metafour

He legit has like a 120 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Maybe try watching with your eyes open.

I'm so done with Danny Jansen. Stop trying to make Jansen happen, its over.

Jake Bloss with a bounce-back tonight, albeit a bit wild: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 5 K The FB topped at 94.4 mph and averaged 92.9. He had 11 whiffs on 28 swings (39%). Alan Roden also 2 for 3 with a HR.

Oh wow, so a talented hitter (1st round pick) managed to find a way to improve?

Pointless post is pointless. He is 18 years old and in A-ball. Of course that means that there is an outcome where he doesn't even make the MLB. I never said that he was guaranteed to be an MLB star - any player who is still only in A ball is obviously going to have a wide range of potential outcomes. The original post by Laika that I was responding to made the claim that his K-rate meant that his chance was "puny" - which simply isn't true at all, given the fact that I can name quite a few current MLB stars who struck out a lot at similar ages/levels. The one thing they all have in common is that they have elite power/bat-speed/etc. Laika then shifted to the argument that these guys with high K-rates must have had better batted-ball profiles. Some of them did, but I can also point you to Marcell Ozuna for example: Age 19 @ Low-A: 32.1% K-rate, .289 ISO, 0.71 GB/FB, 22.0% IFFB% Age 18 Nimmala @ A-ball: 31.9% K-rate, .239 ISO, 0.67 GB/FB, 25.3% IFFB% Ozuna's GB/FB rate was 0.51, 0.77, and 0.71 over his first 3 pro seasons in the low minors before it started improving, so the idea that an 18 year old is doomed to the same batted ball profile for the remainder of his career is simply not true. And again, a pretty important fact here is that Nimmala is playing SS, and there is no indication yet that he wont continue to play SS. A legitimate SS with huge power has considerably more leeway than most hitters, which would increase Nimmala's odds in comparison to "most" high-strikeout low minors hitters. Paul DeJong is in his 8th MLB season as a high strikeout, low BA, high FB% SS...because he can crank out HR's and play defense. Here is another example: Age 21 Brent Rooker in High-A: 29.0% K-rate, .273 ISO, 0.82 GB/FB, 10.3% IFFB% Brent Rooker went on to strike out at a putrid 34.7% rate in AAA at age 24. How the hell is that guy a successful MLB hitter with a K-rate that poor? By the way, Nimmala had another very Nimmala-esque game this morning: 2 for 4, HR (#16), 2B, 2 K

No, I'm not thinking about it the wrong way. Most players at that age/level don't have the raw tools to ever even make the MLB. So if they have a 30% K-rate in A-ball, it is likely because they outright suck. Why would I care about comparing Nimmala to those players? He doesn't belong in that "bucket". The players who can "turn around" or succeed with defects like a high K-rate in the low minors are those with elite tools. Nimmala is a SS with 60 or 70 grade power upside and above-average current EV's. You will find that most if not all of the successful MLB hitters who were striking out a lot in the low minors will fit some variant of that type of profile. Most of Nimmala's issue right now is pitch recognition, which you would expect to naturally improve as he sees more pitches. Here is a fun fact: Nimmala is YOUNGER than each of the following 1st round HS hitters who were just selected in the 2024 Draft: Bryce Rainer, PJ Morlando, Theo Gillen, Kellon Lindsey, Dante Nori. So he is still younger than 5 of the 8 HS hitters who were drafted a full calendar year after him. He is very young. His batted ball profile has (current) flaws, but to pretend like this means that he has only a miniscule likelihood of making the MLB is silly. His current profile looks very similar to Trevor Story, who obviously had significant MLB success for a period of time.

Biggio is younger than Lukes and has 6.2 career fWAR. Relax my guy.

This is wrong. There are multiple current MLB stars who had similar K-rates to Nimmala at similar ages in the low minors. One of them is Baltimore's own Gunnar Henderson who had a 29.3% K-rate at an older age 20 in A-ball (157 PA) and then followed that with a 30.1% K-rate in High-A (289 PA) at age 20. Nimmala's K-rate is also improving. He is at at a 27% K-rate for the month of August. Even if he forever remains a high-strikeout hitter, his power is elite and will play regardless. He is literally hitting for more power than Vlad at the same age.

