metafour

Varland has pitched seemingly every game for a month now. Always the first guy out of the bullpen. All of these batters have seen him. I don't understand why you wouldn't use a fresh reliever who hasn't been seen yet. There's no way that worn-out Varland is better than someone like fresh Fischer.

No man, Bassitt is categorized as a "long man" and therefore you can NOT use him in the 8th/9th innings. Because he is a long man, you are only allowed to use him from innings ~3 to 6. This is in the MLB rule-book.

He is talking out of his ass. 1) He has used Varland in like every game all postseason. So apparently he doesn't mind how many looks he's giving up there. 2) If you want to make sure Seattle isn't getting repeated looks on your closer, maybe don't pitch him the night before in a game that you are winning by 6 runs? And that's the whole lunacy of it all. In a low-leverage situation he throws out his closer, and then in the highest leverage situation of the entire series a day later he throws out his most volatile reliever while simultaneously flipping Raleigh and Polanco to their stronger sides at the plate.

What chicken-s*** logic. They needed to get 6 outs to win and they brought in their most volatile and COLDEST reliever to face the opponent's best hitters. There is zero defense of this. Don't tell me that someone else could have also blown it so it doesn't matter anyway. As the Manager, all you can do is play your best players in the correct matchups when they need to be played. There is no scenario where Brendan Little was the correct choice. Like I posted earlier: they could have NOT used Hoffman last night in a 6-run blowout and instead brought him into the 8th inning tonight against the heart of the lineup which is what any Manager with a brain would do. You can then use Dominguez or Fisher in the 9th inning against Seattle's lesser hitters, or have Hoffman pitch as long as he can if he is shoving (which incidentally, he did last night). Just so you guys are aware: Hoffman has surrendered just 1 HR and 2 runs since August 31st. He has NOT been bad lately. And he is quite clearly much better than Little. This isn't even a decision.

This guy is either brain-dead, or trolling. Apparently you are not allowed to use your "closer" in any inning but the 9th. Apparently you can't use Lauer or Bassitt because they are "long men", so I assume their arms would fall off if they only pitched one inning? Apparently Bassitt has never seen a high-leverage situation. Its not like he hasn't been a successful starter for like ~7 seasons now, and therefore has obviously pithed tons of high-pressure innings. I'm fairly certain that he has pitched into the 8th inning before, by the way.

Jeff Hoffman has given up 2 runs in his last ~14 outings. He tore through the top of Seattle's lineup just last night. Here is a big-brained idea: don't use him in a 6 run blowout yesterday which was low leverage, and then you can correctly use him in the 8th inning tonight in a 1-run game.

So in a 1-run game, the only way to blow it is if you give up a HR? There is no other possible way for the opposing team to score on a pitcher who was running a ~6.00 ERA in his last 21 appearances?

You are too stupid to speak with seriously. wHo wAs goInG tO cLose? The 8th inning there was the most high leverage situation of the game. THAT IS WHERE YOU USE YOUR CLOSER. You figure out the 9th inning when you get there. What you DONT do is throw in a trash-can who hasn't thrown a strike in 3 straight months to face Seattle's best hitters. Little literally looked like he was going to cry before he even threw a single pitch. He also blew Game 1 in case you forgot. He is rattled and has been rattled all playoffs.

You go with your best available pitcher. Which is NOT Brendan Little and hasn't been for 2+ straight months now. Are you guys being serious? Every detail about that decision was atrocious: 1) Little has been empirically terrible recently. 2) Right handed hitters have been crushing Little recently. 3) Bringing him in flipped two switch-hitters to the to bat righty, both of whom are BETTER hitters as righties. So not only has Little been terrible against RHB as of late, but you also got the more dangerous versions of both Raleigh and Polanco.

What a load of crap. Little can not throw strikes. He has not been effective for several months now, because hitters have realized that they don't need to swing. His walk rate is astronomical. Who gives a s*** if he doesn't give up HR's? If he comes in and walks the bases you are still surrendering the run. In case you missed it, he walked the next two guys after giving up the HR. A guy who walks 7+ batters per 9 can NOT be a high leverage reliever. This is Little League baseball knowledge.

