metafour

You can pretty clearly see obvious differences in his plate discipline and batted ball metrics from 2024 to 2023, so it can't be all "luck". His 2021 metrics look very similar to 2024, so there appears to be a sweet-zone with him that produces the best results. He is swinging less often this year (nearly a 3% drop in overall Swing% from PY) and is being more selective at what he swings at (Called strike % is up by 3.2% and his Z-Swing% is down by a whopping 5.4%). Subsequently his Hard hit% is up by a whopping 6.2%. His Barrel% is up by nearly 3%, and his average EV is up by 2.4%. What this tells me is that he is reverting back to being a "smart hitter" and looking for "his pitch to hit", and subsequently crushing it. Post 2021 it seemed like he got high on his success and he started just swinging at whatever was in the zone (and then he would get in bad counts and start expanding outside the zone as well). Since he is so talented he was still making contact, but it wasn't good contact. His IFFB% was 11.7% in 2023 and 11.2% in 2022; it is at 5.6% this year and was 7.7% in 2021. I think it really is as simple as it sounds: he is making better swing decisions and therefore making better, harder contact (versus swinging more often and making shittier contact, which is where he was trending in 2022 and 2023).

Did he sign a "bad deal", or are you seriously understating the fact that DH/1B contracts are clearly suppressed and have been for 7+ years now? Even if he signed a "bad deal", he didn't leave $200 million on the table. Its not like the Astros were sitting there expecting to have to pay him $300M, and Alvarez turned around and said "how about $115M?" Players in the MLB are paid relative to other similar players. The impasse here is that a totally "fair" offer for Vlad is likely ~$200-225M. But he expects to be paid $300+M. And there is no precedent for that signing, so what makes him the exception?

Yordan Alvarez's extension just two years ago: 6 years, $115 million. He signed it when he was 24 years old, had elite seasons behind him, and was in the midst of an elite season in 2022 when he signed the extension. Again, which team is lining up to pay a 1B/DH $300+ million with no guarantee on his hitting? What makes Guerrero worth nearly 3x as much as Alvarez? These are the questions that any MLB front office is going to need to answer.

Clearly they do considering that I've seen about two dozen iterations of these posts: "gotta give credit to Atkins here", "who is letting Atkins make trades", "can't believe they're letting Atkins sell our players", etc. etc. There is a greater than zero chance that Atkins has already been benched and isn't making ANY decisions.

Loperfido is like Derek Fisher/Teoscar Hernandez - ironically both also came from the Astros.

The Blue Jays are a think-tank organization. I have no idea why everyone keeps bringing up Atkins as if he is making moves in a vacuum alone. Even before this failure of a season he wouldn't have been making decisions alone. Now that this team is "re-tooling" and his job is in serious question, I would be even more shocked if he was being left alone to make these trades. You guys need to remember that this FO has former Astros GM James Click sitting in it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he has been granted more decision making power by Shapiro with these trades. The Indians had Antonetti, Atkins, Stearns, and Falvey all in the FO at the same time at one point under Shapiro.

Its Billy Wagner's kid.

Sounds like there might be 2 more prospects involved.

Ha ha ha ha.

Reports coming in that the Astros have scratched RHP Jake Bloss from his start tonight. Kikuchi or Flaherty?

Correct, they are terrible. Which means they need MUCH MORE than Arozarena and his 110 wRC+ little boy. So obviously the big acquisition of Justin Turner is a game-changer. Dipoto really not wasting that pitching staff trollolol. Maybe we can ship them George Springer next? Another proven playoff hitter for the ALL-IN Mariners!

And I am telling you that they are NOT doing what they need to do. Their offense is absolutely horrific. Adding Turner is pure desperation. You never answered me: why didn't they ball-up and acquire Parades instead of Arozarena? THAT would be a difference-maker. Instead they are hoping that Arozarena who is hitting .215 is going to bounce back? Their offense is littered with .220 hitters already. You're going on about how they are adding "proven playoff hitters" and yet they may not even make the playoffs.

The Jays needed a SS (Bo injury) and added DeJong. The Mariners needed a 1B and added Turner. It is literally the same caliber of trade LOL.

