glory

Yeah, Heyman is right, but unless he provided further context, it seemed like a random thing to Tweet. Was it the decision to keep Francis in the game when he was throwing 89 mph instead of pulling him earlier despite the no hitter? Was it the defense? The bullpen? All of it? I didn't watch the game so not sure if anything specific happened to cause Heyman to say that. I mean in general, saying the Jays suck is kinda common sense at this point. I think 2024 has exposed how bad the player development is. Previous years they could mask it with smart free agent decisions, but they failed miserably on that end this year (KK, Turner, Green extension, Vogelbach, etc), and now that they have an opportunity to play the young talent, you see just how far away most of them are from being impact players. Horwitz has the best shot at it but he's a platoon 1B so that's going to limit the amount of value he could provide. We talk about this FO's inability to develop pitching, but it's much greater on the RP side. Like how do you not have a single interesting pen option when cycling through the waiver wire and having the ability to call up practically anyone in the farm system who looks semi decent and not doing it? Francis developing the way he has is probably a semi miracle at this point.

Yimi Garcia put on the 60 day IL with elbow issues.

I recall one of the criticisms Yankees fans had with Green was he sucked in high leverage situations. I never looked at the numbers but I believe it.

The Jays might be an org that lets a starter throw 130 to get a no hitter.

Yeah this should be his last inning regardless of result. He looks gassed.

IKF in his prior 3 seasons had wRC+ of 84, 84, and 79 respectively. No power and expected numbers stunk. Keep in mind they signed him not to be a utility IF, but to start at 3B full time. The outcome was good in hindsight, so if you want to call it a win for Atkins then that's fair, but the original signing was pretty bad. Thankfully they traded him before he could revert back to the player he's always been.

2024: .250/.346/.295 (.641 OPS), 130 PA (AAA) 2024: .193/.266/.246 (.511 OPS), 64 PA (MLB) 2023: .258/.350/.342 (.691 OPS), 143 PA 2022: .223/.308/.372 (.681 OPS), 107 PA Unless he makes some adjustments, looks like he's a platoon bat.

IKF was not a solid signing. It turned out very well, getting a 2 WAR and above average offense from him in half a season and then trading him for an interesting prospect at the deadline, but an 80 wRC+ utility IF getting $15m guaranteed with the intention of starting him at 3B on a team that already lacked offense was simply not good. Though I will give them credit for selling at the absolute perfect time. Atkins hasn't done that often with big league talent in his tenure.

If the Jays are going to lose, then what we are seeing is probably the best case scenario. The starters for the most part have been good, and the offense has gotten considerably better post trade deadline. If the Jays are losing because a bunch of s***** relievers who won't be around much longer are blowing games, or because a backup catcher who will never touch a big league field again after the Jays release him is single handedly losing a close game, then no issues with me at all. If the Jays were losing because the young players looked like s*** and the starters were awful, then it would be a different discussion.

Yeah it depends on what's the most realistic way to add wins. Seems like 3B will be a lot harder to fill externally, and they don't have a realistic internal option that you'd be comfortable banking on in 2025. If I had to guess I think they'll stick with Vlad at 1B and Horwitz at DH. Third base will be filled externally somehow. Only serious FA option would be Bregman and I don't think the Jays, even in a desperate state, would want to pay that price. If they were serious about Vlad at 3B then I think they would have tried it more than they have so far since they have nothing to play for.

I wouldn't mind Vladdy at 3B. Good chance he's not good there but the alternatives internally are Barger who aside from a great arm seems like a butcher there, Clement and his 2% BB rate, or Orelvis who based on some scouting reports is a butcher everywhere. The best FA available is Bregman who is going to want a massive contract into his late 30's. Vlad wants to play 3B and his playing for a "best player in baseball" type of contract. He'll be super motivated. The 2025 season is a hail mary attempt anyway. Might as well be a little creative. I don't think Horwitz at 2B is something the team wants to try. Since Wagner was acquired they've put Horwitz there very seldomly. I think he's more likely to be the DH/1B next season who covers 2B if necessary. I just don't see how they fill 3B otherwise. Clement should be used as a bench player (he's basically IKF from a value standpoint). Maybe there's a trade candidate out there but I don't see an obvious one.

If I'm not mistaken, while Bo's 2025 salary is $16.5m, his CBT hit is only a little over $11m. The Jays want to win in 2025, Bo has a 4 WAR ceiling, and he's coming off a down year. Combine all those factors, and it does make more sense to hold on to him at this point, unless another team is willing to give up value for him, and I say that as someone who wants the Jays to move on from him. He will be motivated to have a big 2025. The issue is whether his health and/or skill set is what caused his down 2024 season, or whether it was just one of those bad years.

I’d be fine with Vlad on a monster FA deal but no thanks on Bichette beyond 2025. That quote from Bo is better than if he said the opposite though, so doesn’t hurt.

Since the trade deadline he's played 2B just 4 times, with the last time being 8/18. With Wagner's emergence and the depth they have there, it's possible they are fine with him at 1B/DH now. He can still play 2B occasionally so it adds to his versatility. The question if he is going to more in the 1B/DH role is whether the power can materialize.