Alan Roden since July 25th: .400/.475/.624 (184 wRC+) with a 13.1% BB-rate and a 12.1% K-rate. .224 ISO as well.

RJ Schreck update: 2 for 3, 2B, HR, BB Oh yeah, and this was the HR:

Marc Hulet normally has pretty good insight into Jays prospects. This is what he wrote about Lazaro Estrada today:

LOL. The number of completely illogical theories that are casually thrown around here is WILD. Vlad Guerrero was a career .331 hitter in the minors with literally zero holes in his offensive profile. Hitting for average? Check. Hitting for power? Check. Low strikeouts? Check? Drawing walks? Check. He then came up to the MLB level and at age 22 hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 HR's, a 12.3% walk rate, and a 15.8% strikeout rate. Again, pretty much a flawless hitter. And your theory is that someone must have changed something to "try to make him better"?? No, man. Who in their right mind would tinker with that level of success? And what exactly do you surmise they were trying to "fix" with him? Trying to turn him into a .350 hitter with 60 HR's? The obvious answer is this: he is the high profile son of a past MLB star and has been famous since age 16 when he signed a monster IFA contract. Hitting has been incredibly easy for him since age 16. He came up to the MLB level and put up an MVP caliber season at age 22. What do you think his mental reaction to that would be? "I'm the s***, this is easy." He got too confident and comfortable after essentially nothing but absurd success at every point of his career, and it seeped into his actual play. The fact that he he got fat as s*** is highly suggestive that this is likely exactly what happened. If he wasn't putting any effort into maintaining his body, what makes you think that he was putting in the work to maintain his swing? His swing broke for the first time in his life, and he realized that he couldn't just wake up and show up to the stadium and hit .300 with 50 HR's. The reality is that baseball is hard as s*** even for the most elite players - they still have to work to maintain their elite ability. He showed up in considerably better physical shape this season and surprise surprise: it directly correlated with his turnaround in hitting. Again, he likely just needed to get serious about baseball again and put in the work. That was the problem, not some conspiracy theory nonsense about how someone tried to change his swing after a 6.3 fWAR season in 2021 LMAO. Take a look at his sprint speed per Statcast: 2021: 50th percentile (elite season) 2022: 35th percentile (disappointing season) 2023: 27th percentile (disappointing season) 2024: 47th percentile (elite season) Guess what the big answer is? In 2021 and 2024 he came prepared to play like an elite player. His athleticism was higher and his hitting was elite. In 2022 and 2023 he showed up unprepared and this is reflected in not only his physical appearance, but also his measured athleticism, and finally his offensive production as well.

Last season was literally the only time in Eflin's career wherein he was even close to an "elite arm". That is in 9 total MLB seasons. To call him an "elite arm" is pure comedy. Get off Elias' nuts dude. He acquired a mid-tier arm with piss-poor durability who has a total of one noteworthy MLB seasons. Gausman: 32.4 career fWAR Eflin: 16.2 fWAR Gausman is ~3 years older. Eflin sure as s*** isn't putting up ~16 fWAR over the next three seasons. To pretend like these are comparable players is comedy.

Charles McAdoo going off again in game 1 of a double-header: 3 for 4, 2 2B, Oppo-HR, BB

Charles McAdoo's last 5 games: .474/.565/.842

Seattle Mariners last 4 games: 15-1 Loss 3-2 Loss 2-1 Loss 5-3 Loss 7 total runs scored. Boy did Jerry Dipoto ever go HAM at the trade deadline or what? Atkins should take notes, THIS is how you make moves to make sure that you're not wasting your elite pitching. I'm really at a loss for words at just how much Dipoto managed to shore up that offense. Key deadline acquisition Justin Turner struck out for the final out with the game on the line to end tonight's game against the mighty Pittsburgh Pirates. Turner is hitting below 100 wRC+ since the trade. The stupendous Mariners led by Jerry "Boss" Dipoto are now down to 28% odds of making the playoffs (per Fangraphs), after sitting at 50%+ odds heading into the trade deadline. Just an absolute masterclass display of team-improvement.

