glory

Yeah I think 8/200 is fine. He's already getting $20m coming off a 1 WAR season, and will likely get at least $25m in 2025 via arbitration, so that type of contract isn't completely unreasonable from the Jays standpoint given his age/upside. If Vlad is looking for a higher AAV or more total dollars, then that's where it gets complicated.

The Jays outbidding the Yankees and Steve Cohen is a pipe dream.

Plus, I'm not sure how good of a prospect Jimenez really is, but the fact that they have a SS in the minors with a 140 wRC+ and allegedly good defense (who also needs to be on the 26 man roster next season as he's out of options after 2024) should make trading Bichette a bit easier. Worst case they can stick IKF there for a year (and/or Clement if they remember he exists) as they reassess the position if playing a prospect terrifies them as much as it has over the past 12 months. I'm terrified of Atkins making that trade, but if his hands are more tied now due to his impending departure (best case), then someone else within the org (or Shapiro himself) can take the lead on a trade of that magnitude. If they wait until the winter, then there's a strong chance Bo will be starting SS to start 2025.

The only issue with trading him in the winter is that Adames and Kim are free agents. A team would have to weigh giving up prospects for 1 year of Bo versus just signing a 3+ WAR SS with better defense and losing nothing. That’s why I said before trading Bo prior to 2024 when the best FA SS was a washed Tim Anderson would have made more sense but whatever. I think the deadline is the time to move him. Take the best offer you can get.

He traded a year and a half of Stroman (who was performing really well at the time) for Anthony Kay plus an 18 year old pitcher. I’m legit terrified of what he’d get for Vlad and Bo.

Bo with a career 5.5 BB% and .340 BABIP. When he falls off, he'll never be able to get back up.

Don Mattingly definitely swears by this machine.

If he wants $200m, then over 8-9 years wouldn't be a terrible gamble, IMO. Lower would be better obviously. He's still only 25 with elite batted ball data. A late career Encarnacion type of breakout wouldn't surprise me at all (as long as Mattingly isn't in whichever org Vlad is in during that time). It would definitely be a risk because you don't know if Vlad is fixable or whether this is what he is, but the Jays lack impact talent everywhere in the org, and he's the only one with that upside. I think I'd take that risk. Bichette can kick rocks, though. Let his Tim Anderson phase happen somewhere else.

I'm actually starting to believe he will be extended this winter regardless of who the GM is. Rogers is going to want a "face of the franchise" over the long haul (nothing in the minors currently can come close to that) and Vlad is a 130 wRC+ bat with Luis Arraez's skill set, so there is a massive ceiling on him still if the team replaces their hitting/preparation coaches and hires somebody who could unlock it. Vlad presents far more value to the Jays than he does in a trade, so he's a very risky player to move off from even ignoring the marketing aspect.

Springer was signed post Covid season, so I think the Jays and Padres might have been the only teams actually spending money at the time. Cohen had just taken over as Mets owner so while they could have signed Springer they opted to trade for Lindor instead (right call). Springer was definitely an overpay even at the time. The sixth year was likely the clincher. I think Gausman allegedly had a higher offer from the Mets but chose the Jays, so he might be the only player who looked at situation out of the names listed.

I recall reading a blurb from Baseball America prior to the season stating that Addison Barger intentionally focused on contact instead of launch angle in 2023, so his contact rates improved significantly but he was hitting line drives and GB's instead of home runs (he hit 26 HR's between 3 levels in 2022 and then 9 in 2023). I'm not a hitting expert by any means, but when I read that I thought why would you take someone that hits the ball really hard and in the air, and try to get him to hit the ball in the air less? Seems like the Guardians took the opposite approach with Kwan, wanting more damage (sorry Donnie) instead of contact, and it has worked, but then again Kwan was so good at making contact that even if his contact ability regressed a little bit it likely wouldn't have been that drastic. The fact that it improved even with the added power is remarkable. Really shows how complicated hitting is.

Yeah whether it's Atkins making the decisions or Shapiro, the trade deadline will likely be used to find as many potential 2025 contributors as they can in order to compete next season. The 2017 deadline is an example of that with Teoscar ready for the bigs but blocked in Houston, and Pannone who looked ready for a AAA promotion when he was acquired. This FO doesn't benefit from acquiring low minors lotto tickets as it's possible the current structure won't even be around by 2026 (depends on what happens with Shapiro). They will look at 2024 as a down year and try again in 2025. It's just a matter of who will be the one making those decisions. Hopefully it's not Atkins. So yeah, look at some AAA rosters for contenders/buyers at the deadline, find guys who are blocked, and you'll see potential Blue Jays in there.

This is honestly the most positive development of the season so far. They can't put lipstick on a pig. They stink and it's clear as day. If they were flirting with .500 with a -60 run differential by mid July, the FO could have easily gotten delusional, but that ain't happening now.

