glory

Yup, the 2021-23 competitive window could have been much better had they sold assets in July 2017 rather than waiting a year or two like they did and getting practically nothing. I have no faith in them to do it, but it’s sort of a no brainer from a baseball standpoint. Rogers may not agree from a business standpoint but on the other hand telling them they can field a 65-70 win team with a $100m payroll instead of a 75 win team with a $240m (or whatever it is now) payroll might be somewhat convincing.

On the bright side, the Jays not playing Orelvis due to a suspension is less embarrassing than not playing him so they can get Springer and Kiermaier into the lineup.

All you can do is laugh at this point.

The Jays are either low key tanking or they actually think this is their best lineup. Hopefully it's the former, but the latter seems more likely given this team's recent history. We were fooled by Atkins' dorkiness. He is not a nerd. Old school to the core.

Springer batting clean up today. Save us, Ed Rogers.

Losing sucks, but this team stinks and has a front office that has more incentive to go for it then take a step back. Losing, and losing a lot, in 2024 is probably the best thing to happen to the team at this point. They aren't good enough to go on a run, so the further they get in the standings from a playoff spot, the more likely they will react logically at the deadline. At least that's the way I'm trying to rationalize this s***.

Berrios contract: 2027-28 salaries may increase up to $5M each season: $1M each for 300, 350 combined innings pitched in 2025-26 $500,000 each for 375, 400 combined IP in 2025-26 $2M each for Cy Young award in 2025 or 2026 $1.5M each for second-fifth place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote $750,000 each for sixth-10th place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote There's a good chance those player options will be for more than $24m per. I doubt any team expects him to opt out, including the Jays if they were being honest with themselves. If you just want to dump the contract, then maybe there's a team desperate enough to do it, but I don't see it. The contract is not team friendly at all aside from a reasonable AAV in 2025-26. Stroman is a similar valued pitcher (~3 WAR innings eater) and when he hit the market at age 32, he got 2/37. Berrios would have to be a Cy Young contender in 2026 for him to opt out. Maybe he will surprise and be one, but not a risk I'd take if I were a team trading for him. He'd likely provide more value to the Jays than he would in a trade at this point, but depends on what the team's goals are. Ultimately, I expect Kikuchi traded and no one else. Only exception would be if they replace Atkins and the new GM is given free autonomy to do what he wants. Then maybe it's more realistic to see other SPs moved.

It’s not about wanting to keep him as much as what makes sense for a team that won’t rebuild and won’t get anything meaningful in return for him. If you’re trading Gausman and Berrios, then there’s no shot this team is good in 2025, which is fine with me but probably not fine with the decision makers. So you trade the guy who is going to fetch the most value in return (Gausman) and hold the one who is less likely to bring a haul back in a trade and use him to eat up innings. It’s possible I’m underselling Berrios’ trade value but I don’t think I am. Those two player options amount to nearly $50m over 2 years, and that’s two years from now. I really don’t see a team taking that contract, much less giving up high value for it, but maybe I’m wrong.

I’d keep Berrios and Bassitt only to eat up innings. Those two if nothing else are durable, and I don’t think you’d get a haul for either one of them. Of course if a team gives up something good for Berrios you do it but those two player options on the back end of that deal don’t seem very team friendly. Gausman is a different story. Maybe a team won’t give up an ace return for him anymore but even something a little below that would be worth pursuing. That might be the most sensible compromise for the team that clearly will not bottom out. They can use the $20m+ on another SP in the winter plus whatever prospects they get back to help the team try to contend in 2025. It won’t happen (Kikuchi is probably the only SP they even consider trading next month) but it’s a good idea.

When he's trading a prospect for a veteran, he's good. When he's trading a veteran for a prospect, that's when it gets dicey.

As long as Shapiro is employed by this team, it will be Level 1. Trade all the impending FAs, slide back under the luxury tax to reset the penalties, and try again in 2025. As others have said that may not even be the worst thing to do with the expanded playoff format, but they would just be delaying the inevitable. Unless Atkins can get massive hauls for Kikuchi, Jansen, Garcia, etc. I'm not holding my breath on that.

The problem is he only has 1.5 years of control left, and there's no guarantee that he ever bounces back to what he was. I know that's crazy to say about someone his age, but his offensive profile is incredibly volatile. He doesn't draw walks and relies a lot on BABIP/contact. Players like that can fall off unexpectedly. Maybe this is just an extended cold stretch for Bo and only a matter of time before he bounces back, but I wouldn't be against trading him now depending on the return. The extra year of control, especially if the acquiring team thinks they can fix him, is probably enough to not get a completely s***** offer, if not a good one. The biggest reason to hold on to Bo is you don't want Atkins being the one trading him. Otherwise I'd have no issues with it.