There is no analytics which suggest putting Little in there in that moment. None.

I mean, he was always a guy with a very extreme batted-ball profile (typically leading to low BABIP and low BA's) and higher strikeouts, and now his power has evaporated post PED suspension. That obviously isn't a good sign, as it definitely suggests that his one true tool (power) was inflated by PED's. He also has no defensive value. Unless he can somehow completely retool his swing/hitting profile, I don't see him as much of a prospect at this point.

Oh no, we've been exposed and we suck again! Mastert*rder was right all along! These dudes are grasping at straws at this point LMAO. Any other brilliant predictions, tips?

Its about the monetary value of the player himself. Clase is a reliever from a dirt-poor country. You think the MLB and the broadcasting companies (ESPN, etc.) make any money from the Dominican Republic, lol? Ohtani is a golden cow who's likeness rakes in god knows how many millions. There is a report that the Dodgers have already made ~$120M in one year off of new sponsorships in Japan. Another report claimed that the "Ohtani effect" boosted the team's value by ~23%, to $7.73 billion. If anyone thinks that ~30 billionaires (the MLB team owners) plus the billionaires that run the various broadcasting companies don't have enough combined might to tell the FBI to go away, then I'm not sure what world you think you're living in. Nobody gives a s*** about Emmanuel Clase. We've actually already seen this before back when Michael Jordan was allegedly gambling and "retired" before coming back. You think the NBA was going to punish him LMAO?

Ok, it looks like the Juan Sanchez hype train has officially started. BA is going to move him up to #7 on the Jays list:

Ty France post trade: 161 wRC+ Eugenio Suarez post trade: -1 wRC+ Just like everyone would have predicted hehehe.

All of those things would seem to be incredibly lucky if one were of the opinion that our front office is incredibly mid. Which is the opinion held by most Jays fans, who are by and large not very smart. Of course, the other possibility is the we actually have a good front office, and they had quietly been building depth, and made a few correct calls and changes to their process following last season which have paid off. None of this should really be surprising because I told you all years ago that Cleveland was very good at churning out random no-name players to their MLB roster, this was during the time when the general consensus was that Shapiro was brought in to "penny pinch for Rogers" lol (great call from the Toronto wiz-kid experts btw, totally nailed that one). Everything that you just listed are things that no one here would bat an eye about as being "lucky" if it were the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, or any other number of teams. But because its the Jays and "Shatkins", its inconceivable that they might actually know what they are doing. Even though they have fielded one of the higher winning percentages in the AL since ~2020, the fan opinion from moronic armchair experts is that we have a terrible front office....because they lost a few play-in Wild Card series. When the Braves won it all unexpectedly in 2021, it was deemed rightful because of course AA is a genius! Never mind the fact that 37 year old Charlie Morton was a 4.5 fWAR starter out of nowhere that year, Austin Riley went from two 0 fWAR seasons to a 5.1 fWAR season, they traded for Soler who was -1.2 fWAR with the Royals and then put up 1.2 fWAR with the Braves in just 55 games, Huascar Ynoa went from crap to passable starter, etc., etc. And this is really the most annoying angle to all of this: if another team is good, it is because it is somehow deserved. But if the Jays are good, well that is obviously just a fluke. You brought up Loperfido having a small-sample streak of performance which is obviously going to normalize. Is that "lucky"? Sure, to some degree...but we just saw Warming Bernabel in Colorado who has a 185 wRC+ in ~30 fewer plate appearances than Loperfido. So even the Rockies who have an insanely horrible front office can churn out a lucky small-sample stud. But lets go even further with Loperfido: he was one of 3 outfielders who they called up amidst Santander/Varsho being injured. Roden came up and was crap, and Clase came up and was crap. So 1 out of 3 guys have had small-sample success. Does it still look like some crazy good luck if they are batting 33% on the minor league OF callups this season? Most of their random minor league "where did this guy come from" success stories boil down to a numbers game...ie: they have amassed actual depth, and a few guys have popped from that group. Its not the front offices' fault that the majority of Jays fans are sad ****s and weren't aware that we actually had some promising players.

