metafour

Valenzuela is an idiot. Pointlessly challenges a pitch nowhere near the zone and loses, and then has to let a likely strike go which would have ended the inning because he can't lose the second challenge if he is wrong. What a moron.

I don't really agree here. Both Tolle and Eyanson showed huge developmental growth post-draft in terms of velocity. Tolle was sitting ~90-92 in his draft year at TCU with plus fastball characteristics (which is why the pitch was still a plus pitch against college hitters despite below average velocity), but he is now SITTING 96 with the FB with the same elite traits. His fastball isn't an 80-grade pitch at 90-92 mph, but it is at 96+ mph. Eyanson was the same thing. His velocity spiked across the board in their system. He normally sat 92-94 in his draft year at LSU and started averaging ~95 this season while routinely floating at 97-99 mph which is what prompted his huge jump up the prospect rankings. The velocity on his secondaries was also up. Apparently his velocity has been more average recently so he might be one to watch to see if he can actually maintain the bigger stuff long-term, but his rise is largely due to increased stuff across the board. And its worth noting that his velocity was actually better pre-transfer to LSU, which is partly why he fell on draft day (there was concern about his velocity going backwards). Eyanson was also a big overslot guy (ranked #40 by MLB, but not drafted until #87 and still signed for $1.75M) so he also falls under the umbrella of guys who other teams probably also liked, but simply didn't have the cap-space capital freed up to pursue. And don't forget that Boston also took two other college pitchers with big arms (Witherspoon and Phillips) before they even took Eyanson, and both of those guys have been very meh in year one. So they paid $5M, $2.5M, and $1.75M for three college pitchers, and one of them ended up popping. So do they really have some magic vision for finding the right guys, or did they play the odds and 1/3 ended up being a great find? College pitchers from P4 name college programs who get taken in the ~2nd-5th rounds and end up being huge steals are almost always guys who's stuff/velocity spiked post draft, or guys who had big question marks/concerns which hurt their stock which ultimately ended up being overblown or nothingburgers (eg: a guy with a weird delivery, or a guy with irregular pitches/shapes). Its not very likely that an elite pitcher is going to somehow stay "undervalued" at programs like LSU, MSU, Tennessee, etc. If a guy like Eyanson was showing elite stuff in his draft year at LSU, he would have obviously been a lock as a 1st round pick. But he wasn't, which is why he fell to the 3rd round.

What the hell are you talking about, man? You realize that Daniel Guerra is like 6'6 240 and sits ~96 while touching 99 mph, with a wipeout slider, right? That kid has a rocket launcher for an arm. You are being obtuse, or you really don't know anything about this prospect. You seem to have forgotten Nolan Perry who came out of nowhere and is a borderline Top 100 prospect. In fact, he probably would have been there had he not gotten hit in the head with a line-drive. He has been completely dominant. Tiedemann is clearly destined as bullpen only at this point, but he is back in AAA with the same stuff he was showing pre-injury. He got hit around in his last outing, but 96+ from the left hand side can play as a potential late inning reliever. Bloss' results don't really matter that much because his command was all over the place post-TJ (which is normal). His stuff was actually up across the board before he got sidelined again. Obviously if his shoulder is toast then its a different matter entirely, but the stuff looked even better than it was pre-injury, hence why he is still ranked near the Top 100 guy on multiple lists (FG, TJStats) despite horrible "results". You forgot/left out the following developments this season: Danny Thompson: A $5k senior signing from last year's draft who is up to AA with a big jump in his velocity. He is now a ~mid 90's fastball guy who can throw strikes. 9.28 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, and just 0.84 HR/9 in AA. Its a back-end starter profile, but this guy was drafted as severe under-slot pick. Carson Messina: His fastball shape is awesome and he can spin two distinct breaking balls. Coming on really strong in Dunedin after coming back from injury last season. Big potential as he has more in the tank with the fastball velocity. Angel Rivero: This kid was the 3rd piece that just got sent off to LA for Soriano, but he was a Top 20 prospect in the FCL. Would have been a guy to watch down the pipe-line had he not been traded as a breakout prospect. Its really just Hechavarria and Stanifer who have clearly gone backwards this season. The rest of their top pitchers have maintained or progressed, with a few guys (mentioned above) who have taken big jumps this year. Guys like Tiedemann and Barriera are hard to include in this because their issue is that they can't stay on the mound. Even Barriera threw a gem tonight in Dunedin (4 perfect innings with 6 K's).

He has 2 doubles tonight (and a walk), but yes, his power was kind of in a rut in NH before he got traded, and off the top of my head his wRC+ had dropped to like ~114 prior to the trade. His zone contact rate is still fairly pedestrian at 79.6%, so I do think that there is still real risk with him. As someone mentioned: his age is really his best quality.

Lets trade him to get Valuenzuela into the lineup.

