4 years (while missing the 1 year by 1 win) impressive? Yes, I think it is. I've been a Jays fan since 92/93 and have watched them miss the playoffs in 24 of 26 seasons, prior to this recent run from 2020-2023. You can undersell the wild card all you want, but you just need to get in. Honest question - do people downplay the wild card teams in the NFL? I don't think they do like some dismiss it here. Technicality, but the team has been to the playoffs 4 times under Atkins (you're forgetting 2016) and nobody in their right mind expected them to compete in 2017-2019 given the team they inherited. The f***ing guy is 1-2 wins away from making the playoffs in every single season you could reasonably expect them to - yet people want him fired. It's a joke. I also think it's unfair to discount 2020 - it's not like Ross has any control over that. The team made it, end of story.