metafour

LOL. The number of completely illogical theories that are casually thrown around here is WILD. Vlad Guerrero was a career .331 hitter in the minors with literally zero holes in his offensive profile. Hitting for average? Check. Hitting for power? Check. Low strikeouts? Check? Drawing walks? Check. He then came up to the MLB level and at age 22 hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 HR's, a 12.3% walk rate, and a 15.8% strikeout rate. Again, pretty much a flawless hitter. And your theory is that someone must have changed something to "try to make him better"?? No, man. Who in their right mind would tinker with that level of success? And what exactly do you surmise they were trying to "fix" with him? Trying to turn him into a .350 hitter with 60 HR's? The obvious answer is this: he is the high profile son of a past MLB star and has been famous since age 16 when he signed a monster IFA contract. Hitting has been incredibly easy for him since age 16. He came up to the MLB level and put up an MVP caliber season at age 22. What do you think his mental reaction to that would be? "I'm the s***, this is easy." He got too confident and comfortable after essentially nothing but absurd success at every point of his career, and it seeped into his actual play. The fact that he he got fat as s*** is highly suggestive that this is likely exactly what happened. If he wasn't putting any effort into maintaining his body, what makes you think that he was putting in the work to maintain his swing? His swing broke for the first time in his life, and he realized that he couldn't just wake up and show up to the stadium and hit .300 with 50 HR's. The reality is that baseball is hard as s*** even for the most elite players - they still have to work to maintain their elite ability. He showed up in considerably better physical shape this season and surprise surprise: it directly correlated with his turnaround in hitting. Again, he likely just needed to get serious about baseball again and put in the work. That was the problem, not some conspiracy theory nonsense about how someone tried to change his swing after a 6.3 fWAR season in 2021 LMAO. Take a look at his sprint speed per Statcast: 2021: 50th percentile (elite season) 2022: 35th percentile (disappointing season) 2023: 27th percentile (disappointing season) 2024: 47th percentile (elite season) Guess what the big answer is? In 2021 and 2024 he came prepared to play like an elite player. His athleticism was higher and his hitting was elite. In 2022 and 2023 he showed up unprepared and this is reflected in not only his physical appearance, but also his measured athleticism, and finally his offensive production as well.

Last season was literally the only time in Eflin's career wherein he was even close to an "elite arm". That is in 9 total MLB seasons. To call him an "elite arm" is pure comedy. Get off Elias' nuts dude. He acquired a mid-tier arm with piss-poor durability who has a total of one noteworthy MLB seasons. Gausman: 32.4 career fWAR Eflin: 16.2 fWAR Gausman is ~3 years older. Eflin sure as s*** isn't putting up ~16 fWAR over the next three seasons. To pretend like these are comparable players is comedy.

Charles McAdoo going off again in game 1 of a double-header: 3 for 4, 2 2B, Oppo-HR, BB

Charles McAdoo's last 5 games: .474/.565/.842

Seattle Mariners last 4 games: 15-1 Loss 3-2 Loss 2-1 Loss 5-3 Loss 7 total runs scored. Boy did Jerry Dipoto ever go HAM at the trade deadline or what? Atkins should take notes, THIS is how you make moves to make sure that you're not wasting your elite pitching. I'm really at a loss for words at just how much Dipoto managed to shore up that offense. Key deadline acquisition Justin Turner struck out for the final out with the game on the line to end tonight's game against the mighty Pittsburgh Pirates. Turner is hitting below 100 wRC+ since the trade. The stupendous Mariners led by Jerry "Boss" Dipoto are now down to 28% odds of making the playoffs (per Fangraphs), after sitting at 50%+ odds heading into the trade deadline. Just an absolute masterclass display of team-improvement.

In Dunedin: 19 YO RHP Gilberto Batista (Jays debut, part of Jansen trade): 2 IP, 3 H, 3 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 6 K Not super sharp, but he was up to 95 mph and got whiffs with 4 different pitches. 19 YO LHP Luis Torres: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K Also up to 94/95 and a kid to watch moving forward.