This series is an example of why run differential needs to be analyzed carefully and not just blindly followed. We have accumulated something like a +33-34 run differential in these three games alone. Earlier this season the Yankees amassed something like ~+90 run differential in a sample of 10 wins. This made up the absolute bulk of their +100+ run differential which had everyone convinced that they were the "best team in the AL East".

LMAO look at this guy. Yeah bud, the team has been super fortunate! 3 of the 4 big offseason moves (Santander, Gimenez, Scherzer) all got injured and missed significant time. Varsho came out extremely hot and then got injured and missed most of the season. Kirk, Vlad, Bo all hit like crap for the first month, as did Barger and Schneider. Jeff Hoffman has better K and BB rates than he did last season and a lower BABIP, but he's running a 4.56 ERA because his HR/9 randomly spiked to almost 2.0 out of nowhere (considerably worse than any of his 4 previous seasons). The only real "luck" has been Eric Lauer pitching above expectations. Springer's resurgence is a surprise, but again: this is a former star player who's "demise" happened much faster than anyone ever would have predicted. His season this year is simply counter-balance as far as I'm concerned.

Hey dipshit: MLB baseball is extremely random, hence why the LA Dodgers don't simply win every year despite having "the best team". Your argument boils down to "yeah well nobody expected them to be this good, so that means they actually aren't that good". Did anyone predict the Milwaukee Brewers to be this good? Did you have Cal Raleigh hitting at a ~60 HR pace this season on your bingo card LOL? Did you have the Braves as one of the worst teams in baseball? You are surprised that the Jays are good because of how they looked in 2024/2023, but those were actually seasons wherein almost everything went WRONG for the Jays. A lot of their success this season is simply things turning back around (ex: Kirk and Bichette reverting back to above-average hitters). I love the George Springer argument because it never seems to be made in reverse: he went from 140 wRC+ to 133 wRC+ in 2021/2022, and then completely collapsed to 103 wRC+ and 94 wRC+ overnight in 2023/2024. So if you believe that a historically elite hitter can just turn into a pumpkin overnight at age 33, why would it be so shocking to see him turn it back around and produce another great season at age 35? This isn't a random scrub player, it is a former All-Star who was always a great hitter. Its not even remotely inconceivable that he can still be a great hitter at his age, as plenty of previous players have already shown that it is is possible. For example, Justin Turner was a 138 wRC+ hitter at 35 for the Dodgers. So you have no problem believing that Springer out of nowhere can't hit at all. But its a complete fluke that he managed to find his swing again?

The upper levels of the system are absolutely not "extremely thin". This is pure nonsense. In the OF you have Shreck and Pinango posting elite metrics in AAA. Shreck is up to a 146 wRC+ in Buffalo with a .231 ISO. These guys provide legit depth alongside Loperfido. Shreck is actually hitting much better than Loperfido was in AAA. Josh Kasevich has been hurt all season and is back to rehab games now, but he is a near MLB ready SS who should be at least a backup MLB option because he is an above average defender who can make contact. The catcher that we just acquired for Wagner (Brandon Valenzuela) is now up to AAA and has the tools to at least serve as a backup MLB catcher. You have Manoah and Jake Bloss who are essentially MLB starter depth at this point. Bloss is recovering from TJ surgery, but he will be back next season - he was a borderline Top 100 prospect when we acquired him last season. Tiedemann is also an upper-level arm who is recovering from surgery and should at least become an interesting relief prospect due to his stuff. Adam Macko is up to AAA and is not doing well as a starter, but he has upside as a potential long-man out of the bullpen (this is likely where his future was always headed anyway). You've already seen guys like Lazaro Estrada who have MLB relief upside. In AA you have OF Victor Arias who isn't even 22 yet and is now up to a 156 wRC+ with elite exit velocities and power upside - this is a Top 10 prospect in our system and a big pop-up guy. Charles McAdoo has reestablished himself after a horrible start and is hitting for a 149 wRC+ since May 27th. You of course have Trey Yesavage blowing through AA, he will be up to AAA next season if not making his MLB debut.