Yes, of course. That is clearly their thought process. But what we don't know: is there a real track-record of this type of development leading to noticeable improvements at the MLB level? Are they potentially more equipped than other organizations when it comes to actuating this type of strategy? Furthermore: is this a "better" strategy than targeting guys who hit the ball in the air really hard, but maybe have extreme upper-cut swings and very poor contact rates and hoping to "develop" them backwards to a less extreme swing? A lot of this is locked behind closed doors, so all we can do is observe and see what happens. Maybe they are on the cusp of the new breakthrough trend, or maybe this is all a fool's errand and we end up with a ton of bad slap-hitters.

Again, you aren't answering my question. It is a simple question: Why are they acquiring these players, when the base-level statistical understanding suggests that there is little to no likelihood of MLB success? I literally don't have an answer for that question. However, I'm not going to pretend that a major league front office hasn't looked at Bateman's GB rate or Max EV. This is a comically silly suggestion. And arm-chair "stat-heads" fall victim to this all the time. No, you aren't uncovering data or coming to conclusions that an MLB front office hasn't seen or considered themselves. Again, I am not suggesting that the Blue Jays are correct, but they are making player acquisition decisions FOR A REASON. Sometimes you are trading nothing so you're just getting back whatever, but I don't believe that they viewed trading Gausman as one of those moves regardless of his "decline" or contract status.

This is largely dependant on what you are looking at defensively. For instance: the Statcast Fielding Run Value has him as the 3rd worst defender at SS from 2019 to 2025 at minus 27. That is being brought down by last season where he graded horrible at minus 10, but even without that season he is at minus 17 (ie: he was normally negative ~4-5 per season). In reality: he played SS, but probably shouldn't have.

Ok, so why is it that you think they are targeting and acquiring these players that (theoretically) have zero chance at success at the MLB level based on your reading of the underlying data? The Jays' front office has access to the same data that you are looking at, and more. Do you think that they are unaware of the pitfalls that you are pointing out? They haven't run the numbers on comparable MLB players based on AAA numbers, or looked at GB-rates, barrel rates, and EV's? You are clearly a smart guy with a well above-average understanding of baseball, but fans like you tend to fall into the trap of thinking that you have "figured out" every baseball player. No, the fact that you've looked at ~3-4 "key" predictors and found zero successful MLB players with those same traits does not in fact conclude that the prospect in question sucks (mainly because those traits are in fact not always set in stone, even for a 24 year old in AAA). This type of analysis is good for finding flaws in a prospect, but at the end of the day nobody here has any idea what the Jays' development plan is going to be moving forward. And when teams acquire non-elite players/prospects, it is always with a forward-thinking mindset. And I'm not even suggesting that the Jays are correct or that any of these players will succeed, but the whole "these are his numbers in AA and AAA, therefore the book is closed" type analysis isn't as foolproof as you think it is. There are outliers for every trend, and there are also players that find ways to drastically change their profiles well into their late 20's. Jose Bautista from 2006-2009: 38.7% Pull, 43% FB, 41.8% GB, 29.5% Hard-Hit Jose Bautista from 2010-2013: 51.4% Pull, 48.7% FB, 36.2% GB, 38.5% Hard-Hit This is obviously an extreme outlier, but you are looking at a guy who OVERNIGHT added ~13% to his Pull percentage, and ~10% to his Hard-Hit percentage through a swing overhaul. This isn't an impossibility.

But his walk rate isn't his only offensive skill. He is also a BABIP-God (career .352 BABIP in the minors) which is driven by his consistently above-average LD% (26-29% every single year), low IFFB%, and speed. He obviously needs to add some more power to project as more than just a defensive CF, but even when you look at guys like Ernie Clement you need to realize that the player you see today didn't even materialize until his age 25+ seasons. He hit for zero power prior to then, and I'd bet that he wasn't pulling his flyballs from ages 21-25 either. Clement also didn't become a sub-40% GB hitter until he broke out in the MLB in 2024. He was a 40%+ GB hitter all throughout the minors before then. Both Clement and Lukes learned new "skills" in their late 20's, hence why they both went from non-prospects to solid MLB players. I'm not going to pretend like it is likely that he succeeds, but the Jays have had some success adding power to guys who were showing none beforehand (look at Dub Gleed), and Bateman in particular had hamate surgery in Feb of 2025 which clearly impacted his 2025 season.

There is definitely truth to this. Guys like this slip under the radar all the time and end up way out-producing their ranking because they were never properly ranked in the first place. I think that Bateman is sneaky-interesting and basically MLB ready. A lot will depend on just how good his defense in CF is. I still think that they sold too early on Gausman given how much stronger the returns were yesterday. I'm not sure if they maybe really liked Bateman (or Southisene for whatever reason?) and were maybe worried that they'd get dealt in a different deal if they waited the Cubs out.

Dasan Hill has massive stuff. Along with Johnny king, this gives them two LHP's with big wipeout stuff and developing control/command.

They also got $250K in IFA money.