Hey dumbo, I'm responding to someone who is trying to make the argument that the Mariners are making mountain-moving offensive acquisitions in order to "not waste their elite pitching". This is in reference to acquiring Justin f***ing Turner who isn't even close to being the best hitter on a Jays team that hasn't hit for most of the season. This is barely an anything acquisition; no different from the Jays trading for DeJong last season like you correctly mentioned. Wake me up when Dipoto actually acquires a difference maker. THEN you can talk about how he's "not wasting his pitching".

Sure, their offense is absolute horseshit and their superstar player (J-Rod) is barely hitting above league average. They are "adding", but you are grossly overstating what they have done. The idea that Justin Turner, from the offensive powerhouse Blue Jays (LOL) is going to lead them through the playoffs is comical. If you are looking for scrap players off this 2024 Jays team to improve your team enough to be a threat, then you are beyond desperate. You are making it sound like they are blowing the doors down and "going for it". Like I said, they could have acquired a much better hitter from the Rays, and they didn't do it (even though they obv. have enough prospect capital to have done so).

Oh wow, they added Arozarena who is having his worst hitting season ever. You realize that he is a 110 wRC+ hitter this year, right? If they cared as much as you are implying, why didn't they pony up more and trade for Isaac Paredes instead? You know, the far superior Rays hitter who was also available?

? He didn't play yesterday and the trade was formally announced around ~6 PM EST? Its not like he was the starting catcher and found out on the TV as he was about to go up to the plate to bat.

This is such a nothingburger storyline. They already told Jansen several days ago that he was going to be traded. Just like they told Kikuchi (this is confirmed). He only "found out on TV" because the trade leaked before it was even official. Big f***ing deal. If they already told him to expect a trade, who gives a crap, seriously? Maybe they should have had Jansen sitting with them in the front office all day so he'd find out the second after a deal went through? They could even all go to the bathroom together to make sure he didn't miss a trade going through while someone was on the toilet?" We're at the point where everyone is so dejected that every "move" or "non-move" is emotionally hyper-exaggerated to s***.

Lesko is nearly 21 and his results in A+ aren't just bad, they are terrible. The Rays acquired MiLB Nate Pearson. He is still being propped up by draft status hysteria. Its not like he has even been trending up this season; take a look at his last 3 starts: 14 IP, 15 ER, 3 HR, 11 BB, 17 K. You'll hear a lot about his "premium stuff", but he has a 10.21 K/9 against A+ hitters this season. Its not like he is blowing batters away when he otherwise isn't walking guys or giving up HR's (1.42/9 this season). Of course its the Rays so he will be in contention for the Cy Young 3 years from now, but if he wasn't "the best HS pitcher" in the 2022 class he'd be a big nothingburger by now.

Yes lmao. Ever heard of Connor Wong? Jansen is going to be the backup in Boston. He is worth less than Kirk in fWAR this season. He was is in fact the 2nd best catcher here as well LOL.

Get rid of the idiots and do what, hire someone else's front office in the middle of the season and have them make the trades? Some of you make Ross Atkins look like Terence Tao. These takes are borderline braindead.

Yeah, can't believe they didn't land Marcello Meyer for half a season of 0.6 fWAR Danny Jansen. This is actually a hilariously strong return for a backup catcher. Cutter Coffey was a 2nd round pick who signed for $1.85 million in 2022 and has actually shown some promise this season.

Pearson can pitch in the big leagues? He is a reliever who gives up almost 2 HR/9 and has no success whatsoever in terms of stranding baserunners. Those are literally your two most important RP metrics. You can find undrafted kids on Youtube who throw 100mph.

So a guy who only becomes worth anything at age 30/31 on his 3rd MLB team? Sometimes you need to just accept that a team can't carry every "promising" player for 6+ seasons of non-production in the off chance that something magically is going to happen in the unforeseeable future. You also need to accept that sometimes players just need to go elsewhere to clear their heads or find something new. The fact that Hoffman succeeded eventually in Philly does not mean that the same would have happened in Colorado Or Cincinnati - both of whom also controlled his rights. These reactions always kill me. Complain that a player sucks/is a bust and isn't providing any value, and then complain when he is traded because "what if they become good!".

Rivera was their 3rd round pick last year (Senior out of Florida):