Jake Bloss today: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K Topped out at 95.5 mph & struck out Jasson Dominguez.

Will Wagner has played in like 3 games and he has already hit a ball as hard as Colt Keith has all season long. What's funny is that Wagner is supposed to have poor raw power, and Keith is supposed to be Hercules. But hey, Keith made someone's Top 25 one time. He is 23 years old, which means that in 3 years he might hit as well as Horwitz is hitting today.

RJ Shreck in AA since being acquired: .306/.419/.583 180 wRC+ 16.3% BB%, 20.9% K%

Not really. He just turned 23 and was promoted at the expected pace that you would promote a HS player who was hitting well (which he was). The curiosity with him is the fact that he merely only became a "good" hitter in AAA, and has been nothing special at the MLB level so far. So is he a guy who hit a developmental wall in AA and really isn't as good as everyone thought he was? There are always guys who look elite in the lower/mid minors, but they all of a sudden become more average once they hit AAA/MLB pitching and never become impact MLB players.

Its a lot closer than you probably assume at face value. Schneider doesn't swing that much more than Biggio does.

Who gives a s***? The list of players who became considerably better MLB players despite never making a "Top 100 list" is huge. Keith was ranked high because he mashed at A+ and AA. But in AAA he was actually a lesser hitter than both Horwitz and Wagner. Yes he is younger than both, but this isn't some automatic confirmation that he will be a better MLB player. The most recent data points are always the most relevant for trying to determine MLB success. Top 100 lists are driven by hype. Look no further than Ethan Salas. That kid is still making Top 100 lists based off of 48 games in A-ball last year and the fact that the Padres promoted him like idiots to a level that he has no business being at, and yet his hitting has been an absolute abomination since then. He is hitting .194/.285/.299 this season with zero power, yet I'm supposed to believe that he is a better prospect than Nimmala. That kid is #20 on Pipeline's list and Nimmala isn't ranked at all, but what is the difference supposed to be? Both are miles away and have "elite upside" at premium positions. The difference is that Nimmala is actually doing something at the plate recently, while Salas looks like a turd who's only saving grace appears to be that he doesn't strike out a lot.

You're doing the thing where you easily find flaws in your own players (who you see everyday) but butter up another team's prospects. Meadows can be identical to Greene? On what planet? Meadows is nearly 25, has been bad at the MLB level over the past two seasons, and his underlying data and even MiLB stats are nothing mind-blowing. He is really fast and can play CF, so that's nice...but apart from that he is basically a glossed up Joey Loperfido Colt Keith is at least more promising than Meadows, but its 119 wRC+ in AAA and 93 wRC+ at the MLB level so far. Yippie. For a guy who shows up on prospect lists with 60+ raw power, his Statcast EV's are barely discernible from Spencer Horwitz. Jackson Jobe ranks high...just like Tiedemann did before he blew his arm out (lol). He has thrown just 53 innings in AA this season and is walking 4.7 batters per 9.

MLB Pipeline sucks (and that has nothing to do with the Jays low ranking). Their rankings are very very lazy. That new Top 30 Jays list is not good. For example: where is Victor Arias? It seems very obvious to me that they don't want to have to write up a bunch of new profiles, so they try really hard to keep guys on the list who they already have profiles written for. For example: Josh Rivera slotted in at #30. Arias is easily a better prospect. Dahian Santos at #22 is another "what?" inclusion.

Nimmala tonight: 3 for 5, HR, 2B He hit 3 balls over 100 mph (105.1, 102.0, 100.3).

