metafour

Sure, their offense is absolute horseshit and their superstar player (J-Rod) is barely hitting above league average. They are "adding", but you are grossly overstating what they have done. The idea that Justin Turner, from the offensive powerhouse Blue Jays (LOL) is going to lead them through the playoffs is comical. If you are looking for scrap players off this 2024 Jays team to improve your team enough to be a threat, then you are beyond desperate. You are making it sound like they are blowing the doors down and "going for it". Like I said, they could have acquired a much better hitter from the Rays, and they didn't do it (even though they obv. have enough prospect capital to have done so).

Oh wow, they added Arozarena who is having his worst hitting season ever. You realize that he is a 110 wRC+ hitter this year, right? If they cared as much as you are implying, why didn't they pony up more and trade for Isaac Paredes instead? You know, the far superior Rays hitter who was also available?

? He didn't play yesterday and the trade was formally announced around ~6 PM EST? Its not like he was the starting catcher and found out on the TV as he was about to go up to the plate to bat.

This is such a nothingburger storyline. They already told Jansen several days ago that he was going to be traded. Just like they told Kikuchi (this is confirmed). He only "found out on TV" because the trade leaked before it was even official. Big f***ing deal. If they already told him to expect a trade, who gives a crap, seriously? Maybe they should have had Jansen sitting with them in the front office all day so he'd find out the second after a deal went through? They could even all go to the bathroom together to make sure he didn't miss a trade going through while someone was on the toilet?" We're at the point where everyone is so dejected that every "move" or "non-move" is emotionally hyper-exaggerated to s***.

Lesko is nearly 21 and his results in A+ aren't just bad, they are terrible. The Rays acquired MiLB Nate Pearson. He is still being propped up by draft status hysteria. Its not like he has even been trending up this season; take a look at his last 3 starts: 14 IP, 15 ER, 3 HR, 11 BB, 17 K. You'll hear a lot about his "premium stuff", but he has a 10.21 K/9 against A+ hitters this season. Its not like he is blowing batters away when he otherwise isn't walking guys or giving up HR's (1.42/9 this season). Of course its the Rays so he will be in contention for the Cy Young 3 years from now, but if he wasn't "the best HS pitcher" in the 2022 class he'd be a big nothingburger by now.

Yes lmao. Ever heard of Connor Wong? Jansen is going to be the backup in Boston. He is worth less than Kirk in fWAR this season. He was is in fact the 2nd best catcher here as well LOL.

Get rid of the idiots and do what, hire someone else's front office in the middle of the season and have them make the trades? Some of you make Ross Atkins look like Terence Tao. These takes are borderline braindead.

Yeah, can't believe they didn't land Marcello Meyer for half a season of 0.6 fWAR Danny Jansen. This is actually a hilariously strong return for a backup catcher. Cutter Coffey was a 2nd round pick who signed for $1.85 million in 2022 and has actually shown some promise this season.

Pearson can pitch in the big leagues? He is a reliever who gives up almost 2 HR/9 and has no success whatsoever in terms of stranding baserunners. Those are literally your two most important RP metrics. You can find undrafted kids on Youtube who throw 100mph.

So a guy who only becomes worth anything at age 30/31 on his 3rd MLB team? Sometimes you need to just accept that a team can't carry every "promising" player for 6+ seasons of non-production in the off chance that something magically is going to happen in the unforeseeable future. You also need to accept that sometimes players just need to go elsewhere to clear their heads or find something new. The fact that Hoffman succeeded eventually in Philly does not mean that the same would have happened in Colorado Or Cincinnati - both of whom also controlled his rights. These reactions always kill me. Complain that a player sucks/is a bust and isn't providing any value, and then complain when he is traded because "what if they become good!".

Rivera was their 3rd round pick last year (Senior out of Florida):

They have likely tried everything with Pearson at this point. Big deal he has "2 more years of control" - he isn't developing into anything here, in which case you may as well hope to get lucky with a low-tier prospect. Its also better for the player to get a fresh start elsewhere.

