In a market as big as Toronto, I don’t think that’s true. Fans want to see a winner, and they will move on to the next “franchise player” when the time comes. I’m sure casuals will be upset if Vlad is traded, but if the team is good again in 2-3 years, I don’t see it having any long lasting impact. On the flip side, if the team has Vlad, even an extended Vlad, on a bunch of s***** teams trying to compete over the next 2 years, will attendance still be up? I don’t know about that. Unless fans really love the stadium renovations, I think interest will drop regardless. Jays saw a ~1 million fan drop from 2017 to 2018. The 2024 attendance is likely in part due to the renovations and in part due to the 2021-23 run, but next season’s attendance will be a real test.
With that said, if the Jays aren’t trading him now, and Rogers wants to keep him, then extend him. If you want to dangle a carrot at free agents, at least having an extended Vlad shows that another “star” will be there for a while.