Francis has only had a handful of starts where he's looked great, and Yariel has been up and down (expected given his lack of pitching over the years). Not sure I'd say both are clearly good enough for the rotation, at least good enough to where they feel comfortable not signing anyone else. It's a much safer (and likely better) approach to have 1 in the rotation and 1 in the pen as long as the SP they sign is better than at least one of the top 3 (Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt), preferably better than 2. Also, looking at the org, it's increasingly likely that they need a SP more than offense for beyond 2025 as well. Aside from Francis/Yariel being long term question marks, Bassitt is a FA after 2025, and Gausman after 2026. Their best pitching prospect is probably Bloss at this point and he likely profiles as a bottom of the rotation SP. Tiedemann is likely a RP. Manoah is a non factor until 2026 (and his last full season before injury was a disaster). A long term deal for a SP who you can reasonably hope to be a 2-3 starter over the next few years is probably necessary.

Yeah I thought the Jays should have extended Jansen, but turns out they were smart not to. Would it surprise me if he bounced back with the bat next season? Not at all, so if his market is non existent and he's willing to sign a cheap short term year deal, then go for it. If it's something larger than that, then not sure the Jays can afford to allocate that much to a backup/split catcher when they have a bunch of other needs and a one year window. A trade for a controllable catcher that is blocked on another team would be ideal since Kirk only has 2 years of control left and I can't name a catcher in the Jays system off the top of my head, so it doesn't look like help is on the way any time soon.

If Manny and Ortiz worked, then Vlad/Soto would as well. I’d have no issues with those two on the roster for the next 10 years, especially with the shape of the farm system (improved depth but lacking real impact). Soto’s offensive profile is practically perfect from a long term risk standpoint, and if 2024 Vlad is for real, then his is in the same category (vs someone like Bo whose profile has red flags all over it long term even before 2024’s numbers).

Depends on what the front office’s objective is. If their jobs are on the line and they want to contend then there’s no chance they enter 2025 with the same rotation. If their jobs are safe and they know they have to rebuild, but want to pretend to try in 2025 before an expected sell off mid season, then maybe they’d be fine with taking a chance on Francis/Yariel at 4/5 and just signing depth SPs like Stripling or something as a fall back. I can’t imagine Atkins’ job is safe with Shapiro entering next season as a lame duck, so I think they sign a SP. Even if it’s a Bassitt style short term deal for someone like Eovaldi, they need a front or mid rotation option in addition to what they already have.

Boras signing that deal before testing free agency means that either Chapman didn't want to hit free agency again or Boras knew no other team was going to offer that. Maybe both. As mentioned, good for Chapman to maximize his earnings, but glad another team gave him that deal. That leaves Bregman or a buy low on Moncada as the only real 3B options in free agency. Hopefully Barger's bat improving is legit and he can cover 3B. That's probably the team's best hope for next season as far as 3B is concerned.

Close to a billion. Vlad is probably looking at $350-400M to forgo free agency, and the Jays would have to outbid Steve Cohen for Soto, so that’s going to be a ridiculous figure. I’d have no issues with it. The Jays offensively are well suited to do it because they have a bunch of guys in the 1-2 WAR talent range making $750k for the next few years (Martinez, Jimenez, Barger, Horwitz, Wagner, DS, soon Roden). The tough part will be figuring out the pitching situation, but if they were to sign Soto then the budget would have to adjust accordingly. Pipe dream but from the sounds of it Soto is in it for the money over location, so just outbid Cohen, the Yankees, Dodgers, Nats, etc. Easy.

Barring injury, I think #4/5 starter is most realistic, and that would still be found money for the team. Anything above that would be amazing, though less likely.

Problem with trading Bassitt at the deadline was that another team would have been on the hook for $21m in 2025. Not sure he would be valued at that price point by another team. Green falls under the same criteria. There's not much (if any) surplus value in their 2025 salaries. They are far more likely to fetch something in July 2025 if the Jays are out of it.

I'd have to look it up, but I'm pretty sure the 2024 Orioles look like the most diverse team in baseball compared to the JP Ricciardi Blue Jays.

Not signing a SP and expecting to even cosplay as a contender next season would be a mistake. The current rotation/depth over 162 in 2025 would get eaten alive. A lot of things have to go right and that's not even factoring health. They have to sign someone and push one of Yariel/Francis to the pen. If it's Snell, then so be it, but they need someone preferably at #3 level or better.

Anyone who doesn't say Soto is crazy. It's a huge long shot, probably not even worth dreaming about, but if you want to make a ridiculous overpay on anyone, Soto is the guy. They'd have to extend Vlad though for that to even have a glimmer of hope. Selling Soto on playing next to another Dominican star player who is basically the same age would be one of the few selling points they have. Judge will be 33 next season, and Lindor 31. Soto is 5 months older than Vlad. Defer money, do what you have to do, but that's the player to get. More realistically, something like Eovaldi and Santander or Walker would probably be fair. Term shouldn't be that long due to age, and there's 3 WAR potential there for each of them. There are enough warts on Tier 2/3 to have some pause on signing them, either due to the years they'd want, the money, or both.