He actually has very promising underlying data (K%, Whiff %, Z-Swing %, Z-Contact %, and O-Swing %). Yes he is "old for the level", but he is a catcher and they tend to have different development patterns than other position players.

He has hit 6 HR's this year my guy.

Clase just turned 22 and has legitimate tools. Its a high risk profile that they likely won't be able to develop, but this really isn't a "boring" acquisition.

Then why did Teoscar Hernandez, a guy who has now hit for 130+ wRC+ in 4 of the last 5 seasons, only manage to land a 1-year deal last season? Why is Brandon Belt, who hit for a 138 wRC+ last season, sitting at home this year with no buyers? Both of those guys can play DH on any team in the league. You fail to realize that as soon as you say "this guy will play DH for me", the barometer for what is required out of the bat skyrockets before it becomes logically sound to commit a back-breaking term/AAV to that player. A 10-year, $300+ million contract on your payroll immediately strains your financial flexibility. It only begins to make sense to take on that type of contract if the 1B/DH player in question is a shoe-in 150+ wRC+ hitter year in and year our. Nobody is committing that to a "very good, sometimes elite" 1B/DH hitter. Why? Because there are lots of hitters available who I can stick at DH on a 1-3 year deal. Marcell Ozuna is signed to a 4-year, $65M deal. Teoscar signed for 1 year, $20M. Kyle Schwarber got 4 years, $79M at age 28/29. And here is the real kicker: as a ~25 year old, Yordan Alvarez signed a 6-year extension for just $115M. That is peanuts for a hitter of his caliber, and the guy was in his mid 20's. You are also being facetious by bringing up Ohtani. He only plays DH because he has also been pitching (the value of which was also equated into his $70M AAV contract). But even if Ohtani was only a DH and never pitched again - he has been one of the ~3 best hitters in all of baseball over the past 4 seasons. So he falls into a unicorn category, which hopefully we're all smart enough to understand that Vlad Guerrero unfortunately hasn't even come close to proving he is also a part of.

How much weight do you think that MLB teams are going to place on him being the "#1 prospect" 5+ seasons ago? That would be item #10 on a hypothetical list of 10 things they'd seriously consider as part of the decision making process. Gabriel Moreno was the #1 prospect for a hot minute too - does this mean that his eventual FA contract is going to be longer than it otherwise would have been? Eric Hosmer was 28 at the time of his signing and he was the #8 prospect at one point; he still didn't get a 10 year deal. Vlad's age absolutely increases his odds of getting a 10+ year deal, but his odds are also simultaneously decreased due to his weight/body concerns and more importantly the fact that he hasn't shown offensive consistency. And like I said, his odds are absolutely also decreased by the position he plays. MLB teams are getting smarter, not dumber. The terms on 1B-only free agents have been getting shorter in recent years, not longer. There is also a reason why something like ~10 of the 27 total 10+ year contracts signed in MLB history have gone to Shortstops. It isn't because Shortstops were more likely to be 27 years old, or because of their prospect ranking. There are only two players who landed 10+ year contracts as 1B-only players: Pujols and Votto. Both were hilariously more dominant hitters than Vlad currently is. Votto was coming off 5 straight seasons of 150+ wRC+ hitting, and two of those were 170+ wRC+ seasons. Pujols had literally already accumulated enough career WAR at the time of his 10 year contract to be a HoF lock. The guy had 8 career 7+ WAR seasons prior to him landing a 10 year deal. But hey, Vlad is close to .900 OPS this season and he's going to be 27 and was a #1 prospect! 10-years, $350 mill is on lock boyos!

