glory

Loperfido now has a 103 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR in 62 PA since the trade. I haven’t been paying much attention as I was on vacation this past week but he must be on some sort of heater because dude was striking out practically every time he had a bat in his hand a few weeks ago. Would be nice if he developed into something.

Judge has a real shot at 500 home runs which is nuts since he started his career at 25. He is a peak HOF’er but the counting stats were always the question due to when he came up. Let’s see where he ends up by the end of his contract. Still has 7 years left.

Francis developing into a capable back of the rotation starter would be a great outcome during this lost season. Need to see this over an extended sample though.

Presumed Innocent was a good series. Not sure that’s worth getting an Apple TV sub but I’d recommend the show itself.

I don’t think we have to worry about the Jays going on a run to .500. The bullpen is complete ass, they’ll lose a lot of winnable games down the stretch for that reason alone. With that said, getting the first pick in a year where there is a potential difference maker (Holliday) would definitely change the complexion of the org. The lottery will end up helping the Jays on that end since they don’t have to out tank anyone to have a shot at it. Would be amazing if the Jays actually succeeded at building a 2025 playoff team and ended up with the #1 pick at the same time. We can dream.

If Horwitz is a 115-120 wRC+ bat, then I think you can live with him at 1B/DH primarily. The one position you can envision the Jays being able to cobble together above average production internally is 2B (Wagner, Orelvis, DS, Jimenez, etc). They can’t do that anywhere else unfortunately. If they were set everywhere else and just needed a 2B, then yes I think Horwitz at 2B would be the right call. It may be the right call regardless (no guarantee that Wagner and others are any good), but given the team’s needs, intentions (contending), and resources, they might be better off at least initially with Horwitz as more of a 1B/DH/2B hybrid and investing in LF, 3B, rotation, etc. If they decide that they want to invest in a DH like Santander or something, then Horwitz at 2B becomes the best option, but you could argue that’s not the best use of whatever payroll wiggle room they will have.

I thought the Jays had a very good deadline all things considered but man it says a lot about the farm when the returns for a bunch of rentals were able to shoot up the team’s prospect rankings, and justifiably so.

They are going to have to trust at least a couple of young players to fill those holes next season. They simply can’t fill all of them externally. Best bet based on performance, age, and nepotism is Horwitz at DH and Wagner at 2B. If you assume those two spots are filled then you would turn your attention to LF, 3B, and catcher on the position player end. It’s harder to do that on the pitching side since they don’t have any young players who can fill those spots. Maybe Bloss but he probably needs more minor league seasoning. At least Francis is going to get a good look the rest of the way. Maybe they get lucky with him.

Shapiro's job might be safe based on how Rogers has operated recently, but as far as letting a lame duck sacrifice the future, Rogers has already done that once. They were tampering to find a replacement for Beeston/AA prior to 2015, and still allowed AA to sign Martin, trade for Tulo, etc. I don't think they'd get in Shapiro's way if he were to make some big signings this winter, as long as it fits the agreed upon payroll. With that said, Shapiro and AA are very different. I think Shapiro whether his job is safe or not will still err on the side of caution to some degree with big moves. I don't think he's taking back a Tulo contract just to get as many 2025 wins as possible and not caring about the 5 years after that, for example. Luckily the Jays system is still kinda ass even after a solid trade deadline so I don't think they'd miss anyone if they were to trade them. Maybe Nimmala, but that's it.

One thing the front office seemed reluctant to do the past few years was to sign anyone beyond 2025-26. Even last season when they were dying for offensive upgrades they went with 1 year deals or a relatively cheap 2 year deal for IKF. I doubt they'll realistically be able to fill holes this winter via free agency without accepting a 3-4 (or more) year deal for someone, possibly more than 1 player. It will be interesting to see the types of deals they sign. A front office with job security may be fine with getting the best 1 year deals they can find and then pivoting at the deadline if/when that doesn't work, but a front office that is fighting for their jobs might have different plans. The one thing the Jays really need is impact talent. This past off season was universally considered s*** because there was practically no upside to it, and the floor wasn't even that high (KK/Turner/IKF/Vogelbach). It was just short term 1 WAR filler. If that's their plan for 2025 then they might as well start their sell off in December rather than next July. If they are going to go 2015 AA, then aim as high as possible.

I also threw up a bit reading this but I don’t think there’s any chance they actually go through with a young lineup in 2025. Maybe if they are out of it in July, but definitely not to start the season. Only young player I see having an everyday role on the 2025 team is probably Horwitz, and possibly Wagner given that he’s 35 years old already. Jimenez is out of options so he’s either a bench piece or traded. My guess is they are either going to go for a home run signing, or more likely “spread the risk” with some mid tier guys like Santander. Given how much Shatkins loves depth, it wouldn’t surprise me if everyone who has options start in AAA.

Would love to see the Jays find a way to trade for Walker and put him back at 3B. He’s a horrid OF and the only other spot that might open up for him in STL is 1B with Goldschmidt a free agent. Maybe that’s their plan. I doubt the Cardinals would sell so low.