Fun fact; Ty France actually has a higher xwOBA than Davis Schnieder.

But this argument makes doesn't make sense. If this is the first year where he has been good and he has years of control left, how do you conclude that this is his "peak value"? This is his first season as a full-time reliever, so its not like he has history of being a BAD reliever. There is no reason to believe that this isn't simply his new base-line of performance, with it being clearly possible that he actually improves over the next few years. By the way, I got curious and took a look at his game-logs from last season because he spent ~half the season as a starter and then switched permanently to the bullpen: He was a starter from the beginning of the season till August 14th: 6.14 ERA, 5.84 FIP, 2.21 HR/9, 7.85 K/9, 2.70 BB/9 in 36.2 IP He started relieving in September and immediately had 3 really bad outings: 25.31 ERA, 7.48 FIP, 3.38 HR/9, 10.13 K/9, 5.06 BB/9 in 5.1 IP Then he flipped a switch and closed the season with the following 5 relief outings: 2.35 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 1.17 HR/9, 12.91 K/9, 2.35 BB/9 in 7.2 IP Even in 2023 when he pitched some relief outings late in the season in September, he posted the following: 1.50 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 1.50 HR/9, 12.75 K/9, 0.75 BB/9 in 12.0 IP So really, his performance as a reliever has generally ALWAYS been strong or very good even before this season. His overall numbers just look bad in 2023 and 2024 because of his appearances as a starter. Sure the samples are small, but apart from those 5.1 innings last season immediately after they moved him to the bullpen (where I assume he was also playing with his stuff and pitch-mix) he had ~20 innings of elite reliever performance in 2023 and 2024.

Sure, but if Varland is a 1.5 WAR reliever and we are bad in some future season, then you can just sell high on him at the deadline and recoup a lot of the capital that we paid to get him. A reliever who is performing well and throws 98-100 will never not be valuable at the trade deadline, and he has so much control left that its hard to imagine that we won't have an opportunity to extract value back out of him at some point in the event that the team isn't competitive 2-3 seasons from now (or whenever). Of course that is dependent on him maintaining his performance, but that is why control is still valuable for a reliever. Look at Bednar with Pittsburgh: he completely fell apart last year, but because of the years of control they could build his value back up and still sell him for assets a year later. s***, its possible that Varland isn't even done improving and his value actually ends up increasing in future seasons.

I mean Emmanuel Clase doesn't really strike anyone out (by closer standards) and he has been the best reliever by fWAR since 2020. Robert Suarez is another guy who throws really hard but doesn't strike a lot of batters out. These definitely may be outliers, and the best relievers traditionally are striking out 10+ per 9, but its not unprecedented. Varland should be able to get away with less than sexy K-rates if he can maintain his elite ability to induce groundballs (95th percentile this season) and BB%. But even still, his success is so newfound that its hard to really conclude that he can't get even better and start missing more bats as they refine his pitch mix/approach. His velocity blew up and he has completely changed his pitch mix, but there may be more refining left to do. I think that Rojas is more of a control-over-command guy right now, so while his stuff should play out of the pen even right now, I don't think that there was much confidence that he wouldn't get hit around by MLB hitters. Its a small sample, but he has allowed 4 HR's in his two most recent outings in AA and AAA and has surrendered hits. He will be interesting to follow in AAA because it may turn out that he was just overpowering A+ hitters by throwing his pitches in the zone, but once you start facing better opposition you need to be able to throw quality strikes - not just strikes in order to not get hit around.