glory

Agreed on the payroll part but being “gifted Vlad” is probably a bit misleading. Vlad has been on the team for six seasons. Two of them were elite (2021, 2024). Two of them were replacement level quality (2019-20). One was very good but not elite (2022). One was a 1 WAR season (2023). If Shatkins was gifted Juan Soto then that would have been a different story, but in the 2 years the Jays made the non-Covid playoffs, Vlad’s combined WAR in those two seasons was below 5.0. He simply hasn’t been a great player enough times. They won because of moves around him most of the years he has been under team control. The 2023 team in particular almost won 90 games with Vlad as a 1.3 WAR player. Atkins deserves every criticism he gets but I think those 2020-23 teams were largely on the backs of players Atkins acquired, not the ones he inherited. That comes down to your other point, which was money/payroll. Without that, this team would have wasted way more of the Vlad/Bo years.

Shapiro is clearly not a good executive if he’s making the exact same mistake twice within 8 years and expecting different results. If he’s cunning enough to get Rogers to spend into the luxury tax then he should be able to convince them to cut bait one year early rather than wait until the bottom falls out. In 2017-18 at least the team was coming off their most memorable run in 20+ years. This current run had better regular season results over a 3-4 year stretch but fans are not going to be clamoring for 2021-23 nostalgia any time soon. If Vlad can’t be extended, then make the damn trade and move forward.

I would have taken Torres at 1/15 over Gimenez at 5/100 (close to it) but obviously this FO has a specific skillset that they like, and Torres isn’t it. I think Bregman might be a real possibility now. I don’t see many other options for him unless the Tigers are still on the market for a 3B, which they might be.

With the Jays needing a DH, this was exactly the type of move they should have been making. Either he still sucks or you catch lightning in a bottle, but either way it's no risk. Maybe they are saving that for Moncada.

Vlad is only 25 and is already one of the worst baserunners and defensive players in the league. If he had Soto's offensive track record then it would have been more justifiable, but he doesn't, and $400-500M for just his bat without that track record is incredibly risky. I can understand the hesitation. Unfortunately this FO has been awful with player development. If they had prospects ready to come up and compensate for losing Vlad then it would have been easier to cut bait. On top of that they don't want to trade him, either because of ownership or because of their own agenda to maximize 2025 wins for job security (probably both), so they won't even sell high in a trade.

If you thought the Jays under Ash and JP had more hope than a team that was seen (in hindsight wrongly) to be a possible World Series contender during this run (2022 in particular), then we will have to agree to disagree. Actual results favor Atkins, and pre-season hype (even though they never lived up to it) goes to Atkins, too. I mean, I'm not going to tell you that you were wrong to feel more hopeful during Ash/JP's time, if that's how you felt then that's fine, but objectively, the results don't match that feeling.

I want Shatkins gone so it pains me to have to defend them here, but romanticizing Gord Ash and JP Ricciardi’s time, especially in contrast to 2020-24, is insane. The 2021 team won 91 games and finished 4th place in their own division. The 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL. The 2023 was the most frustrating offensive performance I’ve seen on a good team and they still won 89 games in a season where 14 MLB players alone had a higher WAR than Vlad and Bo combined. Yes they had to spend to compensate for their weaknesses, but whatever. They weren’t trading a borderline HOF with cash attached for Robert Person, or letting what should have been a franchise cornerstone go and reallocating that money to Erik Hanson, or replacing one of the greatest hitters in franchise history with the corpse of Corey Koskie. They’ve by all accounts been in on major free agents, and this FO is the only one that has ever gotten Rogers to spend like they should be spending. I get wanting Shatkins gone, I’m in the same boat, they have overstayed their welcome and change is needed, but longing for the days of Ash and JP is a step too far.

Yeah realistically if they acquired Naylor then they likely had to DH one of them regularly, or put Vlad at 3B full time, and they probably didn’t want to do either of those things. Naylor is more realistic as Vlad’s replacement next year if he leaves. The Jays are either legitimately in on Burnes or are waiting out the Teo/Tony markets because as more backup options start going elsewhere it leaves them in a very difficult spot.

I have no idea who the FO is going to end up getting, which is kinda terrifying after last winter. Players are signing/getting traded elsewhere, and the logical options are starting to shrink.

Yeah I don't see a clear path for Bregman at this point. Houston always seemed like his most likely spot. Cross them off. The Yankees won't be spending that much on him. The Cubs just dumped Bellinger's contract likely to save money for a Tucker extension so I don't think they would be in. Maybe Boston? Detroit? I think whoever signs Bregman will regret it, so I hope it's not the Jays, but it's possible his market craters pretty quickly (if it hasn't already).