I’d be surprised if the AAV for Soto isn’t $50M. He’s a 25 year old free agent with a HOF track record already. He’s not taking less AAV than Scherzer, Verlander, etc, and with deferrals factored in Ohtani’s AAV is in the high 40’s I believe so he will try (and succeed) at clearing that given his age. Factor in Steve Cohen in the bidding and it’s going to be monster contract. I’d have no issues with the Jays signing and extending Soto and Vlad. If you’re going for stars and scrubs, then those two (assuming Vlad is fixed moving forward) are the guys to do it with. Hell the Jays actually have possible league average-ish position player depth in AAA/MLB. Between Horwitz, Jimenez, DS, Barger, Clase, Orelvis, Roden, Wagner, Loperfido, etc, you could probably find some combination that could work around Soto and Vlad. It’s just a question of whether Rogers is willing to do something like 12/600 for Soto and 11/350 for Vlad (just spitballing). That’s kinda a lot of money. I’d have no problem doing that and then having to move other pieces to save money, but it’s hard enough envisioning that type of investment from any ownership (Rogers or otherwise), much less convincing Soto to choose a last place team over both NY teams and likely the Dodgers too.

If Rogers is willing to commit a billion dollars to two players, then I'm down. It won't happen, but we can dream. At least extending Vlad is realistic. If the Jays outbid NYY/NYM/LAD for Soto, then Atkins or whoever is in charge this winter is a damn magician.

Anyone who thinks Vlad isn’t getting at least $300m if he’s putting up 2021 numbers is going to be disappointed.

I'm not sure what happened or is happening behind the scenes, but if Shapiro intended to give Click the job, then Click could have been running things at the deadline anyway with Atkins as more of a figurehead until the end of the season. Something similar probably happened during the JPR to AA transition in 2009, though I have no idea if it did or not.

My guess is he will, especially if he’s maintaining this level of performance. Obviously historically 1B are usually not given these massive contracts but I think Vlad will be one of the exceptions. Whether the Jays are the ones who give it to him is the bigger question. I would have been fine trading him this past deadline but since they didn’t and they intend to keep him for 2025, then I’m fully on the extend him train. I think I’m partially on that train because watching the Buffalo boys at the big league level and seeing just how average they look across the board makes me want to just extend any elite talent the team already has, and Vlad is the only one.

6 WAR Vlad would make the 2025 Hail Mary a bit more realistic at least, especially if coupled with a bounce back from Bo. With his track record we can’t assume he will still be this guy next season, but with free agency looming, motivation shouldn’t be an issue. This does feel a little like the Devers situation in Boston. He got a big extension the off season before his walk year after Bloom was getting roasted by fans/media for other decisions (mainly Betts).

Also a new GM would have to try to win with another GM’s core (coming off a last place finish) on a one year window. No chance a top candidate takes this job. Maybe the job becomes more attractive after 2025 if/when they concede to a bit of a retool/rebuild. Of course they could also squeak into a playoff spot and we have Shatkins for another half decade.

Even if he were having a typical Bo season, he wouldn’t be a long term candidate for me. Aside from the fact that he’s likely salivating to test free agency, he has a very risky offensive profile that won’t age well and he probably shouldn’t be a SS (certainly won’t be for much longer if his lower body injuries continue). Given what the front office’s goal is (winning in 2025), might as well keep Bichette and hope the allure of free agency leads to a big year. After that, let him be someone else’s unmovable contract.

Shapiro's deal ends after 2025. If he hasn't committed beyond that, then allowing a lame duck team president to appoint a new GM would be a bad decision by Rogers. At this rate it's probably better to just let Atkins have one more season, and if it fails, then dump both of them and start the rebuild/retool/whatever with new people. Unfortunately, this probably means John Schneider sticks around too. At this point I'd be pretty surprised if Vlad doesn't go to free agency. I can't imagine Shapiro if he has one foot out the door is going to prioritize giving him a 10-12 year deal, or whatever it will take to sign him. The focus will be entirely on maximizing 2025 wins.

John Schneider licking his chops over getting to bench a young player for Votto.

The FA 3B options look pretty dire again. Not a fan of overpaying Bregman for his age 31-beyond seasons, and a reunion with Chapman doesn't move the needle much given what he will be looking for. Only option that looks somewhat interesting is a bought out Yoan Moncada (no shot the White Sox pick up his option), as he's coming off an injury so he should take a one year deal but he's a few years removed from the last time he was really good. Otherwise at this rate I'd probably be fine with putting Vlad at 3B and living with the consequences. Horwitz can be at 1B and then there's like a half dozen 2B options on this team where you can hope on one of them sticking (DS, Orelvis, Wagner, Jimenez, Clement, etc).

I'll give them a pass for 2023 even without the benefit of hindsight because if I'm remembering correctly they signed KK first, and then made the Varsho trade later. Once they already signed KK it would have been useless to play him anywhere other than CF, so they just went with Varsho in LF for a season. If they left it at that and went a different direction in 2024, then I would have been fine with that. Putting Varsho in LF again in 2024 was insanity. If they traded for Luis Robert and put Varsho in LF, then fine, but running it back with KK when there was next to no shot he was repeating 2023's offensive output is completely on the org.

One thing I’ll say about the trade is that it’s not Varsho’s fault that they traded for an elite defensive CF with shoddy expected offensive numbers and put him in LF for 2 years and also batted him high in the order as if he were a middle of the order bat. If they had Varsho in CF for the past two years and someone like Teoscar (or whoever) in LF that could provide power/offense, then we wouldn’t be complaining about this deal as much. I think the trade was a “bust” in the sense that trading a top prospect for a LH Pillar is probably not the outcome the team was looking for (or needed) but from a pure value standpoint it’s probably a marginal loss. Really depends on what other offers they had for Moreno or the other catchers to know if any value was lost in a trade but we will never know.