The only reason to keep the core group (aside from wanting to sell tickets in hopes that the team contends) is if you believe a new hitting coach/philosophy/preparation can make the existing talent better. Maybe that could work, maybe it won't. It's a risk with only a year of control left on Vlad/Bo. Honestly, that Mattingly quote about "damage is a scary word" has been brought up before, but the followup to that was even scarier: “I don’t really see us as a huge power club. But we do have a chance for, I think, four or five guys hitting 20 or above. That would be good for us.” They literally have a 25 year old with an elite statcast page that hit 80 home runs in 2021-22, but as soon as Donnie came on board, now he maybe, possibly, if he's lucky, could get to 20 or above. Even though he drills everything into the ground at an even higher rate than before, and his ability to hit a 4SFB suddenly disappeared out of thin air. Something isn't right. So between that and Bo having a down year, you could certainly argue that bringing them back for one more try with a new coaching staff would be more logical than having Atkins trade them for 42 years of control on the most mid prospects imaginable.

What makes matters more difficult as far as the GM situation is that Shapiro himself is a FA after 2025. Do you really want him hiring the next GM if he's gone in a year? Click is already in house so I guess they can go that route, but Chaim Bloom should be a cautionary tale for taking someone from the Rays org and expecting them to be great. Click's sample size in Houston wasn't big enough to really judge as their core was already in place when he took over. The only thing I remember about Click in Houston is he allegedly wanted to trade Urquidy for 2 months of Willson Contreras at the 2022 deadline and was vetoed by either Baker or ownership (or both). They ended up winning the WS anyway. I have no issues with waiting until the winter for the big decisions (Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc) to be made by the new GM. With Bo it might be the smart thing to do given how bad he's been, and Gausman will still have 2 years of control left in the winter so as long as he finishes reasonably well he should still have value. It's Vlad that is more complicated.

Yeah, at the minimum they have to get rid of Atkins, Schneider, Guillermo, Mattingly, and Shane Farrell. Ideally just get rid of Shapiro and the new president will take care of the rest.

Springer now has a 65 wRC+ in 295 PA this season. I'm kinda curious how low that wRC+ can go. Just get him to 600 PA and let's make some history.

The success the Guardians have had since Shapiro left will give me some hope. Thankfully the contract picture other than Berrios' deal isn't bad post 2026, so a new GM can have a clean slate, but Shapiro has to go as well.

Springer in the lineup everyday, Mayza in high leverage spots....this team has to be tanking, right?

Springer hitting like Rey Ordonez for 600 plate appearances sounds fun.

Yeah I think the defense is the key. If he's a legit above average SS defensively, then you have to consider trading Bo and giving Jimenez 2 months of big league time to end the season. According to Savant's minor league data, his average EV and hard hit % is right in line with Orelvis' on the season. It's hard to get a sense of what AAA numbers mean nowadays, but I don't think Jimenez is Espinal, at least I wouldn't say that yet.

Jimenez's xwOBA is right in line with his wOBA, so he's not fluking into anything. If his defense at SS is above average or better, then I think he's a real prospect, and might be the best one in the system (which isn't saying much but still).

The 2021 team had a 99-63 pythWL, and the 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL. They were doing just fine even with the lack of playoff success. In game 2 of the Wild Card round, the Jays were up 8-1 and had to get a replacement in LF (I think Merrifield had to leave the game but my memory is fuzzy there). There was a guy on the bench whose only skill was playing defense (JBJ), but at that point, with a 7 run lead just put your best defender in the game and hold it. Instead, they put Tapia into the game (someone who they non tendered like 5 minutes after the season ended) and he misplayed at least 1-2 balls that would have potentially saved the game for the Jays if a competent defender was out there. That wasn't due to an organizational weakness with defense, it was due to a manager not knowing how to manage (never mind Mayza facing Santana who kills LHP). They didn't need to deviate from what they were doing to the degree in which they did. Focusing on defense in 2023 wasn't the best decision, but whatever, they did it. The biggest issue as mentioned was doing the exact same thing in 2024 when it took completely unsustainable pitcher health/performance to succeed with that approach in 2023.

The Jays could trade Vlad, Bo, Gausman, Berrios (if they can), Varsho, etc, and use that saved money + the prospect capital they get back to field as competitive a team as they can. It doesn't have to be an Orioles style tanking. It doesn't have to be a tanking at all. Just maximize the returns on the existing players who won't be around the next time this team is actually good. Doing that should, in theory, help get the team to the next competitive window a lot sooner. They'd have to accept that 2025 will be pretty grim though, which I'm not sure ownership would want.

Only 6 teams have worse run differentials than the Jays do: White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, A's, Angels, and Rays. That's 5 god awful teams, and a good team that has lost a lot of players due to injury/legal issues (and they'll still finish better than the Jays in all likelihood). Standing pat and hoping the team gets hot down the stretch would be an insane expectation based on what we have seen so far. The fact that they are 7 games back of a playoff spot with about 100 teams to pass makes it even worse. The team has one of the worst farm systems in the league, a tax paying big league roster that stinks, and like 80% of the roster is not controlled beyond 2025 or 2026. The only reason you (and frankly me too) are afraid of a Jacob Waguespack, Corey Copping, and Billy McKinney trade deadline is because of the guy who would be making the deals. So if your argument is stand pat so that Atkins can't trade Jansen for a 26 year old starter in AA with a 92 MPH fastball, then I could see the logic in that. But sometimes you have to see a team for what it is, and if you're not trading Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc, now, then you're guaranteeing the asset being diminished/wasted by waiting a year. We have seen how this story ends. The spoilers are the 2017-18 seasons.