Arenado was never going to waive his NTC to play in Toronto, but kinda surprised he said no to the Astros. He must have only a few specific teams in mind. I think it's becoming increasingly likely that the Jays 3B next season is going to come internally (Clement, Barger, Orelvis, Vlad occasionally). Maybe they do a buy low deal with Moncada but otherwise I don't see many options. The only Gimenez type of deal (where there's an overpaid 3B that another team would be looking to dump) that I can think of is Ke'Bryan Hayes, which fits Atkins' MO (controllable, great defense, s***** offense) but I'm assuming even Atkins would draw a line on how many defense-first players he can have at a time.

I’m wondering what Teo’s market actually is at this point. The Yankees are likely out on him, and the Dodgers don’t need him. You would think that opens things up for the Jays but Atkins has spent 2 years loading up on defense and guys who don’t strike out, which Teo is basically the opposite of (and he was the first player traded post-2022 to usher in this new and exciting run prevention model they’ve had since). I’d actually be somewhat surprised if he signs with the Jays factoring all that in, but maybe Atkins realizes he has all the defense he can get and now needs to bend a bit to add power.

Next Jays pickup has to be Naylor because the Guardians might be the only team to pity Atkins enough to actually deal with him.

Obviously Bo is a better player than Torres (assuming he's healthy) but if you can get decent value for Bo in a trade, move Gimenez to SS, and then sign Torres on a short term deal for 2B, then that would be a tidy retool type of move. Largely depends on what the return for Bichette would be.

It certainly appears that way. The last big FA (top 10 FA in the class) they signed was Gausman and that was 3 years ago when Vlad/Bo had 4 years of control left and the team was coming off 91 wins. Now the only carrot they can dangle at FA's is money, but big time FA's (ex. Burnes) will be able to get money anywhere so it probably isn't that big of a difference maker given the position the Jays are in. Trades, more specifically absorbing salary that another team wants to dump, might be their best way of getting a difference making talent.

Yeah if all Teo is looking for is 3 years between $70-75m, then the Jays should be all over that. The years mitigate a lot of the decline risk, and the AAV is higher due to the lack of years, which is a fair trade off. My guess is the rumor is BS and he’s probably looking for a 4th year.

Hell the Jays spending in free agency (and trade) is the only reason the team was as good as it was.

If the Marlins are selling, then the Jays should look into Jesus Sanchez. There's swing and miss there, so Atkins would probably vomit at the thought of acquiring him, but otherwise a lot of red on the statcast page. Could be a tweak away from being good (though the Jays being able to give him that tweak might be far fetched).

Baerga's batting like .120 with rumors, but hopefully this is one of the few times he knocks one out of the park.

Unless I'm forgetting someone, the Astros don't have a RF. Guessing this puts them in the Teo/Tony market with the Jays and others.

If this happens, then Bellinger to the Yankees is likely the next step.

Their first big move this off season was as much a 2026-beyond move as it was a 2025 upgrade, as Gimenez is likely the starting SS from 2026-onwards. So far Atkins has not been operating in a way that dictates his job is on the line. Even if they end up giving Burnes $250m, it's a move that impacts future teams just as much as 2025 since Bassitt would need to be replaced after this season, and the Jays aren't exactly a pitching factory when it comes to development. I think we will know if Atkins is more "2014-15 AA" if he overpays Santander. That seems like purely a 2025 move with limited upside in future seasons. Gimenez you could at least envision being a 3 WAR SS moving forward, with potential for more if his bat is around league average. As you said I don't think either ownership or the FO wants to rebuild, but so far they haven't gone too deep the other way either. It would help if we knew what Shapiro's long term future with the club actually is. My guess is Atkins is more in danger of losing his job than Shapiro is, but hard to get a read one way or the other given what has happened so far. They haven't traded any of their top prospects (yet) or made a short term "f the future" signing. They basically made a Varsho 2.0 trade and a simple RP signing. I guess it's possible they truly believe this approach is going to work as they haven't really deviated from what they did in 2023 and 2024.

Yeah, Teo signed for 1/23.5 last season (granted, deferred AAV is lower than that), and then proceeded to have a much better season in 2024. I think it will take at least $25m AAV to sign him. That's probably why the Dodgers are balking. They don't need him that much. The Jays do. Whether Atkins would go 4/100 is anyone's guess, but if the alternative is f'n Santander on a 5-6 year deal, then give Teo whatever the hell he wants for 4 years.

I don’t think this has anything to do with Boras. X/Twitter has become a cesspool of randoms who want to troll by acting like they have sources. If they happen to guess right once then they suddenly gain credibility in the eyes of some rumor hungry baseball fans. I don’t think Boras is leaking this to randoms. If Heyman (notorious Boras boot licker) said the Jays had a $250m offer, then it would be more likely to be a Boras leak. This is just some dude throwing s*** at the wall. If he’s right, then he can make up another rumor 12 months from now that gets engagement. Rinse and repeat.