Terrible comps? His market is other recent first basemen who signed as UFA's. There is no "unified" free agent market in the MLB. It is all position specific. I just gave you the list of all of the long-term guarantees given to players that play his position. It isn't a very long list, and there is a reason for that. Like you said, if you don’t like it, find a corner to cry in because those are the actual facts. And you are correct - Fielder is the best comparison, and he still didn't get 10 years. And teams will in fact look at how that Fielder contract played out, and they won't conclude that it doesn't count bEcAusE iT tUrnEd ouT to bE a RarE deGeNerAtiVe tHinG LOL. Was it a rare degenerative thing for him to be a fat tub of lard?

Why don't you actually look at the market then? The market is the market, and the last 1B to sign a 10 year deal as an UFA was Albert Pujols all the way back in 2012. Vlad Guerrero isn't a SS or an OF, so don't compare him to those players "in the market". Since 2011 these are the longest contracts handed out to 1B: Albert Pujols - 10 years (2012) Prince Fielder - 9 years (2012) Eric Hosmer - 8 years (2018) Chris Davis - 7 years (2016) Freddie Freeman - 6 years (2022) So actually, the "market" would show you that it is VERY RARE for a 1B-only player to receive a 10 year deal. Pujols is an outlier as he was arguably the best hitter in baseball when he signed that deal. The other thing the "market" shows you is that those 7+ year deals to 1B-only players all turned out to be horrific decisions for the signing team. Which is why the "market" has moved away from making those commitments. I don't know what "market" you think you are referring to; but it surely isn't the MLB free agent market. That market has become incredibly stingy for 1B-only players.

He has had a total of 1 of those seasons in 6 career seasons played. The reality is that even with him looking "fixed" recently, to guarantee anything like what you just tried to guarantee is beyond silly given his past history. Regardless of his natural talent, if his swing broke down so badly so easily before (like it did after 2021), what is to say that it won't happen again? If anything, he has shown the exact opposite of being a guy who "repeats his swing" without fail. It seems like any minor transgression or injury puts him into a massive risk of completely losing his bat path. To pretend like this is anything but a major risk is foolish. No, 10 years $300 million is absolutely not a "no brainer" move LMAO. If you count this season, he has had 2 out of 6 career seasons with "elite hitting performance". $300 mill for that? Yes he has the talent to put up 6 more similar seasons; but he had the talent to do that in previous seasons as well and he didn't.

It's not a travesty, but when you go what seems like 3-4 years straight where its the same story, and on the local side you see the same pattern of top draft picks failing to develop over the same sample period, it seems more than just coincidence or a result of "well they're 16 years old lottery tickets and you never know what you'll get". How many of those teams that had big-money busts had the same result multiple years in a row? The Jays have also seen a big drop off in "low and mid-tier" IFA signings succeeding as well. It's not like they have any recent examples of guys like Moreno or Kirk popping up to become major talents to offset busts like Bonilla.

When you spend $4+ million on an IFA kid the expectations are rightfully high, even with them being 16 years old. That is about the same amount of money that Yesavage will end up signing for. Those signings are seen as impact-caliber talents - when the player can't even perform in the FCL it is a really bad outcome. Any 16 year old who they deem good enough to receive $4 million should have tools; and tools alone should at least leads to SOME success in rookie-ball. They haven't had much success with their top IFA signings in recent years, which also lines up with draft picks not developing either. They really need to change something from a player development standpoint.

HS RHP Carson Messina signs for $550K. Wow what a signing. Extend Ross Atkins!

It makes no sense to suggest that waiting until an asset is performing at an 0.3 WAR rate before looking to trade him is in fact NOT a "genius baseball move"? Do you suffer from Smooth Brain Syndrome?

Yes, it is genius-level operation by the Orioles to wait until Mullins becomes as useful as Cavan Biggio before looking to trade him. Great asset management there. I don't think most other teams would be that smart to consider waiting until a player has no value whatsoever before trading them. If these guys were as smart as you think they are, they would have traded him after his 6 WAR season or shortly after. Seeing as how he popped up out of nowhere and was unlikely to play at that level moving forward.