6.5 back of WC3 (counting H2H tiebreaker) and 4.5 behind the Red Sox who they are 0-3 against so far. The 3rd WC does create an avenue for more teams to be buyers than sellers, but I can't imagine the Jays are that delusional to think they are close. The rest of June should make it crystal clear to them if they are still not convinced. Rogers wanting to make major moves for a retool, is that speculation or do you know something? Trading the impending FAs is definitely going to happen if they are out of it, but major moves would imply bigger fish (Bo, Vlad). Hopefully Rogers is ok with at least a partial rebuild. Shapiro would have you believe that they were the reason the rebuild happened in 2019 instead of 2017. We will see if that's the case this time around. Tearing down a beloved team (2015-16) versus tearing down a team most fans can't stand are two different things.

John Schneider trying to tank for the good of the franchise.

Jansen with an 80 wRC+ and .092 ISO in his last 101 plate appearances. He's still pulling the ball and hitting it in the air, so I don't think he's been corrupted yet, but shows how great of a start he had given how he's looked over his last 100 PA.

That's what makes this so frustrating. The guys making the decisions have 1-2 years left on their deals (Shapiro and Atkins respectively). They have no incentive to do anything except go for it in 2025. And if by some chance the FO is smart enough to start trading away some bigger pieces (Bo, etc), that means we'd have to trust Atkins to trade veterans for prospects, which is the biggest weakness he has (player development in general). There's no right answer and nothing to root for that has any tangible benefit to the fans other than hoping it only takes 81 wins to get the 3rd WC and hoping the Jays offense can hit the best pitching staff in the league (Seattle) in a wild card round. John Schneider can make things a bit more interesting for us by playing the Buffalo crew and just living with the consequences, but that's not how they want to operate. Sadly it only gets worse as Votto is close to coming back, and JS probably salivating at the thought of putting him into the lineup.

The Jays have only made the playoffs 4 times in 30 years (or 5 if you want to count 2020 when like 25 teams made it in), so as Jays fans we have to appreciate any playoff appearances we can get, but this team isn't it and this front office if it gets to put any more of their fingerprints on this organization is going to dig a hole much deeper than they already have. I'm ok with 2024 going to s*** if it means real change happens afterwards. If that means no 82 win WC3 berth this year, then I'm sure we will get over it. I'm with you man, I legit hate everything about this team except the Buffalo crew who hopefully keep listening to Hague rather than the alternatives.

So they don't want to ride the hot hand (Clement), play the best hitting prospect in the org (Orelvis), or play the best player on the team since Aug 1 of last season (DS who has a 3.1 WAR since then, Varsho at 3.2 so close enough, but DS clearly with the highest wRC+ over that span). All so Springer, KK, and Turner can be in the lineup. At least Turner is heating up, so I get that, but no reason for KK or Springer to be in the lineup, and could have easily put Clement at short over IKF for a game. Ed Rogers is the only one who can save us at this point (replacing Shatkins), and that's a terrifying reality.

"If we were running this team without a fan base, we probably would've started a rebuild a year ago. We're trying to remain competitive for those fans." - Mark Shapiro after the 2017 season. He said that 7 years ago with a core he inherited. Now he's in that same spot with a core he built. I think we know how the trade deadline is going to go, sadly.

Yeah by no means did pinch hitting Springer for Barger decide the game, it was just a poor decision by a manager/coaching staff. The issues are definitely way deeper than that. They are now 5.5 back of WC3 (really 6.5 since they lost the tiebreaker to the Royals who hold that spot now). Asking this team to go on a huge 2nd half run despite a bottom 10 run differential in baseball, a horrid pen due to injuries, and an offense that can’t hit home runs is asking a lot.

Big comeback by the Dodgers.

This team trying to balance playing time between vets and young players when the vets are consistently playing like ass but always getting the benefit of the doubt is laughable. At least Turner is turning things around. Springer pinch hitting for Barger was a joke. Barger apparently hit a HR against this pitcher in the minors (which Dan brought up while Springer was on deck!), and Barger doesn’t have any split issues with LHP while Springer has a wRC+ in the 30’s against them this season. If that’s how JS wants to manage (or is being told to manage) then this team is in trouble.

Dan and Buck talking about how Barger homered against that same pitcher in the minors got a laugh out of me. Barger hit LHP well in the minors and Springer hasn't hit anybody this season but especially LHP. Not hindsight at all. Predictable move by this org but not the right one, and I'd say the same thing if Barger grounded into a DP.

George Springer and his 37 wRC+ against LHP coming in to pinch hit.

Little has been decent in small sample.