This is a fair trade for a team that was always going to look to try to bounce back in 2027 and beyond. They didn't sign Cease for $200M+ so that they could give up after one bad season. You had clear holes in the rotation next season, and this gives you 3 good or better starters to build around. Oh no, they traded Nimmala! You have to give up something to get something valuable in return. At this point last season Nimmala looked toast as he was struggling heavily in High A. They have done well to recoup his bat and to turn him around for 2.5 years of a GOOD starting pitcher who still has more in him. The Jays have done well with pitchers at the MLB level and I can easily see them building Soriano into a 4 fWAR starter. They have seemingly hit on all of their first round picks over the past 3 drafts, so the whole argument that they'll never find a player like Nimmala again is beta-cuck behavior. He was the 20th overall pick; you can find and develop talent like this again.

Arbitrary most recent ~30 day sample for Bateman in AAA: .364/.438/.545 for a 152 wRC+ 10.7% BB rate, 16.1% K rate, .182 ISO He is running a .430 BABIP so its obviously a hot-streak, but he is at least turning up his performance with some increased power. He should get an MLB look in CF this season if they dump Varsho.

This was reported by Fangraphs in their Jays prospect writeup: They have been spamming these high contact, high patience, high plate control with low present power hitters hard lately, so clearly there is an organizational philosophy going on that these two follow. They may be trying to load up on as many of these guys as they can and seeing if one of them pops with added strength/power. Dub Gleed and Jay Harry are both guys who have seen their ISO's rise after being acquired in trades. Gleed all of a sudden looks interesting in AA, and he hit for barely any power while in Miami's system. This is less than I thought they'd get, but Bateman has a chance to be the starting CF next season, and he looks like a sure major leaguer even if its as a 4th OF. At worst you are replacing Myles Straw on the roster with him. Southisene is less interesting due to the severe lack of power and likely projects as a solid bench middle infielder.. I'm not sure if its been reported yet, but if the Cubs are picking up the remainder of Gausman's salary then the lower return makes more sense.

The Brewers have the same number of wins as the Dodgers and they also have an elite player development system and an absurdly deep farm system that is pumping out new top prospects every year. They have zero excuses for choosing to not top this offer. They simply chose to be cheap/wimpy as they always do. What are they even hoarding these prospects for? They are ready to win right now, and with Skubal in their rotation they absolutely could have beaten the Dodgers. This notion that none of these teams can even contend with the Dodgers so why even try is moronic. The 2025 Jays had half the talent on paper and SHOULD have beaten them. This was a missed opportunity by the Brewers. Who gives a s*** if Skubal won't re-sign long term? At some point you need to push some of your chips in and play for the win. Given their player development system, the loss of prospects is a non-issue.

We didn't. "#5" in the Dodgers system is like Top 50 in baseball.

Things may or may not be happening right now:

Keegan Matheson, who works for Rogers, already went out of his way to report that winning 2 games in a row has not changed anything in terms of their plans. It was basically a direct message to the part of the fanbase who is of the opinion that sweeping the Cardinals changes things for them.

It doesn't work that way, because you need time to set up trades. They can't just wait around until an hour before the deadline to decide what their plan is. Furthermore, the teams that are interested in acquiring these players (Gausman, Hoffman, Springer, Varsho etc.) aren't going to wait for you to make up your mind. The Jays already know what they are going to be doing. Furthermore, these last few games against two mid teams where they have barely won changes nothing. Look at the upcoming schedule: they have 20-straight games against good to very good teams. They are playing the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs (1 game), Philly, and the Astros who are now 9-1 over their last 10 games and one of the hottest teams in the league. The Phillies are scuffling, but they expect to be significant buyers at the deadline. And can we be honest here? They've won 3 of the last 4, but the offense still looks bad. It would be one thing if the team looked different offensively, but squeaking out wins in the late innings against teams with bad bullpens is not likely to be a winning strategy over these next 20 games.

Pretty significant news out of Tampa as Shane McClanahan is placed on the 15-day IL with a back issue. This is a team that already needed a SP even prior to this injury.

Its not an amazing system, but there are some interesting pieces. Crawford is a stretch for me. His bat looks terrible with huge flaws, and the defense being mid makes him much less intriguing than you'd expect a 22 year old former top prospect to be. He needs a complete offensive overhaul, otherwise he looks like a future Raimel Tapia. Painter is more interesting to me as a buy-low candidate. I don't see him reaching his draft hype unless the fastball changes a lot, but he's still talented enough to be a ~mid rotation or #4 starter. If they send over Hoffman, Alex McFarlane is an interesting potential piece as a reliever only profile who could help the Jays in 2027. He throws 100+ with a big slider.

Its hilarious seeing casual fans fail to grasp this concept. Lauer with the Dodgers: 89 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 90 Pitching+ The fact that he is running a .195 BABIP and near 90% LOB% is pure fluke. He does not have the measured stuff to suggest that he has this magical ability to prevent base-hits. The guy is running a 38% GB rate as well in his sample with the Dodgers, so its not like he is some weak groundball machine. The fans who today fail to realize that Lauer's BABIP is unsustainable are the same people who believed that Hoffman's .500+ BABIP was a real thing several months ago.

How is he "stuck"? He has $84M guaranteed over the next two seasons LOL. Yes, his plan was to put up a huge year and opt out and work that into a ~$200+M deal, but lets not act like his $42M AAV over 3 seasons is hurting him. Dude is going to be 30-31 years old when that deal expires.