His ISO is down to .155 this season (xSLG = .374) and he combines that with low BA, a really high strikeout rate, and below average contact rates. Even with the above average walk rate and chase rate, that profile is pretty ugly. Traditionally the guys that stick around in the MLB with high strikeouts/poor contact are typically guys with raw power who can mash and run into HR's even when they dont make the best contact. Schneider isn't even that, as his EV's are all very average. He is dependant on pulling the ball with optimal launch-angle to generate power, but the fact that he doesn't make contact and strikes out so much limits the number of occurrences where he is able to pull and barrel the ball properly. The other Buffalo guys (Wagner, Horwitz, Roden, Kasevich) are all contact freaks. I have a much easier time seeing those guys stick. Roden by the way hits the ball VERY hard. I've been looking at Buffalo games on Statcast recently and he is reaching 110+ mph EV's seemingly every couple games.

Why would he be fired during the season? Has there been a single GM fired yet? What is the benefit of firing him before the season ends?

More new draftees making their debuts in Dunedin today. 4th rounder Nick Mitchell had a standout game: 2 for 3, HR, BB, K Sean Keys: 1 for 4, 2 K

Jacob Sharp since being acquired: .316/.409/.842 with 3 HR's in 6 games (2 walks, 2 strikeouts).

Moves of note: - RHP Jake Bloss joins Buffalo, expected to make AAA start this Saturday. - SS Josh Kasevich has been promoted to Buffalo - OF Dasan Brown has been promoted to New Hampshire

It is so strange because he was rock-solid as a prospect in the high minors. He looked nothing like the hitter he ended up becoming at the MLB level: AA: .301/.378/.520 for a 159 wRC+ with a 13.9% K-rate AAA: .313/.368/.750 for a 161 wRC+ with an 18.4% K-rate (small sample of 18 games) Obviously stats don't always line up, but there was nothing to suggest that he would be a .200 MLB hitter. Going back even further, he hit .311 in Rookie ball and .286 in High-A.

Alejandro Kirk is a 25 year old catcher with a 1.2 fWAR in 61 games, who is really good defensively, who walks at a solid rate and strikes out very little. If he develops a touch of additional power, he has a shot at putting out really great overall numbers for a few years.

He was NOT the "#1 prospect in baseball" when he was traded. He ranked #1 for a few weeks on BA's list during a midseason July update after 4-5 prospects ranked ahead of him all graduated off the list. He was moved up by default, but more importantly, when BA did their actual full re-rank at the beginning of the next year he dropped to a spot even lower than he was before he temporarily became "the #1 prospect". He went from #5 (early 2022), to #1 (midseason 2022), and then down to #12 in January 2023 when BA did a full re-ranking of their entire list. He was traded on December 23, 2022. The lists themselves are always behind the actual industry consensus. Nobody in baseball had him as the "#1 prospect" at the time of the trade. This is no different than how the Jays announced the recent acquisition of Charles McAdoo who was "ranked #25-30" on Pittsburgh's lists, and then all of a sudden the writers came out to report that they were about to move him up to Top 10-15. In the case of Moreno, his #12 ranking on January 18th, 2023 is more accurately indicative of where he was ranked at the actual time of trade, NOT his July 2022 temporary "#1" ranking. Again, he was traded on December 23rd, 2022 - not in July 2022.

That wasn't what was said at all. Neither I, nor anyone else stated that Arozarena wasn't an obvious upgrade to their roster. The comment that was made was that those two trades supposedly proved that DiPoto wasn't "wasting his pitching". All I said was that Seattle could have done much more at the trade deadline, and trading for Arozarena and taking a pie in the sky gamble that 40 year old Justin Turner is going to get hot at the right time does not warrant patting DiPoto on the back for anything. They lost 6-0 today and had 3 total hits. Its a little too early to celebrate Seattle's supposed offensive renaissance.

I've been looking at AAA Statcast recently; check the EV's on Alan Roden lately: Aug 4th: 108.4 (1B), 106.9 (GO) Aug 3rd: 94.3 (1B), 89.3 (1B) Aug 2nd: 112.2 (2B), 103.7 (FO), 102.9 (LO) Aug 1st: 110.5 (2B), 94.6 (LO), 90.5 (2B)