glory

If Rogers is willing to commit a billion dollars to two players, then I'm down. It won't happen, but we can dream. At least extending Vlad is realistic. If the Jays outbid NYY/NYM/LAD for Soto, then Atkins or whoever is in charge this winter is a damn magician.

Anyone who thinks Vlad isn’t getting at least $300m if he’s putting up 2021 numbers is going to be disappointed.

I'm not sure what happened or is happening behind the scenes, but if Shapiro intended to give Click the job, then Click could have been running things at the deadline anyway with Atkins as more of a figurehead until the end of the season. Something similar probably happened during the JPR to AA transition in 2009, though I have no idea if it did or not.

My guess is he will, especially if he’s maintaining this level of performance. Obviously historically 1B are usually not given these massive contracts but I think Vlad will be one of the exceptions. Whether the Jays are the ones who give it to him is the bigger question. I would have been fine trading him this past deadline but since they didn’t and they intend to keep him for 2025, then I’m fully on the extend him train. I think I’m partially on that train because watching the Buffalo boys at the big league level and seeing just how average they look across the board makes me want to just extend any elite talent the team already has, and Vlad is the only one.

6 WAR Vlad would make the 2025 Hail Mary a bit more realistic at least, especially if coupled with a bounce back from Bo. With his track record we can’t assume he will still be this guy next season, but with free agency looming, motivation shouldn’t be an issue. This does feel a little like the Devers situation in Boston. He got a big extension the off season before his walk year after Bloom was getting roasted by fans/media for other decisions (mainly Betts).

Also a new GM would have to try to win with another GM’s core (coming off a last place finish) on a one year window. No chance a top candidate takes this job. Maybe the job becomes more attractive after 2025 if/when they concede to a bit of a retool/rebuild. Of course they could also squeak into a playoff spot and we have Shatkins for another half decade.

Even if he were having a typical Bo season, he wouldn’t be a long term candidate for me. Aside from the fact that he’s likely salivating to test free agency, he has a very risky offensive profile that won’t age well and he probably shouldn’t be a SS (certainly won’t be for much longer if his lower body injuries continue). Given what the front office’s goal is (winning in 2025), might as well keep Bichette and hope the allure of free agency leads to a big year. After that, let him be someone else’s unmovable contract.

Shapiro's deal ends after 2025. If he hasn't committed beyond that, then allowing a lame duck team president to appoint a new GM would be a bad decision by Rogers. At this rate it's probably better to just let Atkins have one more season, and if it fails, then dump both of them and start the rebuild/retool/whatever with new people. Unfortunately, this probably means John Schneider sticks around too. At this point I'd be pretty surprised if Vlad doesn't go to free agency. I can't imagine Shapiro if he has one foot out the door is going to prioritize giving him a 10-12 year deal, or whatever it will take to sign him. The focus will be entirely on maximizing 2025 wins.

John Schneider licking his chops over getting to bench a young player for Votto.

The FA 3B options look pretty dire again. Not a fan of overpaying Bregman for his age 31-beyond seasons, and a reunion with Chapman doesn't move the needle much given what he will be looking for. Only option that looks somewhat interesting is a bought out Yoan Moncada (no shot the White Sox pick up his option), as he's coming off an injury so he should take a one year deal but he's a few years removed from the last time he was really good. Otherwise at this rate I'd probably be fine with putting Vlad at 3B and living with the consequences. Horwitz can be at 1B and then there's like a half dozen 2B options on this team where you can hope on one of them sticking (DS, Orelvis, Wagner, Jimenez, Clement, etc).

I'll give them a pass for 2023 even without the benefit of hindsight because if I'm remembering correctly they signed KK first, and then made the Varsho trade later. Once they already signed KK it would have been useless to play him anywhere other than CF, so they just went with Varsho in LF for a season. If they left it at that and went a different direction in 2024, then I would have been fine with that. Putting Varsho in LF again in 2024 was insanity. If they traded for Luis Robert and put Varsho in LF, then fine, but running it back with KK when there was next to no shot he was repeating 2023's offensive output is completely on the org.

One thing I’ll say about the trade is that it’s not Varsho’s fault that they traded for an elite defensive CF with shoddy expected offensive numbers and put him in LF for 2 years and also batted him high in the order as if he were a middle of the order bat. If they had Varsho in CF for the past two years and someone like Teoscar (or whoever) in LF that could provide power/offense, then we wouldn’t be complaining about this deal as much. I think the trade was a “bust” in the sense that trading a top prospect for a LH Pillar is probably not the outcome the team was looking for (or needed) but from a pure value standpoint it’s probably a marginal loss. Really depends on what other offers they had for Moreno or the other catchers to know if any value was lost in a trade but we will never know.

He could be Fisher (most likely) or could be Teoscar (less likely), but I'm fine with giving him plate appearances to see what he has. He shouldn't be batting 2nd though. The Jays need to hit on some lottery tickets, especially if they are avoiding a real sell off and are doing the same thing they did in 2017-19. They got lucky with Teoscar. They need to get lucky again, and probably lucky more often because there isn't a Vlad/Bo in the system that they can dream on once the 2025 "window" is closed (well, closed in the FO's mind....chances are in reality it already closed after the last out in Minnesota last year).

Vlad having this type of season when the competitive window is closed/closing rather than in 2022-23 is annoying. Fun to watch either way.

I think letting Vlad get to free agency is probably the best play here if they are that far apart in extension talks. Vlad will either test the market and realize he’s not as valuable as he thinks, which would make a reunion with the Jays more realistic, or he will get the money he wants from AJ Preller or Arte Moreno or whoever, and the Jays move on. You can’t go back in time and trade him a week ago and they won’t be trading him in the winter so this is what you’re left with. Well that or a deadline deal next July, which is also possible.