In Dunedin: 19 YO RHP Gilberto Batista (Jays debut, part of Jansen trade): 2 IP, 3 H, 3 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 6 K Not super sharp, but he was up to 95 mph and got whiffs with 4 different pitches. 19 YO LHP Luis Torres: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K Also up to 94/95 and a kid to watch moving forward.

Jake Bloss today: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K Topped out at 95.5 mph & struck out Jasson Dominguez.

Will Wagner has played in like 3 games and he has already hit a ball as hard as Colt Keith has all season long. What's funny is that Wagner is supposed to have poor raw power, and Keith is supposed to be Hercules. But hey, Keith made someone's Top 25 one time. He is 23 years old, which means that in 3 years he might hit as well as Horwitz is hitting today.

RJ Shreck in AA since being acquired: .306/.419/.583 180 wRC+ 16.3% BB%, 20.9% K%

Not really. He just turned 23 and was promoted at the expected pace that you would promote a HS player who was hitting well (which he was). The curiosity with him is the fact that he merely only became a "good" hitter in AAA, and has been nothing special at the MLB level so far. So is he a guy who hit a developmental wall in AA and really isn't as good as everyone thought he was? There are always guys who look elite in the lower/mid minors, but they all of a sudden become more average once they hit AAA/MLB pitching and never become impact MLB players.

Its a lot closer than you probably assume at face value. Schneider doesn't swing that much more than Biggio does.

Who gives a s***? The list of players who became considerably better MLB players despite never making a "Top 100 list" is huge. Keith was ranked high because he mashed at A+ and AA. But in AAA he was actually a lesser hitter than both Horwitz and Wagner. Yes he is younger than both, but this isn't some automatic confirmation that he will be a better MLB player. The most recent data points are always the most relevant for trying to determine MLB success. Top 100 lists are driven by hype. Look no further than Ethan Salas. That kid is still making Top 100 lists based off of 48 games in A-ball last year and the fact that the Padres promoted him like idiots to a level that he has no business being at, and yet his hitting has been an absolute abomination since then. He is hitting .194/.285/.299 this season with zero power, yet I'm supposed to believe that he is a better prospect than Nimmala. That kid is #20 on Pipeline's list and Nimmala isn't ranked at all, but what is the difference supposed to be? Both are miles away and have "elite upside" at premium positions. The difference is that Nimmala is actually doing something at the plate recently, while Salas looks like a turd who's only saving grace appears to be that he doesn't strike out a lot.

You're doing the thing where you easily find flaws in your own players (who you see everyday) but butter up another team's prospects. Meadows can be identical to Greene? On what planet? Meadows is nearly 25, has been bad at the MLB level over the past two seasons, and his underlying data and even MiLB stats are nothing mind-blowing. He is really fast and can play CF, so that's nice...but apart from that he is basically a glossed up Joey Loperfido Colt Keith is at least more promising than Meadows, but its 119 wRC+ in AAA and 93 wRC+ at the MLB level so far. Yippie. For a guy who shows up on prospect lists with 60+ raw power, his Statcast EV's are barely discernible from Spencer Horwitz. Jackson Jobe ranks high...just like Tiedemann did before he blew his arm out (lol). He has thrown just 53 innings in AA this season and is walking 4.7 batters per 9.

MLB Pipeline sucks (and that has nothing to do with the Jays low ranking). Their rankings are very very lazy. That new Top 30 Jays list is not good. For example: where is Victor Arias? It seems very obvious to me that they don't want to have to write up a bunch of new profiles, so they try really hard to keep guys on the list who they already have profiles written for. For example: Josh Rivera slotted in at #30. Arias is easily a better prospect. Dahian Santos at #22 is another "what?" inclusion.