Yeah this seems like a pretty realistic outcome. The Jays will have a s*** ton of financial wiggle room after 2025 so whatever happens in 2025 (playoff team or sellers at the deadline) they will definitely reinvest that winter. Naylor isn't great but should be reasonably priced and is a good hitter. The fact that they can wrap the flag around him for marketing probably helps too.

$2m for a fat DH who they played like once a week for 2 months. If they pay the tax in 2024 when they'll have one of the worst teams in baseball and had tradeable assets that could have easily got them under, then heads have to roll. That's borderline incompetence.

Hopefully he has some defensive versatility. I don't expect the bat to be good enough at the big league level to start but might have value as a utility player who covers a bunch of positions.

If they want to contend in 2025 but still maximize trade assets and add to the farm system, then they'll need to get a bit creative with the roster. Something like trading Bichette for the best package of prospects they can get and then signing Adames. In that scenario they would have (hopefully) added at least one intriguing prospect to the farm system while not hurting the big league roster at all (if 2024 Bo is a sign of things to come then Adames over him is actually a massive upgrade). You can make an argument that holding on to Green and Bassitt was actually the smart play from a potential return standpoint. If both of those guys were rentals this past deadline, then they would have had more value than they did in reality having $10.5m and $21m respectively owed to them the following season. That's full FA freight on two older pitchers which likely lessened their trade value. That won't apply in July 2025. The IKF trade is exactly what they should be doing. They sold high on a marginal asset when he was still controllable and got an interesting prospect out of it. Stuff like that will add up. I really don't know what the right answer is. This is a very poor situation for a team to be in when everything is screaming for a rebuild but it's impossible to do for business reasons. They'll have to think outside the box and find a way to balance winning with stocking the farm system. Making matters worse, if they don't figure out why their player development sucks so much, then even if they rebuild it's not going to cure their problems.

I don't know if McAdoo will turn into anything, but it's a great return for IKF.

There's no doubt in my mind that Bichette will be super motivated in 2025. Seems like he's been wanting to test free agency for years now. The question isn't motivation, it's whether his body and/or skillset (low BB/.340 BABIP) will hold up. I would guess yes, but I wouldn't be too confident with that prediction. Either way, at this point if you want to maximize 2025 wins then you pretty much have to keep Bo and hope he has one more 4 WAR season in him. Then either trade him at the deadline or lose him to free agency if the team happens to contend. This off season will be very telling. Is Shapiro going to go scorched earth to try to get a playoff team (which will mean spending huge in free agency) or will it be some variation of what we saw in 2018 and 2024 where they go for the best 1 year deals they can find and then pivot in case things go wrong? The latter would be something he might do if he was going to stick around for a bit.

Yeah Rogers has to have some reservations at this point, though I'm sure Shapiro can talk them into it, especially if Vlad isn't signed to an extension. The only way to maximize (or at least attempt to maximize) what's left of this group is to spend big. If Rogers isn't willing to go into the 2nd tax threshold then they might as well sell in the off season. With that said, Soto is a pipe dream. They would be competing with the Yankees who are already going to make the playoffs with Soto on the roster (so there's familiarity there), in addition to the Mets who look like they might make the playoffs this year + have Steve Cohen, and I'm sure the Dodgers will take a run at him as well with $500m in deferred payments somewhere in there. No chance the Jays coming off a miserable season are going to compete with that unless they blow the other offers out the water, which won't happen. If they make a big splash anywhere, then I think it's probably Bregman, although not sure that's the best idea given his age and performance this season. Regardless he's the best combination of filling a big need and a realistic signing (I can't imagine the market for him will be crazy high).

Barger 2-2 with a HR and double so far. Glad they traded IKF. Give Barger a look at 3B and see if he's capable there.

Well, Kay and SWR were acquired for Stroman (at age 28) who had a year and a half of control left and a 3 WAR in 124 innings at the time of the deal. The Jays weren't dealing anyone like that this deadline. If they were, then I'm guessing the return would have dwarfed the Stroman return from 2019 based on the market. The better comparable is Drury/McKinney vs what Kikuchi got; one was considered a heist, and it wasn't the Happ deal. That doesn't mean Bloss, Loperfido, and Wagner will pan out, they may all stink, but at the time of the trade it's a better return. As far as the rest of the deals, it's all subjective and since most prospects will fail or cease to be heard from again, it's pointless to debate them individually, but I'd easily take this deadline over 2018-19. I do think Atkins did really well in 2017 though, as Teoscar (even without hindsight) was a great return for Liriano who was a rental and awful that season.

- Either 1 high end SP or 2 SP's that are #3/4 caliber. I don't want to trust Yariel as one of the 5 starters out the gate, but I'd be fine with him as #5 SP if they signed someone like Burnes. - A 3B, Catcher, and DH. I'd be fine with using internal options for LF (Loperfido, Clase, DS, Barger, etc). - An entire bullpen aside from Green and Romano assuming he's healthy. Non tender Swanson. It's a long shot. If Vlad and Bo have monster FA years to cash in at the end of the season then the odds improve, but they can't get away with a KK/Turner/IKF master class type of off season they had this year. They need to go big and have it pan out right away. Not really sure where they go. A lot depends on who is calling the shots. As mentioned you kinda need to figure out what you want to do with Shapiro before you let him proceed with an off season that is going to dictate the course of the next few years. If I had to predict, then I'd say they extend Shapiro, reassign Atkins, and promote someone (Click) to take over. Maybe that's already been done since this past trade deadline was a lot better than what Atkins usually does as a seller.